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Is Adam Gase the biggest scam in football???

Discussion in 'AFC East Rivals' started by djphinfan, Apr 17, 2019.

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  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    And not to keep harping on it, but we lost 3 starting linemen, and at one point we were missing Parker, Grant, and Wilson. Plus lost the starting QB. And that's only part of our offense...not looking at defense.
     
  2. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Yeah...I'm saying those are all easily fixable character things that his hubris is holding him back from accomplishing. They are things aside from talent evaluation that have nothing to do with any special traits and any human could do, more or less.

    I feel like you are dodging my question. If Gase was on the field involved with his whole team, would your opinion of him change.
     
  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Okay, but how do your injury stats factor a 2nd/3rd string line with a QB that can't handle pressure...throwing to 3rd string receivers? The simple answer is that it doesn't, and it takes some actual consideration of the facts to form a real conclusion.

    I don't disagree with ANY of your analysis- statistically Gase was horrible and that definitely raises red flags. But for as long as we've had problems on the offensive line due to injury (and just lack of elite talent/line coaching), you can't say that was 100% on the head coach if he's not getting to pick his players. Belichek wouldn't work like that and neither would Gruden...and they're both top football minds on polar opposites of the spectrum.

    The difference between Gruden and someone like Gase in Miami though is that Gruden said up front- this team is a cluster-$@&^ and it can't be overhauled overnight.....hence the long guarantee. Gase was promised that but ultimately didn't have it...hence the chaos when his QB went down two years in a row. I think it's great our new coach has a 5 year guarantee because it's thinking ahead and it let him gut the roster of high priced veterans. That is how you build a contender if you have the front office making smart draft choices, but it also takes patience and that just wasn't there with Gase. It's really a night and day scenario.
     
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    So now we have direct evidence you don't even read my posts. I tell you directly the injury stats we have aren't the ones we'd ideally want and don't tell the whole story yet you act like I didn't say that. I also tell you that 7 wins is expected even based on the stats we have yet you keep acting like I didn't answer your question. Unbelievable. Obtuse is absolutely the best word to describe you right now!

    And before the season I predicted 6-8 wins in that prediction thread. Vegas said 6.5 expected wins. Nothing Gase did here is special GIVEN the players, which is what you asked. But as I told you already.. not that it matters you won't read this.. the 7 wins is bad precisely because it's not like you can separate Gase from the situation he was in in year 3. He helped pick the personnel. He relied on Tannehill, etc...

    Let's see the next obtuse response.
     
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  5. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    If someone predicted 6 to 8 wins before the season, while that WAS accurate it was also with a depleted roster you didnt see coming.

    I dont want Gase here but I dont see how you think that portion proves any point. It supports his argument more than yours.
     
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  6. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah I've already said before Gase isn't 100% responsible, but you can't absolve him of (major) responsibility. As far as taking into consideration factors specific to the type of QB we had.. well first of all you need to show you can do a comparable analysis (even if partly subjective) for ALL teams or we won't know to what degree the situation for Gase was beyond average. That AV "metric" (I put it in quotations because it's not really a metric) is the best example of a subjective assignment of the impact of injuries, and we're also average there (I posted this before but here it is again.. AV is the size of the bubble):

    [​IMG]

    Point is.. I need something other than a fan's "feeling" of the situation for one team. Have to have some justifiable way of comparing across the league.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2019
  7. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    If the "depleted" roster was more average than some people here think then yes it does prove a point. Furthermore, there were many commentators saying you have to expect Tannehill to get injured during the season and can't expect 16 games from him. Besides, I added those predictions as extra info supporting my overall point. It's not like my entire argument rests on just that one data point.
     
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  8. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    If this is correct, then it explains a lot. I hope your source is in a position to know this kind of information firsthand.

    I'm following Gase via some of the Jets forums. I'm a Gase fan so I usually accept the best and ignore the worst, like most real fans. Trying to determine what is really going on in New York is difficult, but he seems to be winning the mainstream media battle in many of the forum posters eyes. The Jets owner may be the best thing that could have happened to Adam Gase as a Head coach, based on the changes that we can see the owner has made so far.

    They have made two major front office changes since Gases' arrival; releasing their GM and his assistant. This would be consistent with your explanation of what happened in Miami and if it was made known to the Jets owner. This would explain why the new GM search is looking at nothing but high caliber and well respected personnel, which according to the posters is a real change in the way this had been done there in the past. This would also explain why Gase is the temporary GM while the search for a new GM is being made. It even explains the information Gase made available to the press when he told them that he and a small group of others were generating a detailed job description for a GM's duties at the owners request.

