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Will Our Next QB Be Better than Tannehill in 2019?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Jan 5, 2019.

Will our next QB play better or worse than RT did last year?

  1. Absolutely!

    16 vote(s)
    55.2%
  2. No Chance!

    13 vote(s)
    44.8%
  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Very straightforward question and there's no basis here for what is "better" or "worse" (QBR, games won, comebacks, command of the pocket or whatever)....that's completely your call on how you rate those sorts of things overall.

    I simply want to know if you expect our next QB to play better or worse in 2019 than Tannehill did this season.
     
  2. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    No fan of tannehill but I fully expect next years QB to be worse and I'm fine with it.
    2019 build the lines as best as possible and target the future Qb in 2020.
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019
  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Not a problem- that's exactly the type of answer I was looking for. Just curious what the forum expects overall once we part ways with RT.
     
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I think there's equal chance he's better or worse since Tannehill is statistically an average QB.

    I'd prefer to have a 3rd option of "not sure" here because that's where I stand.
     
  5. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If it's a Vet I'd expect him to play better right out the gate or, why bother. If it's a rookie I'd expect him to play worse but, show steady improvement or, the search continues.
     
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  6. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    If the new qb can at least be average on the road that's already an improvement.
     
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  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I hate these comparisons. You put Tannehill on an overall below average team, and he puts up overall average numbers. And somehow that's an indictment on Tannehill? Look, there are reasons to move on from Tannehill, I'd argue his age and injuries are the two biggest reasons, but I don't believe that QBs that are "average" but are on teams that are overall average or above average, would do as well in Miami.

    I think Tannehill has done better than he should given the team around him. Moving on is fine, but again, I don't think the reasons are primarily his level of play.
     
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  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Sure... However, without improving the oline and receivers, I'm not sure how you can expect a new QB to be better than Tannehill on the road.
     
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  9. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah I know.. after years of reading your posts I get that's what you think. Personally though I think his career stats are fairly on mark. The guy IMO is an average QB and I think the issues with his surrounding cast have been vastly overblown by many who think the problem wasn't Tannehill. I mean.. a lot of things have changed, from coaching to players, and the result is still mediocre.

    So you and I have different opinions about this, but as sample size increases simple stats like passer rating have a high correlation to who most people think are the best QB's and I don't think Tannehill is some weird exception to the rule.
     
  10. Losferwords

    Losferwords New Member

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    Ryan is that you?
     
  11. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Derp, derp
     
  12. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Rosen

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    I am kind of in the middle like cbrad, but I selected NO CHANCE. My reasoning is most likely the QB will be learning a lot of new things like their new coaches, perhaps a new system, and new teammates. Considering our QB options will be limited, I don't anticipate us being able to snag a legitimate franchise QB and we will most likely have a bridge QB to hold us over. If we are able to grab a guy who is a legitimate developmental guy who has a strong chance to become the QB we all hope for, then that would be stoked because that would be the most exciting for me. I am just looking for steady improvement game after game, year after year.
     
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  13. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I think that our starting QB in 2019 will absolutely be worse than Ryan Tannehill, if that's the question. Probably less skilled, and also likely with a worse team around him as we tear things down.

    Now, if the question is whether our next long term starter is better than RT, that's a bigger one. RT is easily the third best QB in Dolphins history. He started 88 games over six seasons, with solid production every year after his rookie season.
     
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  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's definitely a different question...I was going to wait for a consensus one way or the other and then ask if it was a smart investment to have a down year with a new QB who still might not be the long-term answer. In other words, are we willing to lose more games in the next few years while trying to find the next QB?

    The reason I'm asking is because the #1 reason I've seen here for these changes is that we're sick of mediocrity. I think the odds are favorable that we'll be below that standard next season without having any more answers than we have today. So what happens when we're 4-12 at the end of 2019 if people are going berserk over 7-9 this year?

    Okay, the 4-12 gets us a great prospect in one of the best QB drafts in awhile. Yay! The Jets did that and went 4-12. Buffalo did that and went 6-10. Are we happy in 2020 with a possible QB of the future when we're still only winning 5 games?

    Stay with me for just a few more seconds....

