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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Dorfdad, Sep 2, 2020.
Should have kept Raekwon. Baker was always getting out of position and misdiagnosing.
Flores should have crowded the DL earlier in the game.
They adapted pretty quickly. I give them credit for that, because Gase and Philbin probably would have let the Pats do whatever they wanted all game long.
They basically did do what they wanted 95% of the game IMO. They just took their merry time doing it and fumbled through the endzone once.
It expectedly looked like preseason.
They played smart football and took what was there. I dream of the Dolphins one day doing the same.
Those 5 wins last season...setting up so many unrealistic expectations...I would say a 7-9 season would be a very good season in this stage of the rebuild. We have made a lot of improvements and as a result, we were not blasted by 40 points in the first week, but this team is still talent deficient.
I totally agree. Last year was really a two win club that overachieved a few times at the end.
I mostly agree, but being honest the only reason we didnt get blasted by 40 was NE taking their sweet time between plays and fumbling it away.
In some ways I found the game less encouraging. When you know what is coming and still cant stop it unless they screw the pooch that isnt good.
Again though it was week one after a strange offseason. I'm not blaming them or judging them on one game, but I didnt necessarily feel better about this week one from an execution standpoint.
Another way to put it was Baltimorebwent for kill shots all day. NE decided to gently poke us repeatedly and play it safe, but it still wasnt encouraging on it's own.
In my opinion of course.
Rest Of the Season predictions:
Week 12 Loss Jets 24 Dolphins 13
The Jets will watch this week’s tape and find the formula to sack Tua 4 or more times this week. The Dolphins will be held to under 250 yards of Offense again. The Jets will rush for over 125 yards.
Week 13 Win Bengals 14 Dolphins 21
The Dolphins will manage to beat a team without Joe Burrow or Joe Mixon. The Dolphins will finally have a 100 yard rusher.
Week 14 Loss Chiefs 31 Dolphins 27
The Dolphins manage to find a passing game against a below average D. The Chiefs Offense is just too good.
Week 15 Loss Patriots 28 Dolphins 17
The Pats run all over the Dolphins. Another sack fest against, Tua is sacked 5 times.
Week 16 Loss Raiders 35 Dolphins 10
The Raiders offense goes off. Over 500 total yards. Dolphins Offense can’t get anything going
Week 17 Win Bills 24 Dolphins 28
The Bills rest most of their starters and the Dolphins get a meaningless win to mess up their draft spot.
Wow, aren't you a ray of hope on a somber day.
I do agree that the season just took a serious turn downward, however. I think it's entirely possible that the only remaining win is against the Jets.
Wait until these picks Tua has gotten very lucky with regard to actually start becoming real picks. That'll make a huge difference, and not in a positive way. And I think after the film that was put together on him (and his bereft of talent surroundings) yesterday, those will become only more likely.
lol.. you're predicting we end 2-4, losing to the Jets. Man, I'd gladly bet real money with you (1:1 odds) that we get at least 3 more wins this season. I'd also bet 1:1 odds we beat the Jets (Vegas would LOVE that bet I bet lol).
It's like the only memory you have of this team is what happened yesterday. We actually looked real impressive (as a team) for a handful of games. Not sure why you think only yesterday is the real Dolphins. Well we'll see!
EDIT: just checked. Vegas favors us over the Jets by a TD. So 1:1 odds please!
The problem is that they did it with smoke and mirrors during Tua's first three games. Very high-impact defensive and special teams plays that can't be relied on, accompanied by luck with regard to offensive turnovers, amidst inefficiency by and large in the offensive passing game.
I mean if you want to get real pessimistic here, imagine a scenario going forward where Tua's picks are actually caught and count, the offensive passing game stays just as inefficient, and the defensive and special teams plays evaporate. That's a team that can beat almost no one.
You keep saying smoke and mirrors, but that smoke and mirrors lasted FAR longer than you predicted. You suggested after the Rams game that this was just a one game thing, precisely because you saw that as luck. Remember I was saying game planning was sustainable? I think I was proven right in that regard because it wasn't just the Rams game.
Also, we didn't lose yesterday because of a lack of smoke and mirrors. After all that crap Fitz almost led us to OT. We lost yesterday because for some unknown reason almost all the players were playing like they had taken sleeping pills, like they were jet lagged or so. The coach is responsible for this of course. Either way, for me the Denver game is the anomaly.
The Jets have been getting better each week. Our offense has been absolute garbage with Tua. We have been winning on defensive and special teams which aren’t something we can’t maintain long term. Offense needs a massive over haul this off season.
This is how I predict the rest of the season will go.
Still better than I originally thought, 9-10 wins. The sky is not falling. This team will improve, Flo will fix things and we we will got at least 3-3 to finish the season.
I know you're not big on DVOA, but just put that aside for a moment and consider the concept here:
So during Tua's three starts prior to Denver, the team was getting extreme benefit from its special teams. That isn't sustainable. They were also getting uncharacteristically good performance from the defense, and whether that's sustainable is questionable. And both of those things were going on alongside decreased offensive performance, which again was mitigated by luck with regard to INTs. Those features don't forecast well, and they appeared to explain the performance yesterday IMO.
