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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    It's not really a statistical analysis until you can calculate the probability of an event (or likelihood of a hypothesis). So let's do that here.

    First of all, you need to either adjust all ratings before combining them and then calculate the correlation OR calculate the correlation each year without adjustment and then take the average. If you don't do that you'll just be picking up passer rating inflation. Best method is calculate correlation each year (with no adjustments) and then take the average.

    For Tannehill in Miami the average correlation between passing attempts and passer rating was -0.2358, and in Tennessee it's -0.0893.

    Those aren't directly comparable numbers however because the one from Miami was over 6 years while in Tennessee it's 1 year, so we have to adjust for sample size. I'll show how to do that in a moment.

    First, we need to know the distribution of such correlations. So let's look at the correlation between passing attempts and passer rating for every QB season where that QB threw 150+ passing attempts, from 1978 because the nature of the game changed from 1978. The mean correlation is -0.092 and the standard deviation is 0.332.

    Now.. you can't just look at +-2 standard deviations from the mean here because we took the mean over 6 years in Miami. That means the standard deviation has to be adjusted to 0.332/sqrt(6) = 0.1355. So the question is whether Tannehill's average correlation over 6 years is outside of the interval (-0.092-2*0.1355, -0.092+2*0.1355) = (-0.363, 0.179). And Tannehill's -0.2358 is within that interval.

    So when you actually do the statistical analysis (well.. now it's a hypothesis test) you find that even in Miami Tannehill's correlation between passing attempts and passer rating is NOT significant. In other words it can be explained by random variation alone.

    That really should settle this issue from a statistical point of view. Not only in Tennessee is Tannehill's correlation between passing attempts and passer rating not significant, it wasn't in Miami either.
     
  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Appreciate your work as always, but an issue with the above (if I'm understanding it correctly) is that you're using the correlations between pass attempts and passer rating on a season-by-season basis?

    If so, that's an issue because the statistics show that Tannehill exhibits a far greater decrement in passer rating than do the top QBs in the league in high-volume games.

    In other words, when Tannehill is asked to do what Lamar Jackson was asked to do last weekend (have a high-volume passing game), then like Jackson's last weekend, Tannehill's performance deteriorates (on average of course, not every time).
     
  3. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah don't get confused by the "season-by-season" approach here. We could either adjust all game-by-game ratings to a common year and then combine, or not adjust and calculate the game-by-game correlation for each season separately and then average. The latter approach is slightly better for technical reasons which we can go into if you're interested.

    Both approaches directly estimate the strength of the relationship between game-by-game passing attempts and game-by-game passer ratings and thus directly address the claim you made about a possible decrement in passer rating with an increase in passing attempts. You can't just look at high-volume games to see if there's a decrement, you have to look at all games (or as many as possible). So this approach directly addresses your claim and shows it's false.

    I will however agree that Tannehill was worse than average in high-volume games while in Miami. He was 1.06 standard deviations below the mean, but remember this was NOT statistically significant. However in Tennessee he's at league average. And you can't use what he did in Miami for 2019 because we already know his ratings in Tennessee are statistically significant relative to Miami.

    So there's no real loophole here.
     
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  4. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Don't know WHO Chris Mueller is...not know "what" the "Yardbarker" is, just saw the article on my homepage. I tried to cope and paste a few snippets but for some reason, the page won't allow me to highlight and copy, so I'll just highlight a few things in the article and provide the link.

    The author points out that Derrick Henry is the first running back in NFL history to rush for more than 180 yards in 3 straight games. The Chiefs couldn't stop him during their regular season match up, 23 carries for 188 yards and sees no reason why they should be able to stop him again. The Chiefs were 29th in rush defense, allowing 4.9 yards per carry. As a result of Henry's ability to run over defenses, Tannehill hasn't had to throw the ball often, only 29 attempts for 160 yards, but throwing for 3 touchdowns and running for one.

    Mahomes' arm is Kansas City's most dangerous weapon but also his legs as well. He rushed for 53 yards against the Texans in the divisional round. Mahomes has the benefit of having Hill and Kelce who had stellar games against Houston. Can Jackson and Byard and Tennessee's defense match-up against these two and the high flying offense?

    The Pick? Tennessee 30, Kansas City 28

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nf...hip-previews-picks/ar-BBYZ2Nw?ocid=spartanntp
     
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  5. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    All this nonsense about Tannehill because some put him in the second tier and you think he should be in the third tier........ wow.
     
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  6. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    The TELLING number that isn’t illustrated in those stats above...

    1 out of every 7 completed passes by Tannehill results in a touchdown.

    1 out of every 15 completed
    passes by Mahomes results in a touchdown.

    While I’ve said previously that I don’t see this game as a shootout, the Titans can score and score quickly. With a season high average of 30.6 points per game since Tannehill’s start, that’s a LOT of points.

