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Week 3 - Becoming Contenders

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by keithjackson, Sep 21, 2013.

  1. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is a huge week as we play the best team on our schedule until next week. The Falcons may very well be the better squad, with more talent and experience playing together for 5 years in the same system, but these Miami Dolphins are proving early this season that they can beat anybody. Atlanta should be scared for three reasons:


    1. A SYSTEM IS BORN
    The Dolphins are a solid, not flashy, football team in every phase of the game so far. What has caught my eye so far is that it finally looks like we are winning because of a system that is in place, and not because of anything spectacular that the players are doing. Last year it seemed we needed reggie bush to breaks five tackles en route to the end zone or cameron wake to channel a monster on a pivotal third down in order to win. In 2013, the players are in the right place at the right time and it all seems uncomplicated, without the needs for heroics by anyone other than the coaching staff. look no further than ryan tannehill, who with his intelligent, low risk, decision making, has thrown only one INT all season/preseason, a pass that bounced off one of his WRs hands. He is not trying to rely on his athleticism, but trusting the system. He is the Anti-Luck to me, because I have not seen him able to make a miracle out of nothing, like the scrappy, scrambling, brilliant off-the-top-of-head Colt. However, he is more of a robot. He can make any throw and do any task that Philbin dials up, and if it was a good coaching call, then the play will be successful. And so far Joe Philbin looks to be more than capable. At this point, this young group of men is Joe Philbin's team, and looking at the job he has done in his second year, it is easy to say he is the single most important and talented man in that locker. What we see on the field is a coach putting his players in the best chance to succeed, doing things that he knows they can succeed at, because as he said, "football is easy." Despite no examples freakish athleticism, perhaps that's why sometime during the Colts game I realize that I wasn't watching and waiting for the Fins not to screw up, but I was watching and waiting for them to make a play, because I believe in the system.

    2. HIDDEN YARDAGE
    This year the NFL seems to have more close games than ever decided by a score or less. A huge reason we are 2-0 is because of the focus Philbin and Ireland have placed on hidden yardage. That's what good teams do. Just ask ATL, who's Special Teams are just as good as ours. In fact, this weekend may be the best combo of kickers and punters all year. Both kickers have made all their FGs and PAs, and both punters are arguably in the top five. Special mention must be given to Caleb Sturgis, who made every kick in preseason too, all perfectly down the middle with room to spare, and who seems to be money anywhere under 60 yards, because his ability to kick mostly touchbacks has made him our ROTY two weeks in. Week 2 also saw us surrender zero penalties, which very well could have been the difference in the game; the team is currently tied for 8th least penalty yards. Finally, although not startling, the influence of an offseason of emphasizing turnovers can be felt, especially in the secondary. What could these three improvements alone have done for a last year when we lost five games by one score (including three losses by 3 points - two during OT)?

    However this week we may not see this advantage, as special teams and penalties seem to be a push with the Falcons, and predicting TOs is semi-impossible. However I do see Miami coming out on top in this category because, while not quite hidden yardage, the Dolphins are doing a fantastic job of picking the right times and places to have their successes, whether its a Philip Wheeler sack or Lamar Miller 8 yard run. Despite being outgained in yardage over the first two weeks, the Dolphins have scored more points because of a strong showing on both sides of the ball on third down, the OFF is 6th (14/30, 47%) and the DEF is 4th (8/29, 28%) in the league. (Incidentally, we have stonewalled 3/5 4th down attempts, also near the NFL ceiling.) We are also finishing games strong, making probably the best halftime adjustments of any team, outscoring opponents 24-6 in the second half. Ryan Tannehill's QBR jumps from 86.2 to 103.6 in the second half, whereas ATL's drops from 122.5 to 89.8. (Tannehill is also the 5th best QB in the 4th quarter with a 100.8 QBR.) Miami's choice of 'where' it succeeds is almost as good as their 'when', as they currently are one of the league's best red zone teams, particularly on offense where they have scored TDs in 4 out of 5 trips. Ryan Tannehill has the #1 NFL QBR in the Red Zone at 158.3, compared to ATL's abysmal 61.1 (#30).

    3. INTANGIBLES
    This is not a regular home opener. This offseason has seen the largest combination of FA and draft acquisitions, and a marketing campaign, the Dolphins have ever seen. Now coming home with two road wins, this fan base is foaming at the mouth to have something to cheer about. The players are ready, they are confident, and they know that a win will mean validation as a true contender. The Falcons on the other hand, will just feel like they are beating a team they should beat as they look forward to NE next week. You get the feeling that this is a much bigger and more important game for the Phins. MIA also has unpredictability on their side, as this is almost a completely different team than last year's and the no one really knows what to expect from them with only two week's of film. Finally, and you hate see it, the injury bug has crawled in the Falcon's ear and died. With a dropoff at RB/FB and OT, as well as losing some key defensive heart and soul, the Dolphins are catching a strong team at their weakest. (Also, a little rain will only help the Dolphin's further.)

