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How Likely is Josh Rosen to Turn Into a Good QB?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The Guy, May 28, 2019.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I was reading through OTA notes and Fitzpatrick is throwing an average of 10 TD passes per day...many of them pinpoint lasers just over Minkah or Xavien. For instance, the other day Rosen has a nice deep TD throw, Fitz came in the next play and chucked a 70 yard bomb that made everyone's jaw drop. It's still super early but I don't see Fitzpatrick being out-played in camp/preseason, so this Rosen conversation is being handled the right way by coaches...he's being allowed to compete without being promised anything. Maybe he gets some playing time but he's definitely going to earn it.
     
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  2. Miamiforlife

    Miamiforlife Active Member

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    They are in shorts and t-shirts. With no hitting. I read cutler was real good in the same situations. Fitz had more time to learn the system. And he has been around the league a long time and probably catches on quicker with his experience. Also fitz is real smart which would also help you learn the system quicker.
     
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  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree with you...it's way too early to determine anything from the practices. However, all QB's are in shorts/tees and all of them weren't throwing 10+ TD's a day. So Fitz is clearly leading early (for whatever that's worth).
     
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  4. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Is there any way to measure or predict this?

    Nope.

    So it's a question we're all interested in but the only definitive answer is - let's watch and find out.
     
  5. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Fitzpatrick had a tremendous season last year, so there’s that as well.
     
  6. Miamiforlife

    Miamiforlife Active Member

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    I have to admit the 10 touchdowns sounds real impressive. Since before this year all we heard was the offense can’t do chit in camp. And fitz had a good season last year? Did you mean camp or first few games. I thought he was awful after a great start? I don’t feel like googling it. I think both fitz and rosen are leaps and bounds above tannehill. I rooted for Tanny. But he is not a good pro qb so far in his career. He is very frustrating. As he had good mobility and a strong arm. Just can’t control the game like a great qb should.
     
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  7. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He played in eight games. Three of them featured a performance that could beat almost any team at any time, and two of those were against good competition. One of his games was average. Two of them were below average. And two of them were terrible.

    He essentially played a high risk, high reward style in which he passed for a very high number of yards per attempt, but also had too high an interception rate.

    If he played more conservatively and shaved off a yard and a half from his number of yards per attempt and it resulted in throwing perhaps 50% the rate of interceptions, he would be performing among the best two or three quarterbacks in the league.
     
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  8. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    There are many ways to measure Rosen’s potential and predict his future performance.
    - Film study
    - Statistical analysis
    - Analysis of coaching/scheme fit.
    - Analysis of team talent.
    - Physical measurements such as height, hand size and ball velocity.
    - Running ability.
    - Personality traits.
    - Pocket presence
    - opinions of experts
    - Magic 8-ball.

    The problem is that NFL performance, especially at QB, is a chaotic environment with many dynamic variables. If there was a simple and easy predictive method everyone would be using that. Now sometimes a person’s system is right so they use that as evidence that their system is valid and reliable, and when their system is wrong they find a reason to discount that outcome as being an outlier or due to a specific situation.
     
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  9. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    So..... you agree.
     
  10. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I think that people who think that starting the QB who gives us the best chance to win are kind of misguided.

    Think about this. If at any point in the season, I told you that you could set the Dolphins' lineup any way you want, and if the Dolphins win, I will give you a million dollars. If I were placed in that scenario, I would pick Fitzmagic 100% of the time. It is simple. Fitz is a 13 year vet. He threw as many TDs in his first three years as Rosen has thrown in his entire career. Fitz has played for what feels like half the league, is Ivy league educated, and has played in many different systems. Fitz is out playing Rosen because he is better than Rosen.

    Fitz is also a known commodity. He will ball out some games but will ultimately turn the ball over just too many times. The hope is that Rosen will eventually be better than Fitz. They talk about how things eventually slow down for QBs and things just click. I think you need to see that clicking happen on the field and not in practice.

    I am not sure how active you guys are on Twitter, but there are some fans that have posted some clips of Rosen doing some really impressive things on the field while in Arizona. There are the flashes that I remember seeing from in college. It definitely feels like he belongs on the field. It is just a matter of stringing more of those positive plays together, and getting him to read the field faster. He definitely does not look lost out there or like he is in over his head. He looked like a rookie.

    We aren't winning the Super Bowl this year. We aren't a playoff team. I have zero problem with calling this the Rosen evaluation period. My expectations are tempered, and I implore you guys to adapt the same bar for evaluation. I wanna see Rosen string together a stretch of solid games. Whether it is 4 or 5 in a row or 4 out 5. I wanna see a relatively high level of play with consistency. I really wanna give him the largest sample size possible (16 games) and as many opportunities as we can give him to get that light bulb to go on in his head. Honestly, I do not care if comes out week 1 and throws 5 INTs. Whatever. Let's see how he is playing around week 12 - 16 and go from there.

