My intention with this thread is not only to isolate some talk about West Virginia WR Stedman Bailey, whom I view to be extremely underrated, but also to provide another catalogue of time stamps on various videos that really show Stedman beating NFL caliber players for big plays and touchdowns. First I will just link some of the classic compendium type YouTube videos that you'll see out there. They're pretty good. But obviously the thing about those videos is you'll see him all over the place beating the likes of Keith Baxter (Marshall), Dexter McDougle (Maryland), Joe Williams (Baylor), K.J. Morton (Baylor), Gage Shaeffer (Iowa State), Devon McKoy (Bowling Green) and Brandon Jones (Rutgers)...and all of these plays look great, but I'm not sure I consider them to be plays made on guys that are really NFL caliber or even close to it. Marshall, Maryland & Texas games 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ci2K1xx6bmQ Maryland, LSU & Clemson games 2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJFx52Bccfg Highlights from 2010 & 2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnISzeG2Ao Highlights from 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9i0ZNwUURQ You can watch all those and you'll get an idea what kind of player Stedman Bailey is but I think as I said the problem is you would like to see how he does against GOOD players, guys that either are NFL caliber or are at least close to NFL caliber. Below you will find a collection of individual plays, or groups of successive plays, that I consider to be a little more important in the evaluation. He beat NC State CB David Amerson for a long TD back in 2010. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnISzeG2Ao&feature=player_detailpage#t=109s He beat LSU CB Tyrann Mathieu for a short TD in 2010 so bad, he made Mathieu fall on his butt. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnISzeG2Ao&feature=player_detailpage#t=91s CB Kevyn Scott of Syracuse graced the Dolphins' roster for a bit this year as a UDFA. Stedman had a nice catch on him in 2011. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnISzeG2Ao&feature=player_detailpage#t=285s As for blocking, check out the attitude on this kid going up against LSU's future top 10 pick CB Mo Claiborne back in 2011. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnISzeG2Ao&feature=player_detailpage#t=194s He also did this to CB Adrian Bushell of Louisville back in 2011. Bushell is going to be a draft pick this year. Admittedly, Bushell had great coverage, but look at the concentration it took to haul in this ball after it escapes Bushell's grasp. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnISzeG2Ao&feature=player_detailpage#t=346s CB Camerron Cheatham of Cincinnati may not be rated highly but he's a very fast CB I wouldn't be surprised to see get a shot in the NFL. Again this is 2011. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnISzeG2Ao&feature=player_detailpage#t=354s CB Antwuan Reed of Pitt got a look from Tom Heckert Jr and the Cleveland Browns this year as a UDFA. Bailey beat him pretty bad in 2011. What's great about this play is how Bailey tosses in a nice "**** you" stiff-arm to FS Jarred Holley, who will likely be drafted this year, en route to the touchdown. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnISzeG2Ao&feature=player_detailpage#t=371s I unfortunately bore witness live in-stadium to what Bailey did to CB Quenton Washington of South Florida in 2011, who got a look by the Buccaneers this year as a UDFA. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnISzeG2Ao&feature=player_detailpage#t=387s You have to appreciate what he did to Clemson FS Rashard Hall over the middle when the two teams met and WVU blew Clemson out in 2011. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnISzeG2Ao&feature=player_detailpage#t=404s And really the best from 2011 came as I said when he faced off with Mo Claiborne (x8) and Tharold Simon (x2). Here are those plays. I'd isolate individual plays, but the whole stretch against LSU is worth watching. For reference, Mo Claiborne is #17 and there are 8 times Stedman goes up against his direct coverage with 5 catches including a TD. On only 1 of those 8 times do I feel Mo Claiborne actually won and broke up the pass. The other plays weren't completed for other reasons, either ball not quite being on target or Stedman not quite being able to get there. The other guy he goes up against twice (one catch) #24 is Tharold Simon, also an NFL prospect. One is a good catch and the other I think Simon had good coverage. There's one play in there where on a very late throw FS Brandon Taylor (3rd Round) broke up a pass intended for Stedman, and there's also a catch Stedman had where Mo Claiborne buzzed the flat and Stedman found the space between zones, and I don't really consider that to be on Mo Claiborne. There's also a screen catch in there. