I'd let our last offseason free agent, the cornerback from the Cardinals (what'shisname?), play safety with Jones. I heard he's even better at safety anyway. I just know there's gonna be a slew of potential quality receivers in the second round. I wouldn't mind putting two young studs in the stable. I'd also hedge my bets that Coyle can make a passable secondary from whatever. Hell, I might even package picks for Manti Te'o, Bjoern Werner, maybe even Mingo...However, Mingo may fall to us anyway. I might package 2nd rd. picks for Keenan Allen in the late first. First things first, though. Gotta see what Ireland nets in free agency...
IMO this is one of the best safety drafts in years. I'd hate to miss out on one of them like we did when there was one of the best TE drafts ever a few years back.
About 50% of that is not very realistic, IMO. Not trying to nitpick, just saying I really don't think half of those options come at the price tag or draft pick you have them at.
It's possible. I'm old and think everything today is too expensive. I still remember when pay phones cost a dime. Now most people can't recall the last time they saw a pay phone.
Just saying particularly if you're setting your ceiling for Randy Starks at $4 million a year be prepared to lose him. If you're setting your ceiling on Eric Winston at $5 million a year, be prepared to lose him. If you're setting your ceiling on Jared Cook at $1 million a year be prepared for him not to even return your phone call. Matt Elam at 2A (given that this figures to be around #44-47 overall) is iffy at best. I fully believe that Stedman Bailey at 2B (which should be pick #55-60) will probably not happen. I'm also fairly confident Marcus Trufant at 3A will not happen, and Shayne Skov at 3B is again iffy at best.
We'll see. Starks is making $3.73 mill this year. Winston was at about $5.5 per before he was cut. Cook might be light, but TE's without huge numbers often are. Graham signed his 4 year/ $2.45 Mill deal just two years ago. Cook's current deal has him making about $600k. I don't know that any of these guys should be expecting significant raises. As for the draft, I think Elam will post average combine numbers and that and his position will drop him. Non-physical specimen safeties rarely go in the first. I think most of the WRs will drop in this draft. Unless Bailey moves up near the top of the WR group, I would say 2B is about right. I debated putting him at 3A actually. Trufant may or may not make it to our 3A, but I wouldn't be surprised if he made it to the third round. I think Skov will go in the third, but I wouldn't be shocked if he made it to the fourth round either.
Randy Starks has been outplaying the contract he signed in 2008 for years, and he's done so patiently. You can't just look at his current salary and say well he should make about the same. He's going to want upwards of $6-7 million a year. Paul Soliai is making $6 million a year and he plays 25% fewer snaps than Randy. And I don't think your way of thinking on Jared Cook is appropriate in the slightest, as far as comparison with his $600k rookie salary is concerned. I doubt that's even a point anyone raises in the negotiations. Jared Cook will be about 26 years old and he'll have probably caught for over 1300 yards in 2011 & 2012. I'm not sure what contract you're talking about with Daniel Graham. As primarily a blocking tight end with New England, he signed a 5 year, $30 million deal with the Denver Broncos in 2007 and was released in 2011. He then signed a 3 year, $8.25 million deal with the Titans in 2011 even though he was 33 years old and over the previous two seasons had caught for just 442 yards with Denver. He was 33 years old, a one-dimensional blocker, widely considered a bust of a signing with the Broncos, and he still got $2.75 million a year. So what does that suggest a 26 year old, athletic Jared Cook will get coming off two seasons where he combined for 1300+ yards with the likes of Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker throwing the football? By the way I thought this was strange but I just took your word for it...why do you have Eric Winston as a free agent? Didn't he sign a 4 year deal worth $22 million with the Chiefs? He's still on their roster that I know of. You feeling ok today?
Never a truer sentence has been uttered. If we can't sign Starks, can't we just poach another one from Jeff Fisher's squad. He's silly with d-linemen... I don't know if any of this year's top 10 WR's are going to be considered a reach in the second round. I'd take a flyer on Arizona WR Dan Buckner in the 6th. I've seen him play, I don't know how technically savvy he is but I know he's big and graceful.
