What could have been!

Well when you fire a coach because he wants to win you need to hire a coach who is willing to lose. No soup for you Mr Ross!!

Why on earth would the Bengals not take Joe Burrow? They still need their QB of the future.

"adamprez2003 wrote:

Well when you fire a coach because he wants to win you need to hire a coach who is willing to lose. No soup for you Mr Ross!!

ha ha ha exactly. Might be good for our long term future not good for our here and now

San Fran is the perfect example of how to build a team the right way and turn things around in one season. With a team like that you could sign a QB from somebody's practice squad and still get to the play-offs consistently.

What does this have to do with Ryan Tannehill?

I don’t want to hear anyone in this organization crying about not getting a top 3 QB this year. 100% in our control and we messed it up. If they believe Fitz is the answer they are stupid. No disrespect to Fitz he’s a hell of a guy but the entire idea was to build a new team around a young QB Ross isn’t going to give Flores and co 6 years to get this built.

Hope we have some trucks up our sleeves and that we don’t look silly next season

Tua is within reach, or take a shot on Love later in the first round. Ross and company might yet succeed in spite of themselves.

"Dorfdad wrote:

I don’t want to hear anyone in this organization crying about not getting a top 3 QB this year. 100% in our control and we messed it up. If they believe Fitz is the answer they are stupid. No disrespect to Fitz he’s a hell of a guy but the entire idea was to build a new team around a young QB Ross isn’t going to give Flores and co 6 years to get this built.

Hope we have some trucks up our sleeves and that we don’t look silly next season[/QUOT
I was worried when they signed Fitz that he would win a few games but then I looked at the roster after all the trades and thought nah were good.
Now it's going to cost us in the long run.

What idiotic logic in the writer’s thought process. If the Dolphins had only embraced their 0-7 start but then, turns right around using San Francisco as the model if you will, citing their 4-12 record.

Idiotic! The 49ers comparison is dumb. They had their quarterback they traded with New England and there’s really not any big difference between 5-11 and 4-12

What a hack

Yep, it's barely even an article...just a quick throwaway piece with zero analysis.

Note: "Look at how the 49ers benefited from going 4-12 last year. It got them the second overall pick..."

4-12 = 2nd pick.

Nice if you can get it. But 5-11 is only good for 5th this year.

Perhaps, just maybe, getting a record lower than 5-11, 4-12, is actually rather difficult. Maybe it requires a bad roster + injuries + bad coaching?

Well the Dolphins was gutted.
We had guys on IR.
Whoops, we have, what looks like, a good coach.

I'd call that a rather significant win! Because the formula for acquiring the #1 pick isn't important. Another formula is more important - how to become a successful team and that's the Dolphins aim here. They have stated, and I believe them, that they were not trying to get the number one pick in the draft. They were, and are, trying to re-build a team.

What's the formula they're using?

Get a good HC and staff.
Get cap friendly contracts.
Acquire talent.
Maximise talent.
(And acquiring draft picks wherever possible while doing those other things in order to help continue to do those things.)

Have the Dolphins failed because they didn't get #1? Not in the slightest. As we've been reminded, the #1 pick is a guarantee of nothing. Instead they've been focusing on the plan to become successful not the plan to be #1 in the draft.

So what is the draft plan? Go full Jack Sparrow.

Acquire as many picks as you can while doing everything else to be successful and then see what you can do and what you can't do.

They CAN aim to spread out the picks and getting players to fill as many gaps as possible with quality talent, or, they CAN use multiple picks to acquire a talented QB. However, you CAN'T expect continued success and SB wins without a talented QB.

So my guess, per my other thread, is that the Dolphins will, and are planning to, move up to draft a QB. Whether that's Burrow or Tua remains to be seen, but I don't see Tua even going at 5. He might, but I expect a trade up to 3, because you CAN trade up and secure the guy you want, you CAN'T pick him at 5 if he's not there, nor can you count on him being there.

If the Bengals show interested in having more picks to re-build their team (because hey, it's the Bengals), then the Dolphins CAN move up and get him. And having the option to do that was, I suspect, always the plan.

The draft is unpredictable. You never know what might happen in the run up, nor what other teams might do. With more picks the Dolphins will have more options. For example, Tua's injury and Burrow's rise may be an unexpected win for the Dolphins, if he's the guy they like, because instead of teams fighting over just one QB - Tua - and that needing the #1 pick, a second option is now on the table. Maybe both will be and the Dolphins will have to decide whether they like one player over another at whatever price.

