Will Our Next QB Be Better than Tannehill in 2019?

"KeyFin wrote:

Very straightforward question and there's no basis here for what is "better" or "worse" (QBR, games won, comebacks, command of the pocket or whatever)....that's completely your call on how you rate those sorts of things overall.

I simply want to know if you expect our next QB to play better or worse in 2019 than Tannehill did this season.

No fan of tannehill but I fully expect next years QB to be worse and I'm fine with it.
2019 build the lines as best as possible and target the future Qb in 2020.

"pumpdogs wrote:

No fan of tannehill but I fully expect next years QB to be worse and I'm fine with it.
2019 built the lines as best as possible and target the future Qb in 2020.

Not a problem- that's exactly the type of answer I was looking for. Just curious what the forum expects overall once we part ways with RT.

I think there's equal chance he's better or worse since Tannehill is statistically an average QB.

I'd prefer to have a 3rd option of "not sure" here because that's where I stand.

If it's a Vet I'd expect him to play better right out the gate or, why bother. If it's a rookie I'd expect him to play worse but, show steady improvement or, the search continues.

If the new qb can at least be average on the road that's already an improvement.

"cbrad wrote:

I think there's equal chance he's better or worse since Tannehill is statistically an average QB.

I'd prefer to have a 3rd option of "not sure" here because that's where I stand.

I hate these comparisons. You put Tannehill on an overall below average team, and he puts up overall average numbers. And somehow that's an indictment on Tannehill? Look, there are reasons to move on from Tannehill, I'd argue his age and injuries are the two biggest reasons, but I don't believe that QBs that are "average" but are on teams that are overall average or above average, would do as well in Miami.

I think Tannehill has done better than he should given the team around him. Moving on is fine, but again, I don't think the reasons are primarily his level of play.

"mooseguts wrote:

If the new qb can at least be average on the road that's already an improvement.

Sure... However, without improving the oline and receivers, I'm not sure how you can expect a new QB to be better than Tannehill on the road.

"resnor wrote:

I hate these comparisons. You put Tannehill on an overall below average team, and he puts up overall average numbers. And somehow that's an indictment on Tannehill? Look, there are reasons to move on from Tannehill, I'd argue his age and injuries are the two biggest reasons, but I don't believe that QBs that are "average" but are on teams that are overall average or above average, would do as well in Miami.

I think Tannehill has done better than he should given the team around him. Moving on is fine, but again, I don't think the reasons are primarily his level of play.

Yeah I know.. after years of reading your posts I get that's what you think. Personally though I think his career stats are fairly on mark. The guy IMO is an average QB and I think the issues with his surrounding cast have been vastly overblown by many who think the problem wasn't Tannehill. I mean.. a lot of things have changed, from coaching to players, and the result is still mediocre.

So you and I have different opinions about this, but as sample size increases simple stats like passer rating have a high correlation to who most people think are the best QB's and I don't think Tannehill is some weird exception to the rule.

"resnor wrote:

Sure... However, without improving the oline and receivers, I'm not sure how you can expect a new QB to be better than Tannehill on the road.

Ryan is that you?

"Losferwords wrote:

derp, derp, derp, derp

Derp, derp

I am kind of in the middle like cbrad, but I selected NO CHANCE. My reasoning is most likely the QB will be learning a lot of new things like their new coaches, perhaps a new system, and new teammates. Considering our QB options will be limited, I don't anticipate us being able to snag a legitimate franchise QB and we will most likely have a bridge QB to hold us over. If we are able to grab a guy who is a legitimate developmental guy who has a strong chance to become the QB we all hope for, then that would be stoked because that would be the most exciting for me. I am just looking for steady improvement game after game, year after year.

I think that our starting QB in 2019 will absolutely be worse than Ryan Tannehill, if that's the question. Probably less skilled, and also likely with a worse team around him as we tear things down.

Now, if the question is whether our next long term starter is better than RT, that's a bigger one. RT is easily the third best QB in Dolphins history. He started 88 games over six seasons, with solid production every year after his rookie season.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I think that our starting QB in 2019 will absolutely be worse than Ryan Tannehill, if that's the question. Probably less skilled, and also likely with a worse team around him as we tear things down.

Now, if the question is whether our next long term starter is better than RT, that's a bigger one. RT is easily the third best QB in Dolphins history. He started 88 games over six seasons, with solid production every year after his rookie season.

That's definitely a different question...I was going to wait for a consensus one way or the other and then ask if it was a smart investment to have a down year with a new QB who still might not be the long-term answer. In other words, are we willing to lose more games in the next few years while trying to find the next QB?