    I'm telling you guys. He is getting a chance, but it is NOT A FAIR CHANCE. If he doesn't have some solid film and solid games, we are drafting a QB in the first round next year. I think the fairest thing we can do is give him 16 chances and have realistic expectations.
     
  11. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I agree with your conclusions but not your reasoning.
     
  12. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    This is basically a very concise way to say what I've been trying to. Thank you 1000% lol

    Separate note:

    If Rosen showed absolutely no flashes of talent as a rookie I'd be concerned. Yet he actually did show flashes of doing everything an NFL QB needs to.

    What wasnt there was any level of consistency in his play. That is where I begin to look at his situation a lot closer.

    Consistency is hard enough as a rookie without considering anything else but considering some of his rookie counterparts showed more consistency you go further.

    Josh Allen with his mobility is probably the only rookie from last year I see having more success than Rosen behind that line.

    Rosen is the type of QB that deals with pressure by sliding in the pocket and keeping his eyes down field. That is an amazing trait but unfortunately you need a pocket to move within and a way to slow down the rush. Rosen is a smart kid and if given the chance I'm sure he will be able to identify pressure pre-snap better with the right coaching as well to help his cause.

    The coaching carousel didnt help either. Think of this from the perspective of Rosen based on his personality. All these people who are supposed to be "teaching" him and helping him grow are being replaced. He has to start wondering if hes being taught the right things to succeed at this level and what he should be absorbing and what he shouldnt.

    Even if the system stays relatively the same between changes I'm sure he was still be tugged left and right with new ideas and advice before he had a chance to master the first set of them.

    Now I want to clarify I dont necessarily think he's a shoe in ti be successful. There are areas he definitely needs to improve in order to be successful. However, I feel if you want consistency you will never get it in chaos.

    My bottom line is let's see if a less chaotic situation promotes growth.
     
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  13. Miamiforlife

    Miamiforlife Active Member

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    Rosen is doing really good in camp I’m reading. It’s just fitz is killing it so far.
    So it appears we have two quarterbacks that are better than what we’ve had. Tannehill struggled in camp every year. And with flores hopefully having a big influence on our defense? Better wide receivers with Williams and the rest of the returning starters. Running backs are improved. Offensive line should be better. I think it’s possible we are actually a better team than last year? Tough schedule also. My rose colored glasses work good.
     
  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill was a BEAST in practice because his one weakness wasn't exposed...nobody was going to blindside him. That's why we have to take all this with a grain of salt.

    That being said, RT didn't have many 10+ TD days in shorts or otherwise. Fitzpatrick is doing it daily and that's an extremely good sign.

    Speaking of RT, I couldn't help but Google to see how he's doing in camp. No stats to be found, but he's struggling making the transition to a backup- https://www.titansonline.com/news/qb-ryan-tannehill-adjusting-to-a-new-role-with-the-titans
     
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  15. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The thing that Josh Allen did, that you could hang your hat on, and this is true of Lamar Jackson as well, is that he played to his strengths.

    The situation I hate with any draft prospect is you evaluate the guy and you determine what his strengths and weaknesses are and then he gets in the league and his strengths look like weaknesses, or his strengths look mediocre at this level. You want the strengths to show up legit.

    If you've got that going for you I think you will continue to have opportunities to rein in some of your worst habits, and have some of your limitations hidden by smart coaching.

    And the other thing that Josh Allen did, is he showed a classic learning curve. He was not the same quarterback at the end of his season as he was at the beginning.

    Remember, one of the reasons I liked Peyton Manning's rookie year was because he was a totally different guy after just his first month in the league. That first month was a disaster from an interceptions standpoint. But then the next 12 games he was a legit QB throwing for a bunch of touchdowns.

