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Will Our Next QB Be Better than Tannehill in 2019?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Jan 5, 2019.

Will our next QB play better or worse than RT did last year?

  1. Absolutely!

    16 vote(s)
    55.2%
  2. No Chance!

    13 vote(s)
    44.8%
  1. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    People have been making excuses for him for years. My problem is even when those things weren’t issues, I still saw a QB that threw untimely interceptions, took sacks that he should have never taken(that good QB’s don’t take) and when things do break down, as they inevitably do, he struggles overcoming or making defenses pay.

    I think once the emotions of him being our QB go away and people have the ability to view him through an objective lense, they’ll see what a lot of people have for awhile. He’s a talented guy, a good guy, can make some impressive plays but he isn’t nor will he ever be a top tier QB.
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2019
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  2. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    The thing is though, I have been objective. I’m one of the very few here who have been and understands that a football team has 2 sides to the ball.

    All I hear most complain about and beat their drum on is quarterback, quarterback, quarterback. I’m objective and point out all areas of deficiency but if that critique, regardless of the factuality doesn’t include a tomahawk cruise missile launched at Tannehill, I somehow don’t know what I’m talking about.

    I’m not defending Tannehill. I have been critical of him...as I have the entire team when warranted
     
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  3. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Ok, neat.

    :headwall:
     
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  4. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    95% of us agree he isn't top tier though.

    Our argument is simply if your plan is to throw darts and hope for better it's not likely to be a net gain.
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I think this is or should be obvious. The problem is that if you don't start throwing darts you're forced into trying to win the SB using one of the least likely to work strategies (build around a QB that is neither elite nor can be relied on to win crucial games). In other words, you're basically forced into trying to throw darts if you care about playing the odds.
     
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  6. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Just a Guy Staff Member Club Member

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    Without the rest of a good team, you aren't making it very far, and the team isn't going to be very consistent, even if they have one great year. I personally believe, extremely strongly, that we all need to accept that there are only so many top tier QBs to be had, and most teams aren't going to have one most of the time.

    So, you draft or otherwise acquire one that you think has potential, build up the team around him, and then give him time as the man. Give him a solid OL, a solid running game, and solid targets to throw to. Then after four or five years if it isn't working, you start over again.
     
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  7. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I'd take it one step further. You should EXPECT to fail in drafting a great QB and should therefore draft a QB high every 2-3 years while keeping the previous one you drafted on the roster to develop.. until you hit on that great franchise QB.

    Obviously you need an above average offense and defense to win, but at least on offense that's what I would do.
     
  8. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wins aren't QB stats.

    Try again, please.
     
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  9. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Just a Guy Staff Member Club Member

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    Different approaches. Not saying you're wrong, but I dislike that method. It clouds the waters, and automatically casts doubt into everyones eyes on the guy who was already there, and puts the idea into the coaches mind to give the other guy a shot if things are going perfectly. I would much rather see it all the way through with one player, then if it doesn't work, start fresh with player 2, then 3 and so forth.
     
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  10. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Just a Guy Staff Member Club Member

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    Thank you. Neither are super bowl appearances or championships.
     
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  11. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Well-Known Member

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    I'll take what you have and raise you a couple. Considering what you are saying about the odds of finding a great QB, our team should really focus on building the OL so that the mediocre QB we have back there has a fighting chance. Furthermore, we need a very strong defense to help us stay in close games. I would start with the DL. So my advice to Grier would be, suck it up, and build the trenches. It might be a one step back, two steps forward kind of thing, but sadly we are at the point where it has to be done. Just like with drafting a QB every few years.
     
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  12. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The thing with Luck is that he has not (yet) lived up to his hype. After about the 5-6th game this year he has played great.

    People look at Luck and see the team playing well, even though his stats are really comparable to RT's over their entire careers, and equate it to Luck being a "playoff QB". As if that means anything. lol....It's akin to the dolts who talk about, for example, Rivers being 0-6 against Brady. Well, no, not really. The Chargers are 0-6 against the Pats.

    Saying that, Luck has been playing awesome, up to the hype if you will, over the last 10 weeks or so. We will see if he can keep it up. I DO think he's a better QB than RT, he has not reached his ceiling yet.
     
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  13. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    We don't have a decent measure of OL, but just looking at recent SB winners I don't think you can argue the OL is anywhere near as important as the QB. Sometimes of course you have bad OL like with Seattle, but most of the time I think you'd argue it's around average. So I don't think the odds back up your approach.
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I think what we've seen recently IS his ceiling. The guy was more of a finished product coming out than almost any QB I remember, and he might be a tad bit better today but not THAT much. The big question is whether he keeps this up as you say.

    Either way, he's not playing at Russell Wilson level (statistically speaking) so I think history will show he was the 2nd best QB to come out of the 2012 draft even IF he keeps this up.
     