    One thing it doesn't seem to explain based on the front office conflict in Miami is Gases' recent answer to the NY news media about how effective and "right on" Greer's' scouting reports were.

    With the players the Jets currently have in place, the DC that Gase now has and the upcoming changes to their front office, I'm concerned they will be a force to be reckoned with in our division. I dread the upcoming Dolphins - Jets games because however it plays out, they will be bittersweet to me. If the Dolphins win I'll be happy about that but cringe at the slams that will feature Gase. If the Jets win I'll be happy for Gase and mad as hell that we couldn't take advantage of his skill set due to owner mismanagement. The only positive I see here is a possibility that both teams beat the Patriots at least once.
     
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  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It seems like whenever there are high expectations for a coach or a player, and he doesn’t live up to them, the default explanation is that it’s something in his surroundings that accounts for it.

    What people don’t seem to realize is that you are seriously handicapping a coach or a player’s individual ability by taking that perspective on him.

    If someone’s deficient performance is attributable to his surroundings, then whatever good performance he has must also be attributable to his surroundings, and then you have implicitly put a ceiling on his individual ability. It can never be his ability that accounts for his good performance; just like with his deficient performance, it has to be his surroundings that account for it.

    Certainly you can’t blame his surroundings when he performs poorly, and then turn around and attribute his good performance (if and when it occurs) solely to him?

    So by saying a coach or a player is a victim of his surroundings, one is also implicitly saying he is not as good as certain other coaches or players, ones whose performance is not as dependent on their surroundings. In so doing you have implicitly put a ceiling on his individual ability.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2019
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Hmm.. interesting idea but I don't think I agree. Let's take two scenarios: 1) Player X is placed on N different teams and for every team we observe a constant increase C in performance by some measure, and 2) Player Y is placed on the same N teams and we see different increases and decreases in performance depending on the team, but we see an average increase of C in our performance measure.

    In both cases we would say the expected increase in performance for any team with either player X or Y is C, but that player Y is more dependent on his surroundings than X is. In other words, the "ceiling" or "floor" on a player's ability or even a measure of that player's ability is independent of the degree to which that individual is influenced by his surroundings, at least in principle.

    Which suggests a general principle: you can use the variance in performance to estimate the effect of the surroundings on any player X if you could do the necessary experiments and randomly change the surroundings. The reason we can't estimate the relative contribution of different players to the observed result is precisely because we don't have sufficient "random" changes in the makeup of the team.
     
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  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I think I follow what you’re saying, but is player X the kind of player being talked about here, when we blame his performance on his surroundings? Or is it player Y?
     
  12. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    This was certainly the theme for #17, he either played well.....or his team sucked. Not much in the middle.

    Glad that chapter is closed.
     
  13. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    For Gase I'd say the question comes down to how much of the "surroundings" (i.e., going back to what KeyFin wrote) was actually due to a typical reaction people have to the type of person Gase is. If those reactions of other people refusing to go along with Gase was fairly normal given the type of personality/attitude Gase had, then we're talking about a player X type. But if their reactions were more specific to the Dolphins organization, then it's player Y type.

    As I said before, my bias is towards thinking the "surroundings" Gase had to deal with were mostly of his own making. But who knows.. we can't infer that from the data we have right now. What happens with the Jets will provide more clarity. I predicted correctly that organizational dysfunction was likely with Gase, but the real test is on-field performance.
     
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  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I can't talk about my source other than say he HAD direct ties to the front office through a few top people and several regular staff members. And even within the building, you'd hear two completely different things in the same day from three different people. Gase was a visionary. Gase is a narcissist that's destroying this team. That kind of stuff- very heavy opinions and very little harmony. I used the Senate example earlier because that's almost what it sounded like to me...two political parties trying to screw one another over.

    And just so you know, this type of stuff is well known around the league. You won't find it in the media but front offices know who's working together and who's imploding. It's just not talked about though outside of certain circles- which is why I generally don't post anything major here. If you look back through my posts over the years though and some of my predictions (Ajayi being shipped out, serious win streaks after a 1-5 start, etc.), I looked pretty visionary myself. Some of it was insight and perspective though that the average person wouldn't have.