    Can’t wait!!!!!
     
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  7. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The patience of Job.

    After all that, and all the other very well explained analyses, I predict that he still will not relent.

    The hilarious thing is that ever IF there was a significant correlation in Miami, it would still be a stretch to put the cause all on the QB. Anyone with eyes could see that the 2012 - 2018 Miami Dolphins were overall a terrible pass blocking team. They were also prone to fall behind in games and get forced to pass in obvious passing situations. It all adds up to failure by the entire passing offense and coaching staff and front office.
     
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  8. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I'm excited as well...and nervous as hell at the same time...almost as nervous as if it were the Dolphins playing.

    I'd love nothing more than to see the Titans win this one and at least get to the Super Bowl. I mean, it's all gravy at this point anyway, but its been crazy fun to see how they've advanced, especially considering who they've knocked out in the process. Very strange feeling...having games to care about this late in the football season...been many years...the '90s feel like another lifetime.
     
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You illustrated the issue in a nutshell there: we shouldn't expect merely a league average passer rating in high-volume passing games from the highest-rated passer in the league.

    That isn't the pattern the vast majority of other highly-rated passers demonstrate. Again this is why Lamar Jackson was dismantled in a high-volume game last weekend, despite his very high 2019 passer rating.

    Tannehill has demonstrated a decrement in performance in high-volume games throughout his career, including in Tennessee, that hasn't changed in 2019 despite his league-leading passer rating. This distinguishes him from the best QBs in the league, for whom high passer ratings aren't accompanied by such large decrements in high-volume games.

    Again, here are the data:

    Tannehill's career average passer rating in low-volume games: 97.9
    Tannehill's career average passer rating in high-volume games: 80.5

    In Tennessee alone those figures are 118+ and 87.3 -- that's obviously a huge decrement.

    Here are career figures for other notable QBs:

    Aaron Rodgers: 105.5; 98.6
    Russell Wilson: 103.6; 93.4
    Tom Brady: 101.1; 92.4
    Deshaun Watson: 100.9; 96.1
    Patrick Mahomes: 111.7; 104.9

    We can examine the same issue with correlations. The correlation between pass attempts and passer rating, on a game-by-game basis, over Tannehill's career is -0.37.

    Here are the same career correlations for other notable QBs:

    Aaron Rodgers: -0.16
    Russell Wilson: -0.18
    Tom Brady: -0.10
    Deshaun Watson: -0.15
    Patrick Mahomes: -0.19

    Again the correlation for Tannehill in that regard in 2019 alone isn't informative due to a restricted range of pass attempts (see the article below for an explanation of that).

    So I'll leave it to you, only if you would like of course, to choose whatever statistical test examines the fact that, despite Tannehill's very high 2019 passer rating, we should expect a vastly different performance from him in high-volume games than we would from the other QBs in the league with similarly high overall passer ratings (other than Lamar Jackson), but the above data are certainly not meaningless in that regard.

    When the data clearly tell us that, despite Ryan Tannehill's very high overall passer rating, when he passes the ball in a high-volume manner we should expect a "Lamar Jackson" game from him and not a "Patrick Mahomes" game under those conditions, the data are telling us something important about his ability to perform in a manner consistent with winning in the NFL.

    Again, this is why this very simple article was written:
    https://dolphinswire.usatoday.com/2...lphins-learn-from-tannehills-postseason-push/
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2020
  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Lamar Jackson was dismantled because HE ISN'T A GOOD PASSER. Comparing him and Tannehill as passers is silly. Just because Jackson failed doesn't mean Tannehill will.
     
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  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. Maybe if you say the same thing 1,000,000 times it will become true or people will believe you. More likely they will ignore you. BTW, I think you are at 999,999 times so far.....
     
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  12. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Except this year, as explained earlier is such a small sample size that you have to do in game analysis. 2 interceptions that were "perfect passes" in 2 of the 3 games you are referencing. Both of those interceptions were either going in for a TD or setting them up with very short yardage in a 1st and goal. Again IF you watched the game you would know that stats doesn't tell the story here.

    You have to look at both environments as different animals. You insist that nothing around Tannehill is going to change what Tannehill is, even though every stat Tannehill is delivering is WAY off from what you are expecting. You are in a burning house and wondering why the thermostat isn't working.
     
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  13. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Every single one of his predictions has been wrong ......
     
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  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Then you have to similarly "correct" for the performances in that regard of the quarterbacks to whom we're comparing Tannehill, and now the league passer rating in high-volume games changes.
    Not necessarily. As the article I copied above notes, it's entirely possible that the environment in Tennessee is helping him play so well by restricting his involvement in the kinds of games that make him play poorly (high-volume games), and that his ability to play well in those kinds of games hasn't changed, despite the change in environment.