I can't see Jake Long leaving. I just can't. Let's say we have 45M in cap room. We have to squirrel away 7M for the draft class. So 38M. Matt Moore and Mastrud are obviously gone. I think we'll see Long, Smith, Clemons, and Hartline kept (I'm guessing 13M, 6M, 4M and 4.5M respectively, so 27.5M together). That leaves us with 10.5M. Bush is gone IMO, we drafted Lamar Miller to take his place. Starks is 50/50, depends on the price (he'll want 5 or 6M), which probably means he's gone too. McDaniel falls into that category as well (he'll want 3-5M), he's a free agent, right? I think Ireland is confident in his abilities to scout the defensive line and replace either one. Rightly so, cut em loose. We now have 10.5M. That price right there is a Greg Jennings plus a couple shot in the dark types. I don't think we land Jennings however (or Mike Wallace for that matter). But I think bringing in a veteran receiver to teach the young ones is a must. Donald Driver might be that guy. I would put Cliff Avril and Andy Levitre at the top of Ireland's wish list. You can't get both, and Avril alone eats up the remaining dough. For my money, I'm betting on Avril. The game changer in all of this is obviously Jake Long. If you let him walk, there are lots of directions you can go.
I would hate to retain Chris Clemons at $4 million a year. Just being honest. Also one thing to note is whatever the salary cap space in 2013 was scheduled to be before, it shrank when they claimed Dimitri Patterson. Spotrac says his base salary in 2013 is $4.5 million. So if they don't cut him, essentially they've just spoken for $4.5 million of whatever was in the free agent bank. My guess is that they'll cut Richard Marshall, shaving about $3.4 million off the cap figure, then keep Dimitri Patterson at a cost of $4.5 million. The net effect will be shrinking our cap space by about $1 million. However, myself and others have floated the idea of retaining Marshall to play free safety. If that is the case then the Dolphins will have already essentially spent $4.5 million of whatever was set to be available next year.
I heard Ireland was running to the podium to put his claim on Miller. I think Bush is out simply because Miller was available. I'm on board with the rest of your post, though. Sounds about right to me.
These roster figures are unexact but if youre asking me to remake the roster for 2013 with roughly 50M in cap, our picks and free agent signings then this is whats its going to look like (Salary numbers taken here http://nfldraftwizard.com/?p=2961 ): *Salary Cap is assumed to be 121M *Italics denotes draft pick *Bold denotes FA signing QB: 1. Ryan Tannehill 2.9M 2. Matt Moore 1.75M 3. Jordan Rodgers (Round 7) 500K Position Total: $5,515,000 Tannehill is the unquestioned starter and while I didn't want to spend 1.75M on Moore he is as good as any backup who will be available and better then some bigger names like Jason Campbell or Rex Grossman. I didnt want to invest an early pick on a QB with more pressing needs so I invested a late pick in Aaron Rodgers little brother who isnt nearly the player Aaron is right now but hes got some room to grow in my opinion. I was impressed with some of the things he did watching him live with a moderate supporting cast and I figured this team will probably copy the Packer model which includes drafting QB's late and trying to build their value and trade them. RB/FB: 4. Lamar Miller 601K 5. Daniel Thomas 880K 6. Jonas Gray 481K 7. Marcus Thigpen 482K 8. Charles Clay 483K 9. Marcus Lattimore (Round 5 - Will need to be IR'ed for 2013 in all probability) 500K Position Total: $3,427,000 As I have stated Im cool with going in to the next year with Miller and Thomas as starters and giving Marcus Thigpen and Jonas Gray more of a role. I think the big plays Bush has had are replaceable mainly by Miller but also by Thigpen. I also invested in our future workhorse by drafting Marcus Lattimore who will be the best back from this class. People will always be short-sighted and pass him over though because he probably wont play next year. Clay will be our new every down FB when we use one. WR: 10. Mike Wallace (Signed to 5 years/50M/17.5M bonus) 10M 11. DeAndre Hopkins (Round 2...or Cordarrelle Patterson) 875K 12. Davone Bess 3.4M 13. Da'Rick Rogers (Round 4) 650K 14. Rishard Matthews 492K Position Total: $15,417,000 I made this position a priority, specifically adding size. We need to help our young QB and by adding 3 receivers who are talented and all over 6'1.5" we opened the jump ball option up. I was tempted to invest a 1st in Terrence Williams or Keenan Allen and not invest in Wallace but opted to spend more on Wallace then Bowe or Jennings will cost. Hopkins is a good compliment to him imo as he's refined his route running and getting better still. Rogers might have been a first round pick if he didnt have a Dez Bryant like attitude concern. I dont think its quite that bad and ex Vols Coach Derek Dooley is out of a job in part because he didnt know how to run a program or get results. 