1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Why wouldn't we out TUA in late game?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Dorfdad, Oct 12, 2020.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    12,849
    7,979
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    Here are a few commentators on the issue:


    Chan Gailey on Tua being ready:
    “He’s one play away from having to play. I feel like he’ll go in and play well,” Dolphins offensive coordinator Chan Gailey said, according to ESPN. “He hadn’t been in a game at all so it’ll be a new experience for him. He’ll have to go in there with eyes wide open; but I think knowing the person that he is and knowing the type of preparation that he puts in, I think he’s going to be ready when his time is called.”


    Trent Dilfer
    “I think there's an argument for both,” Dilfer said regarding starting or sitting Tagovailoa. “I don't want to say one's right and one's wrong. To answer your question directly, if he struggles, it's not the end of the world. You get (high draft picks), you get possibly two in the first five picks. However, we just saw the league MVP sit for a year in Patrick Mahomes. (He) only had 35 pass attempts his rookie year and watched Alex Smith play. Now the Chiefs were winning so there wasn't the panic to put him in. But the value in sitting and watching, I tell my kids all the time, you don't have to make mistakes, you can watch other knuckleheads make mistakes. Learn from their mistakes.

    “If I'm handling it... I would wait. I would let Tua learn and watch from Fitzpatrick mistakes. Let's not forget, he came off a catastrophic hip injury. The best situation here is to sit him as long as possible. There is a sweet spot later in the season...if you are going to put him out there, it’ll be a few weeks from now.”



    Troy Aikman
    Speaking near the end of the Thursday Night Football broadcast during week three, Troy Aikman discussed Tagovailoa’s situation as a rookie sitting behind Fitzpatrick.

    “The 87 touchdown passes, he only threw 11 interceptions, which is pretty remarkable,” Aikman said on the broadcast. “I think back to last year. Josh Rosen was here. 10th overall pick. I know Josh, he said that Ryan Fitzpatrick, how great he was in the quarterback room, went out of his way to answer any questions...Josh felt he learned so much football just being around Ryan Fitzpatrick.

    “He's doing the exact same thing for Tua. What an opportunity for him to watch a pro goes about it, how he prepares. It's a tough business. There's a lot of demands on these quarterbacks. He's going to have to train to prepare for whenever that time comes.”



    Fitzpatrick on what's happening with him and Tua:
    Tua Tagovailoa is in a great spot with the Miami Dolphins. Especially with the wacky world of 2020 with no preseason games, he’s able to learn by watching. Ryan Fitzpatrick might be the perfect guy for him to watch. Fitzpatrick knows he’s just a bridge between Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. There’s no animosity between the two and Fitzpatrick is willing to play the role of teacher.

    “I probably talk more on the bench than I normally would in-between series,” Fitzpatrick said to ESPN. “I want him to kind of understand what I’m seeing and to be able to ask questions even if it is in a game-like setting. … It seemed like he saw the game pretty decent from the sidelines in terms of the stuff that we were talking about and the questions he was asking. It was good and it was a good start just to build on that communication now, just being another set of eyes for me to be able to trust.”


    And then this whole piece from ESPN's Cam Wolfe:
    https://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dol...has-yet-to-take-a-snap-but-hes-still-learning

    And this one from TDN:
    https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/dolphins-start-tua-tagovailoa-bench-fitzpatrick
     
  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    8,067
    9,545
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Just so you know, that's ESPN's proprietary QBR, not passer rating. Anytime you see "Total QBR" from an ESPN website that's what they mean. In terms of passer rating Fitz is almost exactly average at 95.3 (league average right now is 95.5):
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/passing.htm

    I think passer rating is more intuitive in this case because it's REALLY hard to consider Fitz a top 4 QB this year (i.e., over 5 games "average" seems right). Either way, it's best not to reference ESPN's QBR because it's a black box rating system with 10,000+ lines of code that no one outside of ESPN understands (e.g., how are they defining their "clutch" factor?).
     
    VManis and Pauly like this.
  3. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    1,848
    1,796
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki on Ryan Fitzpatrick. "The greatest teammate I’ve played with. The thing that makes him special is he makes the guys around him better players. If I could play with him for the next 15 years I would. He’s the man."
     
    Fishhead, mlb1399, resnor and 2 others like this.
  4. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    7,080
    9,253
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Yesterday he was fantastic...and he was fantastic in week 17 last year as well. On the average day, Fitz is an average NFL quarterback with some high and low points. The difference is that his ceiling is still huge and it has shown throughout this season...even in what you refer to as "bad games".