    Again the article I copied above explains that very well. It isn't only me thinking this here.
     
  15. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. Two people can be wrong..... That author is full of crap. What makes me think he is full of it? This comment from the article:

    " They’ve acknowledged, internally, that Tannehill is a complimentary quarterback "

    Really? Any backup for that? Just a fluff piece that you spent hours searching for. LOL.
     
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  16. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    What also doesn't show in the stat line, is just how difficult many of his passes have been. Tight-windows, double-coverage, difficult angles, jump fades, 60 yard ropes on a dime, touch passes, he's made them ALL during this season/post-season...with a ridiculous amount of accuracy, in-stride allowing for YAC on numerous plays. His only terrible pass I've seen was the INT at New England.

    His kind of statistics will never touch on that information. There are Next Gen stats that do, however, and those stats LOVE Tannehill. That throw to AJ Brown in the Houston game week 17 was the single most-difficult to complete pass thrown in 2019 by ANY quarterback.

    The dude has arrived, thrown his keys to the valet, and is sippin' a martini with a Cuban.
     
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  17. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Really interesting article about Arthur Smith - https://theathletic.com/1539187/202...-unlikely-story-of-his-own/?source=dailyemail

    Sorry, it is a pay site, but this part is UNBELIEVABLE:

    And what makes his work ethic and personality especially notable to me is the fact he just so happens to be the son of Fed Ex founder Fred Smith.

    Talking with Smith you would never know that his father was worth billions and that if he so chose he would probably not have to work a day in his life. I’d like to think that I’d work and act like Smith if I were in his situation, but I really don’t know how I would have handled that. I do know that most people in that position wouldn’t want to work 16-18-hour days for years for little compensation and even less recognition. I also think most people would probably let it be known, casually or otherwise, who their father was. He never once mentioned it to me or anybody I spoke to about him. Multiple people I’ve spoken with said they were unaware for months if not years before they somehow found out. I went on a radio station in Nashville last Friday before calling the Titans vs. Ravens game for Westwood One on Saturday night and the hosts had no idea.​
     
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  18. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I read that article too, and Titans fans lambasted it. There's no substance backing it up, it's one guy's "guess" based on how Tannehill has been used in the playoffs so far. Their fans mostly all love Tannehill and view his play this year as elite.
     
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  19. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    upload_2020-1-17_9-24-11.png
    Don't do it Titans!!!! The Guy isn't convinced yet!!!!
     
  20. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    No I don't, cause I'm not trying to draw any comparison. I'm saying that you need to take into account why in a 3 GAME sample size, numbers might be skewed. IF he had 30 games of the high volume we are talking about then you assume that the oddities balance out.

    I don't know how else to explain this point.

    IF a QB comes out and throws for 300 yds completes 73% of his passes for 1 TD and 4 Int BUT all of the interceptions are perfect passes that bounce off of the receiver and into the defenses arms, you don't declare that your QB had a bad game and end analysis there.

    If Tannehill was putting up close to the same stats across the board in Tennessee, then you might be able to make a claim that its just who Tannehill is. BUT every other stat out there tells you that he isn't playing just like he did in Miami. So with ALL of that mounting evidence for you to cover your ears and say "NOPE HE IS THE SAME GUY VOLUME VOLUME VOLUME" is insane.
     
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  21. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    upload_2020-1-17_9-27-5.png
     
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  22. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    This is validated by his completion % above expected:

    upload_2020-1-17_9-33-54.png

    Tops in the league by a wide margin.
     
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  23. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    OR a team is going to have to find a way to stop Tannehill from scoring so many damn points on so little throws, cause you can't beat a QB that does that. It just isn't possible. He's just too good. Imagine if Michael Jordan could have scored all of those points but only had to come down the court 2 or 3 times a game... man that would be swwweeeet.
     
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  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Interesting to compare Tannehill's completion % above expected vs Mariota's

    upload_2020-1-17_9-37-54.png

    upload_2020-1-17_9-38-21.png

    Their expected completion % is nearly identical. This makes sense because they played in the same offense with largely the same players. The expected takes into account distance of the throws, pass pressure, receiver separation.

    Tannehill's actual completion % smashes Mariota's. The difference in the Titans passing offense WAS TANNEHILL.
     
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  25. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Mariota is being rumored to join the Chicago Bears.... the Bears OC was Mariotas OC in Oregon, I believe... thats an interesting move. But I dont think his much of an upgrade over Turdbiasky.
     
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  26. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I've heard Tannehill has terrible pocket presence and NEVER avoids the rush.

    [​IMG]
     
  27. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And not only did he collect over $2M in performance bonuses on the season, he was close to getting even more in that Houston game, knew it, and STILL lobbied to feed Henry the ball so he could win the rushing title. Class.
     
