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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by AGuyNamedAlex, Nov 4, 2019.
WADR, it is a bad strategy, because your strategy is based on correlation equaling causation.
Great QBs will be great QBs based on their talent and the situation they are drafted into. What pick or section or round, they were nabbed in, has nothing to do with it.
All that matters is the FO's evaluation and then being able to grab the guy they think has the best chance to make it.
Take Russell Wilson. Everyone acts like Seattle were smart for getting him the third round. They weren't. Russell Wilson is by far the best QB from that class and one of the best to play the game. Him not taken 1st pick of the draft, is an error in evaluation by all 32 teams. Now if Seattle did evaluate him properly but then said screw it I think he'll make it to our 3rd pick, then the FO got lucky and gambled too much, which is also an error. It is more likely they didn't evaluate him correctly. like everyone else.
So if a FO has a conviction about a guy, that's only half the equation, because now they have to actually be able to pick that guy before somebody else gets them. The ONLY way to guarantee that is to pick 1st. Other than that, your odds of getting the guy you have that strong of a conviction in start decreasing drastically. The second best way, is to load up on market capital, which would be draft picks in this scenario, and hope like hell you can use that capital to get your guy.
It's a balance between draft pick value and conviction. The round you select the QB in shows the level of conviction about them. Seattle calculated Wilson might have a, say, 20% chance of working out as a franchise QB and that was worth a third rounder to them. The Ravens thought Lamar had a 40% chance of being franchise caliber and so they traded back up into the first round.
So, how much draft value for a QB you think has a 25% chance of being a franchise QB? High second rounder? Late first? Late second? Early third? Miami would have been criticized for taking Lamar Jackson at #11 in 2018 (for reaching according to draft value), but if it works out, who cares? The strength of conviction about him wasn't high enough to pick him at #11 OR to trade back up into the late first and grab him.
So, it really all comes back to evaluation of a player and being willing to ignore the peer pressure that says you have to draft according to the commonly understood draft value of a player. Opportunity won't play that much of a factor. You can almost always trade up if you offer enough value to a team -you just have to have the conviction.
The plan is to trade all our acquired draft assets in a move up for a qb.
Of course those draft assets in Pittsburgh and Houston’s 1st rounders won’t move the needle at all witb where they are projected but I digress.
And the point is Seattle was wrong.
Well, the real point would be that 31 other teams were dead wrong....and Seattle was only partially wrong.
I get that everyone wants Tua because he's the shiniest object in the room, but that doesn't necessarily make him the best QB of the draft. Tua, Burrows, Fromm, Hebert, Hurtz....they could all be 10 year starters or they could all be busts. There's just no way to know how they'll play and react at NFL speed.
I'm lobbying for Burrows simply because they've played the most top 10 teams and I've never seen him lose his composure once, but at the end of the day that really doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme of things. I'll argue for Burrows until the cows come home yet I'm smart enough to know that I could very well be wrong and he's a complete bust.
The other thing I disagree with is picking QB's in the later rounds- they're simply not day-1 starters and you know that you'll need to work them up to NFL speed. There's too many other positions of need to focus on QB's who will linger a little while....I'd take a starting anything over a projected day-1 backup quarterback any day of the week. To me, Jalen Hurtz is that quarterback for the 2nd or 3rd round. That doesn't mean he doesn't have amazing potential though...I like him more than Burrows and Tua in some aspects. He's just not the complete package YET and that's 100% okay. Hurtz may well be the best quarterback in the entire draft five years from now though.
1. I don't think it is fair for you to say people want Tua just because other people want him. There's numerous people who have evaluated him individually from hype and come away thinking he will be great.
2. A very low effort argument could be made that Burrows is more the shiniest new thing in the room.
3. No Seattle wasn't partially wrong, they were 100% wrong, like everyone else. No team, not even Seattle thought Wilson would be who he turned out to be, otherwise, he'd have been taken at #1 or #2. They had no conviction on the guy.
