Thought I'd throw this out there for discussion. Most of us would agree that, had they declared, both Sam Baker (OT, USC) and Brian Brohm (QB, Louisville) would have been top 10 or top 15 picks. Colt Brennan (QB, Hawaii) would have probably been a late first or early second guy. Now it's Brohm who has a late first or early second grade, Baker is probably a solid second (though he is dropping), and Brennan might be lucky to get drafted. Two consensus top 10 guys this year, and probably top 15 guys last year, who didn't slip are Jake Long (OT, Michigan) and Glenn Dorsey (DT, LSU). So it would seem like there isn't always a world of difference between the premium first rounders and the second round guys. There's probably plenty of examples I missed. So two questions, 1) Which one of this year's first rounders do you think would have a good chance of slipping if they stayed in college an extra year? 2) Do guys like Baker and Brohm represent tremendous value in the second, or is that where they should've been all along? A guy I could easily see slipping out of the top 10 is Matt Ryan. I'm also a little bit suspicious of Ryan Clady and even Chris Long, who both played on mediocre teams can could look good or bad because of it (the Notre Dame effect).
The guy who should have stayed in college was Kevin Smith, he is the one jr who is coming out to soon and will be lost in the shuffle.
Do you happen to know where he is projected to be drafted now? I would love for miami to draft him, or Stewart from Auburn, I think Smith could be a Freeman McNeil/Curtis Martin type of back. Pat Sims may have slipped if he waited a year, there are not very many good DT prospects this season.
1) no idea 2) Yes I think they both represent excellent value. Brohm didn't really have all that bad of a year. Neither did Baker, I think this is a case of familiarity breeding contempt. We got to know them too well and expected more, so they fall in the draft. Either Brohm or Baker would be solid pickups in the 2nd round.
Only to apply a different angle, some top tier prospects were slipping in the year, but some may have slipped anyway, if they faced the same issues they have faced this offseason.
