1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Which team winds up with the #1 overall draft pick?

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by padre31, Nov 4, 2009.

  1. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Well, more or less halfway through the season, which team will pick 1st this coming April?

    The Bucs are 0-7 and have to be the front runner, Rookie HC who did not have the team practice during the Bye, and now a rookie Qb will start in Josh Freeman

    Cleveland Browns-1-6 GM was just escorted out of the building by the local police, as an aside it would have been good if Dolphins fans could have had Spillman and Wanny escorted out of Davie as well, but alas..

    Putrid offense, mini player revolt, best Lb just was put on IR.

    St Louis Rams-1-6 a team devoid of talent across the board, they just won their first game out of their last 17, must be considered a dark horse for the #1

    Detroit Lions-1-6 win this year, undaunted, they are embarking on a new losing streak, back to back #1's overall are not unheard of in the NFL.

    KC Chiefs-1-6 probably the "best" of the worst teams, they are at least competitive, they need a running back and Oline help.

    Tennessee Titans 1-6...Jeff Fisher is too good of a coach to only have one win for the entire season, he (imho) will more than likely be gone after this season, but still 2-14 or 3-13 is just to good to pick #1 overall this Cycle.
     
  2. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

    29,745
    11,512
    0
    Nov 23, 2007
    After being forced to watch some of the Raiders this last weekend, I think they could be there as well.
    Alice has COMPLETEY blown very high picks in Russell (I think he has about 18 int's and 3 Td's or something to that affect) and of course McFadden, whom I predicted wouldn't make it 4 years in the league, and I stick with that.
    Seymour along with Asomougha makes a total of 2 worthwhile players on defense.
    These guys are really really bad.
     
  3. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

    72,658
    35,312
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Charlotte NC
    edit: rams
     
  4. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

    21,755
    3,475
    113
    Jan 5, 2008
    Oviedo FL
    TB gets my vote. They just don't have a clue of a coaching staff and no QB.
     
  5. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    FWIW, this is a year that features some really bad teams, normally the Raiders would be say 3-1 favorites to achieve the #1 overall, but those two wins are just enough to knock them behind the Browns, Bucs and Rams.

    They could go 2-14 and pick #5 in this Draft, the Rams, Browns, Bucs and Lions are that bad this season, heck there is an outside shot 2-14 picks #6 this year if KC stays at one win.
     
  6. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Yeah, I hate to dump on the Rookie HC, but that team has more talent than he is showing it does, even with J Johnson at Qb.

    Josh Freeman is being setup to fail imho.
     
    gunn34 likes this.
  7. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

    22,623
    50,064
    113
    Nov 30, 2007
    Tampa and they draft Suh 1st overall.
     
  8. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

    29,745
    11,512
    0
    Nov 23, 2007
    If so, that's actually not a bad overall #1. I think Suh, much like Long was for us, is the safe pick at #1.
     
  9. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    As a sort of modern Lee roy Selmon?

    I could see it "but" a NT #1 overall?

    They switched to the 3-4 didn't they?
     
  10. Bjorn

    Bjorn Season Ticket Holder

    1,685
    1,268
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Maine
    He would be Warren Sapp version 2.0. I think Suh can play in any scheme. He's good. Hell hes quick enough too, I would say he could be an end in the 3-4.
     
  11. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    We'll see. I think the Rams have the best chance of getting the first pick and if that's the case they're going for a QB.
     
  12. alen1

    alen1 New Member

    52,811
    20,365
    0
    Dec 16, 2007
    Nope, they're still running 4-3. A nose tackle first overall usually isn't the smartest thing but Suh's a very safe prospect and is damn good of a player. I'd take him and if I was them, I'd definitely take them considering how bad against the run they are this year.
     
  13. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

    22,623
    50,064
    113
    Nov 30, 2007
    If the Rams pick number one, who's the QB? I don't necessarily see a #1 overall pick at QB. Suh is safe, legitimises that DL and gives the Bucs a defensive line stud that allows Ruud to make plays. Suh is the best player in the draft bar none.
     
    Stringer Bell likes this.
  14. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

    22,623
    50,064
    113
    Nov 30, 2007
    I don't see Bradford as the number one, not coming off the injury and not being able to work out much if at all pre-draft. Locker is a risk at 1. McCoy? Could be, but size will be an issue in the great shake up. I don't see Clausen as a number one and whilst I see Christian Ponder as a number 1 overall pick, I see that in 2011 and not 2010.
     
