I say mid 80's, I think in this offense he will be able to make a lot of high percentage throws and get the ball out of his hands quickly. But he will have his fair share of rookie mistakes.
I put him in the 71-80 bucket. My first thought was around 85, but I think people (myself included) tend to overvalue rookie QBs. So I went back and looked at the last 10 years of stats for rookie QBs and it turns out the average passer rating for a rookie QB over that span is just over 71. I can see a slightly better than average statistical season for him due to: 1. Knowledge of the system (+) 2. Being a good physical prospect (+) 3. Mediocre receiving options (-) Incidentally, only 1 rookie QB in that time period has gone 91 or over for the season - Roethlisberger in 2004 (98.1). Only 2 have gone 81 and over (Ryan, Newton).
Not many rookie QB are over 80. I think he'll fall in the 70s somewhere, mainly because his WRs are not a strong group, other than Bess.
Yeah that's true he does have no one to throw to, his checks to Bush will be his security blanket. I think Dalton was at about 80 last season but he had one of the future FREAKS of the NFL to chuck it to. Okay time for me to finally pass out.
With an awful group of WR's and a horrendous right side of the line, that's going to really hurt him. On the plus side he's going into an offense he already knows. Then again on the negative side, he's inexperienced as a QB. He's going to make a lot of mistakes as rookie QB's are prone to do, especially one with so little college experience. He's going to turn the ball over a lot. With the smallest hands of any QB in the combine, he's fumble prone, and if the right side of the line is the turnstile I imagine it to be, that won't bode well. God forbid if Jake Long gets hurt again. He's also prone to throwing INT's under pressure, and had troubles with his decision making last season, and locking on to WR's. My guess would be somewhere in the 70's which is typical for rookie QB's.
I'm going to go in the 80s. Specifically 80 to 85. We don't have a strong group of wide receivers, so I expect him to rely on Fasano and Clay a lot. I think he will find success there. I also think he will have success throwing to Bess and Hartline. Philbin/Sherman should do well game planning for Tannehill, too.
For those interested, here's the numbers going back to 2003. [TABLE="class: tblGenFixed"] [TR] [TD="class: s0"]Player[/TD] [TD="class: s1"]Year[/TD] [TD="class: s1"]Rating[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Roethlisberger[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2004[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]98.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Ryan[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2008[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]87.7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Newton[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2011[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]84.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Dalton[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2011[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]80.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Flacco[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2008[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]80.3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Bradford[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2010[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]76.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Leinart[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2006[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]74[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Leftwich[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2003[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]73[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Edwards[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2007[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]70.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Ponder[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2011[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]70.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Young[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2006[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]66.7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Gradkowski[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2006[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]65.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Gabbert[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2011[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]65.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Sanchez[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2009[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]63[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Boller[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2003[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]62.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Stafford[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2009[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]61[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Freeman[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2009[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]59.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Orton[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2005[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]59.7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: s2"]Clausen[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]2010[/TD] [TD="class: s3"]58.4[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I'm sticking with my 71-80 prediction. While I think he's going to be good, it's probably asking too much to put up an 81+ season with limited weapons. The 3 guys in that 81+ bracket: Newton -> Steve Smith Ryan -> Roddy White Roethlisberger -> Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress.
I always expect the best this time of year. I think the offense he is in bumps his rating up. I see a lot of high % checkdowns, and from the preseason I don't see a lot of INTs. That could very well change as the D's get more complex, but the speed of the O's pace will limit that some what. We don't have a superstar WR and all of the positives that brings, but conversly we don't have someone that Tannehill needs to force the ball too either. I like our backs and TEs vs LBs, particularly our backs.
I really think the pass-catching ability of Javorskie Lane is a huge benefit for Tannehill's development this year, in that he'll help the running game with his blocking, which will help bring balance, but defenses won't be able to key on the run when he's in the game because of his pass-catching ability. Now if we can get Jonathan Martin to develop quickly and Anthony Fasano out into routes more often, that'll have the same effect. Both of those guys can help Tannehill tremendously IMO. You can give a "run" look and pass out of it. What we need are things that keep defenses from knowing Tannehill has to pass and throwing the kitchen sink at him. Balance on offense, good play on defense to keep the scoreboard under control, and players who can help the run game and the passing game on offense.
High 60's to low 70's. This isn't because I don't think Tannehill will eventually become a quality QB in the NFL. I actually have come around to the idea that he just might end up being a quality QB in the NFL. The low rating I gave him has more to do with the weak receiving corp and the fact Tannehill will probably be running for his life, behind the OL he has in front of him. I think if in the future Tannehill gets some quality receivers and a solid OL, he could become a consistent high 80's to mid 90's QB in regards to ratings.
50-60 : very concerned 60-70: concerned but really look at how much was his fault vs supporting cast 70-77: about what I'd expect given the OL and WRs, plus new Offense and HC for team 78-84: I'd be thrilled. Possible but he'd have to exceed expectations and carry the team at times... Which great ones can do. 85-96: unrealistic IMO. Pro Bowl talent if he does this with current teammates 97+ : We have a potential HoF QB if he comes in and posts that high a QBR as a rookie on a lackluster squad
It's important that fans have reasonable expectations of Tanehill, so feeling in the stands, press and eventually locker room isn't that he is 'disappointing' if he posts a 75 QBR (better than the majority of rookie QBs).
Thank you for looking that up, but unfortunately it won't be accurate b/c of how much the passing game currently benefits the offense, as we've seen the league wide QBR rise roughly 7 points the past decade IIRC. Considering Dalton's was 80.4, I could see Tannehill at least matching that. Perhaps in the 81-83 range.
My expectations are for Tannehill to have a decent 1st year. They'll be extremely conservative. The short passing game presents mostly high % throws and the tools are there to succeed with it. He's 1/2 a mile ahead of most rookie Qbs and appears to be savvy enough in the pocket to avoid trouble. As for QB Rating, anything over 78 and I'm ecstatic. Total QBR or whatever? Who gives a damn. I say we shoot for good pass pro. and a 60 % completion percentage, then build on that.
projecting the defensive production, based on the talent and production of the past...any rating above 81.5 would make this a playoff team. So..it is not likely. He gets one in the 70-80 range, and they overachieve and win 6-7 games. below 70....I'll call it 4-12.
