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Why wouldn't we out TUA in late game?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Dorfdad, Oct 12, 2020.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Is this a joke on your part???

    It says this:
    "Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating, which values the quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses faced."

    And you think (your words) "they've defined all the ingredients of QBR". LOLOL. Have you NEVER read a marketing label before? When a company says "We did X" that does NOT imply they didn't do Y. lol. Seriously, man don't be so naive.

    Regardless, ESPN themselves tell you they use air yards and QB pressures as well as MUCH more:
    https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo...-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating
    It's that "division of credit" where the subjective part comes in. There's no real statistical way to do that in practice. Theoretically you can compare variances in some stat (e.g., win%) when you replace one player vs. another and show that variance in that stat was X times greater in one case than the other, thus estimating the relative contribution of both positions. But in practice you can't really get that kind of data. So anyone going around saying they have some way of "dividing credit" amongst players is just inserting subjective assumptions. Same is true for DVOA.

    In any case, 10,000+ lines of code makes sense when you try to take into account anything and everything you think might be important but don't know how best to incorporate all those variables. And precisely because you made all kinds of ad hoc assumptions you keep it secret instead of showing the world how brilliant you are lol.

    ESPN QBR is a joke. If it's that similar to EPA they should just use EPA and be done with it, but no they'd rather act like they have something special when they don't.
     
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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    In terms of dividing credit, what is the difference between this:
    ...and this:

    https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-introduction-to-completion-probability-0ap3000000964655
     
  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The point you're missing is that I gave my opinions and then talked about what was happening on the football field that supports those decisions. That doesn't mean I'm right, but I'm advancing the conversation past just giving my opinion...I'm including new thoughts and details.

    You're just repeating yourself though and ignoring when people ask "WHY" you feel that way. You can't say "Tua sucks because I think he sucks" over and over again. Tell us the WHY so it's a two-way conversation.
     
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  4. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    Unfortunately, there really isn't much to expand on with what I think. I already said that I think that the injury was worse than they thought or he looks terrible in practice or can't grasp the play book. He could have gotten some playing time against NE,Jacksonville and definitely SF.
     
  5. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Completely different concepts. Completion probability is just the probability of completing a pass in different situations. There's no division of credit there between QB and WR, or OL, etc.. Division of credit means you take some stat like EPA and say X% of that was due to the QB, Y% due to the WR, etc. That can't be done purely statistically in practice, which is why ESPN is building in tons of assumptions on how to do that and why you can dismiss what they do.
     
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  6. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The injury was devastating and some players never come back 100% from it...so that's a real possibility. Medical reports say he's healed fully but the general medical view is that it's better to give him a full year of recovery, so I think that's what they are doing.

    In terms of practice, everything points to him looking great...but that's also without contact. So we just don't know. He definitely did not belong in the NE game though because they were getting great pressure....there's no reason to take that chance if you already know what you have. And I think that's the biggest point of them all- we took a look early at Rosen because we didn't know what we had. With Tua, they're extremely confident in him and I think that shows in them benching him for the full year.
     
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  7. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Ok, all that graphic looks like to me is a piece of paper, quartered and Fathead team logos indiscriminately tossed on to it. It has no meaning to.

    One of the problems you stats guys have is you spit out things such a deviations and EPA and numbers and and charts and graphs and yada yada yada and expect it to mean something to everyone.

    You could post in Mandarin Chinese or Arabic or Dari or Pashtu and I would have an equal understanding of what you stats guys post.
     
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  8. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah well, learning never hurt anybody.
     
  9. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Dolphins led by 26 points when they got the ball back with 4:09 remaining Sunday. It seemed like a perfect time for Tua Tagovailoa to make his NFL debut. Alas, Tagovailoa remained on the bench and Ryan Fitzpatrick finished the game.

    “It’s not something that I’m really thinking about,” coach Brian Flores said Monday, via Joe Schad of The Palm Beach Post.

    “I don’t know what we really get out of that, in my opinion,” Flores said. “If he gets a couple of snaps in a game, I’m not sure. We’re running the ball the whole time. If we want to give it to him and let him hand the ball off, I guess maybe that will make some people happy, but I just don’t see any real point in that. That’s just my opinion.”