    I can't comment on Grier since he wasn't a topic of conversation the past few seasons....I have no idea if him/Gase worked together much or not. I just know Gase wasn't happy and he knew he had opportunities elsewhere. I think the Jets will be very good this year and I feel the same way- it will be bittersweet. I'll definitely pay attention though.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2019
  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I think they absolutely were- he was an a-hole to people who didn't do their job or tried to boss him around. He wasn't going to sit in a room and explain himself to a bunch of "talking heads" who didn't understand things on his level...he had no interest in the politics of football at all (and was mainly annoyed by it). And that pissed people off to no end- not that Gase cared. He saw it as he had a job to do and it wasn't getting done sitting in an office eating $200 lunches.

    Note here that I'm defending Adam Gase the offensive minded coach ONLY. Everything I heard was secondhand from some heavily opinionated people, so I always took it with a grain of salt and figured out my own conclusions. That's why I also said that there's not much to talk about until this upcoming season is in the books.....we will have a lot more clarity at that time. I'm personally hoping the Jet and the Fins do great and NE ends up 3rd in the division. That's not going to happen, but who knows a few seasons down the road.....
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Well that's interesting. If you agree with me about Gase being to a good deal responsible for the organizational dysfunction (if I'm reading that correctly), then why do you think he'll have success in NY? It's quite rare for a team to have good on-field performance when there's organizational dysfunction. Granted, when that dysfunction starts to affect on-field performance depends on how the team starts off with Gase. In Miami it's totally believable that it happened in 2017 his 2nd year. But it has to eventually occur if it's due to the person.

    As far as Gase the OC vs. HC, the demands for managerial skill are very different. Gase might be a good OC but never a good HC. Anyway, I'll just say I'm going to be really surprised if Gase has a winning season in NY in 2019. Over 3 years or so he might manage one, but my personal expectation is he'll have a losing record after 3 years. What I have to think about is what assumptions I'll have to change if that prediction turns out to be wrong.. right now I'm not sure as I'm fairly confident on this one (because of Gase's personality).
     
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  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Gase isn’t stupid that’s why he hired Greg Williams so he never has to dip that head into the room..

    Darnold is gonna be a star so he has that as well. An unscripted qb who can do things that Tannehill could only dream, he’s set up in the short term for success.
     
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  18. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Why do you assume that simply because YOU respond to a post of mine, and then we have a discussion, that the initial post was referring to ONLY cbrad? I've says several times, that there are others who have a problem with 7 wins, and use it as an example of Gase and his poor coaching. I'm asking THOSE PEOPLE what they think the dolphins should have won, if in their opinion the Dolphins underperformed.

    Further, if BEFORE the season you predicted 6-8 wins, and THEN we later lose 3/5ths of our line, two of our starting receivers, and our starting QB, and the team STILL hit right smack in the middle of your prediction, then I'd argue that by your own prediction, Gase actually had the Dolphins over achieve to get 7 wins.

    The only obtuse posts have been yours.
     
  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But you're ignoring the fact that win/loss isn't about one person. You're blanking Gase for the record, and saying it was bad, therefore it's his fault. But we're saying that when you have ****, you make **** salad... And it still tastes like ****. I think Gase turned **** into an almost eatable meal to get 7 wins that year. So, given better players/environment, I thinks it's completely reasonable to think that Gases offense would look much better, and the team would have a better record.
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Because it's a habit of yours to post a response to a single post, usually right above yours, without quoting the post. You've done that for years. So maybe change the habit before accusing people of misinterpreting anything?

    No.. as I responded to AGuyNamedAlex, if our injury situation wasn't far from average, then the prediction stands because that means that's the level of injury you'd expect from your opponents too.

    Not even close, but I understand why you think that.
     
  21. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Here's how I see it...the head coach's job is not to work with every single player, sit in every position meeting, etc and try to micro-manage. His job is to (1) lead by example and (2) implement the main strategies. I think Gase does both of those things well in his own way....which is certainly not for everyone. However, if you bring in that coach that needs 24/7 reinforcement to do his job at a high level, a guy like Gase will quickly get tired of that and hurt someone's feelings. If I "read between the lines" correctly, that's what happened last season. If Gase is your leader, then you have to have people in the building that can work with that type of leader. The front office didn't see the importance in that though, so it is what it is.

    It's really like any job though- one bad apple in the office can mess up the whole team's chemistry. It can be that one jerk that can't stop spreading rumors and making up gossip. It could be that power hungry guy that ****s all over everyone to make himself feel better...taking all the credit for everything that works and blaming others when it doesn't. You had those types in the building and it flat out crushed the culture.