    THE ATLANTA FALCONS - MATCHUPS
    There are some fun matchups this week, from the Jerry brothers going at it to Grimes and Clabo facing their former team, so lets look at a couple and figure out what we might expect:

    Strength V Strength - Matt Ryan is playing like a man on fire, with both a completion percentage (71.6%) and a passer rating (107.9) ranked in the top four. With an amazing WR/TE and an inability to run, Matt is going to throw for a ton of yards, and a ton of completions, and we will probably see another 100 yard WR and 80 yard TE against us. That is fine for the Dolphins, who an opportunistic bunch with a bend don't break mentality. They may give up a lot of yards, but they aren't going to surrender a lot of points, and they are going to make life a nightmare for the ATL QB playing behind a shaky offensive line. With a secondary already with 4 INTs and a DLine creating pressure almost half the time, including 9 sacks, its not surprising the Dolphins rank 4th in opponent passer rating (62.4) AND opponent completion percentage (53.1%). This may come down to which weak link breaks more, the rag tag ATL Oline or the brand new MIA secondary. If that's the case, advantage MIAMI.

    Weakness v. Weakness These are two of the most disappointing running games in the NFL through two weeks, and its a toss up as to who is worse. MIA (60.5 yards/game) has a dreadful 2.4/ypa. ATL (62 yards/game) is down to unproven backups. To make matters worse, both teams have solid run defenses, with a slight edge going to the Falcons mainly because of their 3.1 ypa v MIA's 4.6. Still, I want to say MIA will have the better day rushing the football. Lamar Miller will be the best RB on the field this Sunday, and while ATL is extremely stout up the middle, it can be beat by outside runs that the speedy Miller can exploit. Furthermore, the Falcons have the fewest rushing attempts in the league, whereas the Dolphins have the fewest rushing attempts against them in the league. So while I don't see either team doing much, I give the advantage to MIAMI.

    Falcon to Watch - Tony Gonzalez The weakness of our defense for years has been covering TEs, and unfortunately this season doesn't look any different so far. This week we get to see if switching out our LBs (and drafting Dion Jordan) was enough of an improvement over our ability to cover the likes of Tony Gonzalez. Good luck. Advantage, ATLANTA.

    Dolphin to Watch - Brian Hartline The Dolphins can have success throwing against a pass defense that is giving up the 3rd most yards a game in the air (346.5) and a passer rating of 97.9, allthewhile notching only 2 sacks and 2 INT despite an average of 45 pass attempts per game. While Mike Wallace may be matched up against a rookie catching enough balls to keep the defense honest, and Charles Clay and Brandon Gibson take turns controlling the middle of the field, our best WR is Brian Hartline. Tour the ATL message board and his name is laughed at, which mirrors the lack of respect he gets from fans around the league. If this game indeed becomes a shootout, I put my money on the man who runs perfect routes and gives Tannehill high percentage passes to complete. Then again, you never know who is going to get their name called to stepup for this team on Sunday, but you can count on someone lighting up this suspect pass defense. Advantage, MIAMI.

    PREDICTION
    Its easy to sort of telegraph how this game will go as the two teams' strengths and weaknesses align to form a script. If the Fins lose, it'll be because of turnovers. However, if they play clean football, I see it following the same storyline of the first two weeks. The Falcon's will outgain the Fins by a ton of yards, mostly all through the air, but won't be able to run a lick. They will get into the red zone and shoot themselves in the foot against a MIA Def in the right place at the right time. After two solid but unspectacular weeks, the MIA DLine proves why its the strength of this team and will have a breakout game terrorizing a one dimensional ATL offense whose protection of Matt Ryan goes from bad to worse. On offense, Tannehill has a big day, excelling when he needs to in the red zone and in the fourth quarter. Ryan's chemistry with Jones, White and Gonzalez are good enough to keep this game within a score, but Lamar Miller finds enough running room on one big play to create enough balance for the Fins to celebrate 3-0 with their home crowd. FINAL: MIAMI 27, ATLANTA 23
     
  2. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Thing about the specials is one team will win that battle, it should be us.

    All an even matchup means is no natural advantage, that merely means performance and athleticism will win the battle.
     
  3. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Great read. Thanks !
     
  4. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Would love to see Brandon Gibson get more involved this week as well.

    I think Lamar has his biggest day yet.
     
  5. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Precise weather outlook for 2maro??
     
  6. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    4pm weather

    86 degrees
    67% humidity
    20% chance of rain
    10mph wind
     
    djphinfan and xphinfanx like this.
  7. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wow, that low humidity, I'm hopin for a beautiful day, no rain..I want energy in the building and for some reason the first drop sends dolphin fans scattering for cover.
     
  8. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Because in FL, with rain comes lightning, which is very bad in a stadium that's taller than everything else. You have to understand, FL is the dangerous state in the US in regards to lightning.

     
  9. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    One of the best write ups I've seen.
     
    djphinfan likes this.
  10. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    It is... What should I eat for dinner?
     
  11. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Kudos on the score prediction, KJ.
     
    MikeHoncho likes this.
  12. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    We're not worthy. We are just. Not. Worthy.
     
    Bpk likes this.
  13. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    Godly stuff. Where can I buy the Saints game write up?
     

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