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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Yet there's still haters who say his play is just a fluke (even though its not significantly better than while he was here) and he hasn't proven anything. Agenda much?
     
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yup.. you're right it would be useful to look at. OK, I'll slowly write that program bit by bit. Let's plan on this being done by sometime next weekend (9 days max). I have to finish writing a grant proposal by next Friday and that will eat up a good deal of time, but I might find time in-between and at worst I can do it right after that.
     
  3. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    You're a damn machine bro.
     
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  4. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    I agree. That defense's numbers I think are padded based on the silly easy schedule they had the 1st 8 games. I would love to see the numbers from the last 9 alone and how they compare to the rest of the league
     
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  5. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    NOT on this site. On this site, you had tons of QB gurus who assured us he was nothing but a bottom tier, backup game manager because of his poor pocket presence
     
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  6. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I'm glad you asked! Here's how the Patriots defense and turnover differential compared between the halves of the season:

    1st Half Defense - 7+ PPG (1st and insane)
    2nd Half Defense - 20+ PPG (12th if full season at that number)

    1st Half T/O Diff: +17 (1st by far)
    1st Half T/O Diff: +4 (8th if full season...Bengals gave them +5 of that alone lol...4 Dalton picks)

    They're still #1 in both stats...because they had such a ridiculous lead from games 1-8.

    Tale of two different defenses really. That first half schedule made them look legendary.
     
  7. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

     
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  8. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Thanks. Just be sure you have an explanation that I can understand please. Like I said before, your charts look like an artillery field impact zone on a battlefield to me lol
     
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  9. Dummuck

    Dummuck Member

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    Simple you already know the great teams because they won the SuperBowl and if you do not realize that football is a team sport in fact more so then any sport then I fell bad for you for you will never completely understand the game..
     
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  10. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    Exactly what I expected.
     
  11. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    Man, 8 pm isn't going to come fast enough. I'm looking forward to this nearly as much as if Miami was in the playoffs tonight!
     
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  12. Dummuck

    Dummuck Member

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    If it was only elite QBs that won the SuperBowl and not the team then Miami would have won many SuperBowls when Dan Mario was the QB for them..The best QB of his time and still the best pure passer there ever was but he also needed a team to win like all QBs..Football is a team sport more so then any sport and noway around it..
     
  13. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    Super Bowl wins are the worst yardstick ever to measure a qb by. It should be viewed as a team thing or a head coach Stat.

    Ultimate team sport.
     
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  14. Dummuck

    Dummuck Member

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    Dan Marino: Hall of Fame class of 2005
    Without question, Marino is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. He played in an age when the passing game took a backseat to the run game, yet his numbers were light years ahead of the competition. Quarterbacks today have only just recently caught up to Marino in terms of touchdown passes and passing yards. Had the Dolphins quarterback won even one Super Bowl, he’d be in the discussion for greatest quarterback ever. Unfortunately, the Hall of Famer lost his only Super Bowl game.
    Jim Kelly: Hall of Fame class of 2002
    It’s a real shame that Kelly is on this list considering he led the Buffalo Bills to four consecutive Super Bowl appearances. Let me say that again. He led the Bills to four consecutive Super Bowl appearances. For a team to even make one Super Bowl, let alone four in a row, is unheard of. Unfortunately for Kelly and the Bills, they never were able to grab that Lombardi Trophy. Had it not been for kicker Scott Norwood, Kelly may have gone one for three in the Super Bowl.

    Warren Moon: Hall of Fame class of 2006
    Moon ranks seventh all time in passing yards, throwing for 49,325 yards during his 17-year career, which also included nine trips to the Pro Bowl. Moon finished his career with 105 wins, including the postseason, but was never able to get that coveted Super Bowl win.
    Fran Tarkenton: Hall of Fame class of 1986
    The former Vikings quarterback may not be remembered by today’s younger generation, but he was ahead of the game during his Hall of Fame career. Tarkenton finished his 18-year career with the Vikings and Giants with 47,003 passing yards and 342 touchdown passes. His passing yard total ranks ninth all time, but he lost all three of his Super Bowl appearances with the Vikings. along with
    Donovan McNabb
    Steve McNair
    Dan Fouts just to name a few QBs that were elite but never won a SuperBowlWhy? Simple,it takes a team to win a SuperBowl no matter how good your QB is ..To think other wise shows the lack of understanding of the game of football..
     
  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This is again an understanding of the point, but in reverse. The point is not that elite QBs are guaranteed to win Super Bowls. The point is that Super Bowls are rarely won without them.
    I've never measured a QB's performance by Super Bowl wins. What I've said is that Super Bowls in recent history have rarely been won by teams without elite QBs.

    The question is, what are the key ingredients in a Super Bowl win? And the answer to that question is, almost always an elite QB. The question is not, how do we measure the greatness of a QB.

    If quarterbacks weren't a key ingredient in Super Bowl wins, the entire league wouldn't be clamoring for them as it does. This is all common knowledge and not some kind of esoteric insight.
     
  16. Dummuck

    Dummuck Member

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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Again you're understanding the point but in reverse. See the post above this one.
     
