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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    No I'm NOT using a "curvilinear relationship" for 2019. That's the whole point. You don't a priori know what that relationship is. And a correlation (if used for calculating "variance explained") assumes linearity so obviously I'm not making any such assumptions.

    Look.. you want to just fit a function to the data with blinders on and ignore population stats. Try this:
    [​IMG]

    There's your "curvilinear" relationship. And it says precisely the opposite of what you're arguing. It says that Tannehill in 2019 gets FAR worse with low-volume than with high-volume and that he's best mid-level volume.

    Of course.. none of this has any credibility because we have tons of data from other QB seasons and it IS a linear relationship for the population (I showed that!) so there is no justification for fitting any such curve like this. Point is though, even IF you fit such a curve your hypothesis fails. And this type of analysis would be "lying with statistics". No other way to put it.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2020
  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Hold on, the relationship between the variables is what it is, regardless of what statistic you've chosen to represent it. The relationship in 2019 is obviously curvilinear, and it doesn't say the opposite of what I'm saying. It says he's capable of playing good and bad with below-average numbers of pass attempts (low-volume), while playing only bad with above-average numbers of pass attempts (high-volume).

    I agree that the relationship for the population, including for Tannehill's previous seasons, is linear. The issue is that his 2019 season isn't linear because his number of pass attempts per game was restricted. Given him a few more games with high numbers of attempts, similar to previously in his career, and we'd likely see the 2019 correlation get just as strong as his career correlation.

    And again his career correlation distinguishes him from the best QBs in the league, and so we come full circle to the point that his performance as a function of pass attempts is different from theirs (not from the league average), despite his very high 2019 overall passer rating.

    In other words, despite his very high overall passer rating, he's nonetheless not playing like one of the league's best QBs in an important way (high-volume passing). And that's the main point.
     
  3. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Guy, IT DOESN'T MATTER if you think he's not playing as well as your "elite" QBs, he still has the stats that he accrued. I live in NH and it's snowing, so I'll use it as an example. Hypothetical snowstorm hits NH and it snows all day every day for 5 days. After 5 days, we get the final snow totals, and it's the biggest snowfall ever. You come in and tell us all we're wrong, based on these stats, the snowfall could have been much more! Further, you tell us that it isn't the biggest snowfall ever, because it happened over 5 days. You found a snowstorm in NH that lasted 3 days, and dumped 1" less than the 5 day storm.
     
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    No you have no evidence of that. To the naked eye that curve looks like a good fit. So? Can you show that the data reject a linear relationship? Nope. Confidence intervals are way too big. You're totally ignoring sample size and random variation when making such claims. This is precisely why you have to leverage population statistics IF you care about figuring out what type of relationship is most valid.

    The advantage of a correlation is you don't have to make that assumption. You only have to make that assumption IF you use the correlation (the actual number) to then infer variance explained. Until then you don't have to even assume linearity.

    So the correlation analysis I provided earlier (without showing the population relation is linear) did so without ANY assumptions about the nature of the data. That's the opposite of cherry picking, either by removing data points or by cherry picking the function fit to the data.
     
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  5. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    As long as you get to cherry pick who he gets compared to. When you compare him to the population, he is better than average.
     
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  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    OK so I'm willing to agree to this: Tannehill's career previous to 2019 distinguishes him from the league's best QBs in terms of his ability to play as well as they do in high-volume passing games. His 2019 season tells us nothing definitive about whether that's changed, despite his very high overall passer rating, and in fact the non-significant (statistically) evidence we have suggests it hasn't.

    That's the technically statistical version of things, while the "eyeballing the data" version (without the benefit of significant statistical testing) supports my point in my opinion.
     
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Aaaaanndddd yet it's still inaccurate. Tell me again why in your view the receivers have nothing to do with these discrepancies?
     
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  8. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Wait a second.. this is misleading. Specifically your use of the phrase "as well as they do" because that implies absolute performance.

    Tannehill prior to 2019 was statistically an average QB, so it doesn't matter what the volume of passing attempts was, his performance in low-volume, mid-volume AND high-volume games was significantly different from that of elite QB's. That has nothing to do with high-volume per se, just that he was pre-2019 an average QB from a production standpoint.

    Now if you want to make a claim like: "Tannehill's ability in high-volume games relative to his own average was significantly different than that of the league's best QB's abilities relative to their own averages", then there's no evidence for that. Once again, post 5033:
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/titans-to-start-ryan-tannehill.94693/page-126#post-3246225

    Removing the 2019 data point (or keeping it in) is still consistent with the league average relationship between rating and attempts.

    You need to change your argument to something very simple: "Statistically there's no evidence YET of Tannehill performing worse than other QB's w.r.t. the relation between passing attempts and passer rating, but that in your opinion we will see such a difference once Tannehill is forced to play many more high volume games".