    One thing you couldn't really say about Gase-led teams is that they quit on him....they played hard UP UNTIL that Minnesota game. By then the writing was already on the wall that Gase was leaving and the organization was going to be torn apart, which should NEVER HAPPEN inside any sports organization. I got the feeling that it was really freaking bad though towards the end.
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    OK but you didn't answer my question: if you agree with me that the response of people in the Dolphins organization is more typical than not towards someone with a personality/attitude like Gase, why do you think he'll succeed in NY? There's no reason to think the Jets are some kind of exemplary organization. I think you need to rethink your predictions about Gase having success in NY given this discussion.
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Cbrad...let me try to really break it down for you. There was a discussion going on in regards to Gase, and the product on the field. IF someone believes that the product on the field was bad, and they say that it's Gase's fault, then they must believe that with different coaching the results would have been better. IF someone believes that the product on the field was bad because we had second stringers occupying like 2/3rds of our offense, then they Bennie that Gase did a great job to get to 7 wins.

    I was merely asking, if someone WHO BELIEVES THAT THE TALENT ON THE FIELD was better than the results we got, what do they think we should have won? I wasn't singling anytime person out.

    It's actually more than a little disconcerting that you think any post I make, not specifically directed at someone, is directed at you.
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    No problem resnor, we'll move on.

    But just so you understand why I said what I said.. I think most people will agree that the "original post" you referred to, post #435:
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/is...t-scam-in-football.94231/page-11#post-3176604

    was directed at me. Not only the use of "you" in that post but also the fact no one else at the time was making an argument for which that could be a valid response. And.. as I pointed out you wrote that without quoting anyone.

    Similarly, it's clear post #369 is a response to The Guy even though you don't quote him:
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/is...t-scam-in-football.94231/page-10#post-3176029

    .. and that post #325 is a response to The Guy even though you don't quote him:
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/is-adam-gase-the-biggest-scam-in-football.94231/page-9#post-3175959

    .. and that post #310 is a response to me even though you don't quote me:
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/is-adam-gase-the-biggest-scam-in-football.94231/page-8#post-3175939

    etc.. it's something you've often done. Point is.. it's not always clear who you're responding to with posts where you don't quote the poster, so unless you make it a habit to make it clear who you're responding to, either by quoting the person or by calling out the poster like you just did, you can't really expect people to infer your intentions.
     
  25. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Lack of accountability and fathering a bad culture.

    When you do that?? The talent and your record shrink up real fast.
     
  26. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    The last time I saw the general stats was that any one time about 1 in 6 players are out injured. I thought we could do better than 8-8 because I believed Tannehill would come back to his 2016 form. That 8-8 and possibly one or two more assumed injuries because all teams suffer injuries. All teams will have patches of good health and bad health. Good coaches can coach up adequate performance from backups, and I thought Gase was a good coach.
     
  27. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Keyfin, thank you very much for sharing this.

    I still have strong doubts about Gase as a HC.
    1) I pointed very early in this thread that Gase’s offensive system and defensive system were incompatible. That’s a failure on strategic thinking. To me that’s a sign he is not HC material. This goes back to the lack of production that cbrad points out as being a problem even if Gase wins 2 games a year more than expected by point differential.
    2) I have never personally seen “trust me, I’m a genius” work as a leadership style. The best leaders I have encountered explain the why of their thinking to get people to join their vision.
    3) The reported lack of engagement in training camp (DJ ?) bothers me. As does the apparent outsourcing of all things D to Gregg Williams in NYJ. That is what Cam Cameroon did and he lost one side of the ball immediately and that filtered to the other side of the ball as soon as the Ls started racking up.
    4) I can’t say that I have been impressed by the play of backups or the overall level of improvement of rookies. That bothers me as the way to win in the salary cap era is to coach up your low cost players. Nothing Gase has done says he is better than average at this.

    I’m with cbrad in that that so far Gase appears to be at least a competent OC, but at best an average HC. QBs and HCs need about 3 years to work out if they are “the man”. If you don’t have a positive yes by then it’s time to line up a replacement.
     
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  28. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I don't think the people in the Dolphins organization was typical at all...it hasn't been since Ross arrived and cleared out the 1st regimen. Philbin was hired because he was "a heck of a nice guy with high moral fortitude". I mean literally, he was brought in because he was going to hire nice players and nice coaches and that would make us the most upstanding team in football. How many SB wins did that philosophy bring EVER...IN ANY SPORT?

    Why'd we fire that regimen? Not because of record or anything directly football related...they were gone because Ross's non-football business associates thought different leadership was needed. His belief is to listen to everyone, gain insights everywhere, and make your decision off of a consensus of what seems like the right thing to do. Only, everyone has different loyalties and their opinions vary on perspective. Then there's Ross trying to figure out why everyone can't just get along and win a Super Bowl...he literally has zero clue what he's doing as an owner. I don't know of any team run that way.....either the owner is hands on, or the GM (or president of football operations, whatever) makes all the decisions.