Either way, what wasn't going to happen, nor should it have happened, was the team sacrificing one essential portion of the plan to be successful in order to strength a more open and flexible part of it. The Dolphins were never going to sacrifice the 'get a good coach' part in order to move up the draft board a bit. Well done Dolphins, I say. The Dolphins feel like they've checked off one part of the plan - get a good HC. They've checked off part two - trade bad or expensive contracts or talent in order to acquire picks. They're working on part 3 - maximise talent. And with the draft will come part 4, acquire a talented QB.

They've done as much as they could this year to build up picks and options for the draft. Now it remains to see what other teams will do and to maneuver themselves accordingly.

So far, so freaking good in my mind.

TUA scares me. Undersized and in college seemed injury prone. I dunno maybe he’s drew brees and we get lucky just scared at this time about moving up for him

The Dolphins need to do some careful analysis here, because they need to decide whether to trade picks to move up to #1 and get Burrow (if indeed the Bengals are responsive) or stand pat and get a QB at #5, and then keep the picks and surround that QB with lots of cheap talent on their rookie contracts. The chosen approach of course revolves around how much better they believe Burrow is than whatever QB they anticipate getting at #5.

The Dolphins are actually in a unique position in which the quality of the quarterback isn't as important for them as it is for the typical team in the league, because it's possible that they could 1) have a quarterback who has a relatively small cap hit, and 2) have lots of young talent (by virtue of the large number of high draft picks) that is also counting very little against that cap.

When combined with the free agency possibilities that salary cap scenario creates, they could be in the unique position of having lots of talent all over the field. And you need only an average QB with that going on. You don't need Joe Burrow.

"The Guy wrote:

The Dolphins need to do some careful analysis here, because they need to decide whether to trade picks to move up to #1 and get Burrow (if indeed the Bengals are responsive) or stand pat and get a QB at #5, and then keep the picks and surround that QB with lots of cheap talent on their rookie contracts. The chosen approach of course revolves around how much better they believe Burrow is than whatever QB they anticipate getting at #5.

The Dolphins are actually in a unique position in which the quality of the quarterback isn't as important for them as it is for the typical team in the league, because it's possible that they could 1) have a quarterback who has a relatively small cap hit, and 2) have lots of young talent (by virtue of the large number of high draft picks) that is also counting very little against that cap.

When combined with the free agency possibilities that salary cap scenario creates, they could be in the unique position of having lots of talent all over the field. And you need only an average QB with that going on. You don't need Joe Burrow.

Why do the Dolphins only need an average QB?

"Galant wrote:

Why do the Dolphins only need an average QB?

In other words if it pans out that standing pat at #5 overall this year lands a QB and a boatload of other cheap talent (with the high number of other high picks), then the team could be in a scenario in which it has 1) lots of cheap talent that counts very little against the cap (i.e., all of the picks are on rookie contracts), which 2) opens up lots of possibilities for free agents with the remaining cap money. You could then have a team that has tons of talent all over the field, and that kind of team needs only an average QB.

"Dorfdad wrote:

TUA scares me. Undersized and in college seemed injury prone. I dunno maybe he’s drew brees and we get lucky just scared at this time about moving up for him

The ONLY thing we have to be scared of is the Dolphins out-thinking themselves and NOT drafting Tua. Statistically, the most likely outcome is that BOTH Tua and Burrow fail to be anything more than average. Who cares. You try until you succeed, and this season actually turned out well for us because we have evidence Flores might be a good coach (still too early to know of course) AND we're in the best position of all teams to draft the 2nd hottest QB prospect in the draft – a QB that just happened to be the consensus best before Burrow came along.

Just relax. We're in good position. Draft Tua and focus on building the rest of the team around him. Drafting Tua is good too for the OL too because with him being left handed we only need a top RT and it's easier to get a top RT later on than a top LT.

"The Guy wrote:

In other words if it pans out that standing pat at #5 overall this year lands a QB and a boatload of other cheap talent (with the high number of other high picks), then the team could be in a scenario in which it has 1) lots of cheap talent that counts very little against the cap, which 2) opens up lots of possibilities for free agents with the remaining cap money. You could then have a team that has tons of talent all over the field, and that kind of team needs only an average QB.

So I'd restate that as Dolphins could get away with only having an average QB.