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJFx52Bccfg&feature=player_detailpage#t=157s Similarly, I think the entire body of work against Texas in 2012 is worth watching and so instead of linking individual plays, I will link the Texas section of a video that spans Bailey's work against Marshall, Baylor and Texas. Obviously when going up against the DBs of Marshall and Baylor, there's a mismatch and those guys aren't really necessarily even close to being NFL players. But against Texas he goes up on Carrington Byndom 4 times. He beats him all 4 times, 2 times for touchdowns, and 1 time the ref initially didn't call it a catch even though I thought replay showed that it was a catch. I'm not sure if that was reviewed and overturned or what but it doesn't matter to me, because you look at the replay and it's a catch. He secures the football while his trail foot is still touching. There's another play I'm not sure I want to say Stedman really beat Byndom because there was so much cushion it was really unfair to Carrington and it was just taking candy from a baby underneath on 1st & 10. I don't know whether it's up to Byndom to prevent that catch or not. And finally there was another play that similarly, I don't call it "beating" Byndom per se because it's a WR screen with Byndom playing off so the ball was going to be complete regardless. What happens AFTER that though, was indeed Stedman Bailey beating Carrington Byndom by making him miss his tackle and running for yards after the catch. There was another screen catch in there which again I don't put on Byndom and actually this time he tackled Stedman well. Technically if this were PFF style grading I think you could say Stedman beat Byndom for the catch 7 out of 7 times, but I'm not interested in technicalities. Finally, there's a 3rd touchdown which looked like someone could try and put it on Byndom but he was trying to pass Stedman off to another zone defender (Adrian Phillips) who took the wrong angle. There's one more play in there where Stedman beats CB Quandre Diggs for a catch as well. Quandre is Dane Brugler of NFL Draft Scout's #4 ranked CB in the 2015 Draft. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ci2K1xx6bmQ&feature=player_detailpage#t=344s Also in 2012, here is a nice one-off of Stedman Bailey catching a deep touchdown against TCU CB Jason Verrett, himself being a good CB prospect for the 2014 Draft (Dane Brugler w/ NFL Draft Scout has him #7 behind Milliner, Rhodes, Robey, Logan Ryan, Amerson and Bennett Jackson). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9xwFoDeK1Q&feature=player_detailpage#t=179s Here are FOUR big plays, three of them touchdowns, Stedman Bailey scored against Oklahoma CB Aaron Colvin, 1st team All Big 12 this year and himself a good prospect for the 2014 Draft (again Brugler has him #9 in that class). One one of the touchdowns, he also outrun the deep safety help of Brugler's #2 FS prospect in the 2014 Draft, Tony Jefferson. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9i0ZNwUURQ&feature=player_detailpage#t=145s http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9i0ZNwUURQ&feature=player_detailpage#t=152s http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9i0ZNwUURQ&feature=player_detailpage#t=161s http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9i0ZNwUURQ&feature=player_detailpage#t=172s Here's a nice deep touchdown on Oklahoma State CB Brodrick Brown, who is looking at potentially being drafted this year. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9i0ZNwUURQ&feature=player_detailpage#t=90s Now, that said...I'm not just trying to isolate plays where he looked good. The nature of highlight reels being what they are, obviously most of these plays are going to be successful. The sheer volume of successful plays against this caliber of players is itself impressive, but it's not like nobody has ever covered him. Below on two plays you'll see Coty Sensabaugh (has started 2 games for the Tennessee Titans this year) covering Stedman Bailey ideally. Considering there are two compendium videos showing a total of 6 games from 2011 & 2012, and those videos intentionally showed all plays that went Stedman's way (not just the good plays), I do find it telling