Fun Little Read on Dolphins Making the Playoffs

It's a bit "Pie in the sky" but, better than "Tank for Tua".
I want to sit down for every game this season feeling confident that the good guys have a realistic shot at winning.

He also had Tunsil as an "average performer" at left guard, even though he played very solid and was a huge part of Ajayi running wild (with Albert Wilson's help, of course). That run game was really the difference in 2016.

That's a bad bet, but I guess that's one reason Vegas makes money. It's actually quite competitive now. I'd list at least 8 teams in the AFC most likely vying for 6 spots: Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Browns, Texans, Colts, Chiefs and Chargers. That's tough competition.

Right now Vegas thinks we'll win maybe 5 or so. Going through archived odds..
https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-odds/

you'll see the standard deviation of the difference between actual wins vs. expected total wins is about 2, meaning that about 2/3 of the time Vegas gets it right +-2 from what they list. For us to make the playoffs we'd need minimum 9 wins and probably 10, which puts you over 2 standard deviations away from expected which translates to at best a 1:20 chance you'd win this bet. That in turn translates to about a +2000 moneyline, yet he bet on a +1100 moneyline.

So just using historical data you can see it's a bad bet. I think maybe if the moneyline goes well above +2000 you can consider this bet.

Heh nice chart and the only reminder Harris is still on the team..But i guess Gase was right in one thing and that was dumping Ajayi.

"cbrad wrote:

That's a bad bet, but I guess that's one reason Vegas makes money. It's actually quite competitive now. I'd list at least 8 teams in the AFC most likely vying for 6 spots: Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Browns, Texans, Colts, Chiefs and Chargers. That's tough competition.

Right now Vegas thinks we'll win maybe 5 or so. Going through archived odds..
https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-odds/

you'll see the standard deviation of the difference between actual wins vs. expected total wins is about 2, meaning that about 2/3 of the time Vegas gets it right +-2 from what they list. For us to make the playoffs we'd need minimum 9 wins and probably 10, which puts you over 2 standard deviations away from expected which translates to at best a 1:20 chance you'd win this bet. That in turn translates to about a +2000 moneyline, yet he bet on a +1100 moneyline.

So just using historical data you can see it's a bad bet. I think maybe if the moneyline goes well above +2000 you can consider this bet.

Well, he did say himself that it's a bad bet and I agree with him- Miami's chances are slim to none. The only thing they have in their favor though is new formations/new coaching and that can sometimes earn a couple early wins people don't expect (AKA, 2016 when we started 1-5 then got hot).

I am not expecting it but hey, it's happened twice in recent memory for Miami and the other one was bringing in an older veteran QB who seemed past his prime like Fitz. If our defense drastically improves under the new coaching who knows.....maybe we can figure out our way to 9 wins somehow. To me, this is not the season schedule for that to happen though- it looks brutal.

Cute little article.

I think that its very possible that the skill positions on the offense are all better in 2019 than they were in 2016 if the guys stay mostly healthy. The offensive line was a mess then, and could very well be again this coming season.

On defense, the secondary is probably better this coming season than it was then. The ugly part is the front seven. Beyond Wake and Suh, the line underachieved that year, but that's the key - Wake and Suh. Two Pro Bowlers and then a bunch of guys who weren't pulling their weight is better than what we have now. I expect both the run defense and pass rush to be among the very worst in the league this coming season, and the pass rush in particular might be one of the worst in Dolphins history.

That being said, the 2016 team overachieved, and really shouldn't have made the playoffs. The team's talent level was closer to 6-10 than it was to 10-6, and they repeatedly pulled games out of their rear end that they had no business winning - something that Gase would continue to make a habit of. At the end of the season, the 2019 club might end up actually being better than the one from that season. But I don't expect them to come close to ten wins.

For me, the path as I see it for the bet to make sense:
1) Coaching addresses the OL woes.
2) Coaching covers the lack of DL talent through scheming.
3) someone steps up at QB.

Having one or two of those issues solved is possible, maybe even likely. Having all three happen is wishful thinking.

