Week 3; Broncos at Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins are 6.5-point home favorites over the Denver Broncos, per Caesars, which is about right, considering both teams’ records. The Dolphins are 2-0 with two road wins. The Broncos are looking for their first win of the season after two losses in the Mile High City. But this has all the trappings of a trap game — and there’s one major reason why: Russell Wilson no longer stinks.

Miami Dolphins To Face Revitalized Russell Wilson
Wilson and the Broncos have scored 49 points in their first two games and were an uncalled defensive pass interference away from forcing overtime in Week 2 despite trailing 35-24 at the two-minute warning.

The Broncos are 0-2 with a point differential of -3. The Dolphins are 2-0 with a point differential of +9. That’s how small the margin of error is in the NFL.

And if Wilson continues to play like he has so far under Sean Payton, they should be in almost every game they play.

“His resume speaks for itself and the things he’s been able to do in this league,” said Dolphins defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. “He presents a lot of challenges, just being able to obviously be great in the pocket, run when he needs to, a great leader and things like that.

“I’ve gotten to play him once in my career and he was able to do some pretty impressive things throwing the ball, running, launching it down the field, and different things like that,” Wilkins added. “I’m excited for the challenge that he brings and looking forward to it, always.”

This is just the fourth time the Dolphins have faced Wilson and the first since 2020. Wilson has won two of the three previous meetings with Miami, completing 69.2% of his passes for five touchdowns, two interceptions, a passer rating of 101.5, and an 8.1 yards per attempt average. But in 2022, his first year in Denver, Wilson looked nothing like a quarterback capable of putting up those stats. The marriage of Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett was doomed for the start, and his career bottomed out as a result.

Wilson ranked outside the top 10 in any major passing category and was 27th in QBR (38.7) and passer rating (83.9), 31st in completion percentage (60.5), 35th in adjusted EPA/play (.01), and 38th in completion percentage over expectation (-1.1).

It was so bad, it was almost inexplicable. But there might be an explanation: The coaching he got was brutal. Enter Payton, the longtime Saints coach who is back in the NFL after taking the 2022 season off. The change has done Wilson good (at least so far).

Through two weeks, he’s

• Third in TDs (5) and CPOE (9.3)

• Fourth in passer rating (108.5)

• Seventh in adjusted EPA/play (.22)

• 10th in YPA(7.3)

• 11th in QBR (61.5)

• 12th in completion percentage (68.2)

As a result, he has the full attention of a Dolphins locker room that, aside from a couple of greybeards, grey up watching Wilson do magical things on the football field.

“Russell Wilson is a household name,” said Dolphins safety Jevon Holland. “He’s one of the best. My mom loves the Seahawks, and I grew up watching the Seahawks, and now he’s on the Broncos and I get to play him. For me, it’s cool I get to study a quarterback of that caliber.

“The same as studying Aaron Rodgers like I did, and Tom Brady like I did. I’m excited for the game. Each team has different challenges and I know the Broncos have a hell of a team. I’m excited to play them. I got friends on that team. I’m looking forward to it.”

Mr Unliiiiimited meet Mr Unprescedented Tua.

Revenge spots for Tua, Fangio, Chubb and Butch Barry who was absolutely demolished by the Denver media and players on his way out.

Dolphins win big and don't hold anything back.

Weren't we rumored to be considering trading a first rounder to New Orleans to get Payton a couple of years ago? Thought the exact rumor was Ross wanted Payton and Brady together. That move would have been so Dolphins and I would have bet money it would fail.

"Pennington's Limp Arm wrote:

Home opener at Hard Rock; 1 PM EST Sunday.

Early week Vegas lines
Miami -6.5
O/U 48.5

Weather is looking favorable for the homeside;

High of 88 degrees at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday for the visitors from the Rocky Mountains to enjoy pic.twitter.com/e7GyKxnfTw

— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) September 20, 2023

Some bulletin board material for this matchup; Last year Broncos coach Payton thought Bridgewater would take Tua’s job;

🧾👀 @SeanPayton #FinsUp #BroncosCountry pic.twitter.com/OGEOkmSskE

— Dolphins Receipts (@FinsReceipts) September 20, 2023

Broncos are 0-2 and will no doubt be a desperate/dangerous team this week. But on paper this matchup looks good for us. Garrapalo and Sam Howell both had Ratings over 105 against this Broncos defense.

Also revenge spots for Chubb and Fangio.