  18. Dummuck

    Dummuck Member

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    There is already a hall of fame for teams..IT is called the SUPERBOWL...Duh!!!!
     
  19. Dummuck

    Dummuck Member

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  20. Dummuck

    Dummuck Member

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    No one talking about Tannehill now that he is not only winning but the best rated QB in the NFL now,,What happened to all you nah sayers out there earlier ?
     
  21. Dummuck

    Dummuck Member

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  22. Dummuck

    Dummuck Member

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    Actually the conversation started with Tannehill for it is a Tannehill post....LOL..
     
  23. Dummuck

    Dummuck Member

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  24. Dummuck

    Dummuck Member

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    There are QBs now that wouldnt make it back then either..QBs now have it a lot easier then back then and most likely would not only be as good but last due to injuries...
     
  25. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    be careful what you wish for
     
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  26. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Ya I'm nervous about it, only because its in Foxborough in the post-season. Titans have the better team, right now, but that doesn't matter.

    I'm just excited to finally get to see Tannehill in a playoff game.
     
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  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I don't think that's what he meant in "hottest QBs"...I think he means who's really peaking in weeks 15-17. This year Tannehill happens to be that guy in both categories and I really like Tennessee's chances to put a little run together. If that happens though it will be because of their defense stepping up as well.

    I echo the earlier point that 8PM can't get here fast enough!
     
  28. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    That Titans run D better be on their game...I can just see Michel and Burkhead pounding them steady, and that's the worst thing they could let happen.
     
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  29. Dummuck

    Dummuck Member

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  30. Dummuck

    Dummuck Member

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    How Have Recent #1 Overall Draft Pick Quarterbacks Performed in the NFL?
    Published on June 7, 2019 by Connor Wolf Share this on: [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    How Have Recent #1 Overall Draft Pick Quarterbacks Performed in the NFL?
    In the NFL Draft it is becoming almost a certainty that the team with the first overall selection will take a quarterback with their number one pick. Over the last 20 drafts, the first overall pick has been used on a quarterback 14 times, included this year’s when the Arizona Cardinals selected Heisman trophy winner Kyler Murray out of Oklahoma. There is no question as to why these franchises use this most highly valued pick on a quarterback. With the evolution of the NFL becoming a pass-heavy league, it seems vital to have an explosive aerial attack, all starting with your team’s leader behind center.

    However, with so many teams selecting quarterbacks with the first pick in the draft, it raises questions as to the success of taking this route. This article will statistically break down the last ten quarterbacks to be selected first overall in the NFL Draft and hope to answer some questions. How successful have these top-pick quarterbacks been in the league? Should teams keep using their number one picks on QBs? And what should we realistically expect from Kyler Murray’s season and career as an Arizona Cardinal?

    Game Averages
    First, we will look at what an average game is for each of these first overall selected quarterbacks in the NFL. The following table shows a break down of each of these player’s average games as an NFL starter. I used game averages for this table because some of these players never even played a full season.

    [​IMG]

    As we can see above, the statistics are fairly similar amongst these players, with the exception of JaMarcus Russell; however, none of these players truly stand out with overwhelmingly impressive stats. None of these QBs average two or more touchdowns a game, the group being led by Andrew Luck at 1.99. However, it does seem like these QBs are consistent at taking care of the ball, with seven of the ten throwing less than one interception a contest. If we add up each player’s average game stats and divide by the ten players, we can come up with a total average game for the typical first selected QB. It would provide us with the following stat line: 1.49 touchdowns, 0.86 interceptions, and 237.19 passing yards, with a completion percentage of 60.77% and a QB rating of 86.16.

    Season Averages
    To further compare these quarterbacks and how they perform in the league, I made the following table for their season averages. To do so, I just took each player’s game averages and multiplied them by 16. This will provide us with stat lines as to if each QB played their average game for an entire season.

    [​IMG]

    As we can see, seven of these ten QBs would throw for over 20 touchdowns in their average season, with Baker Mayfield and Andrew Luck both eclipsing 30. However, we can also see that all of these QBs would throw for double-digit interceptions in their average season, except for Alex Smith at 9.76. Once again, I took these season averages amongst these QBs and divided by ten to get a typical season stat line. The average season for these players is as follows: 23.82 touchdowns, 13.73 interceptions, and 3,795.06 passing yards. The average completion percentage and QB rating do not change, staying at 60.77% and 86.16, respectively.

    Winning Percentage
    Through observing these statistics, I do not see any glaring evidence as to why or why not a franchise should take a quarterback first overall. The statistics for the average number one pick do not provide evidence that selecting a QB first will guarantee success or failure for the given player; however, does picking a QB first have any correlation with team success? After all, the franchise winning games is what it’s all about, right? The following table shows these ten quarterbacks’ winning percentages in their NFL careers.

    [​IMG]

    As seen above, we do not have strong evidence to conclude that drafting a QB leads to great team success. Only five of the ten have winning records as starters in the league, with only Jared Goff and Andrew Luck winning more than 60% of their games. Additionally, only one of these quarterbacks have reached the ultimate goal of winning a Super Bowl, Eli Manning doing so twice. The average winning percentage among these QBs is a mere 48.48%.

