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Fun Little Read on Dolphins Making the Playoffs

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Jun 2, 2019.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    This certainly isn't "newsworthy" but it felt like a good change of pace article for this time in the year. Here's this person's viewpoint on why Miami will be a playoff team this season and why he bet $50 on it in Vegas (NOTE....I did not write this article!)-

    https://www.lockedondolphins.com/dolphins/my-money-is-on-the-miami-dolphins-making-the-playoffs/

    H
    ere's a little snippet-

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's a bit "Pie in the sky" but, better than "Tank for Tua".
    I want to sit down for every game this season feeling confident that the good guys have a realistic shot at winning.
     
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  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    He also had Tunsil as an "average performer" at left guard, even though he played very solid and was a huge part of Ajayi running wild (with Albert Wilson's help, of course). That run game was really the difference in 2016.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    That's a bad bet, but I guess that's one reason Vegas makes money. It's actually quite competitive now. I'd list at least 8 teams in the AFC most likely vying for 6 spots: Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Browns, Texans, Colts, Chiefs and Chargers. That's tough competition.

    Right now Vegas thinks we'll win maybe 5 or so. Going through archived odds..
    https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-odds/

    you'll see the standard deviation of the difference between actual wins vs. expected total wins is about 2, meaning that about 2/3 of the time Vegas gets it right +-2 from what they list. For us to make the playoffs we'd need minimum 9 wins and probably 10, which puts you over 2 standard deviations away from expected which translates to at best a 1:20 chance you'd win this bet. That in turn translates to about a +2000 moneyline, yet he bet on a +1100 moneyline.

    So just using historical data you can see it's a bad bet. I think maybe if the moneyline goes well above +2000 you can consider this bet.
     
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  5. Dolphin Dundee

    Dolphin Dundee Well-Known Member

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    Heh nice chart and the only reminder Harris is still on the team..But i guess Gase was right in one thing and that was dumping Ajayi.
     
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  6. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Well, he did say himself that it's a bad bet and I agree with him- Miami's chances are slim to none. The only thing they have in their favor though is new formations/new coaching and that can sometimes earn a couple early wins people don't expect (AKA, 2016 when we started 1-5 then got hot).

    I am not expecting it but hey, it's happened twice in recent memory for Miami and the other one was bringing in an older veteran QB who seemed past his prime like Fitz. If our defense drastically improves under the new coaching who knows.....maybe we can figure out our way to 9 wins somehow. To me, this is not the season schedule for that to happen though- it looks brutal.
     
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  7. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Cute little article.
     
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  8. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I think that its very possible that the skill positions on the offense are all better in 2019 than they were in 2016 if the guys stay mostly healthy. The offensive line was a mess then, and could very well be again this coming season.

    On defense, the secondary is probably better this coming season than it was then. The ugly part is the front seven. Beyond Wake and Suh, the line underachieved that year, but that's the key - Wake and Suh. Two Pro Bowlers and then a bunch of guys who weren't pulling their weight is better than what we have now. I expect both the run defense and pass rush to be among the very worst in the league this coming season, and the pass rush in particular might be one of the worst in Dolphins history.

    That being said, the 2016 team overachieved, and really shouldn't have made the playoffs. The team's talent level was closer to 6-10 than it was to 10-6, and they repeatedly pulled games out of their rear end that they had no business winning - something that Gase would continue to make a habit of. At the end of the season, the 2019 club might end up actually being better than the one from that season. But I don't expect them to come close to ten wins.
     
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  9. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    For me, the path as I see it for the bet to make sense:
    1) Coaching addresses the OL woes.
    2) Coaching covers the lack of DL talent through scheming.
    3) someone steps up at QB.

    Having one or two of those issues solved is possible, maybe even likely. Having all three happen is wishful thinking.

    I honestly think our skill position talent (RB, WR, TE, LB, DB) is pretty good, especially if our coaching staff can get improvement out of the younger players in the roster.
    I am hopeful that our game planning and scheming will be better than last year, based on the past experience of our coaching staff. Adam Gase May have been a genius at drawing up plays, but he couldn’t stitch a coherent game plan together.
    Year 1 of any regime is usually a honeymoon period so the dysfunction we’ve seen between the FO and coaching staff with the Sparano/Philbin/Gase eras should be at a relatively low level. i.e. The dysfunction gets worse the longer the same individuals are in the same seats.