    The only issue I've had all along is you claiming what you're saying is what valid statistical methodology says. Remove that from the equation so that it's your opinion and you can argue all day long enough me trying to correct something. I mean.. it's not implausible to argue Tannehill probably won't be able to keep up with Mahomes in a shootout. I bet a lot of people would agree with that. But you can't show that based on the statistics we have so far. That's all I'm saying.
     
  9. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    -------------------------------- Thread locked temporarily. ----------------------------

    This thread has been left open because there's a legitimate Dolphins focus in seeing a QB in a different environment and evaluating things - what's more, it's an extremely popular thread if a controversial subject. By and large, the thread has been good with members posting some good quality content.

    HOWEVER

    On multiple occasions I have had to clean up sections of this thread for unacceptable posting and it's starting to feel a bit like...

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    There is one major rule in these forums, and everyone should know what it is - Attack the post not the poster. When you sign up to use the forums you agree to abide by that and the other rules in the TOS.

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    In this thread there have been insults and mocking and personal attacks. It is completely unacceptable.

    If you find that you cannot respond to a post without getting personal, then go take a breather and post later. The world, nor these forums, won't end if don't hit 'Post Reply'.

    Far better to let it go than post personal attacks or insults.

    If you find that there are members with whom you regularly become frustrated you do not have to reply.

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    Ignore them. If you find you need help with that, use the 'Ignore' function to avoid their posts entirely. Whatever the case, however, do not insult anyone or mock them.

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    This thread will remain locked for a short while so that everyone can see this and understand it.

    When it re-opens I do not want to have to come back in here and clean up more posts where members are mocking or insulting other members or getting personal. It will not be tolerated. Repeat offenders will get themselves ejected. If it's multiple offenders then the thread might just get locked.

    [​IMG]

    If you want this thread conversation to continue then it is in your interest to help maintain it and not create or exacerbate any issues.

    Let's handle these things like grown ups.

    Rant over.

    Post well, post often, and Phins Up!
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2020
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  10. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I’ve gone to the trouble of watching every Tannehill drop back in the Carolina and Houston1 games.

    Overall the biggest difference statistically between those 2 games and his other starts is that he had 3 interceptions in 75 drop back. (4% -v- 2.1% on the season). His combined stat line for those 2 games is 49 completions of of 75 attempts for 610 yards, 3TDs and 3 Ints for a passer rating of 87.1.

    On reviewing the tape he had 3 interceptions. The first one against Carolina he hit his receiver in the hands close to the chest, the ball went through the receivers hands into the hands of a nearby defender. The receiver had a step of separation and was NFL open, and the defender guarding the receiver had no impact on the play. You might possible argue that Tannehill threw a fastball when something with more touch was a better choice, at the most Tannehill is maybe 5% responsible for the interception, but 95%+ of the blame for that interception is on the reciever.

    The second interception against Carolina was a bad throw into the arms of a defender. Up until that point Tannehill had shown very good accuracy, so if you wanted to be generous to Tannehill you might argue that the receiver ran a wrong option. But in the absence of evidence I am happy to put 100% of that in RT17.

    The third Int is the one against Houston which hit an open receiver in the hands and he secured the ball then spilled it when hit by a defender. I’m putting 100% of that one on the receiver.

    on review of the other dropbacks I could bot identify and dropped Ints or bad passes that a reasonable NFL defender could have intercepted. I am not an expert on film study so if someone else finds a pass that should have been intercepted but wasn’t they are probably correct. This isn’t a situation when the NFL gods gave with one hand and took away with another, in those 2 game the NFL gods took from Tannehill. He got paid back in other games where defenders dropped should have been Ints, so season long it evens itself out but it is important to review the tape in smaller samples.

    If we adjust the stats to reflect what Tannehill did we end up with a stat line of 51 completions of 75 attempts for 640 (about) yards and 3 TDs and 1 Int. This gives an NFL passer fating of 99.9. Carolina 96.1, Houston1 108.6. It may not be as high as his other games, but the Carolina game in particular the Titans coaches were channelling Joe Philbin/Bill Lazor with abandoning the run and putting Jamil “a literal turnstile blocks better than me” Douglas in the starting lineup. Even so on Tannehill’s performance in throwing the ball he was significantly better than a league average QB in those 2 games.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2020
  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Great work. This is exactly the type of review that is necessary to understand the numbers. As I said before, this is a game that they fell behind by 14 points. I'm sure it is a game that they would like to have back. They were a better team.
     