    What to Expect for Kyler Murray
    Bleacherreport.com recently published an article where they predicted Kyler Murray’s stats for his upcoming rookie campaign. They predicted he would throw for 22 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and 3,471 passing yards, with a completion percentage of 61.3% and a QB rating of 85.86. This falls in line with the typical number one selected QB’s season averages I calculated earlier: 23.82 touchdowns, 13.73 interceptions, and 3,795.06 passing yards, with a 60.77% completion percentage and an 86.16 QB rating. Therefore, I also believe that this is a good estimation for what we should expect from Murray this season as a Cardinal.

    To Pick or Not to Pick
    From observing statistical data, I do not believe that there is a clear answer as to whether number one selected QBs excel or underperform in the NFL. However, we can see that drafting a QB first overall does not typically lead to team success, in terms of winning. Therefore, I would suggest that these franchises start using their top picks to select other players more likely to help their team win games, than trying to find the next superstar quarterback.

    Sources
    http://www.nfl.com

    https://www.footballdb.com

    https://bleacherreport.com

    About the Author
    Connor just completed his sophomore year at Purdue University, where he is pursuing a double major in actuarial sciences and applied statistics, with a minor in management. He has had a passion for both sports and statistics since a very young age, and enjoys discovering all the new information statistics can give us about sports. Here is a link to his LinkedIn profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/connor-wolf-bb3775186/.
     
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  31. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Along those lines, one of the better measures of how stable/sustainable you feel Tannehill's performance to be is your expectation of his performance today, given the situation. Do you think you're truly looking at a Mahomes versus Brady or a Brees versus Brady matchup, for example, or do you think you're looking at something different?

    If you think you're looking at something different, you're probably not altogether sold on the stability/sustainability of Tannehill's performance.
     
  32. Dummuck

    Dummuck Member

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  33. Dummuck

    Dummuck Member

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    Ryan Fitzpatrick beat Tom Brady so why cant Tannehill ? I am afraid that Billicheat might know Tannehill too well and use it against him..Fitzpatrick knows how to read the defense extremely well and gets read of the ball fast but can Tannehill?
     
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  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill can certainly perform very well today. The question is whether his recent performance is creating an expectation for his performance that elevates him to the level of another elite QB in the league opposite Brady. Has he really accomplished that in just 10 games?
     
  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I think BB is pretty familiar with Fitz. He played for how long in the AFC East?
     
  36. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    That's crazy how close those predictions were to Kyler Murray's season...and they just based it off of #1 pick QBs. So he didn't have an extra good year, compared to the norm. Surprising.
     
  37. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I've agreed with a lot of what you've said in regards to Tannehill. Being new, you probably don't know that I was one of the BIGGEST defenders of him on this site.

    However, this article isn't very good. They do a decent amount of research, but they are coming to bad conclusions. The problem with any player is not when they are picked, it is the evaluation of their talent. If Russell Wilson was the first round pick, his play wouldn't be different than it is now.

    I think the main problem comes down to a given FO susceptibility to media/fan hype. Often times a team taking a QB in the first either has a new FO or coaching staff or both. Or they've been there awhile and the team isn't very good and are trying to throw a hail mary to save their jobs.

    This is why I actually feel good about Miami right now. They didn't panic for a QB last year, even though had Murray been available I believe they would have grabbed him. And they built quite a bit of draft capital to attack the draft however they want without actually gimping themselves this year or next.

    But in the end, it comes down to the evaluation of the player. if they get that right, we shouldn't give a **** what they gave up to acquire him.
     
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  38. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    titans corner situation is bad and I’m worried about the run d tonight. Is adoree Jackson gonna play?

    and I’m not betting against that’s pats d in the postseason until I see it happen. They gonna work to take away tannehills pre snap primary’s post snap and I’m sure aj brown gets the Gilmore treatment.

    maybe bradys elbow has him errant.
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I think this Connor Wolf is doing himself a massive disfavor by posting stuff like that on the net when he's majoring in applied statistics because those posts show he has absolutely no understanding of statistical analysis. A prospective employer who reads that might be alerted to this fact and not hire him. And even if this is just a snapshot of where he is as a sophomore, at minimum it shows he doesn't care if he understands something before putting his credibility on the line.

    Most obvious issues:
    1) No comparison of stats to the rest of the league (other QB's or draft picks) while making claims about how "good" or "bad" they are.
    2) No calculation of the probability of any of those stats occurring, and no hypothesis testing.

    Really bad. Like trash can bad given that he's studying this stuff. Of course if you look at that linkedin page he's only had two courses on statistics and probability, and while the quality of those courses can vary from college to college, no one at that stage is used to applying statistical analysis on datasets and having to defend their analysis to critique from others. It shows.
     
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  40. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    here you go again. I think tannehills play is absolutely sustainable but I’m no dummy and I know that damn place in tbe postseason has been a house of horrors for qb play.
     

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