what needs to be done with this defense

I think we need to add a pass rusher first and foremost to compliment Wake. This will reap benefits for the entire defense. After that, I would say we need to improve at FS and add a #1 CB while moving Smith to the #2 position. Then, depth is really needed everywhere save the DT position.

 

If we're willing to part ways with Long, I think we can do some things this year. With that ~$10 MM in savings, I'd like to go after Byrd and Avril. Re-sign Hartline and trade Bess. Flip a 3rd or so for James Jones and draft whichever receivers and DB's the staff see necessary. I'd re-sign Starks, let McDaniel walk, and have he, Odrick, Randall, and Soliai rotating at DT while Avril, Wake, Shelby, and Vernon play DE. Then I'd be confident that my Madden franchise mode has gone this well so far.

 

I agree that the bookend to Cameron Wake is a must, #1 priority that needs to be seriously addressed. Wake has phenomenal talent that is not being used to its fullest because defense's can plan specifically to defend against him without a lot of thought to the other side. Its no longer adequate to draft someone who may develop into the player to fill the need because we are wasting the opportunity to make the very most of Cameron Wakes talent and abilities. With an Ogunleye type talent on the other side who does have to be accounted for on each and every play could make Wake the very best the Dolphin's have ever had at that position if he isn't already. The Dolphin's are letting Wake down and wasting this opportunity.
Next, I do realize corner backs and another safety are serious needs, and its just too bad that we still have overwhelming needs on offense or we could put more emphasis on the defense in this draft. We have needs across the board on both sides and now its just a matter to prioritize those needs when selecting.

 

I think #1 priority is figuring out what's going on with the corners. You've got a guy in Nolan Carroll that was in the dog house and then got hurt. You bought Richard Marshall for the price tag you give to a "good" nickel corner, he sucked and then got hurt for the year. Sean Smith is up and down like a #2 corner should be, and he's a free agent. Jimmy Wilson is not making many GMs jealous of our nickel corner position. R.J. Stanford is a street free agent and is playing like it.

I've been a big proponent of certain pass rushers in this draft and for sure I would like to add two if I could, but the top-most priorities on the team today have to be at WR and CB, and not necessarily in that order.

With Brian Hartline a free agent, the wide receiver position could be in line for a similar flush-and-reset as the corner position.

 

I'm not sure there is any type of inherent issue regarding takeaways here.

There is absolutely no correlation between INTs year-over-year. The correlation between INT% for teams between 2012 and 2011 is -0.006. Essentially, taking INTs from the other team isn't so much a skill, as it is based on chance.

Forcing fumbles has a very, very small correlation with itself YoY. The correlation between fumbles forced in 2011 and 2012 is 0.19. But keep in mind that recovering a fumble is essentially pure luck. So while you could probably get some small returns out of attempting to force more fumbles, the luck of recovering fumbles likely makes any serious type of devotion of resources to "players that cause fumbles" most likely an inefficient use of resources.

I think you certainly can improve the defense. But I don't think its wise to set out to improve "takeaways".

IMO the biggest priority defensively should be finding a DE. Not so much to replace Odrick, but as someone that can eventually replace/fill-in for Cameron Wake.

 

IMO an increased pass rush has 10 times more impact than adding any CB outside of a HOF level talent. I also think a play-making safety has far more impact than any CB we could add. Those are the two areas I would primarily look to address defensively. Fortunately, I think this draft is deep in pass rushers and that safeties like Elam and Thomas have a good chance of dropping to our 2nd round pick.

As for Smith, I would definitely keep him. He has had a good year in terms of preventing completions to his man. I think people ding him for the # of TDs he's given up, but I think that part of that blame should fall on the S. I think better deep support would have easily cut that TD number in half. I would look to add a mid-level FA CB and mid round picks over using any premium picks on a CB.

 

I agree with the correlations as I've tracked those in the past and reached a similar conclusion. But I do think you prioritize ball skills and play-makers on back 7 of your defense. I like the play-making ability of Dansby and Burnett. They haven't had the INTs, but they have made many big stops against both the run and pass to get our defense off the field. I think Reshad Jones has shown a knack for some big stops against the run. And I think Sean Smith is finally rounding out to a consistent enough CB with some ball skills especially in terms of PBUs. I think the odds of our takeaways increasing would be improved if we added another safety with a knack for play making particularly against the pass and if we added another pass rusher either at DE opposite Wake or at OLB to sub for Misi on pass downs.

