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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You could just as easily say that the common sense should be applied to the fact that Brady played terribly by his standards, which Tannehill played no role in causing, and that Tannehill had a very poor game, and so the view that Tannehill “beat” Brady and the Patriots is absurd.

    Your view of the game would make complete sense if Brady had one of his customary games, and Tannehill outplayed him. But that kind of game resides in a different galaxy from what actually happened.
     
  2. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Definitely had its own identity. Looked to me, in this one in particular, both teams had a VERY strict game plan going in, and both stuck to it like glue, to the end. It was ground troops locked in a dirty, fierce battle on infantry lines, with no air support. Both teams (coaches) believed the game was in a manageable state throughout according to their plan, so they didn't have reason to stray from it...up until the last minute. Getting into the late minutes in the game, both defenses had played a stellar game...both teams shutout in the 2nd half. One team just happened to make one more play than the other, and I put it on the 3rd and 8 to Firkser. Since the first drive, they'd shut Tannehill down, as he was their #1 priority to "take away" from the other team. THAT was the play that clinched the game, essentially (the punt to the 1 was no joke either), the pick-6 was icing. I mean, its possible NE could've driven 70 yards in 20 seconds, but not likely with how Brady and his targets were playing, and how the Titans D was playing. The amount of discipline showed in that game was amazing, from the coaches on down. I credit Vrabel with having the guts to stick to his guns, in the hardest place to win in the league, and following it through. Coaches win games too.

    Fun fact: That idea Belichick came up with a few weeks ago, the burn clock using back-to-back intentional penalties before a punt thing, that Vrabel flipped and used on HIM in this game, was karma at its finest. Now, Belichick is publicly saying the rule should be changed.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2020
  3. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Why are we ignoring the fact that the weather was poor for the passing game to begin with?
     
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  4. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    you know why. It doesn’t fit the narrative
     
  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The weather's being poor doesn't tell you what would've happened had the weather been good. It's not like you can make a "weather adjustment" and determine that, had the weather been good, Tannehill would've had a passer rating of 130 and outperformed Brady's passer rating of 115, thus definitively beating Brady and the Patriots in the playoffs in New England.

    So what exactly does the weather's being poor allow you to determine or conclude?
     
  6. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    One thing I have to ping Tannehill on, if I'm correct in my assumptions, was his mental lapses (two).

    He must have been very frustrated, going from making a few nice passes and a solid TD throw on their first drive, to basically handing the ball off all game and NE's defense shutting their normal passing offense down, and when he throws a few dimes and the Cheaters commit a PI on the play, doesn't get called (multiple). I think his frustration and anxiousness got to him on that INT play. And I think his anxiousness got the better of him on that play where he fumbled the snap. My take on that play, is that they had a coverage they wanted and a play dialed up that he was very confident in, and it required a quick-snap-pivot-throw type of play, and he rushed it, causing the fumble. Much like a receiver turning his head up field before securing the catch, and dropping it (which also happened a few times on both sides, Superman Edelman included).

    If you watch Tannehill closely, you'll see he has a lot more fire than he gets credit for. He gets very angry and frustrated, but doesn't ever let it out publicly in his words. He's gotta maintain that cool in that situation...can't let that give the game away, which it easily could have because of those 2 plays.
     
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  7. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    exactly. That game was a one score game the entire way. Both coaches could stick with plan a. The game was always in reach.

    that said I think the pats should have shifted to that 6 man front earlier. Before they did the off ball lb level was getting moved off and catching more than meeting in other words.

    But I’m sure there was a feeling out process from the pats in terms of trying to stop the run one way and pivoting later to something else but I just think it came a little late.

    didn’t help tha I saw Jamie Collins on the sideline a lot. Not sure if that was a team benching or what but the final first down the titans gained with Henry the lb 51 who was replacing Collins has to contain that and make the space tackle at the second level. He didn’t and I think Collins range would have made up for it. Instead that was all she wrote ball game.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2020
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  8. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    You're joking right?

    Even when I dobt agree you're generally logical but this perspective makes no sense to me.
     
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  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    How is it not logical to say that the weather's being poor gives you absolutely zero information about what would've happened had the weather been good?
     
  10. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I think on tbe fumble it was either an rpo or a zone read. I’m guessing zone read cause the rpo would be based on box count. Hard to tell though cause Henry didn’t carry out any action he went immediately for the ball to ground post snap. I probably should look at what the skill guys outside were doing. Stalk blocking or getting into route etc.
     
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  11. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And like I said before...most of Tannehill's best plays didn't show up in his stat line. Anybody remember the throw he made to Davis in the endzone that was cancelled due to off-setting penalties (Davis stepped out then back in), that Davis dropped quick 'cuz he knew he'd stepped out? Tannehill saw the pressure, rolled out too his right to avoid it and made a perfect throw on the run with a defender getting close.

     
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  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Here's an example of when a team went into New England in the playoffs and the opposing quarterback had a far more significant hand in beating Tom Brady and the Patriots:

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201101160nwe.htm

    Brady was 29 for 45 for 299 yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 2 TDs, and 1 INT, for a passer rating of 89, which was nearly five points above the league average that year.