Which is possible, but I'm not sure you aim for that. I think you aim for as good a QB as you can possibly get. Ideally it's a position you lock down and create longevity for the offence. Other positions can be average in terms of talent and keep the players rotating, but not QB.

What's more, I'm not sure the #5 pick at QB should ever be average. If you're aiming for that you pick your QB later on when it's easier to take risks and land on 'average' instead of at #5.

If the Dolphins are still high on Tua after the medicals etc. then I don't see them taking the risk of having an average/limited QB when a potentially high quality QB is up for grabs.

Speaking of which, I suspect the Dolphins will need to move to #3 to be certain of Tua. I've no idea how open teams are on draft night in terms of what trades they can get, but if the Lions are accepting trades then I think the Dolphins have to make the trade if they want to be sure of Tua.

"The Guy wrote:

The Dolphins need to do some careful analysis here, because they need to decide whether to trade picks to move up to #1 and get Burrow (if indeed the Bengals are responsive) or stand pat and get a QB at #5, and then keep the picks and surround that QB with lots of cheap talent on their rookie contracts. The chosen approach of course revolves around how much better they believe Burrow is than whatever QB they anticipate getting at #5.

Bengals have no intention of trading the #1 pick and are committed to Joe Burrow:
https://www.cincyjungle.com/2020/1/19/21072957/nfl-trade-rumors-bengals-2020-draft-lsu-tigers-football-news-joe-burrow

But even if the godfather offers come, it sounds like the Bengals will refuse any trade and keep the No. 1 pick, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

So no one should be realistically considering trading up to get Burrow. That's a done deal for Cinci.

Realistically for us the choice is to stay at #5 and hope no one else takes Tua, or trade up a bit and make sure we get Tua. At worst that means giving up one of our other 1st rounders. So the question is this: is the expected increase in win% with Tua compared to the next best QB greater than the expected increase in win% with whoever we'd pick with the pick we traded? And given how important the QB position is, it's likely the calculus falls squarely on the side of being better to trade up if necessary to get Tua.

"cbrad wrote:

Bengals have no intention of trading the #1 pick and are committed to Joe Burrow:
https://www.cincyjungle.com/2020/1/19/21072957/nfl-trade-rumors-bengals-2020-draft-lsu-tigers-football-news-joe-burrow

So no one should be realistically considering trading up to get Burrow. That's a done deal for Cinci.

Realistically for us the choice is to stay at #5 and hope no one else takes Tua, or trade up a bit and make sure we get Tua. At worst that means giving up one of our other 1st rounders. So the question is this: is the expected increase in win% with Tua compared to the next best QB greater than the expected increase in win% with whoever we'd pick with the pick we traded? And given how important the QB position is, it's likely the calculus falls squarely on the side of being better to trade up if necessary to get Tua.

If it takes only one of the other first-round picks, preferably the latter one, to ensure getting Tua then I'd be all for it, because it would still leave a good number of high picks to keep the team in the scenario I mentioned above (lots of players on cheap rookie contracts, leaving lots of cap room for free agents). That would mitigate somewhat against Tua's not panning out at the level at which he's projected.

"Galant wrote:

Yep, it's barely even an article...just a quick throwaway piece with zero analysis.

Note: "Look at how the 49ers benefited from going 4-12 last year. It got them the second overall pick..."

4-12 = 2nd pick.

Nice if you can get it. But 5-11 is only good for 5th this year.

Perhaps, just maybe, getting a record lower than 5-11, 4-12, is actually rather difficult. Maybe it requires a bad roster + injuries + bad coaching?

Well the Dolphins was gutted.
We had guys on IR.
Whoops, we have, what looks like, a good coach.

I'd call that a rather significant win! Because the formula for acquiring the #1 pick isn't important. Another formula is more important - how to become a successful team and that's the Dolphins aim here. They have stated, and I believe them, that they were not trying to get the number one pick in the draft. They were, and are, trying to re-build a team.

What's the formula they're using?

Get a good HC and staff.
Get cap friendly contracts.
Acquire talent.
Maximise talent.
(And acquiring draft picks wherever possible while doing those other things in order to help continue to do those things.)

Have the Dolphins failed because they didn't get #1? Not in the slightest. As we've been reminded, the #1 pick is a guarantee of nothing. Instead they've been focusing on the plan to become successful not the plan to be #1 in the draft.

So what is the draft plan? Go full Jack Sparrow.