LSU has played 6 top 25 teams this season (4 top 10) and beat them all convincingly. They have a stud defense but Burrows has been torching the field all year long...nobody expected them to be as dominant as they are. Meanwhile, Tua has yet to beat a top 5 opponent in three seasons...that should be a huge red flag.
I'm not saying Tua isn't good...he's a really freaking good QB. But really good in college could equal bust/backup in the pros. I personally need to see him win a few games that actually matter against a quality opponent.
I dont want Tua or Burrows. I want the Miami Dolphins to be able to pick the QB they want without interference from another team.
Just because we pick #1 doesnt mean it has to be Tua or Burrows.
I dont want to hear "Well Grier WANTED this player but settled for this other one who was a close second on the board"
Basically I dont even consider this season to be a season. Next year the building begins and I want it to begin with no question marks or excuses about the decisions made by our front office.
You literally ignored 3 points from a post that contained just 3 points.
You're first point was that Tua has value...I addressed that. Your 2nd point was that Burrows was a bust...I addressed that too.
Your 3rd point, that Seattle was wrong- I already said what I had to say there. We disagree and that's fine, but I'm pretty hell-bent on not arguing just for arguments sake anymore. So for that one I respected your opinion and moved on...even though your opinion was wrong. =)
1. My first point was that its not ok for you to assume other people don't value Tua based on their actual evaluation of his play nand not because some people have him anointed already.
2. My second point had literally NOTHING to do with saying Burrows is a bust. Just that he's the hot new flavor right now, just like you're saying people view Tua.
Seattle had the best draft value/conviction about Wilson. Some teams may have wanted him in the fourth or fifth round, others not at all. We could say they had the best conviction about him out of all the NFL teams.
Where does this conviction come from? Evaluation of said player and the team building philosophy. For example, Miami didn't want Wilson because he didn't match their physical profile of a franchise QB. That is a bad way to evaluate a QB though, as you miss the exceptions to the rule.
BTW, if you think Hurts could be a franchise QB, then grab him in the first round. Even if he needs to sit a year and develop, then take another year to learn to play as a starting NFL QB. Except of course, how strong is your conviction about him? About him developing into a franchise QB? Is it a 50% chance? A bit more? A bit less?
I will point again to Da Bears. They got almost everything right in building that team to contend -except they whiffed on the QB. So now nothing else they did matters all that much because they have the wrong QB. My point? Get the right QB and putting everything else in place will be easy by comparison.
NOTHING else Miami does with all these picks and cap space will matter that much if they whiff on getting the right QB. Unless you want to be sure you have a team good enough to win 7-9 games a season, then those other picks and the cap space does matter.
There were 11 picks before him and 20 picks taken after him in the 3rd round. For all any of us know, if any one of the those 11 before picks were different, Seattle may have taken them instead. If Wilson had been available after anyone of those 20 picks after could have been him as well.
That's my point though...conviction. They didn't have conviction about Wilson...no team did, else they would have taken them with their first pick. If you don't, then that means you're ok missing out on them, no matter if you luck out and get them later.
1) Tua looks AMAZING on film. Not good....not great...AMAZING. But then you realize he has one of the best lines in football, the top receiver in football, and they're playing average NCAA teams that can't ever seem to get within 3 feet of Tua. Alabama in general is way ahead of the rest of the league (LSU excluded) at virtually every position...so how do you properly evaluate the quarterback? The evaluation says he's a stud...but is he only a stud because he's untouchable behind that line? We really don't know.
2) The national media is heavy on Burrows because he just beat Tua, but there's some here that have been super high on Burrows all season long based on the opponents they've beaten while Burrows ran for his life and threw amazing passes. Personally, I feel like the media is well behind on him since he's been that guy all year.
Like I said earlier though- does that make him a lock in the NFL? Nope. He'd be my #1 overall pick in a heartbeat but we don't know how his game will translate to NFL speed. I personally think he could be one of the all-time greats....but who knows?!?
I'm sorry man, I don't know if I'm being unclear or if your;'e just not really paying attention, but you're still completely missing my points.
I think the issue is his argument works for every position except QB simply due to the demand of the position.
