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What do you think our plan is at QB?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by AGuyNamedAlex, Nov 4, 2019.

  1. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What is the plan? That's the million dollar question that none of us can answer isnt it? I'd hate to be the guy in the FO tasked with making it, but ultimately what I hope is that the GM, HC, & OC are all on the same page with 110% conviction that whoever they select is the guy. If they're wrong, they're wrong; it happens. It'll suck, no doubt, but for once I'd just like them all to be on the same damn page!

    What do I hope or think? I like Tua the more I watch him. That being said though, I'd be nervous about selecting him now given the injury history. My other concerns are the fact that Alabama a few weeks ago didn't seem to miss a beat without him. When he was hobbling out there against LSU though, that effort won me over a bit more. To play as well as he did, while clearly fighting through pain/injury was impressive to me. My biggest concern though is the team he plays on. Is he a product of his environment, or is he one of the reasons they're as good as they are? I think he helps, no doubt, but the amount of talent around him & the lack of talent he routinely faces is cause for concern. If you watch HIM though, I think you see the talent & fundamentals that make him a good prospect. My concern though would be what happens when he's not surrounded by elite players everywhere in comparison to the competition. It already feels as if his body is breaking down, so what happens when he's got a lesser OL & bigger, stronger, faster players on D hitting him and chasing him around? Afterall, this isn't a 1 or 2 year commitment were making here, this is hopefully 12+ years we're talking about. So, to me, that's important.

    I think Burrow has shown he deserves to be in the conversation right there with Tua. He looks like he's also got all the important traits you're looking for in a long term QB prospect as well. He's got alot of talent around him too, but I don't believe it to be anywhere near the level of that around Tua in Alabama. Fact of the matter to me is that the kid has simply shown that he's a winner & leader & has the skills and talent to go with it.

    That being said I really wouldn't be surprised if this team elects to not take either of them that early. I think that would be a mistake though, although that being said, I haven't really researched some of the "lesser" prospects than the premier two.

    I can see this team looking at filling as many holes as possible this year. Afterall, they created a large number of them. I can see them trading down with our first pick to accumulate more picks. I can see them drafting a QB later in round 1 with one of those additional picks. I can see them looking for another vet in the offseason, afterall, isn't it possible that Cam Newton is available? We have a plethora of picks next year as well, so it really wouldn't surprise me if they choose to fill holes this year. I'd prefer they take a QB early, but I can see them electing not to. Heck, with the draft capital we have this year and next, I'd take one this year & if it doesnt work out, take another next year. Keep doing it until you get it right.

    All that being said, I can also likely see this team making a trade to get Ryan Tannehill back if he continues to have success in Tennessee. :sidelol: I'm kidding of course... but then again... that would be a total Miami Dolphins thing to do. :lol:
     
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2019
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  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Personally, I feel Burrow is the best QB in the nation but there's no reason to talk about him at the moment since he'll be a Redskin or a Bengal. Neither of those teams will catch us in wins and neither will trade down.

    Hebert and Fromm are a step down from Burrow/Tua in my opinion, but I think Fromm may have a little more upside since he hasn't had that one unstoppable go-to receiver that the others we're talking about had this season. I wouldn't hate either of these picks if we got them in the middle of the 1st round, but I think it's a mistake to take either of them at 3, 4, or 5. If either of them are the goal, I'm hoping we trade back and not pick in the top 5 at all.

    Jalen Hurts...he's exciting since he's a Lamar Jackson clone that's done well with multiple college teams. His passing looks sharp this season and he's running all over defenses, but I don't think he's worthy of a 1st rounder. If we could get him in the 2nd or the 3rd then I'd be all-in on him as a prospect to be groomed for a couple of years...he is definitely not our 2020 starter though! So even if we took Hurts this team still needs a QB (unless we're starting Fitz or Rosen...which I'm fine with).

    Jordan Love might declare this year but I personally haven't seen him play extensively. He seems to have a pump/hitch in his release though (sort of like early Tannehill) and he's probably a mid-rounder at best. I'd pass entirely. There are a few other names that will be in the mix, but I don't think any of them rate better than Hurts/Tua/Burrow/Fromm/Hebert.