    So if the big 3 questions (OL, DL and QB) can be answered positively then there rest of the parts seem to be in place to mount a playoff run. But it’s a bet I’d make with someone else’s money.
     
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  10. Zigs

    Zigs Member

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    In 1969 the Dolphins went 3, 10 and 1.

    in 1970 the Dolphins in Don Shula's 1st year went 10 and 4.

    The similarities between Coach Flo and Coach Shula are in the details. They both stress less penalties, turnovers, better fundamentals of the game.

    Just sayin
     
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  11. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    It's a good thing that Shula didn't decide to give up on Griese because of how he played before he got there, on some teams without a lot of help :up: Even a top 10 pick at QB can't do it all by himself. Turns out he and their young running backs might just have needed better coaching and blocking to blossom, eh?
     
  12. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Oddly I disagree with the run and pass defense statement. I honestly believe we will be better in that regard than a lot of people think especially if we really get that level of coaching NE has had. Nobody’s turning them into a good defense and excellent at times
     
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  13. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    We need talent on the backend and edge, a good scheme and team defense can stymie a run game. I mean, these guy's know how to tackle and Flores has shown to put defenders in the right spots.
     
  14. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The difficulty this season as I see it, as it has been for the past several seasons, is that the team doesn’t have any offensive skilled position players who can be called one of the best in the league. That’s a major problem.
     
  15. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores

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    I like his optimism. With our schedule we may not get the wins, but I believe the challenges will make our team better for it in the long run.
     
  16. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Miami's home field advantage, since the roof was put in, is under rated. 16 and 8 at home the last three years. On teams that went 23 and 25 over all. 11 and 12 at home the three years prior to the roof, on teams that went 22 and 26 overall

    And look at the schedule this season, 3 of the 4 games in September are at home, when the roof matters most.
     
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  17. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I think that Drake is a top ten back, if given enough work. We'll see if the new staff uses him fully. There must have been a personality issue between he and Gase.

    And if everyone in the passing game is healthy and used properly, then we should have a ton of options there who can be productive, even if none of them are among the best.

    The problem is the line giving Rosen enough time and creating enough holes for the run game. It could really hinder the position players to a few levels below their potential.
     
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  18. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    I just don't see us making a playoff push this season, not impossible but not likely either. One thing that does bother me is the media says we don't have any players at the skill positions as their reasoning as to why we aren't going to be any good. I think that is hogwash, in fact I think we have plenty of horsepower at the skill positions on offense and pretty good pieces in the secondary as well. I still say this teams biggest Achilles heel is the lines on both sides of the ball. If we can get average play out of them I think this team has an outside chance at the playoffs.

    I just don't see that as likely and I'm ok with that for this year as long as I can see some progress.
     
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  19. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    I don't see that a real negative if we have 5-6 above average players at key positions, and they all play at that level we would be much more versatile than just having one stud RB that we rely on game in and game out, If we are well-rounded we can flip the game plan weekly to the defensive teams weakness.
     
  20. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 Write Travis Write Club Member

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    Jason's an awesome writer. He did such a great job on the site last year that I extended an invite to him to come to Miami to cover that Bills and Pats games. He got to see the Miami Miracle from the press box as a result of his great work on Locked On Dolphins.
     
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  21. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I think the biggest issue I see is in 2016, we had a top tier DE in wake and could get to the QB whereas I see that being a major issue with this years team. Maybe these coaches will get more out of less. I like seeing a different take than the typical rebuild article. I’m remaining patient as we all have for the better part of 2 decades and at least feel like this staff gets it. Time will tell
     
  22. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Zero analysis done on the most important position he's comparing from 2016 to 2019 which is, of course; the QB position. Say whatever you want about Ryan Tannehill but he was playing lights out in 2016 before the injury. To casually suggest that journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick and still yet to prove he's not a bum Josh Rosen can easily replace that production is ridiculous. Possible? Sure. Likely? I don't think so.
     