  28. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I would agree...with one "but."

    Look at Tannehill after he was demoted and had to fight for a job. He definitely had a fire lit under his ***. Could Mariota do the same? They were previously viewed as basically the same QBs. Maybe Mariota comes in and thinks the same way Tannehill did, "I'll make the most out of my next opportunity, and I'll do it MY way!"
     
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  29. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    upload_2020-1-17_9-57-39.png
     
  30. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Sign me up for one of those, in a Dolphins uniform.

    Wait...
     
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  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    It is just so sad......
     
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  32. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Unlike the Dolphins, our GM has built this roster to help Marcus. Draft top two Tackles, RB, WRs, and still flunked. Dont know what the case was in Miami but I doubt you guys focused on building the roster good enough for Tanny
     
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  33. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Well.. here's a surprise. I don't yet know how to explain this data, but this is what you get when you plot correlations between passing attempts and passer rating as a function of 2019-adjusted ratings for every QB season from 1978 with 150+ passing attempts:
    [​IMG]

    First thing to notice is the purple line which is the league average correlation at each adjusted passer rating.

    The slope is negative!

    I have no idea WHY that is, but what that says is that the better a QB you are, the WORSE you tend to do as passing volume gets higher, relative to how all QB's do in high-volume situations (including bad ones). I thought (as you probably did) that the slope would be positive, but that's not true. Why that is, I have no idea, but that's the data.

    The green circles are Tannehill's season-by-season correlations, with the far right one being for 2019 of course. So.. in 2019 Tannehill is actually slightly ABOVE league average in terms of the decrement in passer rating vs. passing attempts. In Miami, he was mostly below. Either way, for any of this to be statistically significant it would have to be beyond the middle 95% along a vertical line, and none are. Well.. I already did the hypothesis test and we know none of the data points are statistically significant, but you can see the distribution now.

    So in summary: Tannehill is actually slightly above average for QB's with high passer rating (not in any "statistically significant" way of course) in 2019 w.r.t. how his passer rating is affected by passing attempts. And remember.. this is season by season so if you want to compare to Wilson or anyone else, you need to do it season by season. Oh, and the correlations you're quoting aren't correct if you properly adjust. You can't just lump everything together without adjustment or you're picking up passer rating inflation.
     
  34. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Well, I'd say they kinda did, but they didn't have the right coaches in place to maximize the talent they brought in. The spent numerous high picks on OL and targets, but didn't get their best play out of 'em. In contrast, I'd say the Titans brought in roughly the same level of talent in several cases (except Henry of course), and the QB was holding them back, to a point. That sure seems to be the feeling of many Titans fans. Or what we're seeing could be somebody stumbling into the perfect storm situation, where it all fits together like glue...GM, coaches, players, etc.

    I'd like to believe JRob is a better evaluator of talent fit and personnel management. He came right in making bold moves, and they're paying dividends.

    Either way, probably still some luck involved...and sometimes its better to be lucky than good.
     
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  35. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    OK I need a new prescription for my glasses now....

    Seriously though...wow. That's kinda awesome:

    "So in summary: Tannehill is actually slightly above average for QB's with high passer rating (not in any "statistically significant" way of course) in 2019 w.r.t. how his passer rating is affected by passing attempts."

    Speaks for itself.
     
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  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The two rosters were about as far apart as you can get. Miami drafted mostly finesse players.

    Jonathan Martin vs Taylor Lewan is about as stark a difference as you will find in the league.
    Think Kenyan Drake vs Derrick Henry.
    Ja'Wuan James vs Jack Conklin.
    Devante Parker vs AJ Brown
    Mike Gesicki vs Jonnu Smith
     
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  37. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    No I don't think we ever did. right up till when we traded him, I was saying it was sad cause we never actually got to see what he could do.

    To be fair, they threw some money at a few high price FA, but they almost always ended on the IR list year after year. I never looked into it, but it sure seemed like we were snake bit when it came to that. Everything else was pretty much self inflicted.
     
  38. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Will this finally kill the argument? Somehow I doubt it.... because..... look at these cherry picked stats......
     
  39. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    I don't need all of these super deeps stats. My eyes can see it. The correlation is that Henry's game and Tannehill's game complement each other: it is a symbiotic relationship. Henry was not effective with Mariota at QB but as soon as the QB change was made we all know what happened. Sometimes things happen that can't be predicted such as in this instance where the pairing of these 2 individuals (along with the rest of the team) suddenly made the Titans into world beaters. Stats are stats, these guys are just getting it done.
     
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  40. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    He def has missed on Corey Davis, Dodd (no longer employeed) but he has found some gems in the later rounds like Byard, Jonnu Smith. Jayon Brown
     

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