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  15. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Sometimes you have to take one step back to take two steps forward. He’s not the answer. We may see a decline but I’d rather do that than continue to be stuck in 5-8 win purgatory with no chance of a Super Bowl.
     
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  16. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Well-Known Member

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    OK, but that doesn't make sense to me. I am not sure how giving a guy time to throw and being able to run the ball when you need to is a bad thing.
     
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  17. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, I guess what I mean is that Luck is now playing at the level people thought he was capable of, but hasn't played like that consistently. This being his ceiling. Consistent AND great play.
     
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  18. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    It's not. Improving ANY aspect of the team will help the team win. The issue is that you're competing for resources (talent), so you can't expect to improve every aspect of your team while all others don't. In other words you need to prioritize what you improve on, and there you want to be smarter than other GM's. Not saying I'd make the right decisions, but I do think one should look at the trends, which suggests it's better to find that franchise QB than improving the OL IF you had to choose between the two.
     
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  19. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Just a Guy Staff Member Club Member

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    I think that people watching several teams win in spite of a bad OL has many some greedy, and think that any team can get away with it.

    With Luck, its not just the stats. Look at how he and the Colts were able to play in the first half this past week because of the improved OL. He stood tall in the pocket, sidestepped pressure a few times, and was able to lazor in mid range passes to open receivers the whole time. It was a thing of beauty.
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2019
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  20. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    With Luck under center the Colts were 33-15 from 2012-2014. With Luck under center the Colts reached the AFC championship game in 2014. With Luck under center the Colts are 4-3 in the playoffs since 2012.

    Without Luck under center the Colts don't have these accomplishments from 2012-2018. Better?
     
  21. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah Luck played like an elite QB that first half. I think in general he "looks" a ton better at QB than Tannehill ever did (excepting a few games here or there). But the "stats" are important to look at too, at least over time, because ultimately production is what is correlated with win%. And I think we've seen first hand how some QB's (e.g., Matt Moore) can look worse than Tannehill yet produce better than you'd expect based on how they "look".

    Luck keeps this up his stats will follow, but there's something that's hard to pin down about the guy that keeps his overall production lower than I think many observers would expect given how great he sometimes looks. Not sure what that is, but it's important to remember when comparing to other QB's that seem to have both (e.g., Rodgers or Marino, etc..)
     
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  22. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I said try again. Not repeat the false belief that wins/losses are a QB stat.
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Well.. let's qualify this statement about W/L being or not being a QB stat. It increasingly becomes a QB stat the larger sample size is because QB's clearly influence win% and the larger that influence is the smaller the sample size needed before it becomes a good QB stat (extreme case: QB has 100% influence => it IS a QB stat, while QB has 0% influence => it NEVER becomes a QB stat).

    Over a longer career, wins are highly correlated with who most people think are the best QB's, so I think it's fine to use win% over 10+ years or so as an indicator (not necessarily the best, but it is an indicator) of how good the QB is. What the confidence levels on win% are for it to be statistically acceptable as a QB stat I have no idea because, as stated, that depends on the proportion of win% due to the QB, which I once estimated to be closer to 15%.

    So I'd keep in mind that this is a sample size dependent problem. Have no idea if sample size is sufficient for Luck however.
     
  24. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Luck is a career 89 passer rating QB. Even if you take out 2015 when he was playing injured he's low 90's. Very average.

    However, and again, the last 10 or so games this season he has been playing lights out and showing that he can be elite. Will he keep that up? Maybe. And if he comes out next game and throws for 400 yards 4 TD's and no INT's, but the Colts lose, I won't hold that against him.

    (I'm guessing those that use wins/losses to determine individual play won't either...even though it's a loss...lol)
     
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  25. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, what if a QB as an 89 career passer rating with 33 wins and 15 losses?(I'm not sure if that's true, just using moosegut's stats)

    I don't think the QB really mattered much. I think he probably played well enough to not lose on most occasions?
     
  26. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I agree...but you don't have to clear the dart board in order to throw additional darts....that bullseye is still wide open to hit (as is the outer areas worth nothing). In other words, we can say Tannehill is not the long-term answer without saying let's fire everyone and hope that it all turns out okay.

    For instance, let's say your wife picks up Hellman's mayo from the store. You're a Miracle Whip kind of guy. Do you throw away that full bottle of Hellman's before driving to the store and getting what you think is "the good stuff"? No, because that's a stupid thing to do AND your wife will absolutely kick your *** for it. Besides, the Hellman's is okay in egg salad and tuna...it's just not your preference whenever you have a choice.

    Yet we have people here saying to "throw away" all our quarterbacks since the store will definitely have our favorite brand in stock and on sale whenever we feel like grabbing it. This is not a typical "mayonnaise" type of conversation though- a closer comparison would be the same scenario while you're on a life raft in the middle of the Pacific. The odds of finding the perfect bottle of Miracle Whip floating by is probably above one in a trillion...yet some folks are ready to roll the dice anyway.