that in those 6 games the only player that covered him well on multiple plays was Sensabaugh. But here they are: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJFx52Bccfg&feature=player_detailpage#t=307s http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJFx52Bccfg&feature=player_detailpage#t=404s I like Stedman Bailey a lot and I have since right after the 2012 Draft when I started reviewing prospects for 2013. I think he's got near-complete game. He's extremely aggressive with the football and aggressive with contact. He will stiff-arm guys into the turf, hit them, be brutal with them in blocking, and get all kinds of yards after contact. When you combine that with his super quick feet and ability to adjust on footballs in the air as well as to adjust his route on the move reacting to defensive back leverage, you have a really good player. There have been times that I have been frustrated how much Tavon Austin gets talked about whereas Stedman Bailey would fly under the radar. I appreciate Tavon Austin's game and he's one of my favorite potential prospects, however I have considered and still consider Stedman Bailey to be a superior NFL prospect for the Draft because I know exactly how Stedman is going to make an impact on my team whereas the beginning of Tavon Austin's career will be sort of experimental. Stedman Bailey's touchdown making is one of the more impressive aspects of his game because he does it with so much variety. He has 23 touchdowns in 2012 alone, and 12 of them came at 9 yards or less which is very Marvin Harrison-like. Then again, 8 of them came at 30 yards or more which is very DeSean Jackson-like. Stedman Bailey may only be 5'10" and 195 bs but he has the wing span of a guy that is 6'2" or 6'3". One thing you have to appreciate about him is that unlike Tavon Austin who either will be a slot man or end up nothing at all, you can put Stedman Bailey on the outside and if it's not working there THEN you can move him into the slot. You have a backup plan. With Austin if things aren't working from the slot then I doubt you're going to try him on the outside or give him a true run at a tailback position. On the bright side, things probably ARE going to work out for a Tavon Austin from the slot. But I also think Stedman Bailey will work out just fine on the perimeter as well as the slot. The dimensions are the thing that knocks Stedman Bailey down but Ryan Broyles was literally the same size a year ago and he went #54 overall with a fresh November ACL tear he still had to recover from. This is why I don't get that Bailey is considered a 3rd round prospect. A completely healthy Ryan Broyles is a damn fine player. But a completely healthy Stedman Bailey is also a damn fine player and at worst you'd call that comparison a toss-up in my opinion. I would lean toward Stedman, and I was as big a fan of Broyles as you'd find. Fact of the matter is though, Stedman is healthy and Broyles was not. Broyles still went bottom of the 2nd round whereas Stedman Bailey is commonly placed in the 3rd round. It doesn't make sense to me. DeSean Jackson is smaller than Stedman Bailey. Santonio Holmes is maybe a hair taller but not built any bigger and the height advantage is marginal at best. Greg Jennings is a hair taller and a little bit more muscled but still was only 5'11" and 197 lbs versus Stedman's 5'10" and 195 lbs. Percy Harvin was 5'11" and 192 lbs. Golden Tate was 5'10" and 199 lbs. Randall Cobb was 5'10" and 191 lbs. Lee Evans was only 5'11" and 197 lbs. Santana Moss was only 5'10" and 181 lbs. Steve Smith of Carolina was only 5'9" and 184 lbs and that's the guy whose game I think compares the best to Stedman's. Let's say he isn't that caliber of player, there are still other contributors that are the same size or smaller. Donnie Avery is a hair taller if at all. Eddie Royal is the same size. Lavelle Hawkins is the same size. Harry Douglass is maybe a hair taller but skinnier. Deion Branch was smaller coming out. Antwaan Randle El was the same size. Would I draft this guy in the top 15 of the NFL Draft? I'm not positive enough that he's the next Steve Smith that I would do that. However, this is one of those prospects that down the road I know I'm going to regret being positive on, but not quite positive ENOUGH on. Much like Russell Wilson honestly. I was in a very slim minority of those that would've taken Russell Wilson in the high 2nd round. But the bottom line is I should've been willing to take him #8 overall. I would look at a Stedman Bailey in the bottom of the 1st round or top of the 2nd round.