Acquire as many picks as you can while doing everything else to be successful and then see what you can do and what you can't do.

They CAN aim to spread out the picks and getting players to fill as many gaps as possible with quality talent, or, they CAN use multiple picks to acquire a talented QB. However, you CAN'T expect continued success and SB wins without a talented QB.

So my guess, per my other thread, is that the Dolphins will, and are planning to, move up to draft a QB. Whether that's Burrow or Tua remains to be seen, but I don't see Tua even going at 5. He might, but I expect a trade up to 3, because you CAN trade up and secure the guy you want, you CAN'T pick him at 5 if he's not there, nor can you count on him being there.

If the Bengals show interested in having more picks to re-build their team (because hey, it's the Bengals), then the Dolphins CAN move up and get him. And having the option to do that was, I suspect, always the plan.

The draft is unpredictable. You never know what might happen in the run up, nor what other teams might do. With more picks the Dolphins will have more options. For example, Tua's injury and Burrow's rise may be an unexpected win for the Dolphins, if he's the guy they like, because instead of teams fighting over just one QB - Tua - and that needing the #1 pick, a second option is now on the table. Maybe both will be and the Dolphins will have to decide whether they like one player over another at whatever price.

Either way, what wasn't going to happen, nor should it have happened, was the team sacrificing one essential portion of the plan to be successful in order to strength a more open and flexible part of it. The Dolphins were never going to sacrifice the 'get a good coach' part in order to move up the draft board a bit. Well done Dolphins, I say. The Dolphins feel like they've checked off one part of the plan - get a good HC. They've checked off part two - trade bad or expensive contracts or talent in order to acquire picks. They're working on part 3 - maximise talent. And with the draft will come part 4, acquire a talented QB.

They've done as much as they could this year to build up picks and options for the draft. Now it remains to see what other teams will do and to maneuver themselves accordingly.

So far, so freaking good in my mind.

Sorry but there is no way to justify winning games in a lost season and being forced to use additional picks to get to a pick you could have had naturally.

It's just incredibly bad value. Signing Fitz was a (fun) mistake that lost us value.

I still believe that getting some of our younger talent to buy in and then teaching them how to win close games by practice, hard work and attention to detail is more important than any one pick who hasn’t proven anything in the NFL.

Even if Burrow is the next Marino, would it be worth having him if everyone else around him didn’t do what it takes to win?

"pumpdogs wrote:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/01/21/source-dolphins-would-love-to-land-joe-burrow/

Who gives a crap what Florio says, he's a blowhard

"Dorfdad wrote:

TUA scares me. Undersized and in college seemed injury prone. I dunno maybe he’s drew brees and we get lucky just scared at this time about moving up for him

The hip is a worry but the two ELECTIVE surgeries for the high ankle sprains are not a major issue - these were to quicken up recovery and lessen the chances of severe high ankle sprains occuring again. Most players in the NFL get high ankle sprains, as it's very common apparently

"Dorfdad wrote:

I don’t want to hear anyone in this organization crying about not getting a top 3 QB this year. 100% in our control and we messed it up. If they believe Fitz is the answer they are stupid. No disrespect to Fitz he’s a hell of a guy but the entire idea was to build a new team around a young QB Ross isn’t going to give Flores and co 6 years to get this built.

Hope we have some trucks up our sleeves and that we don’t look silly next season

Actually, the plan for this season was to accumulate draft & FA capital and evaluate an entire roster & coaching staff - it was never about getting the number 1 pick. Fitz gave us the best chance to evaluate the entire offense, as there was a much smaller chance that the coaches could have done that with Rosen starting. Parker & Gesicki are unlikely to have had the season they did with Rosen starting. Also, it gave Rosen a chance to sit behind Fitz for a year, as he's still younger than Burrow and needed that time on the sidelines - he likely would have died behind our Oline.
I highly doubt the coaches see Fitz as anything but someone to babysit the offense next season, whilst Tua/Love/Rosen/whoever sit behind them for another year.
I reckon after this season, Ross is very happy that he has got Flores

Anybody who would rather have had a loss against NE in Foxborough needs to turn in their Fan credentials. Wait and see, Burrow will do for the Bungles what Murray did for Arizona and Mayfield did for the Browns, elevated them slightly. Put a highly talented guy on a crappy team and he will soon disappear in the dust. Next year this time it will be someone else. Andrew Luck was a sure thing too, most complete NFL ready QB in recent memory, as I recall.