16. Dustin Keller (Signed to 5 years/23M/8M bonus) 4.6M 17. Anthony Fasano 2M 18. Joseph Fauria (Round 6) 75K 19. Michael Egnew 652K Position Total: $7,727,000 The TE position means too much to this offense to not reinvest and start from basically scratch. We need a TE who threatens teams down the field. Keller is a very good TE with a terrible QB. He can play some H-Back as well. I retained Fasano as a FA cause he's a beast as a blocker and a strong TE2. Plus since Keller can play H-back Fasano gives a legit option in those formations. I also invested a 6th in Joseph Fauria who is the nephew of former NFL TE Christian Fauria. At 6'7"/260 hes already a good blocker with the frame to be better and he can get downfield. OL: 20. Jon Martin LT 1.1M 21. Omoregie Uzzi LG 875K 22. Mike Pouncey C 2.5M 23. Richie Incognito RG (Moved to RG) 5.4M 24. Gosder Cherilus or Sebastian Vollmer RT (Signed to 5 year/26M/10M guaranteed) 5.2M 25. John Jerry 790K 26. Kevin Boothe (Reserve G/RT) 900K 27. Winston Justice (Reserve LT) 1.1M Position Total: $17,865,000 As you can see I re-worked this OL. I left 3 of the main pieces the same though I moved some positions around to more traditional roles. Incognito is a phone booth guard at this point. He struggles in space a bit. Putting him next to either Cherilus or Vollmer is a good investment and makes the right side of our OL a very strong run blocking unit. Pouncey is still an elite C. I think Martin can be above average especially after a year in the league and another offseason in the weight room. Get this kid stronger and keep his agility and footwork and the money being saved from Jake is basically getting us Wallace and resigning Fasano. I went for veteran reserves who have experience. DL: 28. Wake RDE 5M 29. Odrick RDT 1.9M 30. Soliai LDT 7.9M 31. Sam Montgomery 1st round 2.5M 32. Olivier Vernon 670K 33. Kheeston Randall 495K 34. Randy Starks 5.25M (Resigned to 4 years/21M/8M guaranteed) 35. Derrick Shelby 481K Position Total:$24,196,000 Some will see the dollar amount allocated to the position and cringe but to me this is the 2nd most important position after QB. Some would argue that I'm undervaluing Randy Starks in FA but for a guy known as a pass rusher hes not rushing the passer at all the last 7-8 games and Im not sure if theres an injury or hes lost a step. Some would also argue that investing a 1st in a DE when we have strong depth there is not good asset allocation but in my opinion hes the best pass rusher in the draft and phenomenal value at the 12-15 range. Damontre Moore and Bjoern Werner will go ahead of him I hope but Montgomery just played a year after ACL surgery and hes a stud in the making. He should be in his prime as Wake declines giving us quite a tandem. Plus I fully expect Vernon to get better. LB: 36. Dansby 8.6M 37. Burnett 5.7M 38. Misi 1.1M 39. Josh Kaddu 480K 40. Jonathan Freeny 480K 41. Nick Roach 1.2M 42. Brady Poppinga 900K Position Total: $18,460,000 Poppinga and Roach will strengthen the depth of the unit while Roach can push Misi. Could turn the LB unit from good to great. I expect Kaddu especially to progress in to a prominent backup role. CB/Safety 43. Sean Smith (Resigned for 5 years 25M/10M guaranteed) 5.0M CB2 44. Dominique Rogers Cromartie (5 years/27.5M/11M guaranteed) 5.5M per CB1 45. Richard Marshall FS 5.8M 46. Reshad Jones SS 615K 47. Desmond Trufant (Round 2) CB3 925K 48. Nolan Carroll 622K CB4 49. Jamar Taylor 750K 50. Yeremiah Bell 1M SS2 51. Jimmy Wilson 566K FS2 Position Total: $20,778,000 While this unit might still lack a big hitting presence its much better at playing the ball then this years unit and that was a primary focus for me. I wanted a fast CB with good cutting ability like DRC to shadow faster wr's. Upgrading the 3-4-5 on the team and finding quality depth here was also a priority. Also at FS and SS we added talent who can play on ST's and you'll notice Richard Marshall is now playing where he should have been all year. Special Teams: 52. John Denney 1M 53. Brandon Fields 1.7M 54. Shayne Graham 1.5M Position Total: 4.2M Fields is excellent. Graham is at least above average and doesnt have the choke gene like Kaeting. Someone has to be a long snapper so I guess a roster spot on Denney is a necessity. 1st Round - Sam Montgomery - DE - LSU 2nd Round (Assigned) DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson 2nd Round (Colts) - Desmond Trufant CB Washington 3rd Round - Omoregie Uzzi LG Georgia Tech 3rd Round (Chicago) - Jamar Taylor CB Boise State 4th Round - Da'Rick Rogers WR Tennessee/Tennessee Tech (transferred to Tech) 5th Round - Marcus Lattimore RB South Carolina 6th Round (Colts) - Joseph Fauria TE UCLA 7th Round - Jordan Rodgers QB Vanderbilt Total 54 players (1 IR'ed) $117,585,000 and a team talented enough to win a championship.
quick point to the above, I think Olivier Vernon will be the one challenging Misi for the SLB/hybrid role, if he hasn't already begun doing so.