    Josh Allen played in 12 games. Here's the difference from his first 6 games to his last 6 games:

    First 6 Games: 75 of 139 for 832 yards, 2 TD, 5 INT, with 35 runs for 155 yards and 3 touchdowns, 21 sacks for -167 yards.
    Last 6 Games: 94 of 181 for 1,242 yards, 8 TD, 7 INT, with 54 runs for 476 yards and 5 touchdowns, 7 sacks for -46 yards.
    • The team went from scoring 12.7 points per game to scoring 22.0 points per game.
    • Josh Allen went from 9.4 fantasy points per game to 27.8 fantasy points per game.
    • He went from 137 net yards and 5.0 scoreboard points per game to 279 net yards and 13.0 scoreboard points per game.
    • He went from 4.2 net yards per attempt (Josh Rosen 2018 territory) to 6.4 net yards per attempt (Cam Newton 2018 territory).
    • His PFF cumulative grade went from -11.3 in the first 6 games to +2.7 in the last 6 games, which is a pretty big swing.
    Over the last 6 games of the season, Allen was the #1 QB in fantasy. And I get that people will deride the use of fantasy statistics but all they represent is production and production means quite a bit to NFL evaluators and contract negotiators. Allen produced.

    Sam Darnold is a tougher question in some ways, because he didn't have gaudy production at any point, really. He had an altogether better year than Josh Rosen did. People are gonna look at the passer ratings (78 vs 67) and say no big deal but I also look at the QBRs (48 vs 27) and I think that's a pretty big deal.

    Darnold had a far better passer rating (94) from a clean pocket. From that standpoint, Sam was closer to what Baker Mayfield (100) accomplished that way than he was to Rosen (81), Josh Allen (80), or Lamar Jackson (86).

    That's more important to look at with Darnold and Rosen than it would be for a Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen because you always figured the latter two win more when they're escaping the pocket than when they're clean inside the pocket.

    The question with Darnold is whether you saw a learning curve or not. He had a 73 passer rating in his first four games and a 99 passer rating in his last four games. He was sacked about the same but in his first month he scrambled 3 times for 9 yards, whereas the final month he scrambled 6 times for 61 yards.

    Darnold's cumulative PFF grade in the first month was -12.8 and his cumulative PFF grade in the final month was +10.2...which is an even larger swing than Josh Allen, albeit on a lower number of games (first four/last four as opposed to first six/last six).

    In fact, over the final four games of the season, Sam Darnold had the #2 passer rating in the NFL from a clean pocket. Which saddens me.

    Josh Rosen was still 2nd to last in the NFL over the same final month period. Which is unsurprising. He did not get better then entire year. He was bad from start to finish.

    Where does all of that come out?

    To me, I've consistently said this: I'm not picky, give me SOMETHING.

    Josh Allen gave you something. Sam Darnold gave you something. Lamar Jackson gave you something. Baker Mayfield definitely gave you something.

    The only one who did not was Josh Rosen. He was just lousy. He's got higher to climb. Doesn't mean he can't get there but it is what it is.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2019
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    This I don't get. It's totally self-serving.

    "I'm right, no matter what happens."

    Hell of a self-serving statement, when it comes to something predictive.
     
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  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Honestly I don't, because I've mostly focused my studies on SUCCESSFUL quarterbacks.

    So I guess I could pick out a few success stories (e.g. Jared Goff's) that would look somewhat similar to Rosen, should Rosen be a success as well.

    But the problem is there are LOADS MORE guys that started as rookies and were just bad quarterbacks, who probably compare a lot more favorably to Rosen and what he did in 2018, what he struggled with, etc. You know, the Cade McNowns and Patrick Ramseys of the world.
     
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  18. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    He will most likely be the pre-season week 1 starter. However, I dont think anything anyone does now can win them the job full time.
     
  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    How's that self serving? We had exactly zero franchise quarterbacks on the roster. Now we have one potential at $2M per year without giving up any 2019 picks. I can't imagine how anyone could see that as a negative move....even if we cut Rosen next season. He's still the cheapest experiment in the league at this time- where's the downside?
     
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  20. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    If I may, I'd suggest our reasoning is the same. I should, perhaps, have added "definitive" in my initial question/statement, 'is there is any definitive way..."

    There are ways to measure performance but there is no definitive way to answer the question for all the reasons you mentioned and more. I was just trying to keep it as succinct as possible.
     
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  21. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I’m not big on the “surrounding variables” perspective when it comes to quarterbacks, but would you say that Rosen’s surroundings in Arizona got worse as the season went on, and that it’s possibly an explanation for why there was no difference in his performance?
     
  22. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores

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    Personally, I am not going to count last year against Rosen. He gets a pass and a fresh start in my book. Flores said Rosen still has a lot to learn so I am going to give him time and wait until he has the offense down before I start holding him accountable. I am one of those that think it’s okay to give him time to learn and if he plays behind Fitzpatrick this year then that’s okay. When draft time rolls around we might need to take another QB to cover our bases, but that’s okay, too. If Rosen can’t win the job he is a resource we can trade away if we don’t want to keep him as the backup.
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2019
  23. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Honestly? Not particularly.
     