  12. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Once they found their flow as a team, he did much better, particularly from that Chiefs game onward. Here's how he compared to Marino2 once they were both playing - game 10 on, including playoffs:
    • Tannehill (9 games): 132/198, 1922 yds, 66.7% comp, 9.7 YPA, 19 TD, 3 INT, 123.7 rating (4 rush TDs)
    • Mahomes (8 games): 185/278, 2172 yds, 66.5% comp, 7.8 YPA, 16 TD, 4 INT, 103.3 rating (2 rush TDs)
    So impressive...but all you hear about is Mahomes. Probably because 5 of Mahomes TDs in that total were from ONE game (last week).

    Problem is, the Titans have lulled the media into a false narrative of their offensive capability, because of the two playoff games...coupled with the Chiefs throwing up 50+ on the Texans, nobody thinks Tennessee has a prayer.

    So damn nervous about this game...just like the last two. Almost as bad as if it were the Dolphins playing.
     
  13. mullingan

    mullingan New Grandbaby Pic!!!

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    I live in Tennessee so have always rooted for and watched every Titans game this season. The only time I don't root for the TITANS is when they play my beloved Dolphins. Interestingly, when Ryan was traded, and before the season started, I went to my buddy at work who is a HUGE TITAN fan and said "you watch, Mariota will get hurt and Ryan will come in and save the season. I have watched every game Ryan has played. I appreciate all the stats and stuff posted, and by no means am I a talent evaluator, but I have watched football for most of my 55 years on this earth. RYAN is the real deal to my eye test and I think he has a big game today.
     
  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    That has been mentioned and agreed to several times already by even the most vocal Tannehill supporters.

    His goal isn't simply to say that Tannehill isn't as good as Mahomes. His goal is to claim that having Tannehill as your QB is no different than having an average QB. That is his goal because after this season, he cannot say that Tannehill IS an average QB.
     
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  15. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I feel exactly the same way.
     
  16. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Yes, Belichek does that because defensively because it increases the likelihood of the other team losing. So why is that a good argument for Tennessee to do it willingly?
     
  17. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Absolutely LOVE this post for sooo many reasons!!


    Well done, let's all sit back and hope the Titans can do the unthinkable and get Ryan back to Miami.
     
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  18. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Ryan has been a good fit for the titans, he wasn’t here for whatever reason but I would suggest a stud offensive line, a stout defense, and probably the best running back in the NFL currently is helping him a lot! We had none of this in Miami when he was here. I wasn’t loving Ryan at the end and was ok with the departure.

    I still don’t think we want him back here. We need to build a team good around whoever is out qb. Glad Ryan is getting to showcase his talents and getting some clout, but we need massive improvement before an average QB can look good behind our online.
     
  19. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    /raisehand

    I've said it myself, as have others, for sure.

    But then the argument turns into, "well if you think he's all that, why would you say he wouldn't win a shootout."

    Very disingenuous, and the answer is very simple to anybody who watches the game. If QB skill/ability was the only factor, Dan Marino would've never lost...nor would Mahomes. And nobody's putting Tannehill in those guys' category, but the other side of the argument is holding him to that standard in multiple strawman arguments.

    That KC offense is built around blazing speed, with an elite TE there to provide continuity for the QB, along with a proven pass-catching RB. Tennessee doesn't have that...they're not built to win a shootout. KC's defense is parsley, their offense is the meat and potatoes. Titans are a more well-balanced meal. Very basic concepts that escape some.
     
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  20. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    That's on the assumption KC's stack will work against Henry and the Titans OL. Didn't work for NE or BAL, and they have much better defenses. I can't see Henry going under 150 for the game.
     
  21. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    The argument, I have always made, is that if you have a bad oline, then your QB needs ways to counter that. Either the QB needs to have Wilson's scramble ability, Marino's pocket dancing and quick release ability, or help from the scheme. That required help manifests itself in many ways:

    - a commitment to the run game (not necessarily the success of the run game, but just a commitment to it)

    - allowing the QB to change the call at the line based on the defensive looks

    - short pass concepts similar to NE's bread and butter...

    - play action, designed roll outs

    In Miami, Tannehill had none of that help, until Gase actually, at which point he was allowed to audible, there was commitment to the run game, and Landry was an excellent short range target who could generate YAC. He rocked it until he was injured. Now, he's on a team, giving him help and he's in the AFCCG and he wasn't carried there either.

    No one is arguing he's elite. All that was ever said, with proper help (which lets be honest isn't crazy or extraordinary help, more like a competent staff) he can play at an elite level. Playing at an elite level with solid coaching isn't the same as being elite. Elite QBs can be play an elite level with less help (though they still need some, it is, after all, a team sport).
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2020
  22. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Ya that ship has sailed...straight out of the hurricane and into calmer waters. There's no chance he'd come back now anyway, even if they wanted him.
     
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  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Because the Chiefs are so over-prepared for Henry and committed to controlling the LOS, Tannehill is going to have a field day with those throws right behind the linebackers.
     