But hes a pro bowl alternate so he has to be good! Truth is hes been pretty good but we keep him in line a lot and dont pull him. On tbe right side hed be right at home. And not for nothing he would get that in FA because there are enough teams desperate for OL help.
well, if I didn't have to go to the bathroom when I started reading it, I do now by the time I've finished it. Good read, Matt. I'd be tickled to have Wallace, Rogers, and Hopkins added to receiver, Keller to TE, and stealing Vollmer from New England.
After watching him get a piece of Spiller, you might be right. I always thought he would push Odrick inside and take the DE position.
Well let us begin with a given: You cannot keep everyone Smith, Starks, Bush, solid solid players, all on the bubble. Starks is probably thinking this is his last large contract, don't blame him, we cannot afford him Bush is in the same boat, had another solid playmaking year, reality is, we drafted Miller and have Thigpen SS24, as much as I personally like him, suspect Coyle does a fine job with solid, and cheaper corners Should keep: Hartline, at the "right price" Garner v Long, tough call, objectively both are injury prone and both have natural replacements in Jerry and Martin Fasano, good player, at a good deal keep him No idea Tony McD, maybe a poor man's Starks, maybe not Clemons, hard to keep a Safety who is good, but does not create turnovers Cap hits: Richie I, good year esp when Long went out, but 4.6 millie? Dansby, pricey pricey, leader etc etc, this is a cold biz, real problem is no natural replacement in house, suspect he stays Marshall, have to stay healthy in this league Patterson, he and Marshall are natural replacements for Smith, could be we keep just 1 of them. If we think about it both will have played in close to the same number of games the difference is Patterson had some issues in Cleveland w/Attitude. IMO Starks stays if they plan on letting Hartline walk. Suspect Ireland also may feel he has a good eye for DT talent, and wonder why Kheeston Randall disappeared.
Yeah, I agree with your "cold hard business of the NFL" take on this offseason Padre. I'd agree Reggie and Starks should leave if they are offered big paydays. I'd try and keep them if I could. I just can't see us getting rid of Hartline, unless he's cut after drafting a glut of receivers. He's too smart and savvy... . . . Aw hell, I'm just happy we got a decent QB and HC...
Youre probably right but hes getting a 6-7 round grade from CBS: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2013/TE Personally I thought that was low but too good to pass up. And hey, if that was the only problem you had with my offseason plan I guess I did ok
There are other parts I don't feel are realistic (Vollmer or Cherilus leaving their respective teams, Winston Justice at only $1.1 million, Nick Roach for only $1.2 million, Anthony Fasano re-signing for only $2 million, Randy Starks re-signing for only $5.3 million, Sean Smith re-signing for only $5.0 million, Miami having interest in Mike Wallace, Miami and Yeremiah Bell having mutual interest in re-uniting just to make Bell a backup)...but I didn't really want to rain on anyone's parade. There are also some things in there I don't deem all that wise, such as Sam Montgomery in the 1st round, signing Dustin Keller to a $4.6 million a year long term contract, counting on late 3rd round pick Omoregie Uzzi to be your starting left guard, counting on Daniel Thomas to pair with Lamar Miller as your primary backfield options, etc. But the thing that stood out to me most is a guy that should find his way into the 3rd or maybe even 2nd round falling all the way to the 6th.
Nice post Boik! I don't agree with everything but I appreciate the work. I don't want to get into the details of what salary is or is not likely. I see these as more of an exercise in the general philosophy of team building rather than on the specific players that will be targeted in FA. I would prefer to resign Hartline whom I really like as a #2 and use that second pick to target one of the many very good safety prospects in this draft. I do agree that we need to target a #1 WR and would also pay a slight premium for Wallace over Jennings or Bowe. I did like the use of our #1 on pass rusher, but I have Montgomery further down my list of desirables. I'm still hoping that Barr declares (it has been rumored that he might come out after all despite the earlier announcement that he was staying).
You have just pretty much explained why people think Ireland doesn't go after talent. He probably targets them, but undervalues them and misses out on a lot of them. On the other hand, in FA this is smart and its why we have lots of cap space. On the other other hand, in the draft he still manages to waste picks on guys like Pat Turner and potentially Michael Eggnog (time will tell). Jeff is stingy about value. Champagne tastes, champagne budget, beer thriftiness.