    The opposing quarterback was 16 for 25 for 194 yards, 7.8 yards per attempt, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs, for a passer rating of 127.3, which was 43 points above the league average that year.

    The Patriots lost 28-21.

    There is little if any comparison between that opposing quarterback's performance and Tannehill's the other day.
     
  13. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    LOL

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The question "how many quarterbacks have been associated with a win in New England in the playoffs?" is certainly a different question than "did Ryan Tannehill play well Saturday night?"

    If you want to ask the former question, then certainly an alternative narrative can be built around that. But realize the question "did Ryan Tannehill play well Saturday night" isn't being answered in that event.
     
  15. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I think it’s more about the weather effecting the passing game or maybe even the calls in terms of how much the titans passed the ball. Maybe not.

    I will say I went in thinking Brady might be nursing something but I didn’t see evidence of it he threw a 65 air yard dart with barely any hitch at one point and I was like yeah that arm looks fine to me. Wasn’t completed but the ball had a lot on it
     
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  16. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Folks, the issue here is that Ryan Tannehill still has some sentimental value among the Dolphins fanbase, and so the fact that he didn't play well Saturday night doesn't jibe with the script people envisioned playing out for him and us in that game. We wanted Tannehill to go in there and kick Brady and the Patriots' asses himself, but that didn't happen.

    Consequently we have to "rewrite the script" and come up with something that allows Tannehill to provide a similar sentimental value to us. The rewritten script entails the view that Tannehill is now just one of a few QBs who've been on a winning team against New England in the playoffs.

    That's sure fine, but realize that "alternative script" says nothing about whether Ryan Tannehill has the ability to play in a way that's associated with winning in the playoffs at the quarterback position. That's never happened, and it didn't happen the other night.

    I trust the intelligent folks on the board here will be able to do a much better job of looking at Tannehill's performance objectively next week, when he isn't playing an opponent that is associated with so much historical baggage.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2020
  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Didn't seem to lack strength in the hail Mary he threw either.
     
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  18. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    That's not the illogical part.

    The illogical part is pretending like it doesnt exist and comparing it to normal conditions you know arent the same.

    If I didnt know how gravity worked I still wouldnt jump from a high place and pretend it doesnt exist because I know from experience things fall.

    In the same way we know from general experience that in conditions like that passing games do suffer.

    There is definitely a way for you to look at it statistically and measure the impact, youd just need a lot of game time weather reports from history and to classify them by severity as well most likely. It sounds like a massive P.I.A honestly lol

    Not being able to measure an effect doesnt mean you can just ignore it.
     
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  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Here's an article on it:

    https://towardsdatascience.com/foot...of-weather-on-nfl-qb-performance-f0edb420623d
     
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  20. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    This is another example of the limitations of statistics where human factors and other random uncontrollable factors have significant impact. SO much data would have to be available for something like this to even determine a high confidence probability, I'd think...and would have to include weather data as it changes throughout the games...that would have to be a MASSIVE undertaking.

    Edit: We LOVED playing football, growing up, in those same conditions as this last game...but we weren't the precision NFL lol.
     
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Nice. So this Josh Mancuso is the opposite of that Connor Wolf guy I commented on earlier: his post increases his chances of being hired:
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/titans-to-start-ryan-tannehill.94693/page-72#post-3239034

    Basically he's showing he can do the coding side of data mining, and those jobs pay well. He's a bit deficient in statistical analysis though because he didn't know how to do comparisons across groups, but that can be learned.

    From a football analysis perspective, one thing he's missing is correlations to win% to see which stats matter more (he cares too much about volume stats and fantasy points lol). But the data is useful. So to a rough approximation you can expect 5-10% decrease in passer rating from inclement weather apparently.
     
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  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    And what decrease can you expect in inclement weather when your RB produces over 200 all-purpose yards? We know from that stat alone that when a team has a rusher for 170+ yards, they're usually the winning team. This is a Henry conversation more than anything.
     
  23. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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  24. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah it may be counter-intuitive, but rushing stats of all kinds tend not to correlate well with passing efficiency. Over NFL history (and when I say that I mean SB era) the correlation between rushing Y/A and passer rating is 0.1526, so only 2.33% of the variance in passer rating is due to rushing efficiency. For rushing yards the correlation is 0.2 so only 4% of the variance in passer rating is due to that.

    And of course for all these correlations we're talking about averages, not something that's necessarily correct for a specific game.

    In any case, note that you generally don't want to compare rushing yards with passer rating for a different reason: the primary difference in rushing yards between winning and losing teams is due to the 4th quarter when the winning team tries to run out the clock, which is a confounding variable. So if you want to use rushing yards you'd want to look at rushing yards ONLY in quarters 1-3. Otherwise, both passer rating and rushing yards will be influenced by the same confounding factor: point differential.

    Having said all this, don't forget that single game stats are highly unreliable statistically for drawing any conclusions. There's a reason I say don't even quote or use passer rating until you have 150+ consecutive passing attempts. So I'd caution about using ANY single game stat to draw conclusions. Stats are good for identifying trends, not single game analysis.
     
