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Week 11 - Dolphins @ J E T S -Black Friday game

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Finatik, Nov 21, 2023.

  1. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    The Miami Dolphins moved to 7-3 through Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders this past Sunday. It was not Miami’s typical offensive explosion that pushed them over the top during the game, but rather a suffocating defensive performance that shut down much of what the Raiders were attempting to do. Miami came away with the 20-13 win - good enough for the straight-up victory, but not enough to cover what was a 14-point line ahead of the game.

    How do the oddsmakers see the Dolphins performing in Week 12 when they meet the New York Jets for the first of two games this year? New York fell 32-6 to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football, dropping to a 4-6 record for the season. The oddsmakers opened the line for Miami and New York in Week 12 with the Dolphins clearly favored in the contest.

    For Week 12, the DraftKings Sportsbook opening lines had Miami favored by 7 points, a line that almost immediately moved to 7.5 points, then shifted again on Monday morning to an 8-point spread. The moneyline has Miami listed at -375 and the Jets at +295.

    The point total for the game is 41 combined points.

    Miami is in control of the AFC East as the season moves into the final six weeks. The Jets are falling out of the playoff picture and are watching their pre-season expectations collapse. The storyline surrounding the Dolphins this year is that they beat the teams with losing records and lose to teams with a winning record. Whether that is an accurate portrayal of who the Dolphins will be when the season - and the playoffs - come to a close we will have to wait to see. In Week 12, the season-long storyline does not matter - Miami has an opportunity to beat up on a struggling Jets team, keeping a losing team from rebounding and finding hope in the AFC playoff picture and the AFC East divisional standings. The oddsmakers seem to think the Dolphins are poised to do exactly that.
     
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  2. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Spread is 9.5 now
     
  3. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Wow...I'm really surprised. What do the oddsmakers know that we don't? The home team typically gets an automatic 3 so Miami with a 9.5 is crazy to me.

    I get that the Jets offense can't beat a Pop Warner team, but that defense is scary. I'm hoping that their defense has just thrown in the towel at this point and have said F U to the offense and realize it's not worth risking injury playing all out for a losing season.

    Jets are banged up after their game against the Bills. Which is good for us.
     
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  4. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Their offense is just unbelievably bad, and our own defense is now essentially equal to theirs with respect to yardage, allowing 35 more yards through ten games. Our run defense is also signifigantly better than theirs, we've allowed almost exactly the same amount of passing yardage after the catch, and we have more sacks.

    So when both teams have a good defense, while one has the #1 offense in the league and the other is #31 and starting a new QB, the line shouldn't be that surprising.
     
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  5. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    It's pretty easy. Their offense is historically bad. The new quarterback is bad. The defense isn't as good as everyone makes it out to be. And, their coaching is an absolute joke.

    The Jets are about ready to implode and I hope the Dolphins set it off.
     
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  6. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I really hope you're right, but it's a divisional game and anything can happen. Too many times in history I've seen where a divisional rival, who is supposedly much inferior to the team they're playing, win the game. I don't think this will be an easy game and will come down to the turnover battle.

    If Miami wins the turnover battle:

    Miami 23
    Jets 9

    If Miami loses the turnover battle:

    Miami 17
    Jets 10
     
  7. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Points is at 41? I'm taking the under :chuckle:

    If our offence stops turning the ball over inside our 35 yard line this horrible Jets offence is going to struggle to put up 10 points. The front 4 will be able to get a ton of pressure without any help as their OL is horrific, Ramsey has basically taken away one side of the field, I'll be surprised if they even throw at him so just keep an eye on Wilson and they will struggle to move the ball.
     
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  8. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Division game, I think anything can happen. As of right now, I think this game and our week 17 game against the hated Ravens are two of the most important games remaining on our schedule. This is a must win game for us in my opinion. We have an opportunity to start running away with the division if we can take this game. Buffalo has a mountain of a schedule remaining against teams that can beat them. Hopefully, the Eagles do us another favor this weekend by beating them. Maybe the Raiders can pull off the upset against the Chiefs? It would be nice to see the Chargers beat the Ravens as well. Getting things like that to go our way are bigger than most think. The main thing though is that we continue to get wins against the teams we're supposed to beat. We should beat the Jets on Friday. It won't be easy, don't expect a huge scoring output either. Some of ya'll are gonna cry when Tua doesn't throw for 500 yards and 5 TD's against a very good defense and that's fine. We come out with a win and i'll be happy. If the final score is 10-6 and we win, I'll be happy. This will not be an easy game for us. If we somehow lose this game, I'll be concerned because it's such a tight race right now in the league. We absolutely need to win this game.
     