Great post. Yeah, ideally you'd like a bigger WR, but that's far from the most important factor imo. One thing that stood out to me in these clips is, as they say, the size of the fight in the dog, as opposed to the proverbial size of the dog in the fight. Specifically here at 3:15 going up against Morris Claiborne: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnISzeG2Ao&feature=player_detailpage#t=194s We could use some of that determination and attitude, and for sure a receiver with his speed and quicks.
That guy is a little ferocious bulldog. His got unbelievable determination. He's also very talented at almost every aspect a WR needs, only knock being size, but he makes up for it by just being a baller. I'd take him in the 2nd too. However, i'd go for Terrance Williams as a first rounder before Bailey. It would be interesting if CK or Boomer made a list of WRs they would take in descending order of which they'd take first, and in which round they'd be ok in taking them. For guidance reasons.
The player would allow a dimension of our offense to come out of hibernation, catching passes at the Los, and behind it, the true quick pass game, not amazing how little we do that considering the skillsets we have currently, but if you wanna improve your Qb stats, this is a guy that's does it immediately with the feet, agility and hands, he's also got a lot more game then just that.. I have him a solid 2nd round prospect.. I was in that slim minority about Wilson, would of wanted him in the first if we had a strategy to trade down, would of been happy to have him at 8..special player.. If we're out of the range in getting a D'end with hi upside, I would be happy to go loco on offense..Tyler Eiffert and Bailey comin out of the gates sounds great to me.
One thing I have to try and be disciplined about is allowing my frustration with the perception of Stedman Bailey affect my evaluation of Tavon Austin. To qualify Austin as the sizzle and Stedman as the steak would probably be unfair to Austin. But the comparison of the players is too difficult to ignore in some ways. For instance, Stedman Bailey really suffers a little in my estimation from the fact that the Mountaineers have Tavon Austin on roster. What you don't see Stedman hardly ever doing is going into the slot and being a mismatch weapon there, being a chain mover type player that can be electric with the three-way go. You don't see him taking many carries. You don't see him on punt or kick returns. Yet, he could. This is a guy that has electric after catch skills with the ball in his hands. He's ferocious, he can stiff-arm people, he's got great feet. Just watch that play against LSU where he came all the way back for the ball with Morris Claiborne in coverage, he had to come so far back he lost the 1st down yardage, but turned around, made Claiborne miss, made two other LSU defenders missed, and got back to the 1st down marker. He's a really good player after the catch and there's no reason to think he wouldn't be making a huge impact from the inside. But Tavon Austin is there and Austin does that stuff just about as good as it can be done. The only way to work Stedman on the inside while not diminishing or displacing Austin would be in 4-WR personnel groupings you could stick Stedman on the inside. But when you do that (and they have actually done it some), who is threatening the outside? And why not just have Tavon Austin get the ball on the inside anyway? The interesting thing is the opposite cannot be said of Austin. Stedman Bailey does not prevent Tavon Austin being moved to the perimeter. There are hardly any plays where you couldn't have both on the perimeter if you wanted. If Tavon Austin were truly as compelling on the outside as the inside you could move him there any time and you wouldn't diminish or displace Stedman Bailey. In the end, Austin's being used in the role he's being used has a lot more to do in my opinion with physical limitations, whereas Bailey's being used the way he's used has more to do with circumstances.
As superficial as it sounds, if the measuring tape doesn't stretch beyond 5'9 1/2, I think the finicky NFL passes on him until round 3, which would be fine by me b/c it'd be good for us.
Not necessarily good for us. Not unless Ireland turns in his membership card to the finicky NFL, he is a high ranking member of the board.
Nice post. Exactly. He could be quite a diverse player without Austin in that offense. It's crazy the draft's top 2 NFL slot receives, in my eyes, play in the same offense. He's a perfect fit here IMO. He can beat defenses at all 3 levels, has the natural ability needed to run sharp routes, gain quick separation, make plays with the ball in his hands, and be a bad ball receiver..... and if he has the smarts like Broyles to understand coverage and recognize his reads he could be a quality player IMO. I would still play him in the slot the majority of the time b/c I feel that's the position he offers the most upside at, but we can still move him around to create mismatches.