 

2010 - Miami Dolphins = 29th in the league (19 Takeaways)
2011 - Miami Dolphins = 26th in the league (19 Takeaways)
2012 - Miami Dolphins = 29th in the league (12 Takeaways)

I refuse to chalk the above numbers up to pure luck or just coincidence. Meanwhile the Bears finish top 5 in that same 3 year span.

The Bears either built a defense keeping in mind taking away the ball, or they coach it really well.....or both. But Miami is clearly doing something wrong in this respect. May be a personnel thing. It may be a coaching thing. But the coach was changed and the numbers stayed consistent, so....take from that what you will

EDIT: Patriots finished top 3 every year from that same time span also. IMO, it's combination of coaching and personnel

 

What is the luck quotient in a given game or season.

 

Well certainly you're free to do what you please, but you're essentially ignoring the overwhelming majority of data available and focusing on takeaways as a whole, and only 2 teams.

 

Not sure exactly what you mean by "luck quotient". If I'm guessing correctly, there is no quotient?

 

I guess I find it counter-intuitive that because the game has gotten more difficult for corners, that means it's less important to have them. I view it as just the opposite. It's more important to find ones that can play. If it were easy to find good corners then that would lead to compression and less striation. With it being harder to play, there's more striation...more impact.

 

Patriots ranked 3, 2, 3 in the same time span
Giants ranked 1, 8, 3 in the same time span

I'm not sure I'm ignoring anything. Sure, I believe there is some randomness to it. And we've been unlucky recovering fumbles this year.

But it's by no means completely random. There is a talent to it. A skill involved in creating turnovers. Or at least it's coachable. The numbers prove this.

 

What percent of a game's outcome is luck

In other words, turnovers (or their differential) are correlated to winning by some number. But the turnovers themselves are random. What other things are random and can you add them up to say what % of a games outcome is luck?

 

To be honest, I've found myself on both sides on that one.

The challenge for me is that there are 100+ CBs in the NFL that see regular time on the field. How valuable is each player along that spectrum? Is it preferable to have 3 CBs that are all among the top-60, or 1 that is top-10, 1 that is top-100, and one that not in the top-100? I don't have an opinion either way, but it certainly is an intriguing proposition to me.

 

Prove what exactly? The skill level of creating turnovers can easily be quantified.

 

It's a small part of a skillset imo that can be identified..

For example..Cam Wake...Jarvis Jones..

Cam wake is a great payer, but he doesn't have the instinctive move with his right arm that dislodges the ball on impact..

If you watch Jarvis Jones, you will see an instinctive move at impact where the right arm and hand is always attacking the football..he's very good at striking the Qb while his right hand is stripping the ball, it's an instinctual move..

It's the one weakness I see in the krackens game.

Then there are ways to teach...if you watch Charles Tillmans turnovers, I would say at least 75 % of them come from this man consciously punching the football with his right hand like a boxer...I've seen his teammates emulate the move..

Better athletes can recover fumbles better.

 

I agree with his intellectually but it does seem like we are long, long overdue for a season when luck is on our side and we do get the turnovers. I agree the lack of fumble recoveries is pure luck/chance. The lack of interceptions, on the other hand, is at least partly due to lack fo ball skills and bad hands among our DBs/LBs. Most DBs don't have great hands and finding the ball is hard for a DB, so the Dolphins aren't alone there, but I don't think it is pure chance. I do that seriously prioritizing good hands in DB prospects is probably not a great idea, as it will cause us to overlook very good players and the payoff for those good hands is likely to be pretty small.

 

The numbers prove that Takeaways/Turnovers are not completely random. Certain teams consistently take the ball away more than other teams.

 

Actually a great series from Brian Burke on this. You can find all the parts here, here, here, and here.

Essentially his conclusion is that ~52% of all outcomes are luck.

 

I certainly don't have a quantitative answer, but I think it is a lot more than most people think, especially when you factor in penalties (which ones are seen/called and which aren't), ball spots, unforced errors by the other team (dropped passes, botched snaps, etc.), etc.

 

I would have to see more evidence, specifically on a per-play basis, and broken down by turnover type. I believe the numbers you're looking at are per-game, which can be misleading IMO.

 

R.Jones is proving to be a baller.

that is all.

