What Are Reasonable Rookie Expectations for Miami Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi? | Bleacher R

rafael · Jul 31, 2015

Sceeto said:

Give it up. He is apparently lost in the sauce.
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I guess some people just want to argue.

Da 'Fins · Jul 31, 2015

I agree with Raphael's points. There is no doubt that generally speaking, most 5th rounders don't pan out. However, in a number of drafts the vast majority of 1st rounders don't pan out.

But, that Ajayi was drafted in the fifth is not altogether indicative - as has been well argued in Raphael's posts.

In that regard, before I came across this thread I recently saw this from KC Joyner at ESPN (linked in a post on team's that could surprise - including the Dolphins):

A useful rule of thumb for grading players from non-Power 5 conferences is that they should be expected to post numbers that are much higher than most of the top prospects who play in Power 5 conferences.

Many fall short under this type of scrutiny, but Ajayi is one whose non-Power 5 conference draft case holds up quite well.

According to Stats LLC, Melvin Gordon and Ajayi were the only two backs in college football to make opposing tacklers miss at least 60 tackles -- and no other back had as many as 50. Ajayi also ranked tied for fifth nationally in the broken tackles category (16).

Ajayi saved some of his best performances for inside the red zone, as he placed second in the nation in terms of red-zone rushing yards (299) and ranked first in red-zone rushing touchdowns (25). Add in his superb passing-game ability (Scouts Inc. gave him a "1" rating here that designates exceptional performance in this area) and it equals a back who could provide a huge shot in the arm for an NFL offense in 2015.
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He may not last many years but if he can be effective for 3 years - it's still a steal. Looking forward to seeing what he adds to the Dolphins and hope he stays healthy.

A13OVEAVERAGE · Jul 31, 2015

[video=twitter;627119622962184192]https://twitter.com/GregLikens/status/627119622962184192[/video]
[video=twitter;627121121532448768]https://twitter.com/AdamHBeasley/status/627121121532448768[/video]
[video=twitter;627121335618113536]https://twitter.com/ArmandoSalguero/status/627121335618113536[/video]
[video=twitter;627121410998202368]https://twitter.com/flasportsbuzz/status/627121410998202368[/video]

I hope it's nothing serious, maybe we should wait on making predictions this early.

resnor · Jul 31, 2015

Stringer Bell said:

We have no idea where teams had him rated. What we do know is that he wasn't selected until the fifth round. Markets are inherently more accurate than any individual within the market.
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So then we can assume that La'el Collins was considered to not be a viable NFL prospect, right? Since we judge how teams viewed the player based solely on draft position.

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