Maybe. Tavon Austin is actually 5083 according to Brugler so if Bailey is more like 5095 I wouldn't be surprised. Nor would I care.
No he's not. He was the first GM to draft Clyde Gates, and the first to draft the undersized, converted full back/TE, Charles Clay. Etc
I agree. His mold would not draft Tavon Austin or Steadman Bailey, i don't think. Not in the top 3 rounds at least.
??? Gates fits the mold of drafting potential playmakers, guys with actual talent to work with, rather than sticking to a set size mold and only going after possession type players with high floors but lower ceilings.
That makes no sense whatsoever WADR. Of Ireland's lone 2 drafts, 53% of his picks went to offensive skill players. He obviously prioritizes talent and isn't scared to trade up for a guy he covets (Miller 4th round, Clay 6th, Thomas 2nd), nor is he scared to draft a player with upside despite needing some polishing (Gates, Egnew, Clay, Matthews, Kaddu, Wilson). If he can go after all those guys while making a push for Jeremy Maclin, signing the explosive Reggie Bush, signing a more explosive return man (Thigpen), signing the speedy Anthony Armstrong, and bringing in rookie free agents like the explosive running back Nic Grigsby (5'11 199, 4.38) and the explosive receiver Phillip Livas (5'7 179, 4.4 forty, blistering 1.46 ten yard time) then there's NOTHING to say he wouldn't draft Austin or Bailey. There's more support to say he actually WOULD draft them than not.
Watching those highlights got me pumped. I see some Steve Smith to his game ... runs his routes and with the ball with a bunch of attitude. I like how he looks like a running back after the catch also
I'm not saying he wouldn't draft them, i'm saying that he would place less value on them because they don't fit the mold he has about players. Ireland likes a certain mold of players that would afford him a lower chance of bust. Austin and Bailey are high risk, high reward players simply because they are unconventional type players. Notice that even the players you mentioned, some who actually fit his mold, are in fact lower round picks, where the risk is less. He would take a shot at Bailey or Austin, but it will be later in the draft, where the risk is much less. Problem is, they will be gone then. Other teams are willing to take the risk of a high pick, for the chance of a high reward.
I'm curious as to what exactly Jeff's supposed mold for wide receivers is. In Dallas, he was part of a scouting staff that apparently had a mid round grade on Skyler Green and Isaiah Stanback. Skyler Green was a 5'9", 185 lbs receiver that was more of a return man than a receiver at LSU. Isaiah Stanback was a quarterback convert to the WR position. In Miami, Patrick Turner probably fits the mold you are talking about here moreso than either Brian Hartline or Clyde Gates. I'm really not sure what Jeff looks for in a wide receiver. My hope is that he gets a lot of input from Joe Philbin on what Joe looks for in a wide receiver, because Green Bay has done a much better job over the past 6 years or so in the draft at selecting playmakers on the perimeter than Jeff Ireland has.
No i don't mean he looks for a certain type per se. What I mean is he would't place that high a value on WRs like Austin or Bailey, because they represent high risks more unconventional players. So he would look to take those later to minimize the risks. For higher picks he would look for what he sees as more conventional safer players. This is just a perception i have from the drafts and how he chooses players. Doesn't mean i'm right. In fact i hope I'm not, or that Philbin has an influence on him in case i am right.
Judging from the past I think Jeff Ireland likes triangle numbers. He likes physical impressiveness. If its a big guy, be really strong while being built unusually, and/or be unusually quick for a big guy. If its a small guy, be lightning in a bottle from a speed standpoint. If you go back most of his guys fit those molds one way or another. Most of them have some test results that you can look at singly or as a whole and say wow that's impressive.
agree very much. TBH, the least of my worries is about Ireland not going after talented players or not prioritizing them in the draft. IMO he has a major itch for some playmaker additions for his prized QB. My only concern is that he goes after the right players, but it's more of an optimistic concern, especially if coach Philbin is in his ear providing input, which he most certainly is. We have 2 TAMU receivers on the PS squad, so there's always a chance we bypass Bailey in lieu of Swope. I wouldn't be upset with Swope, but preferably not at the expense of Bailey. I'll be shocked to not see Jennings & Finley in Miami to kick things off.