    Our receivers just aren't creating separation and Fitz literally has to be pin-point accurate on every single throw to avoid the pick. Do you realize how near-impossible it is to consistently complete 10-20 yard passes to guys who AREN'T OPEN? He's literally doing that 25+ times per game and making it look easy. I could really care less what his QB rating says because of the circumstances...he's leading everyone on that field and dealing with their learning curves without a single complaint.

    Fitzpatrick is the best quarterback for this team- that was true all last year and it's still true today. Maybe that changes in time but you're one of the few complaining about him at all. His dedication and leadership are simply incredible....it's the cog that's making this entire offense work at the moment.

    Now flip that around...say we start Tua tomorrow. His protection is spotty and he's not perfect on his reads (yet). So he's scrambling and what does he see- a bunch of receivers that aren't open. Maybe he can work the magic on throw after throw like Fitz...he clearly has the better arm and better touch. But eventually he's going to get clobbered like Fitz has dozens of times this season. Maybe he pops right back to his feet....or maybe his career is over. It makes no sense to put him out there when the rest of the offense is playing at 70-80% capacity due to the learning curves involved with starting so many young guys.

    Tua will start when the line is playing lights out, when the receivers are running proper routes and when the RB's are seeing consistent holes. Even though we just won a blowout against a pretty good team, we don't have any of those things CONSISTENTLY yet. Maybe we're there in 2-3 weeks...maybe not. But there's simply zero reason to put him in there and have him fail because the rest of the team isn't up to speed.

    And you know how I know I'm right? We just saw that movie for 7 years straight under Ryan Tannehill. We completely set him up to fail and guess what....he failed. Yet in retrospect, he was probably the best player on the field at any given time. The goal is to STOP DOING THAT and actually give a young talent at QB a fair chance.
     
    M1NDCRlME, Hooligan and resnor like this.
  5. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    2,781
    2,206
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    I dont necessarily disagree, at least not strongly or with a lot, but I dont think this really answers the question why we are keeping our starter out in garbage time. If protecting Tua is that important youd think we would protect Fitz too because one hit and Tua is in the rest of the year.

    Again I dont think his not playing yet means anything despite the fact I dont particularly love Tua, but I really do question the logic of our staff in that regard.
     
  6. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

    1,183
    460
    83
    Mar 13, 2012
    Ok. Let's say that we finish 6-10 this year and next year we're not any better. Same trash receivers, same trash O-line. Do you hide tua on the sidelines again until we get pro bowl receivers and O-line? When does it end? If they are so worried about him being so fragile, then maybe they should have drafted Herbert instead.
     
  7. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    9,268
    7,685
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    Look I’m telling you, when we’re mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, you’re going to see Tagovailoa play. There will be no pressure to “win”, only to see what he’s grasped and what he needs work on.

    In the meantime, Flores is going to play the players that give us the best opportunity to win.
     
  8. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

    1,183
    460
    83
    Mar 13, 2012
    I guess we'll see. I have my doubts
     
  9. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    12,849
    7,979
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    "Asked why he didn’t insert Tagovailoa late in the game with the score lopsided, Flores kidded that it would have made “some people happy” but suggested it would have been pointless because he merely would have handed off. Flores also cited quarterback injuries around the league.

    “He will be ready to go when his number is called,” Flores."

    https://amp.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article246324000.html
     
  10. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

    1,183
    460
    83
    Mar 13, 2012
    Again, he could have called pass plays. He's making excuses and hiding Tua
     
  11. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

    2,014
    1,134
    113
    Mar 6, 2010
    OL is playing pretty decent this year and is still very young. What makes you think they won’t improve next year?
     
  12. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

    1,183
    460
    83
    Mar 13, 2012
    What if they don't? Should tua still sit?
     
  13. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

    2,014
    1,134
    113
    Mar 6, 2010
    Honestly we spent a #5 pick on Tua. He’s going to get his chance when the coaches are ready.

    Im more curious why you think our OL that averages around 25 won’t get better? Also curious why you don’t think our receivers will get better after seeing Preston, Parker and Gesicki make major strides?
     
  14. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

    1,183
    460
    83
    Mar 13, 2012
    I'm just throwing out hypotheticals to figure out when people think the perfect situation for tua to play will be. Clearly he's not ready yet, so I'm just trying get an idea of when he will be. Btw, do you see how good Herbert looks tonight?
     
  15. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,307
    3,279
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    There’s a fair bit of evidence that ESPN don’t understand their code. The issue about the highest QBR rated game in history, and how they “resolved” it tells me that even they can’t explain it to themselves.
     
    resnor and cbrad like this.
  16. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    9,268
    7,685
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    Are you making the argument the Miami Dolphins are as good of a TEAM as the LA Chargers?
     