    You don't buy an automotive repair shop and hire the whole staff when you don't know anything about cars. Yet that's Ross's approach to running a football team.....just ask other people and they'll surely tell you what's best. That's EXACTLY WHY the top coaching candidates and the top free agents generally want nothing to do with Miami- their job security is literally tied to an accountant, an owner of a restaurant chain or a barber in NY on any given day. He asks everyone- what do you think I should do?

    And that's why he promised Gase one thing and did something completely different- Gase didn't have time to go visit that barber and explain his long term goals for the team. That's over the top but I wanted you to get the point- if you met Ross somewhere and talked for a little bit, then said you were a Dolphins fan, I guarantee you he'd say, "What do you think about this year's team?" He literally asks everyone he knows for opinions and that's how decisions are made.

    That is in no way, shape or form typical for an NFL team.
     
  29. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Understood. So I guess whether Gase succeeds or fails in NY will be a test of which one of us is correct about whether the response to Gase was due more to peculiarities in the Dolphins organization under Ross or due to Gase himself.

    Regardless of who ends up being correct.. you better hope I'm right because if the Jets fail.. how should I put this?
    BUAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!
     
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  30. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    LOL, it puts me in a very weird position. It's like damn, do I want the stinkin' Jets to win just to prove a point? Yes? No! Maybe?!? I really have no idea and will have to figure it out this season. I'll still be a Gase fan either way...but the Fins come first.

    However, if they do beat us in the first match-up this season, I will be talking MAD AMOUNTS of crap here. LOL! So prepare yourself people!

    What should we pretend bet on? Just the two match-ups or overall record? Or both? Or maybe first to sweep New England?

    Here's a good bet- who wins a playoff game 1st? Miami, New York, or Tennessee with Tannehill as the starter? I almost think my money would be on #17. Mariota got beat up badly last season and I think RT may work himself into a starting position by season's end.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2019
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  31. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    The assumptions about Gase are best tested based on overall record. If they end up with a losing record I'm going to act like I have evidence for my assumptions about Gase, and if they end up with a winning record I won't need any prodding.. I'll start re-thinking my assumptions about Gase. So that's what I'd prefer the pretend bet be on.

    From a statistician's point of view though, my claim will rest completely on whenever that 95% confidence interval either excludes 56% win% (corresponds to a 9-win season.. suggesting that Gase won't be a winning HC) OR if Gase really is good, whenever the lower endpoint of the 95% CI excludes 50% (proves he's above average).
     
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  32. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If they beat us it doesn’t mean you can have folks eat crow imo, takes a while for his Bs coaching style to manifest, like I said Williams and Darnold are his saviors
     
  33. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    What Adam Gase does in NY will not or should not matter. What he did here was be a pouty little know-it-all who blamed players for everything. You just don't do that and IF he doesn't realize that in NY? He will be there less time than he was here.

    His issues are his personality and ego, that's harder to shake than any bad coaching habits.
     
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  34. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Imo my feelings are based on coaching style and acumen, I don’t like the way he coaches period, I don’t like the way he uses his talent, I don’t like the way he acquiesces to other coaches to lead, for example mike gesicki and Ryan Tannehill, horrible usage of talent
     
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  35. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    How is the team practicing terrible not the head coaches fault? Schlereth tried to portray it like gase wasnt at fault. All reports are that gase was very hands off in practice and was usually off doing his own thing. Practice performance is absolutely the head coaches responsibilty.
     
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  36. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Last edited: Jun 5, 2019
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  37. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Before anyone lays the blame at Matt Burke’s feet, it’s the HC’s role to make sure that the lower level coaches are preparing the players the right way. There’s no way don Shula would accept an assistant coach not preparing players properly. (NB Don did accept Tom Olivadatti for many years but Tom’s problems as a coach were on scheme not preparing talent to be ready to play).
     
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  38. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I personally dont like this idea of playing minkah at all these different positions. I'd rather they pick one or two (free safety and/or slot corner) and let him perfect his game there. I'd rather have a player that can be elite at one position instead of just pretty good at multiple positions.
     
  39. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There’s a story out there that Mike Gesicki had to call his old coach from college and ask for advice last year citing he wasn’t getting the right coaching..
     
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  40. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Hey C-brad,?, just wondering what this posers record was on the road in his three years and what was the point discrepancy when going on the road?
     
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