Great write up!! I felt the same way about Tavon getting too much attention in comparison to Bailey. There is a lot I like about Bailey's game including his ability to go up and attack the ball (when the ball is in there air he has the mentality that it is his no matter what), he runs good routes and always finds a way to get open (uncanny ability to find the soft spots), etc. etc. He is truly a special talent. That being said, I have two questions with him. 1.) Is he actually 5'10? I have a feeling he is going to measure in a little under that maybe 5'9 6/8th he just doesn't look 5'10 to me. I am not concerned about his weight to height, but when you have a WR below 5'10 that really starts to hurt their stock in my opinion. 2.) How fast is he? Steve Smith ran a 4.39 40-yard dash. I don't think Bailey gets close to that. I see him around a 4.50-4.55, as much as I love him and want to see him outrun everyone you don't see it on film. Is he fast enough? Yes, but I don't think his numbers will be that impressive come combine time. I think Bailey is quick and shifty and can accelerate pretty quickly, but he is no Percy Harvin or DeSean Jackson in my eyes. ---A neat side note on his speed is he has that extra gear when the ball is in the air. I love watching Bailey because his CB can be right on him and then once the ball is in the air Bailey somehow has separated himself from the defender by 2 yards or so. Its a thing of beauty to watch. The play that makes me cringe watching Bailey is the one at 4:13 in this video. He catches the ball, makes one defender miss and you see the LB Yawin Smallwood (who is a decent LB prospect in his own right) turn and run with Bailey and almost freaking catch him before Bailey can get away; looks like he accelerated very slowly in my opinion. I don't think Bailey got that far away either because it looks as if the camera changed its angle to make it seem like Smallwood was very far behind him. [video=youtube;aOnISzeG2Ao]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnISzeG2Ao&feature=player_detailpage#t=109s[/video] All in all, I am a big fan of Bailey and think he will be a big contributor to an NFL team. He is crafty, good route runner, tough in all phases of the game, excellent feel for the game, and great hands. I just don't see a burner or someone that will take over games in the NFL. I think he will be more of a slot WR based on what I envision his timed speed and measured height being. He is going to be a rich-man's Bess. I love Bailey, but if we don't get Jennings, Wallace, or draft another WR before him I wouldn't be happy. Bailey wouldn't solve our WR problems, but if you get him in addition to 1 or 2 other WRs you greatly improve our team as a whole. I'd like to see a spread with him and Bess on the field together.
Without spending first round talent...maybe Green Bay get their guys in the 2 nd because that's where you find your perfect balance of talent and ego.
GREAT POST, Chris. Thanks for the whole write up and clips. I've watched games of about 12 of the top WR prospects now and NONE of them got me as thoroughly and unabatedly excited as Stedman for the main reason you mentioned, he is the most well-rounded of them all and a touchdown machine. Here are the notes I took while watching cut ups of his plays (not just highlights, but all targets, and some plays where he blocks etc) Stedman Bailey WR - good hands - quick feet and hips - tracks ball very well in the air - catches ball with CB draped all over him - YAC guy - great spin move - made for a WCO - GREAT at deep over the top throws being caught.. catches rainbows - good speed, but not world class - SO ****ING SMART! On ball thrown too late w too much hang time he TRICKS two trail defenders into stopping so he doesn't lose separation by the time the ball arrives!!! Do you know how much CONFIDENCE you have to have in your judgement of the ball in the air, and timing of when it will arrive to do that - BEST tracking ball in the air of any WR I've seen in this draft - GREAT IN THE ENDZONE!!! SO impressed on good route, PLUS knew to step IN FRONT of safety who was squeezing the route... stedman saw it and jockeyed for better position to ensure the tD catch! LOVE IT. - knows his throwing angles and WILL NOT ALLOW A DB to GET IN BETWEEN. Doesn't allow easy INTS of his QB. Fights for angle and position on throws that a DB could jump for an INT. GREAT at LEVERAGE with DBs. I mean, I want this guy so bad I can taste it. Totally agree that he'll go higher than his 'grade'. I was going to say we should nab him with the 2nd we got from the Colts, but the more I realize he is the one WR I really believe in, I think it has to be our higher 2nd round pick. Which is a shame, in a way, as I think that's where a good TE or Safety could have been had. Like you, I do not want to be the team that passed on Bailey and regrets it later. He is the real deal, imo.