    The reason this matters is because if Ross, the fans or anyone is going to throw temper tantrums over 7-9, I just about guarantee you that it will be downright ugly once we turn into the new Cleveland (circa 2016). That means the coach we're about to hire doesn't matter because he will be fired within 24 months no matter what. That tells me the GM doesn't matter because he's following that guy right out the door. And while we may finally have our quarterback (cBrad gave it a 25% chance that a high 1st rounder develops), we likely won't be back to 2018's mediocre levels for a good 3-5 seasons.

    Now, I may not be the sharpest tool in the shed, but if I can follow that line of thinking then I think anyone qualified to coach a NFL team will see the exact same pattern. Forget about our "wish list" for head coaches because none of them are dumb enough to become the new Cleveland. Heck, maybe Rizzi even says no. Because once you hire that coach who doesn't have a QB and doesn't have even a prospect to hope for in 2019, we're pretty much screwed without Tannehill or a similar veteran.

    I just wanted to make sure that everyone fully realizes what they're asking for- we're currently on the path to re-enter the dark ages of Dolphins football. And I just don't see a path forward without a legit starting QB by 2020.
     
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  15. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Ross has to make it absolutely clear to any new HC that he has 3 years to build a playoff caliber team and that he's fine with 2019 essentially being a throw away year. But no excuses for 2021 and he expects clear improvement over 2019 in 2020. He does that and I don't think you'll scare away potential HC candidates. In fact, it might make the job more attractive because you have some space to build something.
     
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  16. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I am wholly, 100% in favor of burning the entire thing to the ground and starting over, with the exception of trying to extend Tunsil, Howard and a few key others. Of fielding a team likely to win two to four games next season.

    I wanted to give the offense one more shot to show that they could be good. I liked RT, Drake, Parker, and Stills, and was eager to see the new additions of Wilson and Gesicki. But Gase's offense is just awful, so it sucked, and its time to abandon ship and start totally over. All of it.

    I am totally opposed to drafting a QB high this year, because I don't really like any of the options, and the 2020 class should be much better, possibly with four QBs better than anyone in 2019. So I see us signing a mediocre veteran as the starter on a one or two year deal, and he likely plays fairly poorly given his own skills and who he has helping him. We bottom out, and draft one in the first round after that.
     
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  17. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    The odds of next season being awful are really, really high.
     
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  18. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    And yet much has never changed. The oline has been a shambles through every coaching staff, the defense has not been able to stop tight ends or get off the field on third downs, and we've not had a true number one receiver. So you like to act like everything has changed except Tannehill, and those results prove he's no good, but that premise is very wrong. There is a ton that has never changed from staff to staff.

    Yeah, Tannehill has put up average stats. But to sit here and act like these Dolphins teams haven't been overall below average is just silly.
     
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  19. Agua

    Agua Reality: Try It!

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    It's pretty likely the next QB will play better or worse than RT17, with the slim chance he plays the same. I think this is a flawed poll unless that's actually what you wanted opinions on.
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    A lot has changed. First of all the coaches. Second of all our defense was twice ranked top 10, 3 times ranked 18-20 and once ranked bottom 10 in the 6 years Tannehill played. Our running game measured by yards per carry was top 10 in 4 of the 6 years!! he played. In fact those 4 years were the last 4 Tannehill was QB (we were #2 in Y/C in 2014 and top 10 in 2015, 2016 and 2018) while our running game was below average in 2012 and 2013. And our WR unit certainly changed a lot. Early on with Wallace you could argue he didn't have a WR he had chemistry with, but later on with Landry and Stills we actually had a pretty good WR unit.

    Really it's just the OL where you can argue has stayed bad. But again it's worth noting that when a QB changes teams sack% is more highly correlated before and after the switch, than Comp%, Y/A, TD% or INT%. In other words, the QB is often a major reason for that QB's sack%. Can't just pin it all on the OL. And we all see how bad pocket presence Tannehill has so the stats jibe with observation.

    Point is, IMO it's completely untenable to argue Tannehill has just been in such a bad situation regarding his coaching and surrounding cast that he just can't develop to his potential. Nah.. he DID develop to his potential, which is mediocre.
     
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  21. mbsinmisc

    mbsinmisc Season Ticket Holder

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    The way the question is phrased makes no sense. You cannot vote better or worse, just absolutely or no chance. Am I missing something? I think our QB next year is Ryan Tannehill. I think he plays better.
     