I honestly think our skill position talent (RB, WR, TE, LB, DB) is pretty good, especially if our coaching staff can get improvement out of the younger players in the roster.
I am hopeful that our game planning and scheming will be better than last year, based on the past experience of our coaching staff. Adam Gase May have been a genius at drawing up plays, but he couldn’t stitch a coherent game plan together.
Year 1 of any regime is usually a honeymoon period so the dysfunction we’ve seen between the FO and coaching staff with the Sparano/Philbin/Gase eras should be at a relatively low level. i.e. The dysfunction gets worse the longer the same individuals are in the same seats.

So if the big 3 questions (OL, DL and QB) can be answered positively then there rest of the parts seem to be in place to mount a playoff run. But it’s a bet I’d make with someone else’s money.

In 1969 the Dolphins went 3, 10 and 1.

in 1970 the Dolphins in Don Shula's 1st year went 10 and 4.

The similarities between Coach Flo and Coach Shula are in the details. They both stress less penalties, turnovers, better fundamentals of the game.

Just sayin

"Zigs wrote:

In 1969 the Dolphins went 3, 10 and 1.

in 1970 the Dolphins in Don Shula's 1st year went 10 and 4.

The similarities between Coach Flo and Coach Shula are in the details. They both stress less penalties, turnovers, better fundamentals of the game.

Just sayin

It's a good thing that Shula didn't decide to give up on Griese because of how he played before he got there, on some teams without a lot of help :up: Even a top 10 pick at QB can't do it all by himself. Turns out he and their young running backs might just have needed better coaching and blocking to blossom, eh?

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I think that its very possible that the skill positions on the offense are all better in 2019 than they were in 2016 if the guys stay mostly healthy. The offensive line was a mess then, and could very well be again this coming season.

On defense, the secondary is probably better this coming season than it was then. The ugly part is the front seven. Beyond Wake and Suh, the line underachieved that year, but that's the key - Wake and Suh. Two Pro Bowlers and then a bunch of guys who weren't pulling their weight is better than what we have now. I expect both the run defense and pass rush to be among the very worst in the league this coming season, and the pass rush in particular might be one of the worst in Dolphins history.

That being said, the 2016 team overachieved, and really shouldn't have made the playoffs. The team's talent level was closer to 6-10 than it was to 10-6, and they repeatedly pulled games out of their rear end that they had no business winning - something that Gase would continue to make a habit of. At the end of the season, the 2019 club might end up actually being better than the one from that season. But I don't expect them to come close to ten wins.

Oddly I disagree with the run and pass defense statement. I honestly believe we will be better in that regard than a lot of people think especially if we really get that level of coaching NE has had. Nobody’s turning them into a good defense and excellent at times

We need talent on the backend and edge, a good scheme and team defense can stymie a run game. I mean, these guy's know how to tackle and Flores has shown to put defenders in the right spots.

The difficulty this season as I see it, as it has been for the past several seasons, is that the team doesn’t have any offensive skilled position players who can be called one of the best in the league. That’s a major problem.

I like his optimism. With our schedule we may not get the wins, but I believe the challenges will make our team better for it in the long run.

Miami's home field advantage, since the roof was put in, is under rated. 16 and 8 at home the last three years. On teams that went 23 and 25 over all. 11 and 12 at home the three years prior to the roof, on teams that went 22 and 26 overall

And look at the schedule this season, 3 of the 4 games in September are at home, when the roof matters most.

"The Guy wrote:

The difficulty this season as I see it, as it has been for the past several seasons, is that the team doesn’t have any offensive skilled position players who can be called one of the best in the league. That’s a major problem.

I think that Drake is a top ten back, if given enough work. We'll see if the new staff uses him fully. There must have been a personality issue between he and Gase.

And if everyone in the passing game is healthy and used properly, then we should have a ton of options there who can be productive, even if none of them are among the best.

The problem is the line giving Rosen enough time and creating enough holes for the run game. It could really hinder the position players to a few levels below their potential.

I just don't see us making a playoff push this season, not impossible but not likely either. One thing that does bother me is the media says we don't have any players at the skill positions as their reasoning as to why we aren't going to be any good. I think that is hogwash, in fact I think we have plenty of horsepower at the skill positions on offense and pretty good pieces in the secondary as well. I still say this teams biggest Achilles heel is the lines on both sides of the ball. If we can get average play out of them I think this team has an outside chance at the playoffs.

I just don't see that as likely and I'm ok with that for this year as long as I can see some progress.