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  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Do you mean unreliable for drawing any conclusions of any kind?
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I mean most conclusions based on a single game stat that people here seem to be interested in where the goal is to estimate the probability of that stat occurring based on historical data. For such conclusions, tiny sample size leads to such huge confidence intervals that almost every hypothesis people might be interested in will lie within those confidence intervals. This in turn means the statistic can't be used in a hypothesis test to reject that hypothesis.

    As sample size gets larger those confidence intervals get ever smaller, allowing you to do that.

    And of course I'm talking here about most hypotheses people seem to be interested in, not literally any conclusion because you could make such an absurd claim that even small sample size rejects it (e.g., that a 61 rating leads to a win at least 99% of the time could be rejected).
     
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  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    To be fair, Henry wasn't stopped for less than 4 yards a carry until late in the 3rd quarter. He fell once (untouched) for a loss, then they stopped him twice for 0 and 2 yards respectively- those were his only three "average" plays the entire game. Nothing about what we saw the other day has a fair comparison statistically since there hasn't been a RB that dominant for quite some time in the NFL.

    My point had nothing to do with passer rating or historical significance other than saying that when a single player tops 150 yards rushing, he's almost always on the winning team...ESPECIALLY if the bulk of those yards come in the 4th quarter (which wasn't the case with Henry).
     
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  28. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    AND...looking at that still of the video, you can see everybody is well-covered. I'm pretty sure that was the case in a vast majority of the game. BB schemed it very well...as he is apt to do in the post-season particularly.
     
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  29. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Why throw it when he was running all over them. People aren't taking into account that the Patriots had a top ranked defense coming in. It might be a tad harder to throw the ball with the weather conditions and a top defense. Geez you don't need stats to see that.
     
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  30. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree. We've had 3 pages of discussions about what Tannehill's stats mean/don't mean though and I thought it may help to point out the glaring obvious...he wasn't a crucial factor because Tennessee never needed that big passing drive to win. There was no reason to challenge NE's secondary when they clearly couldn't stop the run.
     
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  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Why do you think he didn’t play well?
     
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  32. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    That’s because you have people arguing who don’t understand football.
     
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  33. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    When it comes to Tannehill, the things I've learned in this thread:

    - Football is a team sport if his team wins and is an individual sport if his team loses.
    - 12 good games is not enough to say he's good. 1 game is enough to say he isn't good.
    - Brady elevates the players around him, unless they lose, in which case they take him down with him, while Tannehill, needs a good team to be successful.
    - Stats that show he's good aren't good or complete stats, and stats that show he's not good are super accurate.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2020
  34. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    My biggest argument AGAINST RT in the past was he didn't get us to the playoffs and struggled in December. Of course that was a team effort...not trying to say anything different...but at the end of the day we tend to hold all QB's responsible in those situations.

    However, this season RT got his team to the playoffs (again, not single-handed...but played a major part) and he got his 1st playoff win. I wouldn't care if he posts below average numbers the rest of the way out as long as the Titans keep winning...he's a legit answer as a franchise QB.
     
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  35. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Why is it so important to you to diminish Tannehill's accomplishments?
     
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  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Post of the thread!
     
  37. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    For single game analysis you can review the tape. There is at least one person (not you) posting here that is unwilling to do that.....
     
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  38. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    2 minutes and 5 seconds point is this video, Deion Sanders asks Derrick Henry if he was surprised that the Patriots kept 2 safeties high all night and let him gash them. This is a defense trying to take away the big play passing game and risking giving up runs. This flies in the face of the idea that they weren't concerned about Tannehill and the passing game.

    IMO, the only logical explanation is that they assumed that they would move the ball on the Titans and get a lead to take them out of the running game.
     
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  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The issue at hand is whether Tannehill is capable of playing in a way associated with winning in the playoffs.

    First, your point about his throwing the ball less because of the success of the Titans' running game has no bearing on how well Tannehill plays. He could throw one pass in a game and it could be of very high quality, or he could throw 70 passes in a game and they could all be terrible. Quantity and quality are two different things.

    Second, the Patriots' top-ranked pass defense is a fact of life in playoff football, where the best teams in the league reside. That also has no bearing on whether Tannehill is capable of playing in a way associated with winning in the playoffs, because if he's incapable of that due to something part and parcel of the playoffs (playing against teams with good defenses), then he's nonetheless incapable of playing in a way associated with winning in the playoffs.

    You don't get to the playoffs and then start playing the worst teams in the league. He faces an even tougher test next week, where the opposing team's quarterback is likely to play far better, and the opposing team's pass defense is the second-best in the league. If he plays in that game the way he did Saturday, the Titans are likely to get blown away, regardless of what Derrick Henry does.

    Third, the article above shows that weather has about a 5 to 10% effect on passing performance in the NFL. A 5 to 10% elevation in Tannehill's performance on Saturday gets him nowhere near playing in a way associated with winning.

    So the excuses of Derrick Henry's game, the Patriots' pass defense, and the weather really don't hold water when it comes to whether Tannehill is capable of playing in a way associated with winning in the playoffs.
     
  40. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You ask this AFTER he wins in the playoffs......F me.......
     
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