  24. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Its a shame because Flores would use him correctly and we'd be perennial contenders because of it.
     
  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I mean, if they don't stack and try to slow down Henry, then give it to Henry all day long and let them suffer the same fate of NE and Baltimore. I'm expecting them to swarm him though and even then, I agree that 150 yards rushing is an attainable goal.

    The part I think everyone is forgetting is that KC is going to score some points and unless Tennessee gets multiple turnovers/stops, Henry alone won't win this ball game. Tannehill is going to have to attack the field and put up some numbers of his own to ensure the win.
     
  26. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Why would they continue to stack the box all quarter if Henry isn’t being utilized?
     
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  27. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Speed vs Power.

    Speed is on KC side, power is on TEN. Who wins? God knows, but it favors KC in todays football... BUT the game has to still be played.

    Cant wait. 5 hours away from kick off. If Tannehill balls this game, the guy is mostly guaranteed if not already A HUGE CONTRACT.
     
  28. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Oh, he'll still get his carries...but it's going to be more of balance today than just the Henry show. Tennessee is going to have KC guessing and when they guess wrong, Tannehill is going vertical.
     
  29. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    SportTrac already has him predicted over $30M per year...if he blows up in this game and they go on to the Super Bowl, holy...

    I don't think he'll push for a max contract through. He wants to keep Henry around, he's said so. I think he'll give a small discount (maybe even slightly larger with the right incentives), to help this off-season's signings...there are some big ones.

    And Henry flat out deserves top RB money.
     
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  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I certainly appreciate your painstaking effort in this Pauly.

    I have a response to the above but out of respect for the forum and its moderator I'm going to wait until after today's game to participate more in the thread in this specific vein, so as to allow the thread to revolve more around other topics about Tannehill and the game. I hope that gives people more of a break from the back-and-forth surrounding my own points and the responses to them.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2020
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  31. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    ^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^
    Like you, I’m not like Brad, using mathematical algorithms to determine a quarterback’s or a teams overall play. My “expertise” comes from the number of years I’ve watched football. I’ve watched enough during my 54 years on this earth, starting with the undefeated season of ‘72 to recognize who is good and who isn’t.

    Griese was a good quarterback
    Marino was a good quarterback
    Fiedler was good quarterback
    Pennington was a good quarterback
    And Ryan Tannehill is a good quarterback

    I don’t need number nor stats nor z-scores nor anything else of the such to recognize talent. Tannehill is the real deal and I couldn’t be happier for him

    Have my Dolphins Tannehill shirt ready to wear for this afternoon’s game
     
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  32. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    KC is going to stack the box. There’s no doubt in my mind about that but that’s going to back fire in them as well when Tannehill rolls out in play action pass and burns KCs secondary with one on one coverage.

    Tannehill’s passes have been laste accurate which if you think about it is truly impressive when he’s not throwing that often. Has anyone ever given thought to how difficult it has to be to get into a rhythm when you’re only throw the ball 19 times a game?
     
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  33. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, they absolutely have to over-commit to stopping Henry and I think that makes it Tanehill's game to win or lose. I mean, maybe Henry powers through like he has the past month and there's no reason to throw that much, but I think it comes down to that scoreboard more than anything and what Mahomes is doing on his drives. If Tenesssee keeps the lead then sure, run all day long...but if they're down 14 early then it needs to be a healthy mix to keep them in this game.

    Two hours and counting folks....two incredibly long freaking hours!
     
  34. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Just using the eye test, I totally disagree on that one. I still remember the anxiety with Fiedler in the playoffs thinking.. "if the Dolphins only had a good QB we'd make it to the SB!"

    Really, those early 2000's teams were wasted in large part because we didn't have a good QB. Fiedler was a liability, not an asset.
     
  35. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Fiedler was a gamer, had no quit in him, and was a motivator...that's about all I got for him. Look up noodle-arm in the dictionary if you can't remember what he looks like...his picture's there.
     
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  36. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It wasn't just Fiedler. Those teams also never met a 3rd and long play they didn't bunk. The defense was good but never consistently excellent.
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah but you can't expect a defense to win the game for you when your offense scores zero points, or just 3 points.

    Fiedler's 3 playoff games were a 23-17 win against Indy, and we all know that was due to Lamar Smith having 209 yards, and then a 0-27 loss against Oakland and a 3-20 loss against Baltimore.

    Our defense was more than good enough for a SB team. It was the offense that was the problem, and there were 2 issues: lack of a RB which we ended up solving for awhile with Ricky Williams, and lack of a QB. Blame falls mostly on the offense for me.
     
  38. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    KC stacked the box 25% of the time last go-around - predictably that strategy miserably failed. It will be interesting to see what they choose to do today at the LOS.
     
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  39. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Stacking the box is a huge mistake. Ask Belichick
     
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  40. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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