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  9. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Exactly. Win this and there is a very real chance we are 11-3 going into the Dallas game.

    I'm expecting this to be a very tight, frustrating game. Would be huge if Hunt is back for this, the running game is really struggling right now with the backup backup guards in there.
     
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  10. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    If Hunt and Achane are a go it would do wonders for our offense. They're going to need a great game plan and play calling from MM.
     
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  11. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I agree with the majority here, I'd never bet against the Jets playing hard and being competitive against us. I don't think they have enough firepower to beat us unless it happens through defensive turnovers.

    However, I'm expecting a blowout close to the point spread, maybe 37-3 Miami or something like that.
     
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  12. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I really hope you're right. It's so much more relaxing to watch the Dolphins with a huge lead. lol
     
  13. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, it opens up the playbook on both sides of the ball, and lets Ramsey/X thrive in ball-hawk mode. That's the game I'm hoping to see as well.
     
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  14. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Opposite for me, I'm expecting a dogfight and to see the offence stall a few times through their own errors. Until they prove they can play a clean game on the road I'm going to assume they will find ways to kill 3 or 4 drives and keep the game relatively close.

    I still expect us to win but more like 20-9 or something like that. I'm assuming it's going to be a very noisy game, it's at a very weird time (is that 3PM eastern on Friday? It's 8pm GMT, what the hell) so I guess it's a national holiday Friday? There are going to be lots of drunk, hungover from the day before, obnoxious New Yorkers there.
     
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  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I largely agree- maybe 3-4 drives do stall. But with the Jets offense, we'll probably see 10-12 drives? That could be enough for 50+ points if Hill and Waddle manage to shake loose in the open field.

    Last week, we played down to Oakland and left a lot of points on the field. I think we improve this week and punch it in a few more times.
     
  16. Tuanon4Life

    Tuanon4Life Well-Known Member

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    31-10 Miami
     
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  17. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    I‘m feeling queasy about this one too. I‘m quite happy Wilson is not playing and that their O-line is more beat up then ours, that will definitely help.
     
  18. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    17-10 Miami with a defensive score by each team.
     
  19. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  20. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I said in another thread that if neither team turns the ball over, I think we'll win something along the lines of 24-9.

    If we can get to +2 or better in turnover margin, then it could look like a blowout on paper due to short fields and punching it in.

    If we're reckless or unlucky with the ball, then it could be one of those games that looks a lot closer than it really was. Something like 18-12.
     
  21. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I'd much prefer Wilson be starting for them as their is tape on him. Last year I believe Purdy played his first game against us and he was lights out.
     
  22. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I'm opposite, I wish Wilson was playing. He is terrible.
     
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  23. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    They don't have the 49ers coaching staff. And our defense staff is a ton better now too.
     
  24. Tuanon4Life

    Tuanon4Life Well-Known Member

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    I was hoping to see Wilson get totally annihilated by our defense. I live in NJ and hearing the local media blast him every week has been entertaining to say the least.
     
  25. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Because Purdy is good. Tim Boyle is bad.
     
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  26. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Worse then Tim Boyle? Better that guy then Wilson…
     
  27. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    We have film on Wilson. As far as I know nothing on Boyle, but I do recall unknown QB's playing well in their first start.
     
  28. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    How do you know? Did you know Purdy was good before he played us last year?
     
  29. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    He‘s on the Jest because he‘s friends with Rodgers and as far as I know that is the only reason he’s on that team.
     
  30. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    It's not his first start. He's been in the league for 6 years now.
     
  31. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    agree he looks terrible, but I would rather play against known terrible with plenty of film.
     
  32. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Well with Wilson there is still „hope“ (for Jest fans) and he does have some skills the other guy is a jag….But I get your point.
     
  33. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Boyle has started games in the NFL. 3TDs, 9INTs.
     
  34. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Here's something to know about him. He's in year six as an undrafted free agent and so far, he's thrown 3 TDs and 9 INTs. His most recent start was in 2021 with Detroit (3 TD's/6 picks that year).
     
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  35. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Jet fans have nothing and I mean nothing to cheer for so their not gonna be frothing like normal
     
  36. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    There is going to be a lot of Dolphins fans there on Friday.
     
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  37. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    I think the under on points is a very safe bet.
     
  38. Ryan

    Ryan Member

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    I was supposed to go to this game :(
     
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  39. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    Please do.
     
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  40. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

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    They are still hoping that Rodgers is going to come in riding to the rescue and lead them on a historic run.


    They also think the Raiders are going to trade Davante Adams to them.
     

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