  15. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

    29,745
    11,512
    0
    Nov 23, 2007
    I think McCoy may end up being a pretty good QB, but not an absolute STUD.
    I actually think more and more that Bradford might stay at OU another year, or at least that is much of what I am hearing in these parts :up:
     
  16. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

    53,333
    23,006
    0
    Dec 7, 2007
    whose suh? are you guys abbreviating his name? lol
     
  17. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Do you know what the process is for determining the #1 overall if both teams are 1-15?

    As for the Bucs, a Qb is not in the cards, maybe the Rams, the hype machine will pump up someone, maybe Claussen as ND Qb's do tend to be overrated coming into the draft.
     
  18. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    Looking at the schedule does anyone see Tampa beating any of these teams? Anything could happen but I don't see any wins yet
     
  19. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

    22,623
    50,064
    113
    Nov 30, 2007
    He's already declared that he's leaving OU. He won't risk another injury by staying.
     
  20. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

    22,623
    50,064
    113
    Nov 30, 2007
    Ndamukong Suh, the Nebraska DT/DE
     
    unluckyluciano likes this.
  21. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    A good point, and it also goes to a larger problem of the lack of clear blue chip prospects emerging so far in this draft, Suh is a "can't miss" type of player, but behind him?

    Not so much, but there is a plethora of great Rb prospects, Dwyer, Spiller, Royster, Best, Devine, to me those guys will all play on Sundays and are first round type of runners.

    It appears that the really crappy teams, Bucs, Browns, Lions, Rams have needs that there are not obvious choices to fill them at this point in the draft process.

    Oddly enough though, afaik, this year's LT class is not on par with the last three Draft's Tackle classes:

    http://www.nfldraftbible.com/All-Access-Football/2010_nfl_draft_top_10_offensive_tackles.html

    Ulatoski is #8 Selvish Capers is #3 and Ciron Black is #2?

    That is a thin class of LT prospects.
     
  22. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Not seeing it jd, Raheem Morris is in the deep end of the pool and the floaties are slowly deflating, sort of expect a housecleaning after the season.

    FWIW, the Bucs do have some talent, but it would take a Vet NFL HC to wring any wins out of that roster, and Morris may be just too young and to inexperienced to get it done.

    The Bucs situation reminds me alot of ours in 2007.
     
    jetssuck likes this.
  23. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

    22,623
    50,064
    113
    Nov 30, 2007
    I think McCoy is the next best player in the draft. Eric Berry is a once in a decade type. Bryan Bulaga might end up as the number one rated OT. I don't think there is great early value.
     
  24. alen1

    alen1 New Member

    52,811
    20,365
    0
    Dec 16, 2007
    I'm still mixed on the RB class but I think the overall OT class isn't too bad. I really like Russell Okung. He's very good IMO. Ulatoski is a terrible LT IMO. Trent Williams is a good RT. Selvish Capers has a lot of potential. Black's very strong. I've seen him throw around ends like rag dolls. Charles Brown of USC is rising up boards but admittedly, I haven't seen a lot of him, though I've got about four tapes on him. As Boom mentioned, Brian Bulaga of Iowa is a good player as well as Anthony Davis of Rutgers.
     
  25. alen1

    alen1 New Member

    52,811
    20,365
    0
    Dec 16, 2007
    Not sold yet on Anthony Davis? I like Davis. I just worry about his strength.
     
  26. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

    29,745
    11,512
    0
    Nov 23, 2007
    Actually the two kids in OK, Okung and Williams both look pretty solid, and the Brown kid out of USC. But then a good drop-off imo.

    I would say we secured our Left Tackle, DE's, and CB's at very very good time.
    The kid I'm not seeing on any radars lately is Eric Berry?
     
  27. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    The thing of it is, the last 3 drafts were full of "can't miss" Left Tackle prospects, Thomas, Long, Clady, Otah, Justin Smith, all in all the last 3 drafts featured 14 Offensive tackles taken in the first round, or about 5 a year on average, this year it is doubtful 5 are taken in round 1.

    But the bad teams would not be in the market for a LT.
     
  28. TiP54

    TiP54 Bad Reputation

    10,688
    4,955
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Live from the Internet.
    Why not?
    We were.
     
  29. alen1

    alen1 New Member

    52,811
    20,365
    0
    Dec 16, 2007
    Here are the OT's taken in the first round of each draft since 2003.