    That leaves us with Tua, who could definitely be had at #5 (and possibly even #35). With three 1st round picks, I think it's a no-brainer to grab him with Pitt's pick if he's still on the board in the mid/late teens...I'm not sure I get him at 5 though because even on the day of the draft, we still won't know if that hip is 100% NFL ready. The more I think about it though, I think it would be insane for him to return to college and try to prove he's the real deal on a sound hip- that could be a $15M+ mistake on his part.

    Here's one other thing to think about though- we have 3 first round picks while most other teams have 1. For us Tua is a gamble, for everyone with one pick it's an insane bet on the kid's future. New England has shown interest and I think we'd have to take him in the first no matter what...even if we're not sure he will ever play at a high level again. The last thing we want is for Tua to be Brady's eventual replacement a few seasons down the road so I'm drafting Tua in the 20's no matter what if he's still on the board....even if we take Hebert or someone else earlier.

    My gut reaction- we draft Tua in the teens and possibly Hurts in the 3rd round. Then we part ways with Rosen and plan on Fitzpatrick starting for 2020 and beyond...until Tua proves he's 100% or we release him. it's impossible to predict though because other teams could be all-in on Tua and willing to pay a top-10 pick for him....so we really just have to keep our ear to the ground and see what happens.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2019
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  3. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Fitzpatrick starting in 2020 and beyond? Some of you are just gluttons for punishment. Yikes.
     
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  4. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I think you guys are all wet when it comes to the plan.

    You are all basing plans on who is to be selected or if you are unsure of who is to be selected you throw your hands in the air and say we just have to wait and see.

    Well, the wait and see part is probably correct, but not for the reasons you have given.

    The plan should be obvious. We have "baited our hook" with a lot of draft picks and have a lot of cash to use if we don't like the fish that are available for our hooks. This probably means that our plans are not person specific as much as they are position of need specific.

    When our first selection comes up the FO is probably saying things like offense or defense, and in either of those cases it will probably be a lineman. If there is a positional player or a big fish (BPA) that can improve our Team more significantly than some extra picks could help us, then we take whoever that may be. If we can trade to get 3 or more picks for this pick we are likely to take it considering we have at least 2 more 1st round picks and enough cash to use in free agency to offset what we could not get with a known NFL commodity.

    It is the option of having a very large number of these pick options that is the plan.

    We will get the best of what we need the most, as our picks come up. To try and say it should be so & so or claim it must be position "A" is over focusing and impractical. The FO knows we need a lot of help in a lot of places and it will not all come in one player or even one draft. The fact that we are already set for a huge number of picks screams to me that the plan is to use our picks that best address our weaknesses with the players available at that point, tempered with the knowledge that we have a lot of selections this year and next year and can get some solid FA help in the near term if appropriate players are available and some usually are.

    Our plan is to have an inordinate number of draft picks so that we are not limited in who we should consider at any point in the draft due to a low number of draft picks remaining. This is more likely then not to include trading down for even more picks if the reservoir of available talent for our greatest needs warrants it. This is a very different way of thinking about the draft and I think it is a great approach as long as we would have almost twice the number of picks as our competitors.
     
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  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    This thread is "what do you think our plan is at QB"....hence why we're talking about quarterbacks here. And unless Rosen is eventually going to be the guy, then we absolutely have to draft a QB this season. That's the whole point of tanking, trading away Tannehill, etc...we have to get our QB.
     
  6. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores

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    I agree. We have to try and get our QB this season. However, for me, before I was in the sell the farm and do everything we can do to get a franchise QB, and now since we sort of know what's there, I have changed my mind on that a bit. Grier has been a BPA kind of guy, so I think Irishman and you could be both correct. We might go BPA with our 1st pick, and then take our QB later in round 1 with one of our others. I think I would be disappointed if we bundled up a bunch of our picks to move up and select Burrow. He's played well. I am just not sure he's a franchise guy. I really don't know though. I am just concerned about wasting resources that we could use to really shore up our team.
     
  7. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    My point was there is no specific plan for a QB, beyond what we have already done and who we have this season.

    What we have available right now is almost twice as many draft picks then other teams have. This was done intentional, not by accident. The most obvious reason to take this approach is to avail ourselves of as many opportunities in the drafts as possible. This means our picks are not "desperation" driven, but can be coldly analytical in aiming at improving the team as a whole as opposed to finding 2 or 3 "hero's" who will save the day.