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  24. Makados10

    Makados10 Active Member

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    I just struggle with the philosophy on trading for Rosen. Dolphins traded Tannehill because they were tired of mediocrity. They tore down the team and would draft an elite QB next year. As a fan, I was perfectly happy riding with that philosophy in 2019. Arizona dumped Rosen, whom they had invested a #10 pick the year before, in order to upgrade their QB. If Cardinals thought Murray was a QB and the QBs next year are even better, why did spend draft capital on Rosen because of "value"? Sigh...
     
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  25. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Because the low cap hit, coupled with even just an average quarterback, is more valuable than a late second round pick. The Barnwell article linked earlier in the thread does a great job of explaining this.
     
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  26. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores

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    I think it’s a coach’s nature to always think they can coach a guy up. If Rosen can show a little something in pre-season then he should maintain or exceed his value even if Fitzpatrick beats him out. His season with the Cards is a mute point. He has gotten a fresh start here in Miami. It’s what he does from here that’s going to matter, IMO.
     
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  27. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    The highlighted portion of your post really sums up every NFL players situation neatly and accurately.

    This is a real time league and you must produce at the best level you can, while you can. Keep in mind that the NFL's motto should be: What have you done for me today?

    You will be graded purely on current results with the side dish for a possible coaching analysis that implies improvement is coming. That side dish wilts like a salad in the desert, so it may count for a little, but not very much.
     
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  28. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    Hey, there are some slight positives.

    It’s been brought up before but in the short time of Sam Bradford starting for the Cardinals he averaged 133 yards per game passing. The team as a whole scored an average of 6.6 points per game. And 2/3 of those games were at home. Bradford is better than that. That’s indicative of his supporting cast.

    Rosen blew the NFL away averaging 175 yards per game. The team as a whole scorched the rest of the NFL during Rosen’s tenure, compiling a scoring average of 15.76 points per game.
     
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  29. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    IMO his odds of becoming a good NFL QB are lower than guys like Grier or Findley or Stick.
     
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  30. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What these coaches need to start realizing is that they need a quarterback who can compensate for the coach’s mistakes, not a guy they can coach up. They’re putting the emphasis on the wrong side of the equation.
     
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  31. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Personally, I don't know how anyone could even attempt a rebuttal/contradiction to this post. Should've just locked the thread after it.
     
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  32. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    "Experimenting" doesn't inspire much confidence and not what this team should be doing. We wasted 7 years doing just that very thing with Tanny. We also can't play pretend as if it's the 2018 draft and they got Josh Rosen. He actually played a full season in the NFL. At the very least his experience in AZ might have broken what there might've been to work with.

    Tell you one thing, it appears the ability to make excuses for QB's is still alive and well with this fan base. Rosen has trended down since high school. He couldn't even cut it in a pathetically weak Pac-12 after being anointed as one of the next top college QB talents. Last year he showed nothing "exceptional" in his craft, not even pockets of it.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2019
  33. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Regarding the influence of supporting cast on a QB, one way to tell whether the supporting cast (including defense) is helping or hurting is to see whether the observed win% is higher or lower than expected given adjusted passer rating. Here's the data:

    [​IMG]

    Rosen's passer rating (no adjustment needed since it's already in 2018 numbers) was 66.7. Plug that into the equation and you get 22.62%, which when multiplied by 13/100 (Rosen started 13 games) becomes 2.94 expected wins. Rosen won 3 games so exactly as expected given his passer rating. So that's one piece of evidence that his supporting cast wasn't performing well above or well below the QB.

    Conversely, an example of where supporting cast mattered a lot: Brees in 2016 had a 101.7 rating which in 2018 becomes 105.8, and 105.8 in that equation gives you an expected 63.3% win%, which over 16 games is just over 10 wins. Brees had only 7 wins in 2016.

    One qualifier: those are team passer ratings so you don't have stats for extremely low or extremely high ratings. If you did one would probably see more of an S-shaped curve where things asymptote at the ends because you can't go below 0% or 100%. So you shouldn't use that equation for someone like Peyton Manning in 2015 where his 43.9 rating becomes a 45.2 rating in 2018, and that equation tells you he should have an expected win% of 0.26%.. or just around 0%!!! lol..
     
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  34. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I suspect the variable with far and away the biggest effect in that equation is passer rating surrendered by the team, perhaps even to the degree that all other variables are rendered statistically non-significant.

    Brees for example has been victimized by a terrible pass defense in several of his great seasons in the league. Nothing drags a team down like either a poor pass offense or a poor pass defense.

    At this point the league is all about the quarterback. You either have to have a very good quarterback while being at least average in pass defense, or you have to have at least an average quarterback while having a pass defense that can stop the very good quarterbacks. There is no team that’s doing well with neither of those.
     