The reason I'm asking is because the #1 reason I've seen here for these changes is that we're sick of mediocrity. I think the odds are favorable that we'll be below that standard next season without having any more answers than we have today. So what happens when we're 4-12 at the end of 2019 if people are going berserk over 7-9 this year?

Okay, the 4-12 gets us a great prospect in one of the best QB drafts in awhile. Yay! The Jets did that and went 4-12. Buffalo did that and went 6-10. Are we happy in 2020 with a possible QB of the future when we're still only winning 5 games?

Stay with me for just a few more seconds....

The reason this matters is because if Ross, the fans or anyone is going to throw temper tantrums over 7-9, I just about guarantee you that it will be downright ugly once we turn into the new Cleveland (circa 2016). That means the coach we're about to hire doesn't matter because he will be fired within 24 months no matter what. That tells me the GM doesn't matter because he's following that guy right out the door. And while we may finally have our quarterback (cBrad gave it a 25% chance that a high 1st rounder develops), we likely won't be back to 2018's mediocre levels for a good 3-5 seasons.

Now, I may not be the sharpest tool in the shed, but if I can follow that line of thinking then I think anyone qualified to coach a NFL team will see the exact same pattern. Forget about our "wish list" for head coaches because none of them are dumb enough to become the new Cleveland. Heck, maybe Rizzi even says no. Because once you hire that coach who doesn't have a QB and doesn't have even a prospect to hope for in 2019, we're pretty much screwed without Tannehill or a similar veteran.

I just wanted to make sure that everyone fully realizes what they're asking for- we're currently on the path to re-enter the dark ages of Dolphins football. And I just don't see a path forward without a legit starting QB by 2020.

"KeyFin wrote:

That's definitely a different question...I was going to wait for a consensus one way or the other and then ask if it was a smart investment to have a down year with a new QB who still might not be the long-term answer. In other words, are we willing to lose more games in the next few years while trying to find the next QB?

The reason I'm asking is because the #1 reason I've seen here for these changes is that we're sick of mediocrity. I think the odds are favorable that we'll be below that standard next season without having any more answers than we have today. So what happens when we're 4-12 at the end of 2019 if people are going berserk over 7-9 this year?

Okay, the 4-12 gets us a great prospect in one of the best QB drafts in awhile. Yay! The Jets did that and went 4-12. Buffalo did that and went 6-10. Are we happy in 2020 with a possible QB of the future when we're still only winning 5 games?

Stay with me for just a few more seconds....

The reason this matters is because if Ross, the fans or anyone is going to throw temper tantrums over 7-9, I just about guarantee you that it will be downright ugly once we turn into the new Cleveland (circa 2016). That means the coach we're about to hire doesn't matter because he will be fired within 24 months no matter what. That tells me the GM doesn't matter because he's following that guy right out the door. And while we may finally have our quarterback (cBrad gave it a 25% chance that a high 1st rounder develops), we likely won't be back to 2018's mediocre levels for a good 3-5 seasons.

Now, I may not be the sharpest tool in the shed, but if I can follow that line of thinking then I think anyone qualified to coach a NFL team will see the exact same pattern. Forget about our "wish list" for head coaches because none of them are dumb enough to become the new Cleveland. Heck, maybe Rizzi even says no. Because once you hire that coach who doesn't have a QB and doesn't have even a prospect to hope for in 2019, we're pretty much screwed without Tannehill or a similar veteran.

I just wanted to make sure that everyone fully realizes what they're asking for- we're currently on the path to re-enter the dark ages of Dolphins football. And I just don't see a path forward without a legit starting QB by 2020.

Ross has to make it absolutely clear to any new HC that he has 3 years to build a playoff caliber team and that he's fine with 2019 essentially being a throw away year. But no excuses for 2021 and he expects clear improvement over 2019 in 2020. He does that and I don't think you'll scare away potential HC candidates. In fact, it might make the job more attractive because you have some space to build something.

I am wholly, 100% in favor of burning the entire thing to the ground and starting over, with the exception of trying to extend Tunsil, Howard and a few key others. Of fielding a team likely to win two to four games next season.

I wanted to give the offense one more shot to show that they could be good. I liked RT, Drake, Parker, and Stills, and was eager to see the new additions of Wilson and Gesicki. But Gase's offense is just awful, so it sucked, and its time to abandon ship and start totally over. All of it.

I am totally opposed to drafting a QB high this year, because I don't really like any of the options, and the 2020 class should be much better, possibly with four QBs better than anyone in 2019. So I see us signing a mediocre veteran as the starter on a one or two year deal, and he likely plays fairly poorly given his own skills and who he has helping him. We bottom out, and draft one in the first round after that.

