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WRs don't make great draft investments

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by cobrajet, Apr 5, 2010.

  1. cobrajet

    cobrajet Mr. Ross - sell the team!

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    According to the Miami Herald.....

    "The folks at Draftmetrics studied NFL drafts from 1990-2009, and in those 20 years the return on so-called skill position players was bad and the return on wide receivers was, well, horrible. Of the 677 wide receivers selected in the 20 years only 32 percent of them have enjoyed careers of five years or more."

    http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolp...eivers-dont-make-great-draft-investments.html

    If Draftmetrics knows this you can bet Parcells knows it too. I have always thought that it was better to draft other positions and acquire established WRs, of course, everyone's opinion will vary.

    I have never shared the opinion that we should draft a WR in the first couple of rounds. I think those rounds have defensive secondary written all over them.
     
    cdz12250, gafinfan, the 23rd and 3 others like this.
  2. Rhody Phins Fan

    Rhody Phins Fan Well-Known Member

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    The problem with that is if it is so hard to draft wide receivers then the cost of acquiring one that actually turned out well will be exorbitant.
     
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  3. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    Wide receivers have the highest bust rate of any positon, particularly when taken in the first round. This is a very overrated position in terms of importance to the overall performance of your offense.
     
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  4. bluehaze

    bluehaze New Member

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    If anyone knows this it's us we've seen it first hand with Ted Ginn and to a lesser degree with just about any receiver we've drafted in the last 10 years or so. It's why I think it makes no sense to draft a receiver in the first round this year when Marshall is there for the taking and already a proven elite receiver in the NFL.
     
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  5. Phinatic425

    Phinatic425 MIA State of Mind

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    Dez Bryant won't be a bust

    I could have told you that Ted Ginn would be a bust...his only upside was his kick returns, I was never impressed with his recieving skills in college
     
  6. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

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    My opinion is that opinions are over-rated. :up:
     
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  7. 2k5

    2k5 I miss Ted Ginn Jr.

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    Ginn will beat the curve! He'll be in the league more than 5 years, chalkin it up as a success. :lol:
     
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  8. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I not only couldve told people about Ginn, I DID tell people. They just didn't listen.
     
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  9. bluehaze

    bluehaze New Member

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    LOL your probably right, the worst part is he'll probably be a Dolphin for all 5 of them :tantrum:
     
  10. Anonymous

    Anonymous Well-Known Member

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    Congragulations.

    Anyway, if we pass on Dez, expect Henne to regress and this entire offense to regress.
     
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  11. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    I still don't think it's over for Ginn. He's NEVER had issues with his hands in the past, and he really showed great improvement in other areas. He gets another year from me. If he doesn't do more this season, that is when I probably give up on him. Or rather don't count on him.

    Also theres no point. I told everyone about Matt Leinart but hey, you win some you lose some. I think everyone can point out a few guys they pegged correctly.
     
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  12. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Why would I expect that? Why would he regress? That does not make any sense.
     
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  13. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    Alright serious question...maybe I misunderstood the quoted part of the article.

    How can you say from 1990-2009 (19/20 years). Then say in those years 677 receivers have been drafted. Then you say of those 677, 32% have made it five years.

    If those 677 truely occured over 20 years, no-one drafted after 2004 COULD have played 5 years. Doesn't that skew the %?
     
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  14. Anonymous

    Anonymous Well-Known Member

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    Ok not regress, but don't expect him to take the next step.
     
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  15. 2k5

    2k5 I miss Ted Ginn Jr.

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    That's the best part :wink2:
     
  16. cobrajet

    cobrajet Mr. Ross - sell the team!

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    Good catch. That very thing is covered in the article a little farther along in the same paragraph.
     
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  17. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    I'll admit I only read the posted blurb. I'll have to read it all now :lol:
     
  18. cobrajet

    cobrajet Mr. Ross - sell the team!

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    It's OK. You raise a very good point even though it is covered in the article a little further down. I agree with the post and the stats however. Look at Bess, one of our best receivers and he went undrafted - then look at Ginn a number one pick - that fizzled. I can see how the numbers make sense.
     
  19. jetssuck

    jetssuck I hear Mandich's voice...

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    Exactly, it's down right foolish to invest in a WR....

    Just ask the Steelers......who in 2006 gave up a 3rd and a 4th to move up 6 spots to take Santonio Holmes at #25.

    I mean, what were they trying to do, win a Super Bowl or something?
     
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  20. cobrajet

    cobrajet Mr. Ross - sell the team!

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    I really don't think there is anything wrong with investing in a WR if your team is ready for one. With our DB collapse last year down the stretch I wouldn't make it a priority. This team has too many other glaring issues in this draft.
     
  21. jetssuck

    jetssuck I hear Mandich's voice...

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    We have a very good O line, a dynamic, well respected running game and a young gunslinger QB..... we're as ready for one as a team could get.

    Don't mistake a failed experiment with using two SS's in the backfield as needing to over haul the whole unit.
     
  22. bbqpitlover

    bbqpitlover Well-Known Member

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    And the definition of insanity is ????????????
     