    Several teams have used or have had to use backup quarterbacks this season, including Dallas and Washington on Sunday. The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott to a gruesome ankle injury, and Kyle Allen left with a arm injury. It might take an injury to Fitzpatrick for Tagovailoa to see the field, but the Dolphins want him to remain at the ready in case of emergency.

    “I think every week we see quarterbacks go down in this league,” Flores said. “It’s unfortunate. You never want to see it. I feel terrible for Dak Prescott, seeing that injury, so thoughts and prayers to him. I believe he had surgery today. He’s a great player. A lot of respect for him. You saw some guys go down. The Washington quarterback — Kyle Allen — got hit in the head, and then Alex Smith went in. So you see this go on throughout the league. Tua is our No. 2. He can go in at any moment in the game. He’ll be ready to go when his number is called.”
     
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  10. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    He'd be more ready if he had to go in for an injury if he was given a few plays late in the game to get him ready.
     
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  11. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    LMAO, I couldn't see that graphic because that person has me blocked....but I just wanted to personally let you know that your comment was the highlight of my entire afternoon.
     
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  12. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Log off and come back to the site without logging on. Then you can see all the posts, even from posters that blocked you.
     
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  13. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    But then he'd have to remember his password. So many passwords.Lol
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    If your browser remembers the password, then you don't have to remember it either way. However, if you don't want to take the extra step of logging off, then just open a separate incognito browser (in Chrome, click upper right 3 dots, then click "New Incognito Window"). That way you have two separate browsers, one logged in and one so you can see all posts.

    Getting used to that incognito browser is useful anyway as it allows you to get access to news sites that only allow you to read a limited number of articles.
     
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  15. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    Thank! You!
     
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  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I didn't know that, about the limited article sites.
     
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  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yes, that incognito browser is awesome...I use it for all kinds of things as well. It used to be great for accessing area-specific broadcasts on radio/tv (almost like a VPN), but unfortunately that doesn't work anymore. I still use it for Herald articles all the time though.
     
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  18. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    You....you just blew my mind.
     
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  19. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's awesome. I only have been using incognito for other reasons. :-)
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 13, 2020
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  20. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Did you ever think that maybe you're overreacting a tad???
     
  21. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    It's not like the dolphins have been a playoff team the past 15 years or not like they've made horrible personel decisions for the past 20 years. I'm sorry if I'm a little jaded
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2020
  22. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I agree with you. Not that I believe Flores is going to be a bust or know that Tua will be a bust, but there is no reason to trust this front office or this coaching staff until they prove it. I've heard all this crap before.
     
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  23. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I feel the same way but at some point you just have to say you’re going to be hopeful/optimistic or live in misery from a horrible 2 decades.

    I don’t know if Flores or Grier are the right guys but I’m hopeful and they’ve given us some reason.
     
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  24. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    The Dolphins showed signs of being a somewhat of a competitive team in one game and there is a Dolphins playoff thread already. There is no overreacting on this website.
     
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  25. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    How would a few hand offs help him be more ready? I am struggling to understand the logic here.
     
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  26. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    Again, why would he only have to hand off? Why wouldn't a coach want to get his rookie "franchise" qb some game time experience. Flores could have put him in and called some screens, some crossing patterns, some read option plays. Sunday was the perfect time for that. Saying he'd only hand off is ridiculous. There is no rule that says you can only hand off when up big in the 4th quarter. So tua can't come in when the game is close cause fitz "gives us the best chance to win" and tua cant come in when the games out of hand because " what's the use, he'd only hand off". When exactly would be a good time for him to come in then?
     
  27. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So, you want to run "read option plays" when the game is won? The Dolphins don't run a bunch of RPO, when they do its more effective because there isn't a lot of film of it. I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt and say you weren't suggesting running straight run option plays with Tua.

    You don't run screens or crossing passes when up like that. First, the DL isn't pass rushing, so screens are less effective. Secondly, again, why would you expose your screen game? To get a few easy completions for Tua? You think that would help him? As for crossing routes, our WRs are just getting healthy. Why the hell would you do that when the game is won? Or, put in Grant and watch him stone hand an INT?