  17. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

    1,183
    460
    83
    Mar 13, 2012
    I'd say they are equal but if you go by records, Miami is the better team. What does that have to do with Herbert looking good?
     
  18. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    7,059
    2,585
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Lakeland, FL
    Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson started as rookies from day one and doesn't seem to have hurt their careers.
     
  19. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

    1,640
    813
    113
    Nov 11, 2016
    Fitz is not the reason the dolphins lost three games. The offense has been puting up plenty of points. The passing game has been firing on all cylinders. Putting Tua in is not going to improve our defense or running game which are the real reasons we lost those games.
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    8,067
    9,545
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    That kind of argument leads nowhere because: 1) we don't know whether great QB's that did NOT start immediately (e.g., Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Montana, Mahomes, etc.) would have still ended up great had they started from day one, and 2) we don't know whether QB's that DID start immediately and busted would have done better had they sat and waited (though with David Carr there's a really good argument to be made).

    It's an unknowable. So I don't think there's evidence to suggest WHEN it's best to start Tua. We just know there are many great QB's that did not start immediately, meaning that Tua not starting at this point says nothing about how he'll end up.
     
    Hooligan, KeyFin and Pauly like this.
  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    3,575
    1,083
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    The Chargers are currently 1-4 and nothing special. In fact the Dolphins have performed better this year:

    2020.png

    And that includes tonight's game.
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    8,067
    9,545
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Something was wrong with the play calling by the Chargers today. In the 3rd quarter they acted like it was the 4th quarter, and in the 4th it was like Italian football (soccer): let's protect the lead when the game is tied!!

    Herbert is good (still a bit young and makes some errors but he'll be a good one it seems) and they have components of a good defense, but somehow it's not coming together. Coaching, and specifically play calling, seems suspect IMO.
     
  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    3,575
    1,083
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    That would be the only remaining question, however, as we've determined that QBR is nothing more than clutch-weighted EPA.

    On the ESPN website it indicates that "low leverage plays" are "down-weighted according to ESPN's win probability model." They're simply using some cutoff in terms of win probability to down-weight "garbage time" performance.

    If you look here:

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/schedAdjQBR/dir/desc

    ...you'll see that Fitzpatrick is getting credit for EPA with regard to runs, penalties, and sacks in a manner that -- taken together -- perhaps distinguishes him favorably from other QBs. That probably explains the QBR elevation from average in terms of the comparison with traditional passer rating, which incorporates none of those variables.
     
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    3,575
    1,083
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    What, you mean the "2019 Tennessee Titans formula"? :chuckle:
     
  25. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    8,067
    9,545
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    It's a lot more than that. If all you did was clutch-weight EPA with some win probability cut-off that's probably less than 10 lines of code with 2 lookup tables, one for EPA and one for win probability. ESPN's QBR spans 10,000+ lines of code!!

    What the hell they are doing there is anyone's guess, and Pauly's right that with something that complex the programmer himself doesn't know how things will turn out (they know what they put in, but they don't know what comes out).

    Also, according to wiki they consider how far a pass travels in the air as well as whether the QB was under pressure or not, which already is more than you're talking about. And that's just what people can glean from the outside.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating
     
  26. Triggercut

    Triggercut Well-Known Member

    713
    383
    63
    Aug 12, 2011
    At this point the "play Tua now" crowd are just the nagging of trolls. Most of you have fed them with your best food, but they cry for more. Stop feeding them.
     
    Hooligan likes this.
  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    7,080
    9,253
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I didn't say the receivers or the line was trash....I said they're not doing great today. Big difference. And if you don't trust the coach today, then the biggest problem isn't Tua anyway; that means we're doomed for another rebuild and a front office/coaching change no matter what.
     
  28. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

    1,789
    664
    113
    Oct 31, 2008
    palm beach county fl
    [QUOcauseTE="The_Dark_Knight, post: 3304872, member: 74"]Why did Aaron Rodgers sit on the bench for 3 years?[/QUOTE]
    Because Brett Favre wouldn't leave.
     
  29. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

    1,183
    460
    83
    Mar 13, 2012
    I see. So people who would like to see the QB that their team invested a top 5 pick on actually play to see what they have in him, are trolls. Got it. What a bunch of idiots we are. Who in their right mind would be interested in seeing him play? Did you see Justin Herbert last night? Did you see him throw 4 td's? He looks really good. Not as good as Tua looks holding a clip board though.
     
  30. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

    20,209
    24,510
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    NC
    Just a sportsmanship rule about not throwing when you're destroying the other team.
     