    I am satisfied that the only plan for any future players, QB or any other position, is to continue to acquire even more picks. This way we can choose for any position at any pick because we are not as limited in choosing personnel as other teams are, due to the large number of picks we already have for this draft and the next. This number of picks may even be extended by trading down.

    Our plan for improving the team is not limited to specific positions or players at a given pick, due to the high level of flexibility we have given ourselves in our number of picks for the next two drafts. That is why I claim that assuming there is a specific plan for a QB is bogus.

    That is why I am presenting this new concept in building the team as the only real "plan" the FO actually has.

    It's the only thing that makes sense in light of the huge number of draft picks we have acquired to date! The FO will pick a QB when they feel that one of the available QB's will do the most to improve the team at any point in the draft. If they feel an offensive lineman will have more impact in our current teams overall performance, then that's who they will take. If they feel a QB will have more impact on our current teams performance, that's who they will take. They are no longer as shackled by the limited number of draft picks because we have so many more then our competitors.

    Other teams like the Browns have had years of early picks and large numbers of draft picks, but they used the same selection guidelines as most other teams and it limited their growth.

    The only team that doesn't show "desperation" in their draft picks is the Patriots. They end up with a few hero's like every other team, but they weren't aiming for hero's when the drafted them. They tend to save that for free agency, along with a willingness to drop any player at any time if they feel it benefits the team in terms of performance and this does include cap space.
     
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  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    There's no reason to trade up unless the franchise is absolutely in love with Burrow...then they SHOULD make the move. But the bigger point here is that we must take a QB in the first three rounds this draft and probably the next one as well.
     
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  9. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    It's not that I necessarily disagree, but a good QB will have more impact than any other single player.

    If an offensive lineman has more impact on the team winning it just says the QBs you had to choose from were pretty bad.
     
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  10. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I would add the possibility that the line is weak. No offensive line is any better then its weakest player.
     
  11. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores

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    Considering his strategy this year, is it safe to say that this off-season (FA and Draft) will make or break Grier's career? No doubt, it's going to hinge on who we select as QB. Tua's injury really hurts the class. I just hope Grier understands what makes a good QB or not, and we can get someone who will raise the bar considerably from what we are used too.
     
  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    How do we know that Rosen wasn't the best QB from last season's draft?

    Seriously- how do we know? He played in Arizona without a shred of talent around him, then he came to Miami and was placed behind the worst line possibly in the history of the league. He had a couple decent games, one bad one, and now most would say "they're done with Rosen....he's a bust." Yet there's zero evidence to actually prove that conclusion.

    I don't care if we draft Tua, Burrow or someone else entirely...the QB alone will not lead us to a championship. Grier needs to hit on at least a dozen picks this offseason for us to have a chance at a quick turnaround...and we likely need closer to 15-20 players. Most linemen will take at least a season to develop enough chemistry to become solid as a unit, so I'm not anywhere near as concerned about the QB we pick as I am the trenches, running backs and other massive holes we have on our roster.

    Because like I said- show me some proof in Miami film that Rosen wasn't the top quarterback from last season's class. You can't do that....honestly nobody can...which means we won't know what we have next season either unless a whole lot goes right on draft day, free agency and in training camp.

    So before we focus on finding the next Marino, hopefully Grier figures out how to protect the next Marino first. Fitzpatrick has been a punching bag this season and deserves MASSIVE RESPECT for the job he's done under the circumstances. Would you ask the "next Marino" to do the same like we've done with Rosen/Fitz? If your answer is "no", then maybe you'll realize how much has to go right this next offseason for us to defy the odds and have a winning record in the next couple of years.
     
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  13. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Most of us knew before the season this is how Fitz would perform though. We knew by starting him we would win 2-5 games, so I dont see how anything he has done is surprising when we all more or less predicted it.

    I dont necessarily think a rookie QB will do any better or worse, it comes down to their individual ability and how much development they need as well as what other moves we make.
     
  14. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores

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    I haven't totally given up on Rosen because I know how hard he and the coaching staff are working; however, from what I have seen so far I have my doubts. As far as the OL goes. You know I am big on investing heavily in the unit so we have an above-average line. That said, I am going to stop looking at the OL as an excuse for poor QB play. I believe, in the NFL, QB's have to handle the pressure. If they can't do that then I don't want 'em because we will end up with a Tannehill situation all over again.
     