Yeah, but it was sustained for 3 games. Something is wrong with your hypothesis if this is just to be treated as luck. I mean, you can see that the defensive scheme the Dolphins used created tons of pressure on the QB, making turnovers and other defensive stops more likely. It's not like all this was happening in a vacuum.
Best example that great plays by a defense isn't necessarily luck is that Ravens defense from 2000. We're nothing in comparison to that one of course, but you would have (incorrectly) said that was unsustainable too.
Brian Flores and his staff deserve a ton of credit. They've taken what is essentially the youngest team in the league, with no offseason program, no preseason, and gotten them to do virtually all of the little things correctly, while minimizing mental mistakes. The special teams are fantastic nearly every week, and they've been getting much better at reducing turnovers, averaging only one per game the last six.
However, they've been squeezing every ounce out of the team that they can, and are mazimizing what they have to work with. A lot of other coaching staffs would probably have this group of players at 3-7 or 4-6 right now, which is where I pegged them based on their talent and experience. They could only keep it going for so long, and a day like yesterday was bound to happen as it caught up to them.
I expect that they'll probably be able to bounce back and beat the Jets and Bengals, who are basically the two worst teams in the league now that Burrow and Mixon are injured. But it wouldn't surprise me if they lost the final four games after that. What I want to see, more than wins, is the offense and defense both step up and be able to do their jobs without the benefit of the big play. We'll see how it goes.
Tua's three-game win streak had a few things in common with Fitz's two wins directly before we got hot. The D was playing lights-out and special teams was making huge plays. With Fitz at QB, we were blowing teams out. With Tua, these were fairly close games since the offense clearly regressed. And I'm not second-guessing Flores because Tua needs that experience sooner rather than later, but people have to have realistic expectations about these outcomes.
Tua was forced into some really bad situations yesterday rolling out to the right and throwing against his body...it's not shocking that those passes sailed high or weren't generally accurate.
The Jets and 49ers were just inept in those last two games that Fitz started, as well. They couldn't do a thing right all game long. And while people have gotten angry at me for saying so, they could have lost any of the last three games before yesterday had the defense and special teams not made the huge plays that they did, when they did. Aside from not turning the ball over and executing well in the Red Zone, the offense has done basically nothing while the defense has been gashed by the run and susceptible to the pass every week.
I'm not upset. Its just reality, and its going to take more than a year and a half to turn the team around.
I agree, I'm not upset either...it is what it is and this is a process that will take time.
I generally dont like his form rolling/throwing right.
It's a harder pass of course and I dont expect pinpoint accuracy of course. If you watch a righty roll left and throw you'll notice how their right side usually leads on short throws as they move parallel to the line and on longer throws their body is already squared as much as possible and it's one fluid motion.
When Tua rolls right he tends to keep his left side behind and does a weird hop or wind up as he throws, he sometimes tries to square his entire body like it was a normal pass and that's not really optimal either just due to needing to rush your motion.
Mechanics are the easiest thing for a hard worker to fix so I'm not saying this as something like "OMG hes awful" he just looks way more awkward rolling right than most righties look going left.
Well after watching the Chiefs/Raiders game last night, I feel we can go ahead and chalk those two games up as loses. I don't know what's been going on with our defense as of late, but after watching both of those teams move the ball downfield at will, they're going to light us up. Hate to sound like a pessimist but this is a predictions thread.
My 9-7 prediction seems about right, but that won't be enough to sneak into the playoffs. I see the Jets, Bengals, and Pats games as wins, Chiefs, Raiders, and Bills games as losses.
On the plus side, Tua is getting valuable experience and we'll benefit from that in 2021.
While they do look like losses we do not know who gets hurt or who gets covid before those games.
What's going on with our defense?
I had no issue with our defense yesterday. In the modern NFL if you give up 21 or less you should win every week if your offense doesnt poop the bed. They basically scored us 7 points again as well, giving the offense excellent field position.
Our run defense is simple. The offense isnt able to stay on the field AND we are missing Wilkins which shortens our viable depth.
Are you serious Alex? You had no issue with our defense yesterday?
The first two series, Miami's defense came to play getting the interception on Lock and forcing a 3 and out. That's defensive balling but after that?
On Denver's next possession, an 11 play touchdown drive...
Miami gives up a 15 yard pass on 3rd and 10
2nd and 8, Miami gives up a 20 yard run up the middle
3rd and 13, Miami lets LOCK scramble for 14 yards
1st and 10, Miami gives up a 9 yard run
2nd and 1, Miami gives up a 15 yard pass to the 1 yard line
Denver's second 9 play touchdown drive...
Denver, 3rd and 2...Miami gives up a 16 yard pass
1st and 10, Miami gives up a 9 yard run
3rd and 8, Miami is flagged for roughing the passer
2nd and 3, Miami gives up a 20 touchdown run
Miami trailing 13-20 after kicking a FG, what does the defense do?