    Hooligan and Dan S like this.
  31. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

    20,209
    24,510
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    NC
    Mahomes looked awful holding a clipboard his rookie season too. Terrible pick by the Chiefs.
     
  32. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    12,849
    7,979
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    You're close to trolling not because you want to see the QB play but because you sound like a broken record. No matter how people try to interact with your points all you want to do is repeat the points you're convinced of - that the only possible reasons Tua isn't playing are because he's bad or fragile. You absolutely refuse to entertain any other perspective. Then you go on to say that Flores is engaged in some sort of coverup of Tua whom he knows is broken or horrible, and as proof you claim the fact that Flores isn't engaging Tua in a passing attack at the end of a game (again refusing to acknowledge any other possible reasons why he might not do that).

    At this point there's basically no reason, at all, to talk with you on this subject, because all anyone is getting from you is:
    Tua is a bust.
    Flores is covering it up.
    You love Justin Herbert.

    We've got it. You don't need to keep repeating it. Either engage with people in proper conversation and consider their points, or else don't be surprised if people do treat you like a troll and ignore you.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2020
    Dan S likes this.
  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    3,575
    1,083
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    If you hover your cursor over the column headers on this page:

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/schedAdjQBR/dir/desc

    ...you'll see they've defined all of the ingredients of QBR, and there is nothing there about air yards or QB pressures. The remaining unknowns are the WP level at which performance is down-weighted, as well as the "defensive adjustment." However, "QBR raw" is so similar to QBR that the defensive adjustment that accounts for the difference between the two must be minimal.
     
  34. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

    1,183
    460
    83
    Mar 13, 2012
    Alex Smith took the Chiefs to the playoffs the year before and was playing well. Why would you take him out? We won 5 games last year and may win 7 this year if we're lucky. What are you gaining by playing fitz over your first round QB?
     
  35. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

    1,183
    460
    83
    Mar 13, 2012
    I am engaging but since you don't agree with what I'm saying, it's not proper conversion I guess. And yes, i think tua will be a bust and wanted Herbert. Those are my opinions. It seems like a lot of people on here only want to hear opinions from people who think like they do. I do consider everyone's points but somehow, my points make me a troll. I guess we'll see who was right as the season progresses
     
  36. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    12,849
    7,979
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    Why would you take him out? Because you desperately need to see what you have in your new QB. How could the Chiefs possibly develop him without giving him game time, especially at the end of games? How could they know what they had? Why would they wait until Week 17, after they had clinched a playoff spot? In Week 16 they were up over the Dolphins 20-10 and then 26-10. Why not put him in and see what you've got?
    Horrible coaching.
     
  37. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    12,849
    7,979
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    Nope. See. You missed the point again.. It's not about who you like or who you don't like. This thread is about why Tua might not be starting. You simply repeat the only two possibilities you see and you refuse to consider anything else. That's the point.

    How about this - how do you know you're right that it's only one of those two options? How do you know that it isn't one of the other reasons?
     
  38. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

    1,183
    460
    83
    Mar 13, 2012
    because, we ARE NOT making the playoffs this year. You gain nothing by playing fitz. Get Tua some experience so that in year 3 of Flores' rebuild, we don't have an inexperienced QB running things
     
  39. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

    1,183
    460
    83
    Mar 13, 2012
    Those are two options I believe. You don't believe them. You believe it's other reasons. How do you know that I'm not spot on?
     
  40. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    12,849
    7,979
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    This is exactly why you look like you're trolling. Even when the Chiefs had games locked up, they still didn't play Mahomes. That runs right against what you've said about using garbage time to get some reps in and how important it is. Either a team is damaging their development of a QB by sitting them a year, or they're not. Apparently the Chiefs weren't doing that. They didn't seem to think they were putting in an inexperienced QB to run things when they hadn't given him time on the field. Playoffs or not, if it's such a big deal to have an inexperienced QB step in then surely the Chiefs should have waited another year before starting Mahomes and gradually eased in him? Why turn the keys over to him when you don't know what you've got and you haven't developed him?

    In addition, you simply assume that putting a rookie QB into any situation will give you a solid evaluation of him. You've failed to make any reference to the points about the state of the Dolphins and their somewhat unique situation. The Dolphins aren't just bringing in one or two new pieces, they've overhauled about half of the entire roster in two successive years. That's a very different situation than bringing a rookie QB into a stable situation, even if it is a bad one.

    Lastly, I asked a simple question and you refused to answer it - again, this is getting very close to trolling. The question is not how do I know you're not right - I don't know. You might be. The point is that you assert that you most definitely are right and everyone else is wrong - so back at you - how do you know that you are right? How do you know that another options isn't possible?
     

Share This Page