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  35. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Point allowed is the biggest determinant. Average correlation between points allowed and win% across NFL history is a whopping -0.734. But you're right that after that it's passer rating allowed with an average correlation of -0.593.

    So yes that graph is measuring to a great degree the effect of the defense, but also of anything an offensive player does that does not affect passer rating too much (e.g., rushing yards per carry which has only a 0.152 correlation to passer rating, or fumbles lost, etc..)

    Either way, that graph is saying that Rosen was "equally" crap compared to the rest of the team.
     
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  36. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I completely disagree...I think you draft a QB every year until you hit on your guy. Honestly, I wouldn't care if Rosen or Fitzpatrick broke all of Marino's single season passing records in 2019....you still draft a young QB in 2020 and let him develop for 2-3 seasons. As we just saw the past three years, starters get hurt and every team NEEDS two starting caliber QB's on the roster. Either you pay a premium for a guy you think can fill that void when the starter goes down (AKA Cutler), or you suffer thru lackluster play until your guy heals up (AKA Osweiller).

    The third option is keeping a young stable of QB's who know the system and are continually improving- which is why I love the Rosen grab. As i said earlier, he doesn't need to be a 10-year HOF player for what we paid. The more guys like Luke Falk and Rosen you have floating thru your system, the better the odds that you'll eventually find that superstar.

    It's exactly like the lottery- the odds of winning are like 1 in 50 million. Yet the odds of winning when you don't buy a ticket are always zero...you can't win if you don't play the game.
     
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  37. Smeagol

    Smeagol New Member

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    Hi Guys,

    A long time Cardinal fan here, actually 52 years in the making. You guys have posted a lot of interesting comments about Rosen. Allow me to give you some info you may not have known from the disastrous 2018 AZ Cardinal season. As had been mentioned the Oline was a complete disaster that may have gone to unknown depths in the NFL before. All five starters were gone by game 7 and one before the season started. The team was signing guys off the street to start as backups on the roster who moved to starting positions were also going down at an incredible rate. Only the center played in all 16 games and the other four starters were all street guys. Rosen was pressured on 38% of his dropbacks and sacked 45 times in 13 games. That would work out to 55 sacks in a 16 game season.

    The WRs were just as unimpressive. Fitz and Kirk were the only two worth anything, the rest couldn't catch a cold and didn't know what separation meant. Fitz is not the same WR as he was in his prime. A step slower which is a big difference for him. Kirk didn't last the season going to IR so Rosen played his last 5 games with WRs that rally didn't belong on an NFL roster outside of Fitz. The TE position was non existent. The Cardinal WRs dropped 38 passes in 2018, 2nd most in the NFL.

    The offensive game plan was abysmal. It should have been thrown into the fiery chasm of Mordor never to return again. As incredible as this sounds the Cardinals ran between the guard and center over 70% of the time of all their called run plays. Second and 9-11 were not uncommon for the offense. Play action was an afterthought. The coaching staff was a hot mess last season in AZ. That is on Keim (GM) and Bidwill (owner).

    Are your concerns valid about Rosen? To some extent yes they are. Someone mentioned how long he takes to process and that is probably his biggest liability right now. If he can improve that and get the game to slow down for him, I believe he can still be a middle to upper tier starter. He has the physical traits and the intelligence.

    You may wonder what I think about our new coach and QB. I personally have concerns about both. Klingsbury never won at the college level and some say he seems to forget there are two units on a football team and one of them is called the defense. As many points as his teams put up on the board they were just as bad at giving them up. There are questions about his abilities as a game manager, not a strength he showed in college. As for Murray, despite what others may think his height or lack of it can be a liability as well as his short arms. It's highly unlikely he will see the same about of space to work with in the NFL as he saw in college. He played in a conference that was woefully short on defense. In fact the Big 12 only had 6 defensive players get drafted in the 2019 draft and only one was taken (2nd round) with the rest going in rounds 6 and 7. Four of his five Oline were drafted in 2019. He had outstanding WRs to throw to. In essence Murray was surrounded by superior talent.
     
  38. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thanks for the insight, and welcome to the board!
     
  39. Dolphin Dundee

    Dolphin Dundee Well-Known Member

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    Sep 27, 2015
    Don't forget about the Cards RB David Johnson what a fantasy bust he's been the past 2 years no help at all to Rosen.
     
  40. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    95,474
    47,842
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    Dec 20, 2007
    Imo your team did the right thing in selecting Murray, gonna be a star..
     
    Rock Sexton likes this.

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