"Miamiforlife wrote:

Of course.
Or next season is going to be awfull?

The odds of next season being awful are really, really high.

"cbrad wrote:

Yeah I know.. after years of reading your posts I get that's what you think. Personally though I think his career stats are fairly on mark. The guy IMO is an average QB and I think the issues with his surrounding cast have been vastly overblown by many who think the problem wasn't Tannehill. I mean.. a lot of things have changed, from coaching to players, and the result is still mediocre.

So you and I have different opinions about this, but as sample size increases simple stats like passer rating have a high correlation to who most people think are the best QB's and I don't think Tannehill is some weird exception to the rule.

And yet much has never changed. The oline has been a shambles through every coaching staff, the defense has not been able to stop tight ends or get off the field on third downs, and we've not had a true number one receiver. So you like to act like everything has changed except Tannehill, and those results prove he's no good, but that premise is very wrong. There is a ton that has never changed from staff to staff.

Yeah, Tannehill has put up average stats. But to sit here and act like these Dolphins teams haven't been overall below average is just silly.

It's pretty likely the next QB will play better or worse than RT17, with the slim chance he plays the same. I think this is a flawed poll unless that's actually what you wanted opinions on.

"resnor wrote:

And yet much has never changed. The oline has been a shambles through every coaching staff, the defense has not been able to stop tight ends or get off the field on third downs, and we've not had a true number one receiver. So you like to act like everything has changed except Tannehill, and those results prove he's no good, but that premise is very wrong. There is a ton that has never changed from staff to staff.

Yeah, Tannehill has put up average stats. But to sit here and act like these Dolphins teams haven't been overall below average is just silly.

A lot has changed. First of all the coaches. Second of all our defense was twice ranked top 10, 3 times ranked 18-20 and once ranked bottom 10 in the 6 years Tannehill played. Our running game measured by yards per carry was top 10 in 4 of the 6 years!! he played. In fact those 4 years were the last 4 Tannehill was QB (we were #2 in Y/C in 2014 and top 10 in 2015, 2016 and 2018) while our running game was below average in 2012 and 2013. And our WR unit certainly changed a lot. Early on with Wallace you could argue he didn't have a WR he had chemistry with, but later on with Landry and Stills we actually had a pretty good WR unit.

Really it's just the OL where you can argue has stayed bad. But again it's worth noting that when a QB changes teams sack% is more highly correlated before and after the switch, than Comp%, Y/A, TD% or INT%. In other words, the QB is often a major reason for that QB's sack%. Can't just pin it all on the OL. And we all see how bad pocket presence Tannehill has so the stats jibe with observation.

Point is, IMO it's completely untenable to argue Tannehill has just been in such a bad situation regarding his coaching and surrounding cast that he just can't develop to his potential. Nah.. he DID develop to his potential, which is mediocre.

"KeyFin wrote:

Very straightforward question and there's no basis here for what is "better" or "worse" (QBR, games won, comebacks, command of the pocket or whatever)....that's completely your call on how you rate those sorts of things overall.

I simply want to know if you expect our next QB to play better or worse in 2019 than Tannehill did this season.

The way the question is phrased makes no sense. You cannot vote better or worse, just absolutely or no chance. Am I missing something? I think our QB next year is Ryan Tannehill. I think he plays better.

"Agua wrote:

It's pretty likely the next QB will play better or worse than RT17, with the slim chance he plays the same. I think this is a flawed poll unless that's actually what you wanted opinions on.

I specifically wanted opinions on one side of the fence or the other. You're right- we have no idea. But when did that stop anyone from sharing their opinion? LOL

Member when ppl were trying to compare Andrew Luck to Ryan Tannehill?

:bless::bless:

"Fin-O wrote:

Member when ppl were trying to compare Andrew Luck to Ryan Tannehill?

:bless::bless:

Yeah he's playing elite right now. His career stats aren't there yet but if this continues that will quickly change.

"resnor wrote:

And yet much has never changed. The oline has been a shambles through every coaching staff, the defense has not been able to stop tight ends or get off the field on third downs, and we've not had a true number one receiver. So you like to act like everything has changed except Tannehill, and those results prove he's no good, but that premise is very wrong. There is a ton that has never changed from staff to staff.

Yeah, Tannehill has put up average stats. But to sit here and act like these Dolphins teams haven't been overall below average is just silly.

....OL was just fine with Cutler.. do you think that is a coincidence?