Three-game division leads aren’t supposed to earned by September, and definitely not by the Dolphins. However, this is a strange year where only the Rams and Patrick Mahomes look Super Bowl worthy. Everyone else (but the Dolphins) looks invitingly beatable, and that absolutely includes the Patriots. This 3-0 run may not equal Super Bowls or playoffs or a winning record, but that does not mean Miami isn’t still going into Foxboro as the better team. One team arrives with an offense struggling in the bottom ten in both scoring and yardage. Their QB is throwing to one of the worst WR groups in the league, with his efforts dropping to 6.1 yards/attempt and 202 yards/game. They are fourth-worst in 3rd down conversions (28.6%). Oh, and the rushing game hasn’t scored a TD yet. It’s an offensive roster full of injury designations, suspensions, substance abuse, and off-the-field drama. It reads like a summary of Miami’s decade of offensive futility, but these are your 2018 Pats. While the offense may seem familiar, Miami fans could have trouble recalling a defense as bad as this Patriots’ group of bent-over-turtles. They are allowing the fourth-most 406 yards/game, the third-most 143.3 rushing yards/game, the third-worst 48.7% third down conversion rate, the tenth-worst 5.8 yards/play, and they own the second-lowest sack rate (3.6%). The stats back up the eyeball test that reasons they struggle with speed and creating pressure. There are some trends we could see continue or change to determine the outcome of this game: *Both teams start very slow, each only scoring once so far in the first quarter, and then amp it up in the Q2 (combined 47 points). The biggest difference is Miami’s defense has an average of 4.3 points/first half and NE’s 12.5. *Both teams are within the top six least penalized teams. *Miami is enjoying the league’s best starting field position at 35 yard line, and NE’s opponents are starting at the 31 yard line (#27). *NE has only surrendered ONE rushing touchdown; they have scored zero. *NE has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to QBs this year. *NE defense is LAST in dealing with YAC. *Third downs give both teams trouble on both sides of the ball: MIA Offense 32.3%(#27) Defense 43.2% (#24), NE Off 28.6% (#29) Def 48.8% (#30). *Both have top ten red zone defenses, only two of 8 teams to have a less than 50% TD success rate. *Does anybody want the ball? Miami is #30 in time-of-possession, and NE is #28. *Miami’s secondary is allowed a league-best 65.6 passer rating, with 7 INTs and 2 TDS allowed. NE is at 93.9 (#17), with 3 INTs and 7 TDS allowed. * Miami enjoys a 10/5 TD ratio and +4 turnovers, whereas NE is at 6/8 and +0. Ultimately, anything can happen when these two teams meet; they bring out the best and worst in each other. Three games into this young season, one team is outperforming the other. Surely, recent history with the Dolphins and Patriots tells us that the better team only wins about 3/5 of the time, but this weekend -and perhaps all year- it is statistically obvious that the better team is now Miami.
Yeah, I'm really hopeful for a win, but I were arguing the other way (for NE) I'd point out that since 2001 we are 2-15 at Foxboro!! https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/game_query.cgi?tm1=mia&tm2=nwe&yr=all Our last win up there was when Pennington was our QB in 2008. Pennington ended up ranked #2 in passer rating that year. This will be a real turning point for the Dolphins (and possibly Patriots) if we win. Can't wait!
Great write up! The one thing you missed though was that Tannehill is 3rd in QB ratings largely because of our ridiculous speed on offense. Grant and Wilson have been sensational so far and our run game is just as explosive. NE is great at taking away your top weapons but rarely do teams do this many things well. I just don't see how NE matches up with us on defense.