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  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Okay, let's say the QB is completely on his own and he has to deal with pressure...no problem. But what about the run game? Do we say it's 100% on the running backs as well? Because if we could have run the ball even a little against Buffalo last week, then they couldn't keep coming on all-out blitzes and layout out Fitzpatrick over and over again.

    It's about more than just the QB evading pressure....a bad line makes you one-dimensional and makes your QB's job 10x harder. That's what we just witnessed last week and it won't change until we can move the pile and run the football.
     
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  16. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    What we witnessed last week was a team just utterly outclassed in talent.

    A good playmaker who doesn't need to rely on a dominant line is valuable, be it a QB or RB (or both). The fact is, you won't have a line comprised of 5 all-stars. You need both QB and RB who can step up when the line breaks down and still make plays. You simply cannot rely on a 5 man unit to stay healthy and dominant over a whole season and still have resources properly allocated elsewhere.

    That's not to say we should never spend early picks or sign a pricey free agent. But the situation has to be right, and without the right personnel making plays behind them, it's meaningless.
     
  17. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Why is Fitzmagic still in there? Why not start Rosen to close out the season? Rosen has had some time to study and learn the offense better, so why not see if there is marked improvement? If he showed enough improvement, you make him the default starter for 2020, even if we draft a QB in the first round.

    Maybe the rookie QB takes over halfway through the season, or if things are going well enough that playoffs are a possibility, you let Rosen keep playing.

    I'd argue that there is no one left we need to evaluate by having the vet QB play. It's time to look to next season and put the team in the best position for 2020.
     
  18. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like you actually agree with keyfin, but are trying hard not to acknowledge that you do.
     
  19. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Not really. I was pointing out that using the Buffalo game as any kind of measuring stick is likely folly because we have so little talent across the board on offense. As much as our line can struggle, our running game right now with Ballage is abysmal. I was really hoping he would be better, but he just doesn't look good.

    In general, having a good offensive line is a great thing, but not as important as a good QB (and coach) imo. Gotta find a balance on the line with investment, cant spend five first rounders on the OL (to be a bit hyperbolic) and expect to succeed.
     
  20. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores

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    I agree with them both, LOL. I want a kick *** OL that can pass block and run block, and I want a legit QB who can handle the pressure (very good decisions, run if he has too, etc.). I know, I am asking for a lot.
     
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  21. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    It's no more then I would ask for.

    A good team is usually well balanced. Adding 2 or 3 "hero's" to an unbalanced bad team usually makes them even more unbalanced and the "hero's" can seldom compensate for all the unbalanced positions on these kind of teams.

    All that does is raise a false hope in the fans who become even more jaded with the lack of progress after the addition of each new "hero".
     
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  22. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Please guys, lets not suggest Herbert (Eli Manning 2.0) to Miami again...

    And im a big Jalen Hurts fan but the last 4 games has made me rethink some things... hes got a lot of work to do..
     
  23. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Eli Manning has 2 SB rings, yeah, let's not go there.
     
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  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Do you really think Eli was driving the Super Bowl bus, though?
     
  25. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    .......oh brother
     
  26. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If you make it to the SB once I guess you could be dismissed as a flash in the pan. If you win twice, there has to be something there, especially when you were drafted first over-all. When you beat the patriots twice you have a special place in my heart. If he wasn't "driving" the bus he was certainly sitting in the first row with his hand on the wheel.
     
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  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Those two postseason runs were a study in how a team can elevate its play beyond its norm for a relatively brief stretch of games.

    In 2007-2008 Eli Manning's regular season passer rating was a mere 73.9. In the playoffs he elevated that to 95.7. The opponents' passer rating surrendered by the Giants in the regular season in 2007 was 83.4. In the playoffs that decreased to 70.4. So their passer rating differential during the playoffs that year was an astronomical 25.3.

    In 2011-2012 the same pattern emerged. Regular season Eli was 92.9; in the playoffs 103.3. The defense regular season was 86.1; in the playoffs 83.1. So again their passer rating differential was 20+, which is large.

    It was a combination of improved play by Eli and the pass defense in the playoffs. For example Tom Brady had the best season of his career in 2007, with an astronomical passer rating of 117.2. In the Super Bowl against the Giants that year it was a mere 82.5.

    Eli's in that game was 87.3, which is entirely consistent with the final score of 17-14. Thanks to the Giants' pass defense, Eli was able to outplay Brady by a narrow margin, and so the Giants won by a narrow margin.
     