  23. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    Don't forget about the linebacking corps. Beside Dansby we have nothing except Wake who is still a project.
    That part of the defense deserves some heavy attention
     
  24. jetssuck

    jetssuck I hear Mandich's voice...

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    Crowder will be an upgrade over Adoyele...one problem solved

    JT will be re-signed to at least add depth as a pass rush specialist....two problems down

    The we can take an OLB somewhere in rounds 2-4......and add one or two more next year

    See how easy that was?
     
  25. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    that doesn't solve anything
    Crowder is what he is... average
    jt no longer is a difference maker
    you will see the FO address LB whether you like it or not
    if only it were that easy we would all be happy
    in reality what you penciled in looks pretty weak really
     
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  26. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    so if we dont take dez chad henne won't continue to develop as an nfl qb?
    That is pure speculation
    comical
    dont invent scare tactics to try and prove your point on bryant
     
  27. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    You dont need two absolute star ILB to play the 3-4 defense. Crowder had a really bad season, but if he plays like the year before I'd say he's slightly above average. Not great...but IMO he's a very very good #2 ILB.
     
  28. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    any faith i might have ever had in channing is gone
    all i hear is he is young he will get better. he can do this and that
    i dont see it with crowder. he has on structure, awareness or discipline.
    the guy just blindly runs around out there
    the D will be much better when we get a solid replacement for him
     
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  29. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Taking chances on a guy with speed that lacks anything else is what has been killing teams - not WR as a whole. Look at the busts recently. Troy Williamson, Matt Jones, Ted Ginn, possibly DHB. These are the kinds of receivers that bust out more often than not.

    But take a look at some who didnt. Roddy White, Santonio Holmes, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachum, Anthony Gonzales, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt. Any one of these guys would likely be starting for us right now.

    Look at the top wideouts in the league and most were first rounders. Fitzgerald, both Andre and Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne.

    People overblow this whole X position is the bust position way to much. Do you have flameouts? Yes, of course you do. At every position. The player is the one that matters.
     
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  30. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    I think the ReceivingCorp is much stronger
    potentially this year than last
    also think Brian Hartline will step up
    to be our home-grown PlayMaker & #1Wr
    personally, I think we are looking for a TE
    & a FreeSafety in this years draft
    then a NT & more beef @ DE & SLB
     
  31. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    Oh, I guarantee you that if Miami drafts Dez Bryant, their starting linebackers will be Wake and Moses. That sounds great, doesn't it!! There aren't any other OLBs that can come in and start as rookies once you get passed the ones we could draft in the first round.

    With Channing Crowder still starting, we don't improve our consistency in defending the run.

    Let's not forget about the major drop off in run defense we had when Soliai stepped in for Jason Ferguson. You guessed it. If Miami drafts Dez Bryant, Paul Soliai is starting at nose tackle for Miami.

    I wonder what people are going to say if Miami drafts Dez Bryant and they miss the playoffs next year because their defense is so horrible? Not only that, but you have possibly 3 ELITE WR prospects who are all much better prospects than Dez Bryant that will likely be in the 2011 draft in Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Jonathan Baldwin. But let's waste a pick this year on Dez Bryant.
     
  32. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    In all seriousness.

    Who DO you like in this draft that will be there at #12
     
  33. Anonymous

    Anonymous Well-Known Member

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    Ok, let me break it down.

    Last season, Henne had a bad WR corps. His numbers were pretty average. 12 Tds to 14 picks with a 75.2 QB rating. Now, if you don't upgrade the receivers we have, he won't get much better. Because our WR unit isn't very good.

    Understand?
     
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  34. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    1. Rolando McClain
    2. Derrick Morgan
    3. Jerry Hughes
    4. Brandon Graham
    5. Jared Odrick
     
  35. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    So you're of the opinion that it's very important to have two star ILB in the 3-4?
     
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  36. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    Actually, let me break it down for you.

    Last year, Chad Henne was in his first season as a starter after Chad Pennington went down. He made rookie mistakes and didn't throw the ball very well down the field despite his arm strength.

    Brian Hartline was a rookie wide receiver who was among the top 5 rookies at the position in yards per reception.

    Davone Bess is a second year wide receiver who is better at this point than every wide receiver was was drafted in 2008.

    There is no reason why those two guys cannot get better as Henne continues to grow as a quarterback.
     
  37. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    I'm of the opinion that when you are as bad as Miami is defensively, you take the best defender that is available to you.

    So, no. I have no problem with Miami having the best ILB duo in the NFL.
     
    Fin D likes this.
  38. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    so it will be impossible for henne to improve from what was basically a rookie outing if he doesnt get dez bryant?
    that is ludicrous
     
  39. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    Fair enough. However I don't think having the best ILB duo in the league is as big of an advantage as you do. It's a limited impact position IMO.
     
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  40. NJFINSFAN1

    NJFINSFAN1 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I'm not a guru or watch game tapes of college kids like most do, but I do know we need these before WR

    1. OLB
    2. Safety
    3. ILB

    Heck I might even put nickleback in before WR

    Do I think we could us a true #1? Yes, but not before we fix our defense. Our offense scored enough to win games, the defense just didn't hold up its end.
     

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