Jeff Ireland is extremely disciplined relative to his valuations. That's usually a good thing. But then, it's only as "good" or "bad" as your valuations.
Avril will be asking for double digits per year. No way Ireland pays that. He has been spoilt be his own ability to pick a Cam Wake off the thrift-bin. A month ago I say jake leaves because of his salary far outstripping his performance. But, his injury and Martins adequacy (let's not give him more credit than that) have given the Dolphins leverage. Also, the second round if the draft has lots of O line value. McDaniel should have been flipped for a pick early in the year, IMO, since he was not seeing enough snaps to justify missing out on what could have been a 4th or 5th round pick IMO. The sternocleidoMastrud stays.
Wouldn't want YBell anyway. Starks is in a position like Haynesworth was, last big $$ contract, he won't take below market to stay, and we should not overpay him as his value as a player vs value to the team direction are not aligned, ie, good luck Randy. For value sakes, it would be more efficient to keep McD at half the price of Starks. SS24 as well, he will rightly claim he played every snap since a rookie, Ireland will rightly claim that is nice, but you don't create turnovers, never have, good luck Sean. Bush has produced, he has a high value as a player and to the direction of the team, but we have natural replacements on the roster, Miller, Thigpen perhaps Gray, or some UDFA. Hartline is a different case, no natural replacements, career best yr, he will be resigned. Jake is a different case, two years in a row finished on the IR and struggled when he was playing, objectively they should let him walk.
Its cool, I dont take it as raining on my parade. I respect yours and other opinions that have proved intelligent over the years. -Eh, there are a lot of times we don't think a player will leave and then they don't get offered what they think they are worth and they are gone. I think Cherilus will leave because Schwartz isn't well liked by anything I've read/heard. I think Vollmer may leave because Im not sure will pay a RT what he wants. -Justice isnt a starters material. He struggled to find a job this year. -Every year some vets find the market tougher then they expect. I think it could happen to Roach and Fasano neither of which has had a very good year. I suspect if its not those two players specifically it will be players similar to them. -Starks hasnt been the same player the last few games. His pressures and sacks are down and his motor doesnt seem to be there. Almost like hes playing not to get hurt. Its going to drag his value down imo. -Smith just isnt worth much more. I do have a about 3.9M left under my cap so if I offered him 6M I could swing that too. -I like Thomas and Miller as our thunder and lightning. Theres room to grow for both players and you dont trade up for RB's where we picked them unless you think theyre going to contribute. As has been said, its a plug and play position and imo, especially Miller, can play. I think youre not gong to see us invest a lot dollar wise in the RB position. Just a hunch. - Uzzi is imo the second best guard in the draft. Hes strong, agile and he can play in space. He is the ideal LG. I have veteran insurance as well in case hes a little too raw to play right away - I realize Im higher on Montgomery then most but I dont think we have seen the best of him yet. hes a year removed from ACL surgery and he only played 3 games because of the injury the year prior. So the last time you saw him at full speed was 2 years ago and he looked like an elite prospect then. I like him more then Mingo, Werner or Moore. - I signed Keller at 4.6M The TE Franchise Tag is 5.9M. Hes coming off a down year. IMO someone is getting him cheaper then you think. The philosophy is what I was after moreso then particular players. It was also players with that particular skillset.
We have to figure out a way to get something in return for Jake Long. I have finally accepted the fact that we can't afford to keep him but we can't just let him walk either. It is imperative that we get something even if its a lot less than we think he is worth. If it involves tagging him or whatever it must be done. I truly believe that is where we have failed as a franchise in trading and drafting players and letting them walk without compensation. I realize a lot of them were not worth compensation but we have to know who is and who isn't worth compensation and not just letting them walk. I really like Jake Long and refuse to debate the Jake Long, Matt Ryan issue but I also know we have to be realistic about the money and risks involved.
The problem we're going to run in to with trying to get something for Jake Long is that the tag for OL is asinine. You really risk being stuck with a 14 million dollar LT if you franchise him and that is going to hamper your plans significantly as well as put Martin back at a position that honestly hes basically a turnstile at. I like Jake as well but it might just be wise to see if we cant just get a comp pick for him. The time to deal him was at the deadline this year. You would have gotten at least a 3 for him, maybe more, and the other team would have had time to negotiate a new deal. I'm sure the Bears, Packers, NYG, and a least a few others would have offered something good.