1st and 10, Miami gives up a 25 yard pass
1st and 10, gives up a 9 yard run
2nd and 1, gives up a 20 yard run
Miami forced a fumble, as Denver was DIVING into the endzone for yet another touchdown! (It was initially called a TD, reversed on review) Great, but now Miami has to drive the length of the field, 99 yards with right at 4 minutes left in the game.
If anyone doesn't have a problem with how Miami's defense played, then you don't know defense. That's not a personal shot against you Alex, just an in general statement. Defenses can't give up big plays ever but especially when the situation is in your favor. When you have your opponent in 2nd and long and especially 3rd and long, you HAVE TO FORCE THE PUNT. You can NOT allow the offense to convert the first down and if you allow your opponent to convert that first down, when the situation is in YOUR favor your defense is weak.
It's not the number of points a defense allows to be scored, it's the number of yards...especially in 2nd and long and 3rd down situations that matter most. The more opportunities you allow your opponent to have, the greater the chances are they're going to score.
Now offensively, you won't get ANY argument from me. Tagovailoa played like CRAP on Sunday. He missed WIDE OPEN receivers, he held the ball entirely too long and as a result, was sacked 6 times. With Tua under center, Miami went 3 and out 5 times. That does your defense ZERO favors but when you have a ROOKIE as your starting quarterback, it's imperative for the defense to stop the opposing offense when the situation is in your favor.
Not to simplify anything you said, but "what was wrong" with our defense was a lack of oxygen from being on the field for so long. Playing in Denver is very tough and long story short, our offense wasn't on the field enough to let the D rest. They were exhausted....but they still played a pretty solid game overall in my opinion (20 points, multiple turnovers, etc.).
Who's fault is it? Tua and the offense...hence the benching. By the way, the big fellas (pointing at me here) get tired a lot faster in the high altitudes. That's likely a big part of our line struggles as well.
It isnt that its luck. It obviously takes skill, preparation and determination to make those plays.
They also rely on the other team being unable to handle pressure and making mistakes. I have nothing against our defense and they will be a huge part of our continued success, but it's not realistic to expect them to put up a score each week or put the ball inside the 30 for the offense.
In my opinion they did enough this week to win. They held Denver to 20 and put our offense in scoring range for our only TD. It's easy to point out how Denver ran the ball but that's what happens when your offense cant stay on the field, you dont have de9th up the middle and your opponent has two good backs.
This is where I’m at too. Only deviations would be NE if we can’t stop the run and Buf if they have their playoff spot locked in and decide to rest starters.
This is really the year of the rebuild where the team culture needs to get established. If that can happen the season is a win. Then the players they'll be acquiring in the next couple years can assimilate into it, and then with sufficient talent you're ready to compete at a high level.
Every game from here on out becomes very important for us if we are to do so. Losing to the Broncos was huge in terms of a playoff push. That should not have happened and any team that wants to be a playoff team can't let that happen. No way we lose to the Jets or Bengals is there??? I can see the Patriots game being a battle right down to the end. The Chiefs are going to mash us pretty good, not sure we can hang with the Bills offensively, and the Raiders always beat us it seems. I know if we don't make the playoffs, we will look back on the Denver loss as the reason why. I say a finish of 9-7 and no less than 8-8. At this point, we'll nee the right teams around us to lose if we are to get into the postseason. That Denver loss (while no big deal in terms of the future) was huge.
I was hoping for 7-8 wins coming into the season. Even if we don’t make the playoffs, it was still being relevant and seeing this team play great football for 5 weeks. I still think 9-10 wins is achievable but clearly after the Denver game, we have to get better faster.
Regardless of how this season plays out, I’m so very optimistic about our future. Flo has shown he can coach and motivate. We’ve got a ton of young talent. We’re going to have another infusion of great draft picks. It’s fun to think about where this team will be in 2 seasons.
I'm dead serious.
In the modern NFL you cant expect much more than holding the opposition to 20 points and setting your offense up for 7.
My argument isnt that they played a flawless amazing game. My argument is that what they did was enough to win with any offensive help.
I already explained the second half. We have no depth up the middle and our defenders were clearly tired and a step slower setting the edge which opened up big runs.
When you are tired AND playing from behind the types of situations you are highlighting are going to happen.
The Raiders are 3 and 12 against us in the last 15 games.
I'm still at 10-6.
Once we make the playoffs its a brand new ball game for getting into the super bowl.
I feel the trajectory of our final 3 or 4 games will determine EVERYTHING!
The Raiders' offense is very good this year. Defense is pretty shoddy, so it'll be an interesting matchup.
I don't disagree on the last point. The difference is that I think we'll be fortunate to win one of those games (New England because its at home and Flores is familiar with them), while likely getting blown out in the other three. Wouldn't surprise me at all if we got to 8-4, and then finished at 8-8.
Its absolutely progress, but we still have a long way to go.
You never know,many were not expecting the team to beat the Rams or the Cardinals.Hope the offense can pick it up though.