    2009 - 4
    2008 - 8
    2007 - 3
    2006 - 1
    2005 - 2
    2004 - 3 *
    2003 - 3

    * Shawn Andrews has been playing mostly OG.

    This year, you could see four to five OT's going in the first round (Bulaga, Davis, Okung, Williams, Brown and if Capers shows enough, he could go in the first though I doubt it). Other than 2008, that would be the most since 03. Teams that may need an OT are the Lions, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Bills, Packers, Raiders, and maybe Chiefs depending on how they feel about Branden Albert. IMO, he should be playing OG. That's six teams, potentially seven.
     
  30. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Alen, the market might be saturated with 24 Tackles taken in the last 7 years, the NFL only needs 64 Tackles and 32 LT's and not every team starts a #1 pick at LT.

    Don't think it will play out like that this draft, too many skill position prospects this time around, Seahawks Bills and maybe the Raiders, but unless the Raiders are just stupid, these LT's are not really top 7 type picks imho.
     
  31. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Because:

    Titans: Roos at LT
    Browns: Joe Thomas
    Tampa: Donald Penn
    Chiefs: Brandon Albert
    Rams: Justin Smith (playing RT but he is a LT)

    Basically the really bad teams have good LT's or players they have invested heavily in.
     
  32. alen1

    alen1 New Member

    52,811
    20,365
    0
    Dec 16, 2007
    I didn't say they would all take one, I simply said they are possibilities of taking an OT and I was debating your point of multiple OT's getting drafted in the first. It doesn't have to be five; it hasn't been more than five since 2008. If three go, that's fine.

    As for them being top seven picks, I think Okung is worthy of it. The others are twelve and on IMO. It doesn't have to be several OT's in the first fifteen picks. If one goes every eight picks, that's fine.
     
  33. alen1

    alen1 New Member

    52,811
    20,365
    0
    Dec 16, 2007
    Jason Smith, bro. :up:

    Penn is terrible. Albert is best fit at OG but we don't know what they are going to do. Again, it doesn't have to be top five or seven.
     
    RalphX19X likes this.
  34. RalphX19X

    RalphX19X >:)

    563
    135
    43
    Nov 23, 2007
    Miami
    Hopefully the Chiefs move Albert back inside and draft a LT.
     
  35. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

    29,745
    11,512
    0
    Nov 23, 2007
    I agree with Padre that we more than likely will only see 1 Tackle go top 10.
    I actually think we might see as many as.....8-10 defensive players go top 15.
     
  36. RalphX19X

    RalphX19X >:)

    563
    135
    43
    Nov 23, 2007
    Miami
    Also Bruce Campbell from Maryland is very athletic. Haven't seen alot of him though.
     
  37. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Actually Penn has graded out fairly well per PFF:

    http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_...e=r&runpass=&teamid=-1&numsnaps=25&numgames=1

    He has given up 3 sacks, but that is the same number of sacks as Big Jake has surrendered so far.

    And interestingly enough the Jags have benched Eugene Monroe in favor of Tre Thomas..
     
  38. alen1

    alen1 New Member

    52,811
    20,365
    0
    Dec 16, 2007
    Maryland's Gabe Carimi is a nice player. I know the Maryland coaches are doing everything they can to keep him away from NFL Scouts.
     
  39. alen1

    alen1 New Member

    52,811
    20,365
    0
    Dec 16, 2007
    http://hosted.stats.com/fb/playerstats.asp?id=8119&team=27

    I don't believe in that site, to be honest, but to each their own. I go with the one above. He's given up four sacks according to that and nineteen in three years.
     
  40. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    My "fuzzy math" has calculated that there has been a large percentage of non skill position players taken over the last couple of seasons, this year imho is the year of the Reach, especially on Offensive Skill players, teams are looking for athletes who can play football this Draft.

    The trend is for more offensive production, there will be 5 Qb's who throw for more than 4,000 yds this season, that means skill positions on offense (thanks to the "new" pass interference rules) and a premium on defensive players who are ballhawks at S and who can rush the passer.

    Suh is one of those types of players and would be a great #1 to #3 pick, after that, things get murky, cover corners and ballhawking Safeties are not really featured in this draft.

    KC for their problems on the Oline needs to upgrade their entire defense, their players were designed for a completely different system, they could take a Mays or a Berry and it would make perfect sense for them to do so.
     

Share This Page