 

I was looking at per season Turnover numbers: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2012/opp.htm#team_stats::none (sort by TO)

You see a lot of the same teams around the same areas on a year by year basis, which make it too hard to ignore, IMO

 

In some respects, having 1 great corner is like having half a condom. On the other hand, it is pretty helpful against those teams that have a clear-cut favorite or No. 1 receiver, as those teams are likely to continue to try to force the ball to him regardless fo the corner who is covering him. If the 1 great CB is one who consistently gets interceptions (and those guys are pretty rare), then I think that's probably best as long as the other guys aren't terrible.

 

And if that half a condom is Sean Smith, then it's a used one, too.

 

it is an interesting debate, I tend to side with the idea that if the rules get harder for corners, you need better ones, more athletic ones, to make up that space being taken away.

 

I think the defense is very good. I think we can make it elite in the upcoming draft. With their first three pics go BPA of the safety, corner, and DE positions. Something like Werner, Elam, and Rhodes and I'll most likely blow a load.

 

I just don't believe it's realistic to think you'll find 5 guys that can do that and fit under the salary cap. So there will always be holes at CB which can be exploited. Even if you could there will always be completions that even the great CBs can't stop. Yo can try fill the team with Champ Baileys and still have days when those guys are torched. What you can have is sound tackling CBs and find play makers at S and pass rusher that will create stops and takeaways that will end drives and get your defense off the field. I think that if we drafted the top two CBs in this draft and resigned Smith that this off-season everyone would be crowing about how good our defense will be, but that next year we'd still struggle to stop teams in the crunch. No matter how good the CBs, they will get beaten if the QB has all day to throw and they will still get beaten deep (or called for PI) more than half of the time without the S that can make the play over the top.

 

Defensive end corner and mlb.

 

It is my opinon that it is just as good to increase a strength as it is to fix weaknesses. A pass rushing defensive end could go a long way for the defense.

 

I think the fact our offense generally puts zero pressure on the opposing team's offense to score has something to do with it. I mean team's have to throw against us, because we stop the run, but they don't need to become unbalanced either. We got a lot of pressure on Henne as we started to widen our lead because we could just pin our ears and go after him. That's typically never the case.

I think it really starts with having some talent on the back end. We've been extraordinarily unlucky with recovering fumbles this year, I think. I thought I saw a stat somewhere that was a little shocking about that number. So, that will change. But again, there have been plays to be made there and we just haven't had guys with the ability to make those plays. I mean RJ Stanford had an easy pick on the nullified Blackmon penalty but had such incredibly poor footwork and jumped so early he bombed it.

 

I personally think our defense is good enough for now. We need to improve the offense at OL and WR. I think our secondary will be improved next year just by keeping our current corners and moving R. Marshall to the other safety spot.

That's not to say I don't think it would be nice to have more playmakers, just that right now, priority should be offense.

 

Interesting, and I'm sure luck does play a part more than one might think. But I believe a team's mental approach to a game plays more into it than what is theorized to be luck. I'd like to see a further breakdown to see what percentage of games attributed to luck may have actually been due to good fortune and which ones were due to a favored team just not showing up to play that day, although measuring the level of mental engagement is not something easily quantified. But I'd have a hard time believing a result such as an inferior Titans team beating a favored Dolphins team 37-3 being more attributable to luck than it is mental unless one considers the Titans lucky for catching Miami at the right time (or the wrong frame of mind).

 

I think we'd be best served moving Marshall back to safety, picking up a fresh corner, and getting some sort of pass rush other than Koa Misi.

 

There are a decent amount of pass rushers available in the draft. I would find it hard to pass one up.

 

While another pass rusher would be a nice addition. I don't see this helping the turnover situation much. The problem is that the players in the secondary just don't make plays on the ball. They basically sit back, let the receiver catch the ball, and try to make the tackle. There are no real play makers in the secondary or at the LB position. Even when this defense causes a fumble, they aren't aware enough to make the recovery.

I don't think I have ever seen a defense which is so inept in causing turnovers, by actually intercepting a pass or recovering a fumble when they have the opportunity to do so.

 

I agree that recovering fumbles is just pure luck, although some teams/players might be more adept at forcing them, thereby at least increasing the chance of recovering one a little.

Interceptions, on the other hand, are something that can often be attributable to skill, be it a ball hawking CB or Safety or a defensive line that can pressure the QB into making bad throws more than average.

 

Statistics are for losers. Anyone who thinks that the outcome of a football game is mainly luck, has no idea what they are talking about. It is funny how the better teams almost always have the most luck, because they are the teams which win the majority of their games.