"The Guy wrote:

The difficulty this season as I see it, as it has been for the past several seasons, is that the team doesn’t have any offensive skilled position players who can be called one of the best in the league. That’s a major problem.

I don't see that a real negative if we have 5-6 above average players at key positions, and they all play at that level we would be much more versatile than just having one stud RB that we rely on game in and game out, If we are well-rounded we can flip the game plan weekly to the defensive teams weakness.

I think the biggest issue I see is in 2016, we had a top tier DE in wake and could get to the QB whereas I see that being a major issue with this years team. Maybe these coaches will get more out of less. I like seeing a different take than the typical rebuild article. I’m remaining patient as we all have for the better part of 2 decades and at least feel like this staff gets it. Time will tell

Zero analysis done on the most important position he's comparing from 2016 to 2019 which is, of course; the QB position. Say whatever you want about Ryan Tannehill but he was playing lights out in 2016 before the injury. To casually suggest that journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick and still yet to prove he's not a bum Josh Rosen can easily replace that production is ridiculous. Possible? Sure. Likely? I don't think so.

"Aqua4Ever04 wrote:

Jason's an awesome writer. He did such a great job on the site last year that I extended an invite to him to come to Miami to cover that Bills and Pats games. He got to see the Miami Miracle from the press box as a result of his great work on Locked On Dolphins.

If I can give you a weekly rant/analysis and join you in the press box for a game, count me in! LOL, I do that here each week anyways and I'd love an excuse to come down south once a year.

"MonstBlitz wrote:

Zero analysis done on the most important position he's comparing from 2016 to 2019 which is, of course; the QB position. Say whatever you want about Ryan Tannehill but he was playing lights out in 2016 before the injury. To casually suggest that journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick and still yet to prove he's not a bum Josh Rosen can easily replace that production is ridiculous. Possible? Sure. Likely? I don't think so.

tanny was playing lights out?
Hmmm. Never seen tannehill play what i would call lights out. He had a couple decent games stat wise. But lights out? Hardly imo. 400 yards and 5 td a game. Never. He threw for 2995 yards and 19 td’s in 13 games. 12 ints. 93.5 rating hardly lights out stats. More like great game manager stats. He would of choked in the playoff game any way. Imo

"MonstBlitz wrote:

Zero analysis done on the most important position he's comparing from 2016 to 2019 which is, of course; the QB position. Say whatever you want about Ryan Tannehill but he was playing lights out in 2016 before the injury. To casually suggest that journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick and still yet to prove he's not a bum Josh Rosen can easily replace that production is ridiculous. Possible? Sure. Likely? I don't think so.

Fitzpatrick actually played much better in 2018 than Tannehill did in 2016, when you consider that, once again, Tannehill was making his living against inferior competition, whereas Fitzpatrick was not.

"The Guy wrote:

Fitzpatrick actually played much better in 2018 than Tannehill did in 2016, when you consider that, once again, Tannehill was making his living against inferior competition, whereas Fitzpatrick was not.

This is true. Counting ties as 0.5 wins the average win% of Tannehill's opponents in 2016 was 43.5% while the average win% of Fizpatrick's opponents in 2018 was 53.5%. The two QB's had not too dissimilar ratings once you adjust to a common year (2018) but do not take into account opponent strength: Tannehill's 93.5 rating in 2016 becomes a 97.3 rating in 2018 while Fitz had a 100.4 in 2018.

But going back to this graph from an earlier post:
https://www.thephins.com/threads/how-likely-is-josh-rosen-to-turn-into-a-good-qb.94337/page-2#post-3176711

you can see that 1 passer rating point in 2018 corresponds to a 1.04% change in win%, so Tannehill's "opponent-adjusted" rating in 2018 (adjusting to an average opponent in 2018) would be about 90.5 instead of 97.3 and Fitz's would be about 104 instead of 100.4. So if the conversation is just about comparing these 2 years then yeah 13.5 passer rating points is a big difference.

However.. opponent strength averages out over many years so you really don't need to worry about it much when comparing careers. Weighted average 2018-adjusted career ratings for Tannehill and Fitzpatrick are 91.3 and 87, respectively, so overall Tannehill is slightly better than Fitzpatrick over his career. For comparison, 92.9 is the league average in those calculations (2018 league average).