  28. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Eli was instrumental in both of those SB wins, not just in the SB's themselves but also in the playoff games leading up to them. So he deserves a lot of credit for those two SB runs, but that's it IMO. He wasn't good in 3 of the 4 other years the Giants made the playoffs, and he was a statistically slightly below average regular season QB with a career z-score of -0.1381.

    In other words, Eli is NOT the type of QB you want if the goal is to regularly make the playoffs and have a decent chance at going deep in them. And there is simply no way to know how "clutch" any QB is going to be until they're in that situation (i.e., no way to know they'll do something similar to Eli in just 2 out of 15 years). So if you're projecting some college QB to be a Eli 2.0 it's best not to draft him.
     
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  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It's just another study in how you can indeed win a Super Bowl with an average quarterback -- if you have a pass defense that plays at an elite level -- but it isn't the method by which a team has its best chance of winning the Super Bowl.

    For winning Super Bowls, the combination of the elite quarterback and the at least average pass defense is the rule. The average quarterback and elite pass defense combination is the exception to the rule.

    So, you target the elite quarterback in the draft if you're trying to win a Super Bowl. You don't make the mistake of thinking you can "build around" the average quarterback and then pin your hopes on the unlikely assembling of a whole host of other players on both sides of the ball who can compensate for the average quarterback's performance.
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Great. Tannehill, given the right situation, can also be successful.

    Is that who we want to draft again? I'm just saying, I'm not trying to start a whole argument, but based on actual performance, you want an Eli? That Tyree throw/catch was all incredible play by Tyree, and three absolutely blatant holds by the Giants oline that were not called on that play. That's not even in the front seat of the bus. Lol

    I don't want an Eli.
     
  31. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    The more important point is that pass offense and pass defense are essentially equally important to make a SB run. The average z-score passer rating during the regular season for SB winners (from 1970-2018) is 1.0606 while it's 1.0885 for defense.

    Now, it is true that there are more cases where the regular season z-score rating on offense was higher than on defense for the SB winner: 27 vs. 22 for the 49 SB's from 1970. But since the average z-scores are the same, that means that when the eventual SB winner relies more on defense than offense, they do so to a greater degree than when they rely on offense instead of defense.

    So statistically speaking.. IF you rely on defense more than offense to win a SB, then you need a more elite defense than you'd need an elite offense if you relied on offense more. This also jibes with the estimated 5% greater influence offense has on win% than defense: if offense is more influential you don't need as "elite" an offense.
     
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  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And it’s also the case that the functioning of the offense revolves around the play of just one player far more than does the functioning of the defense, which is another argument for targeting the elite quarterback rather than building around the average one.
     
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  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    That's an opinion. I mean, I suppose if you're not looking a groups, but at only individuals, it's true. However, the oline functions as a unit. The receiving corp functions as a unit. The route trees build off each other...if each receiver isn't doing his job, the offense doesn't work.

    It's far too simplistic to look at the QB while ignoring the total effect of the oline unit or the receiving unit.
     
  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, I was looking at it in terms of individuals, within the context of drafting just one player. If you’re drafting just one player, the effort should not be to find a puzzle piece to put around an average quarterback, if an elite quarterback is available.
     
  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Then why are we arguing about Eli? Or were you agreeing with me? Lol
     
  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Agreeing. A team would be foolish to try to replicate the Eli scenario.
     
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  37. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I dont necessarily think teams try and replicate it....but they work with what they have. If we end up with that level of QB it wont be ideal but at least we know it is in fact possible to win a SB.

    Part of what made Eli moderately successful was that he could go on hot streaks like Flacco. If you can have a guy that occasionally reaches that higher level of play you at least have a shot.

    Just to note I DONT want Eli Manning 2.0 I'm just saying.
     
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  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, the point just comes down to whether, if you have the ability to obtain an elite quarterback, you should do that instead of thinking it would be more prudent to build around an average one. Building around the average one is by far the less successful enterprise. Don’t pass on the elite quarterback thinking it would be better to build around an average one. The Arizona Cardinals just showed us this thinking in spades last year.
     
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  39. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Sep 12, 2015
    I think this question is worth reevaluating with it looking like we have a 0% chance at anyone worth while this year.
     
  40. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I still believe they go after Tua or Fromm...or somebody WAY later as a developmental prospect.
     

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