Should get the first Injury report of the week later today.
Fins up !!

I think Peyton came out after week 1 or 2 and said he was wrong about Tua.

For those of you going, it can really make a difference to a team and their energy if we can be loud as hell.

forget those people who tell you to sit down, stand when were on Defense and scream your ass off.

How bout some Tua chants, even better MVP chants..:)

Same for Tyreek Hill.

Ross and co did their job to change the structure of the stadium so we fans could impact the game with our energy, so lets do this, arrive early, get in those seats before kickoff, come back after halftime so if we have to take the field at the start of the 3rd quarter the team has fans in the stands to make some noise.

Let get this revenge game for Fangio, and Tua..Remember that clip of Sean payton sitting on fellow hater cowturd's couch talking like Teddy dirtwater should be starting over Tua last year, maybe we should put that clip on the big screens for Tua to see :)

child please, stick to coaching buddy, cause you definitely ****ed up on that evaluation.

Lets kick their ass man!!

I anticipate the Dolphins putting up a 40 burger on this game.

Justin Simmons their best player did not practice today

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

I anticipate the Dolphins putting up a 40 burger on this game.

I doubt it with Waddle sitting out the game.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

I doubt it with Waddle sitting out the game.

If Waddle is out, that's going to stink but with the entirety of the talent we have...and how terrible the Broncos are?

I still see a 40 burger!

I can see Berrios having a big day Sunday with Waddle out.

Looking forward to how Tua plays with Waddle out. As I said in another thread, I think Tua is less dependent on both Hill and Waddle being out there than he was last year. We’ll see.

Either way, 3-0 coming up! It’s the Bills game that will really show who the king of the AFC East is but that will have to wait a week.

I expect to win this game, but no game is a gimme, especially when you root for Miami, lol.

Broncos offense looks solid, their defense not so much. Should be a win at home opener.

"Tuanon4Life wrote:

I can see Berrios having a big day Sunday with Waddle out.

Who said Waddle is out?

"dolphin25 wrote:

Who said Waddle is out?

Nothing official yet but he's still in concussion protocol.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/miami-dolphins-practice-and-injury-report-jaylen-waddles-availability-very-much-in-doubt/

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

I anticipate the Dolphins putting up a 40 burger on this game.

If the offence doesn't shoot itself in the foot a couple of times against both the Chargers and the Patriots they would have put up 40. Very good chance it happens this week.

The Commanders have a very good defense and the Broncos laid 33 on them. I expect they'll put at least 24 or so on us. I think it's going to be closer than it should be because of Waddle being out. If we win (because any given Sunday...) I expect it to be a less than a TD score, something like 27-24, maybe 30-24.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

The Commanders have a very good defense and the Broncos laid 33 on them. I expect they'll put at least 24 or so on us. I think it's going to be closer than it should be because of Waddle being out. If we win (because any given Sunday...) I expect it to be a less than a TD score, something like 27-24, maybe 30-24.

With Hill also hurt or slowed down, this could be a little more difficult.

"Finatik wrote:

With Hill also hurt or slowed down, this could be a little more difficult.

Yeah, we're gonna try to run it on them I think. Our best bet for a high score for us in this game is Russ turning over the ball.

"Finatik wrote:

With Hill also hurt or slowed down, this could be a little more difficult.

I wouldn't worry too much about vets resting early in the week. He will be fine.

This is pretty cool:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/tua-tagovailoa-on-verge-of-setting-nfl-record-with-this-stunning-streak-against-super-bowl-winning-coaches/

If Tua wins against Denver he'll set the record for most consecutive wins against SB winning coaches, at 10.

"cbrad wrote:

This is pretty cool:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/tua-tagovailoa-on-verge-of-setting-nfl-record-with-this-stunning-streak-against-super-bowl-winning-coaches/

If Tua wins against Denver he'll set the record for most consecutive wins against SB winning coaches, at 10.

Wow, that is really cool. Who would have thought it was only 10?

"cbrad wrote:

This is pretty cool:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/tua-tagovailoa-on-verge-of-setting-nfl-record-with-this-stunning-streak-against-super-bowl-winning-coaches/

If Tua wins against Denver he'll set the record for most consecutive wins against SB winning coaches, at 10.

I like the Belichick stat. Tua is 5-0 against him. The only other QB's with 5 wins in the regular season against him is Peyton Manning who is 5-10 and Josh Allen who is 5-4.