After reading through this thread, I'm sold on him. Watch some tape on him and it's clear that he won't continue the trend of dolphins receivers falling after catching a long pass from THill; great ability with the ball in his hands. Not a burner, but definitely gets the job done and finds the end zone. And although this really doesn't matter, it's kind of cool seeing local kids get drafted by the Phins. He played high school football at Miramar. Last 2 local kids we drafted (L. Miller and Vernon) have showed some promise, why not continue the trend?
I remember back in the 2009 draft that Jeff was a big, big fan of Percy Harvin. I wasn't convinced at that time that Parcells was on board with Harvin, and while I don't know for sure, I believe that had Percy been available to Miami, Jeff would have lobbied hard to draft him. Percy is a unique player. He's legitimately a wide receiver/running back hybrid player. There were some questions about his ability to play receiver in the NFL. When he's been on the field, I think he has answered those questions. His problem has been staying on the field. He's a dynamic play maker though. This brings up an interesting question. How much is Tavon Austin like Percy Harvin? I've seen this comparison a lot, and honestly, I don't think Tavon has the power that Percy had. I haven't watched a lot of film on him yet though. I've been focusing more on Stedman Bailey. Will Jeff Ireland look at Tavon and see a lot of Percy in him? Will that convince him to move him up his board some? This brings me to another question. This has been addressed some in this thread, but is it a stretch to project Stedman Bailey to be a similar player to Percy Harvin? What we haven't seen Stedman Bailey is be a running threat in the way that Percy and Tavon has been used. As has been stated in this thread, Tavon's presence on the team is likely what kept them from using Bailey in this fashion. Do you think Jeff will evaluate Stedman Bailey, see the way he runs in the open field and in space, and be able to project that he may indeed be similar to Percy Harvin?
Percy and Bailey do have downhill strait line styles, Bailey doesn't waste lateral motion, neither does Percy..
Tavon has more fuel in his jets than Stedman. Stedman has that Jerry Rice thing though, where if he catche s aball and no one is in front of him, NO ONE on earth is catching him from behind... even a guy who runs faster than him. lol. Weird, but some guys have that. THe one, and only, question mark I have about Stedman that concerns me is... I don't feel like I have seen him against enough high-caliber press coverage. Strong, talented NFL-type corners jamming him. With his size, I want to make sure he can still be effective if they get in his face. I suspect he can, since he is not shy about getting physically agressive. Still, it's the one thing I see is lackking in my notes: 'beats press'. I'll have another look at some games.
Great post! I would be very pleased if we draft Bailey this year. The Dolphins have enough ammunition where I believe they can trade into the early 2nd round if needed.
Stedman reminds me of our own Mark Clayton. It's in the way he runs, jumps and battles for the ball. I think my dream draft right now (assuming we pick 15th or so) might be something like: 1. Pressure player like Jordan or Margus Hunt 2a. Matt Elam S 2b. Stedman Bailey WR
There's no one better with the ball in the air. Can you tell me what you like about Elam? Everyone seems high on him but me.
I've watched every Florida game this year. Elam plays the ball well and is a big hitter. Also plays the run well. He could be a poor man's Polamalu. There's really nothing not to like about his game IMO. I'd be ecstatic if the Dolphins drafted him. An Elam/Jones safety tandem would be ****.
He reminds me a bit of Jones actually. I'm not sure his measureables will be as good, but his knack for play making is better than Jones. Like Jones, he's a bit of an all-around S in that he can play close to the line as a run enforcer or back in coverage. I think he's better in coverage than Jones and I think he has better ball skills. IMO that type of S would fit well with our left/right S system (vs. a SS/FS defense).