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  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I specifically wanted opinions on one side of the fence or the other. You're right- we have no idea. But when did that stop anyone from sharing their opinion? LOL
     
  23. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Member when ppl were trying to compare Andrew Luck to Ryan Tannehill?

    :bless::bless:
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah he's playing elite right now. His career stats aren't there yet but if this continues that will quickly change.
     
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  25. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    ....OL was just fine with Cutler.. do you think that is a coincidence?
     
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  26. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    To hell with stats, he is a top 5 QB in this league, and I don’t need to google passer rating to come to that conclusion.
     
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  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    The year with Cutler was our worst of the three. But yeah, no problems with the line at all that season...
     
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  28. Agua

    Agua Reality: Try It!

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    Well, playing the odds and within the limitations of the available poll responses, then

    ABSOLUTELY the next QB will play better or worse than Tannehill last year.
     
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  29. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    How do you mean?
     
  30. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    There’s a 50/50 chance our next qb will be better or worse than Tannehill.
     
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  31. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill was pretty good at home 119 qb rating, 12 td, 4 int, 9.2 y/a but atrocious on the road 73 qb rating, 5 td, 5 int, 5.7 y/a.

    He had the same oline and receivers on the road as he did at home. Tannehill just shrinks in big games, road games, @ Buffalo. I 100% believe if we drafted lets say Baker Mayfield he would get more out of this team than Tannehill. Not saying we're playoff bound but maybe he throws more TD's than int's, maybe his qb rating is a respectable 85+ that would be a start.
     
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  32. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Ryan is simply not good upstairs. He is pretty damn good physically, but the dude has no aptitude or feel for the QB position.

    I think he should retire and focus on family instead of this brutal sport.
     
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  33. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    If he’s a draft pick worse or possibly on par, if he’s a free agent he damn well better be!!
     
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Right. Because the rest of the team all played at their normal levels, it was all Tannehill. Not to mention, just looking at this season, two of his highest ratings were away at the Jets and away at Indy.
     
  35. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    your poll answers are awful for the question... am i answering absolutely for better or worse? am i answering no chance for better or worse?

    make a proper poll with proper answers.

    Will the next QB better or worse than Thill?

    option 1 better

    option 2 worse
     
  36. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What if this is the true state of affairs:

    Tannehill on a poor team -- passer rating around 88.
    Tannehill on an average team -- passer rating around 94.
    Tannehill on a great team -- passer rating around 100.

    Great QB on a poor team -- passer rating around 100.
    Great QB on an average team -- passer rating around 106.
    Great QB on a great team -- passer rating around 112.

    So, if that's the true state of affairs, you can see how Tannehill limits a team. The team has to be great for him to play at a level associated with Super Bowl contention.

    With a great QB by contrast, the team can be poor and he nonetheless plays at a level associated with Super Bowl contention.
     
  37. Itsdahumidity

    Itsdahumidity X gonna take it from ya

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    Pepperidge Farm remembers.

    Yeah, that was certain wishful thinking dolfans. I was never fooled though.
     
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  38. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    Yes yes I know everything is every one else's fault Tannehill is never responsible for his poor play.
     
  39. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I know you're being sarcastic, but if that were actually true, then Tannehill couldn't possibly be responsible for his own good play, as well. That would always be a product of the rest of the team.

    If his poor play is the fault of something else, then his good play has to be attributed to the same thing.

    So whoever attributes Tannehill's poor play to something else is implicitly limiting the responsibility that can be ascribed to him for his good play, as well. For them, implicitly, Tannehill can never be good in his own right.
     
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  40. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    lol.. love the responses in this thread about how the poll is not worded well. However, Agua I think hit it on the nail and since no one seemed to appreciate it, let me do so.

    Agua said:
    To explain this logic in case people missed it, suppose you have a fair coin that comes up heads 50% of the time and tails 50% of the time. What is the probability it comes up EITHER heads or tails? Well.. that probability is 100%.

    That's what Agua is saying. That there is actually a "correct" answer to this poll question: ABSOLUTELY the next QB will play better OR worse than Tannehill last year, excepting of course the extremely slim probability he plays exactly the same. lol.. thinking like a mathematician.
     
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