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Win correlation numbers for 2009

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by rafael, Mar 31, 2010.

  1. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I cut and pasted to avoid the "posting the whole article" thing.

    Offense
    Points scored .88
    Team passer rating .81
    Total yards gained per play .81
    Yards gained per pass play .80
    Total yards gained .77
    1st downs .70
    Turnover ratio .69
    Pass yards gained .68
    3rd down conversion % .64
    QB hits allowed (.53)
    Sacks allowed (.53)
    Time of possession .46
    4th down conversion % .25*
    Pass attempts .14*
    Run attempts .12*
    Yards gained per rush play .09*
    Offensive penalty yards .04*
    Run yards gained .04*
    Pass/run ratio .02*

    Defense
    Points allowed (.68)
    Run yards allowed (.58)
    Passing yards allowed per pass play (.57)
    Total yards allowed (.56)
    Total yards allowed per play (.54)
    Opponent's passer rating (.47)
    1st downs allowed (.45)
    Sacks made .41
    Run yards allowed per play (.33)
    4th down conversions allowed (.30)
    Passing yards allowed (.24)
    3rd down conversion % allowed (.23)*
    Defensive penalty yards .14*

    Special Teams
    Average kickoff (kicking team) .32
    Average net punt yards (kicking team) .27*
    Average kickoff return yards allowed .15*
    Total penalty yards committed .11*
    Average kickoff return yards gained .05*
    Field goal % .03*

    * not statistically significant at 90% confidence

    Points scored is the best predictor of a team's win-loss record. That's hardly surprising, since it's almost like saying a team's number of wins is the best indication of its success. But when considered along with other statistics, it does indicate how good offense (and passing, specifically) has come to supercede in importance good defense in posting a winning record.

    Most teams win with their passing games. Of the top ten rushing teams, only four are in the playoffs. And the two odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl, San Diego and Indianapolis, are #31 and #32, respectively. In contrast, eight of the top ten offenses in terms of total passing yards made the post-season, and only one playoff team, the improbable Jets, can't move the ball through the air.

    Although special teams are often accorded one-third of a team's total equation by media figures and putative insiders, the layman's tendency to deemphasize them in favor of offense and defense looks pretty reasonable. It is nearly impossible to predict a team's level of success by looking only at its special teams statistics.

    Turnovers are huge. Penalties are not. Fourth down attempts are too infrequent to be of great consequence in aggregate, but the ability to convert on third down is important.


    http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2010/0...and-stats.html
    __________________

    I posted this b/c people have different ideas about what actually wins in this league. Most of these numbers have been consistent for several years now although I believe the correlation for the passing stats has moved up a bit over the last 5 years (from high 70s to the low 80s).
     
    Rhody Phins Fan and MonstBlitz like this.
  2. miamiron

    miamiron There's always next year

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    The only stats that matter are points scored/points allowed

    we scored 22.5 points per game average...15th in the NFL
    we allowed 24.4 points per game average..25th in the NFL

    THE 390 POINTS ALLOWED WAS THE THIRD WORST POINT TOTAL IN 40 YEARS FOR THE MIAMI DOLPHINS
     
  3. Rhody Phins Fan

    Rhody Phins Fan Well-Known Member

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    It's interesting how high the correlation for QB rating is and how low the correlation is for passing yards allowed.
     
  4. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's clearly inaccurate.
     
  5. Rhody Phins Fan

    Rhody Phins Fan Well-Known Member

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    I think the reason why the correlation for rushing yards allowed is so high is because when teams are losing they pass so a winning team would give up more passing yards than rushing yards.
     

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