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Wide Receivers in the First Round

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by KB21, Mar 21, 2011.

  1. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    Everyone on here knows my views on taking a wide receiver in the first round. Well, here is an excellent write up that gives you strong data for why taking a wide receiver high in the first round is foolish.

    http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/P...t/Draft_2011_WR Draft history_3-17-11_1.0.htm

    I'm a conservative person. I like to play the odds. I don't like to take big gambles and risks when I do things. This is why I have never been for drafting a wide receiver in the first round, much less the top 15 picks of the first round.

    If someone told you that by taking a wide receiver in the top 15 picks of the draft that you will have a 15.8% chance that said wide receiver will be an elite receiver, would you take it? Would you draft the first wide receiver on the pundit's boards with your first pick if you were told that there is only a 20% chance that the first wide receiver taken will be the best receiver from that class?

    I wouldn't. I would take the 70% chance that the best wide receiver will be drafted after the 25th pick in the first round.

    Plus, even if you get an elite wide receiver, his overall impact on the game is not going going to mean much from a wins and losses standpoint. Therefore, why spend major resources to get one when the impact is going to be so small?
     

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