Also 25% is huge. If a team thought a QB had a 25% chance to be Russel Wilson they would take him #1 overall. The real odds are much lower.
I'd guess the projected odds of a non first round QB having a significant impact are probably under 3%.
If they believed he had a 25% chance to be a franchise QB they would take him in the first. The reality is using percentages actually shows how little the Seahawks did value him.
Right, they didn't value as they should have. No one did. Their evaluation was incorrect, as was everyone else's.
That's classic Tannebaum there. Puts a premium on a QB's size and athleticism vs his actual ability to play QB.
Sorry guys, but holy f*ck, it's Joe Burrow.
I just got done reading and was about to post that exact thing.
He put a premium on size alone there. He’s clown shoes and I’m glad he’s long gone.
Historically about 14% (roughly 1 in 7) number 1 overall QBs turn into a HoF QB. Although that sounds low it is MUCH higher than any other pick in the draft.
So if your evaluation is that he had a 25% chance of being a HoF QB then you trade heaven and earth to get him.
When i think about it.. i think the plan should be to draft two qb’s..
i wouldnt mind drafting Anthony Gordon from Washington State with a 4th round pick.. but i get the feeling hes going to go earlier than that.. when I watched him play against Oregon a few weeks ago, i was like wow that kid is a baller..
Here is some vid.. he outplayed Herbert by a lot
“I think Tua is a good quarterback- but we're not looking for someone good at this time. Tannehill was good, Fitzpatrick is good. We're looking for a 10 year starter and I think Tua is nothing special compared to the average NFL talent today.”
This is a very inaccurate evaluation of Tua, Tannehill and Fitzpatrick..imo..
Now for a hard question. Are you willing to spend 2 of our 3 1st rd picks on 2 QB's? Not packaging 2 to get 1. Picking 2 Legit 1st round talents.
That's what I think they should do, and pick someone in the 5th or later to go with it. And pick a 1st rd QB next year too. Just keep shooting until you hit it.
How will you ever find enough touches to determine the hit if you are drafting 3 QBs a year? That's insane.
I think the Cardinals showed a fairly bold way to go in ditching a first rounder quickly, and the Redskins with RG3 and Cousins wasn't a bad thing, but no, your proposal is way too much, especially for a team as generally starved of talent as we are.
Before the rookie salary cap yes, I agree, too many QBs might be bad. Need three every year on the roster. Anyone we have now irreplaceable? Starting over couldn't hurt, keep Fitz and the top 2 rookies to fight it out.
Now...A Brees / Rivers type competition would be easy, Keep them both for a year, or two even to thoroughly evaluate if needed. If they both hit, trade one for another 1st or 2nd rounder, Like the pasties did with Jimmy G or the Chargers with Brees or damn near any QB thats ever started a game can get a 2nd seems like. Arizona traded their bust for a 2nd. The depreciation on 1st round QBS is low. We shouldn't draft 2 or 3 QBs every year, but we have the ammo next year and we HAVE to hit the target. People are willing to throw away a whole season to get the first pick in order to make sure we get the QB we want. Whats the difference? Take the shots. And yes, draft a QB EVERY year. It's THE MOST IMPORTANT POSITION. Why not have 2, or 3 and be a seller?
Would you guys sign Kapernick if his workout goes well?
If he wanted to be the backup, sure.
With our current roster and short term goals? Probably not.
Do we really need a damm circus around here?
This season has been nothing but a damn circus
Lol!Can't argue with that.
Although we will probably draft a QB, I don't think the Dolphins have given up on Rosen. Armando has an interesting article about how Rosen is working to improve behind the scenes. We all know he has the physical tools. He needs to improve the mental aspect of the game. Time will tell, but at least he is working his butt off and hasn't given up.
If I were to try and fix Rosen, I would watch the tape with him and let him know that you cannot just trust your line, you have to have your escape route planned when you see the rush coming, the plan would be to play offscript a bit til they back off, step up immediately in the pocket, take off running when there is a lane, and just play to win, do not sit back and pretend that everything is going to be ok.
What they are doing is timing his throws and working on speeding up his progressions.