    And I'm sorry, that's just dumb. I'm all for replacing Tannehill but we first have to find someone to replace him with.
     
  27. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah, adjusted to 2017 where the league average rating is 86.9 these are Luck's and Tannehill's stats:

    Luck
    2012: 77.66
    2013: 87.91
    2014: 94.33
    2015: 72.16
    2016: 93.81
    ...
    2018: 92.33

    Tannehill:
    2012: 77.26
    2013: 82.56
    2014: 90.71
    2015: 85.45
    2016: 90.99
    ...
    2018: 86.71

    Career attempts-weighted 2017-adjusted rating:
    Luck: 87.59
    Tannehill: 85.43
    Like I said I have no idea in Luck's case. We'd have to agree on what percent of win% is due to a QB and then I could start estimating that. Problem is that's ultimately subjective so I'd rather not play such games.
     
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  28. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I agree to an extent, I just think it's smart to time your move. My main fear is we commit 3-4 years to a guy who isn't even a very good prospect just because of this weak class. It doesn't have to be that way, but if we go QB its rare to do that back to back years meaning we are likely stuck a couple seasons.
     
  29. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Just a Guy Staff Member Club Member

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    I agree. Seeing that 2020 absolutely looks better, taking a QB in 2019 just seems foolish. At a minimum, its a waste of resources and a lost opprotunity to take a high quality player at another position.
     
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  30. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    Would it make you feel better if I said first 48 games?

     
  31. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I didn't write what you're quoting me as saying. Do you not know how the quote function works or are you making stuff up? If it's the former you need to read through all my posts about Luck in this thread. I think you're lost.
     
  32. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    Weird must be another danmarino club member in the thread titled "Dolphins - Raiders" post #619.Did you also not write the following? In the "My Opinion on Ryan Tannehill" thread post #6. You misspelled Patriots and accidentally wrote "Brady's record" which is weird because that looks like the Patriots record vs the AFC east.

    https://thephins.com/threads/my-opinion-on-ryan-tannehill.91160/#post-2939406

    https://thephins.com/threads/dolphins-raiders.93518/page-16#post-3093190

     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2019
  33. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Well-Known Member

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    My bad. I didn't make it clear. I am in favor of doing everything we can to find a franchise QB even if we have to take a QB every 2 or 3 seasons. I also am in favor of building up our OL and DL while we are at it. One isn't mutually exclusive of the other, to me.
     
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  34. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Amen! RTH wasn’t our only issue. We need to be a better football team on a lot of levels.
     
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  35. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    No we don't. We could use the salary differential to fill other holes because the chasm between Tannehill and whoever we replace him with likely isn't significant enough to drag the franchise thru another year of the same crap all over again.

    As they say, the definition of insanity is ......
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2019
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  36. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    OH, I gotcha. My bad. I really didn't look at anything past the bolded 10-1 and thought you wrote that and quoted me as if I wrote it from somewhere in this thread. I didn't realize that I own you so badly that you're reduced to searching the forum for my screen name. lol

    Anyhow, context. It's what's needed when you're having most any conversation about most topics. You should read the entire thread...if you're capable. Anyhow, here was my post right before the one you quoted:


    RT has now played 16 games under Gase:

    The Dolphins are 11-5 ( 10-1 over last 11 games)

    He is 315 of 463, 3682 yards and 26 TD's and 13 INT's
    68 comp % ( 3rd best since 2016)
    7.95 YPA (4th best in the NFL since 2016)
    98 passer rating (7th best since 2016)



    Not only did I included the record, but I included all of the stats and mentioned "THE DOLPHINS" with RT at QB. The post you quoted in this thread was off that original one. Learn to read, comprehend, and conceptualize, please.

    In the Pats thread you linked I was specifically replying to Brandon about the wins and losses that he brought up.

    Try again, please.
     
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  37. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    By the way - in regards to Luck didn't it come out that he had been playing with that injury for a long time before he finally had the surgery?
     
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  38. Miamiforlife

    Miamiforlife Member

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    Actually we looked good with osweiller till he had to throw the ball? Somehow he was able to not get sacked every play. Also he seemed to find open receivers. He just couldn’t get them the ball. I don’t think our overall team is as bad as some are acting. When the coaches didn’t let us down. We beat the bears and pats.
    I think osweiller exposed tannehills weaknesses. And his own also. Get a good qb. Then you can properly judge your whole team.
     
  39. Miamiforlife

    Miamiforlife Member

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    Luck is a stud. Take away his injury. He would be the best. Just my opinion. No stats to back it up.
     
  40. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yes, in 2015. That's why I said even if you throw out that 2015 season he has middling stats and was never consistent. Well, at least up until the last 10-11 games of this season.
     

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