    The exact good time for Tua to come in is when he wins the starting job, Fitzpatrick (God forbid) gets hurt, or we are on the second half of a Fitztragic game. It's not complicated. Would I have a problem with Tua coming in to hand the ball off for a quarter? No, but the idea that not doing that says anything about Tua, or that doing that helps Tua develop is silly.

    I want to see Tua play too. With the way Fitzpatrick is playing, there is a chance we don't see him this year. When we see Tua is in Fitzy's hands as much as anybody I think.
     
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  28. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I would like our "franchise" QB to get as much game time experience as possible. You're ok with him not playing until next year ?
     
  29. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Because a head coach’s job is not to evaluate players during a game. His job is to win a game.

    The game is won. Are you going to risk potential injury to other skill set players in running a high explosive plays? Risk injury to a wide receiver in a potential devastating defensive hit in an unneeded pass attempt? Risk injury to players with blindsided hits should the defense intercept a Tua pass?

    At that point, the game is OVER. The Dolphins were going to run the ball (hopefully effectively) and run out the clock. For the win and for the health of the players, regardless of who was under center
     
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  30. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    An injury could happen at any time so you cant worry about that. Marino blew his Achilles out by just dropping back to pass. So again, when does our "franchise" QB get some game time experience?
     
  31. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wash, rinse, repeat.
     
  32. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Great with it, given his circumstances.
     
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  33. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    So long as the TEAM is getting better so when he does take over...and if...IF we were to keep winning (doubtful hence the emphasized "IF"), Tagovailoa can ride the bench all year long so the "race car" will be ready for the new driver to take over.

    History has shown the most successful quarterbacks in the league took over teams that were needing only a quarterback as the final piece of the puzzle.
     
  34. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    So in year 3 of Flores rebuild, we'll be starting a QB with no game experience. I hope he's as good as most people on here think he is or its gonna be another mediocre season
     
  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Looks like Ryan Fitzpatrick would like to weigh in on this:

     
  36. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah he prefers it because it gives him a higher score lol.

    Ask around the NFL. Who thinks Ryan Fitzpatrick is closer to an average QB than a top 5 QB? Because after 5 games traditional passer rating has him 17th, so basically average, while ESPN's crappy alternative has him at #5 lol.
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/passing.htm

    Sorry, I think ESPN will have some "explaining" to do again for this one. Not that it matters. Few take them seriously.
     
  37. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Guys, let's not hijack this thread, please. There's another thread about the discussion of stat analysis and these posts from Fitz are in the thread about post Niners news, or you can create a new one. But this is about not playing Tua, not discussing QB stats, please.
     
  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Honest question...but why would stats about Fitzpatrick not be applicable in a thread about whether or not Tua should be starting?
     
  39. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Simple. What real game experience would he gain from handing the ball off or taking a knee.

    You reserve that type of garbage for a scrub backup that isn't ever going to be your future unless something awful happens. You don't risk your future franchise QB hopeful in garbage time like that. If we were playing to come from behind and Fitz was awful all game, then sure, put him in to see if there's a spark to ignite a comeback but what's the point to putting him in up as big as we were with minutes to go. Handoffs and kneel downs. That's not experience; thats unnecessary risk with no reward IMO.

    Complete correct decision IMO
     
  40. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Is the interest really the question about whether Tua is sitting because Fitz is good or bad, or is it just an interest in how to evaluate QB's statistically? The former might be able to stay on topic but the latter is likely to go more and more off topic as it delves into the question of statistical analysis itself rather than Fitz vs. Tua etc.

    Moreover, does anyone really think that Flores is making his decisions about playing Tua based on a statistical analysis of Fitz?

    I'm not saying the discussion isn't worthwhile, but as mentioned, we already have threads discussing QB stats, I think it would be better not to submerge the main thrust of this thread, or others, under a ton of posts about the virtues of different methods of analysis.

    TLDR - If one thinks Tua is sitting because Fitz is better fine, state it, back it up. If one disagrees state it, back it up, and perhaps offer an alternative. But let's not get into an analysis of why one stat is better than another in this thread, let's stay on topic.
     
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