Good article by Eric Stoner over at rotoworld on Stedman. http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/42202/321/WR-Complement,-Stedman-Bailey
Okay, I'm convinced I haven't watched enough games. I saw him consistently play well coming forward to make the tackle, but taking bad angles to WRs while the ball was in the air if it was deeper than him. I also found he consistently got to the WR/ball intersection a couple beats late every time. I kept looking for him to time it, read it, get there to break it up occasionally, and I wasn;t seeing it. Late. Late. Late. I'll go back and watch more. I must have gotten his worst games? Also, is another Rashad jones the right complement to Rashad Jones?
Great article that furthers my conviction that Bailey is the steal of the draft. If we don't take him with our higest second round pick, someone smart will. Heck, he may not make it past the top of the 2nd round. By the way, I watched four of Aaron Dobson's games and came away underwhelmed, but glad I got to check him out. He certainly has spectacular flashes. My notes: Aaron Dobson, Marshall WR (Games Watched: WVU, Purdue, West Carolina, 2011 Louisville) - lazy away from the ball - Dobson overthrown deep - nice hands - misses blocks in space, but at least he does so very consistently (cut your starting RB's long runs in half) - Team is down by 40 points and his QB is not looking for him, what does that say? - Runs a decent slant. - Decent YAC, but I don't see him targeted often enough to make that excite me. - Makes the occasional ***incredible*** one-handed catch. Fine, but you can't run an offense based on that happening though. - Managed to watch two games so far and not see a touchdown. Looks like more of what we've already got. - notice he is being sat down in second halfs. I see he did hurt his knee late Oct/early Nov so maybe he was nursing that and the coaching staff was pulling him out of blowouts... or he wasn't doing enough out there? - I get the feeling here's a guy who plays well when Marshall is leading or tied, but gives less than 100% once they are down a couple scores. - Yup, so I watch the West Carolina game, the one game I saw where they were winning handily, and #3 begins showing up all over the place. So why does he disappear against tough opponents when Marshall is down? Attitude, or is he easy to eliminate when he faces a good corner? - Coach sits him too much in the second half of blouwouts (leading or trailing), hardly saw him in second half of any of the first three games I've watched... will watch a 2011 game now. - Hm. He's okay, but not getting me jump up and down excited. When the best two things I can say is 'he runs a nice slant' and 'occasionally he'll make a circus one handed catch' it's not enough to offset lack of TDs, lack of effort off the ball (pet peeve of mine) and inability to block anyone ever, and wondering why he isn't getting the ball MORE when his team is down and falling behind? Doesn't add up to a guy who impacts winning enough, imo. - Dunno what you saw in him KB, but I'm not high on him. Sorry. Too hit-or-miss. Flashes some amazing catch skills, but you're rolling the dice. Thanks for mentioning him, though. Fun watching cut ups. I'd love to know what you like about him that I missed.
Back to Stedman Bailey, the thing about the versatility angle is that it isn't just downside protection. It's also upside. If things aren't working out for Stedman on the perimeter, you know he'd make a valuable slot player. That's downside protection. However, there's a flip side to that coin. What if he IS a good player on the perimeter? Defenses can take away a perimeter receiver, unless his name is Calvin Johnson. Not necessarily straight doubles at the line like that infamous picture of Calvin Johnson (which was repeated this weekend by the Arizona Cardinals on Brandon Marshall, don't know if anyone noticed that)...but defenses can have a safety over top eyeballing the player and play some aggressive coverage underneath and if your QB is not the chancy type and doesn't just throw to a player out of trust, suddenly your top receiver isn't part of the offense anymore. Stedman Bailey's versatility means that you can overcome that (if that's what you want to do) by moving him around, especially to the slot. Honestly I like Keenan Allen, I like Cordarrelle Patterson, I'm not (yet) comfortable with either player as Miami's #12 overall pick (I believe we're currently #15 but should be #12 when/if we lose to NE this weekend). So that means both players are in the same boat for me as Stedman and if that's the case I have to go with my gut on which guy I want with me when the bullets are firing and for that I say Stedman Bailey.