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  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If I can give you a weekly rant/analysis and join you in the press box for a game, count me in! LOL, I do that here each week anyways and I'd love an excuse to come down south once a year.
     
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  24. Miamiforlife

    Miamiforlife Active Member

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    tanny was playing lights out?
    Hmmm. Never seen tannehill play what i would call lights out. He had a couple decent games stat wise. But lights out? Hardly imo. 400 yards and 5 td a game. Never. He threw for 2995 yards and 19 td’s in 13 games. 12 ints. 93.5 rating hardly lights out stats. More like great game manager stats. He would of choked in the playoff game any way. Imo
     
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  25. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Fitzpatrick actually played much better in 2018 than Tannehill did in 2016, when you consider that, once again, Tannehill was making his living against inferior competition, whereas Fitzpatrick was not.
     
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  26. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    This is true. Counting ties as 0.5 wins the average win% of Tannehill's opponents in 2016 was 43.5% while the average win% of Fizpatrick's opponents in 2018 was 53.5%. The two QB's had not too dissimilar ratings once you adjust to a common year (2018) but do not take into account opponent strength: Tannehill's 93.5 rating in 2016 becomes a 97.3 rating in 2018 while Fitz had a 100.4 in 2018.

    But going back to this graph from an earlier post:
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/ho...turn-into-a-good-qb.94337/page-2#post-3176711

    you can see that 1 passer rating point in 2018 corresponds to a 1.04% change in win%, so Tannehill's "opponent-adjusted" rating in 2018 (adjusting to an average opponent in 2018) would be about 90.5 instead of 97.3 and Fitz's would be about 104 instead of 100.4. So if the conversation is just about comparing these 2 years then yeah 13.5 passer rating points is a big difference.

    However.. opponent strength averages out over many years so you really don't need to worry about it much when comparing careers. Weighted average 2018-adjusted career ratings for Tannehill and Fitzpatrick are 91.3 and 87, respectively, so overall Tannehill is slightly better than Fitzpatrick over his career. For comparison, 92.9 is the league average in those calculations (2018 league average).
     
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  27. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Believe it or not Fitzpatrick is a much more conscious off script runner of the football..has over 2,000 yards rushing, and I’m willing to bet 99 percent of them came at good moments of a football game that were not in the script.
     
  28. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Maybe.. but Tannehill has higher career rushing efficiency: 4.88 Y/C vs. 4.54 Y/C for Fitz. I'd have to see clear evidence Fitz's rushing was "better" through more detailed stats we don't have readily available before I accept that argument. I know he "looks" better when scrambling, but looks can be deceiving w.r.t. the impact on the game.
     
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  29. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tannehill rushing attempts were scripted, very rarely did he take off on his own accord....Fitz’s Wasn’t...big difference in terms of efficiency and conversion.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah.. Tannehill's were scripted and Fitz's wasn't as much. That's correct. But that doesn't imply efficiency and conversion% were higher. That second statement – the impact on the game – requires actual evidence. For example, do you have stats on conversion% when Fitz scrambled vs. Tannehill? I haven't seen those type of stats. What if they're similar? Can't just assume one style is superior.
     
  31. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don’t think those stats exist on paper, But I believe the difference Matters on the impact of the game, regardless if no one documents the numbers..it’s not about how he looks stylistically when they run, it’s about knowing when to run on your own accord, when to apply the threat to a defense to establish it as such, and then benefit from it accordingly on multiple levels.
     
  32. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I think if you’re looking for stats then maybe the sack% could help, especially if it can be linked with the pressure % (I’m not sure how far back such data goes). All the data I’m aware of goes on about the passer rating when under pressure, but if we could also lay over rushes, rushing yards and sack% when under pressure. That could give you an idea of how effective a QB is at turning pressure into a jailbreak positive rush.
     
  33. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Sack percentage is a real tricky stat. On one hand there's evidence it's more of a "QB stat" than other stats because the most highly correlated QB-related statistic when a QB changes teams is sack% (followed by completion%, Y/A, TD% and finally INT%, in that order). On the other hand, sacks can occur either because the QB is bad at evading pressure, or because he is GOOD at evading pressure but holds the ball for too long looking to make a play. Look at the career leaders in sack%:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_sacked_perc_career.htm

    The QB with the lowest sack% (just above 3%) tend to be pocket passers that get the ball out quickly, like Manning, Marino and Brees. Highly mobile QB however can be anywhere on that list. Steve Young is right next to Ryan Tannehill at just under 8% and Aaron Rodgers is also around there at ~7%. Young and Rodgers are good examples of QB's with high sack% not because they were bad at evading pressure, but because they were GOOD at it and held the ball longer trying to make a play.

    So I'd stay away from sack% unless you're really confident you know why the sack occurred. Pressure is better, and you're right that having a "pressure on QB" column for any play by play database would do the trick. I've downloaded play by play data, but there is no QB pressure stat in any of them. Not even sure there's an agreed upon definition of pressure among those that report it.
     
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  34. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    One of the reasons I’m not that enthused about pressure% as a stat is that the quality of the pressure isn’t recorded. There’s a difference between a defender fighting through a block and a defender having a free rush lane thanks to patented Dallas Thomas whiff. However one would like to assume that in the long run what counts as pressure will even out through volume.

    If the sites that claim to measure passing while under pressure keep that stat in a published format, perhaps it would be possible to get the data for QB rushing on plays where there was pressure.
     
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  35. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    The writer does not have the correct players for most starts at a few positions. The top 3 corners by starts in 2016 were Lippett, Maxwell, and McCain. The LB with the 3rd most starts was a tie between Neville Hewitt and Donald Butler with 5 each. Paysinger started 3. There was really a revolving door at the two other spots besides Kiko. Jenkins started 7 for 2nd most, but only played in 9 total. Andre Branch was tied for most DE starts with Wake at 11.
    Pouncey only started 5 games at C. The other 11 were split between Steen, and Urbik.

    Also, not considered is Jason Sanders is a better kicker than was Andrew Franks.
     
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  36. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    The question for the 2019 season isn't going to be the caliber of the players...it's going to be the caliber of the coaches. Coaching is EVERYTHING! Players merely execute the schemes and plays called by the coaches. Granted, the better caliber players you have, the better the execution of said schemes and plays but the bottom line though, the Dolphins coaching staff will be the determining factor this season.

    If Brian Flores, Jim Caldwell et al are able to bring schemes and plays to the field that outcoach our opponents, we're going to have a successful season, but if their schemes and plays are right out of "Football For Dummies' and the opposing defense is in the backfield as soon as the ball is snapped....if opposing running backs are past the defensive line before the DL even knows what happened...and the coaches aren't able to adjust, then it doesn't matter what caliber players we have...the team is executing what's being called.

    For years, everyone has ridden Tom Brady's jock strap and marveled at his manhood. I always rolled my eyes. I'm not taking anything away from Brady. He is a phenomenal player, but more importantly in New England's dominance in the AFC has had more to do with their defense shutting down opposing offenses and giving Brady numerous opportunities. Without that defense, New England's success would be half of what it's been. The question now becomes, will Flores bring that same tenacity to Miami's defense, holding opposing offenses and giving our offense, regardless of who is under center, more and more opportunities? Only time will tell and I'm eager to find out.
     
  37. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    It will be interesting and telling to see if the Fins' FG attempts jump way up this season. Here are the ranks the last decade:

    2018: 18/20, 31st
    2017: 21/23, 27th
    2016: 16/21, T-last
    2015: 13/16, T-last
    2014: 29/37, T-5th
    2013: 26/34, 12th
    2012: 23/30 T-23rd
    2011: 33/39, T-3rd
    2010: 30/41, T-1st
    2009: 25/28, T-17th

    Obviously, the numbers went way down in the chaos year of 2015 when Philbin and the coordinators were fired mid season. But then they stayed way down under Gase, far below the league average. Even Dolphins teams with a lousy offense who didn't score many touchdowns still would attempt field goals under Sparano and Philbin, but due to Gase's penchant for all or nothing possessions, that clearly wasn't the case the last few seasons. And then we'll get a much better idea of how good Sanders is, and if he's the guy to go forward with.
     
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