1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Walter Football: Fins 11-5 & legitimate Super Bowl contender Super Bowl contender

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by GMJohnson, Jul 10, 2010.

  1. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    Walter Football: Fins 11-5 & legitimate Super Bowl contender

    http://walterfootball.com/offseason2010mia.php

    Outside of Miami, he's definitely in the minority on this one. I happen to agree with Walt, but I'm glad we're flying under the radar. Then again, he also says the Jets are Super Bowl contenders so what does he know?
     
    Bpk, gafinfan, Disnardo and 1 other person like this.
  2. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

    52,652
    25,565
    113
    Nov 13, 2009
    With a grain of salt
     
    GMJohnson likes this.
  3. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

    38,949
    20,033
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    Pembroke Pines, FL
    Stopped reading right here. Arm strength is irrelevant. It's a fallback evaluation when you have no idea what to look for at the QB position. If you can throw the ball 10 yards with reasonable velocity then that's all you need in the post-Bill Walsh NFL.
     
  4. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,648
    67,540
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    What I like about this offense is 1, that it's an offense that was built from scratch, and 2, we learned how to execute and move the ball without a Brandon Marshall talent on the field...So it's not like we were bad and were hoping for the one player to fix it,{like the jet's} were just adding a special talent, so the offense and the talent running it, now has more room to operate and display their talent, everything should be easier for them to get much better.
     
  5. FinsAreLife

    FinsAreLife Well-Known Member

    2,824
    762
    113
    Dec 7, 2007
    Im certainly pumped for this year. Its been three years in the making now for sparano/ireland/parcells and i think starting this year we will be seeing the results, consistently. We may not reach the big game this season but this is the season we start to truly contend by making the playoffs and getting our first playoff win in a looooonng time.
     
    PhinsRock and GMJohnson like this.
  6. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

    27,364
    31,261
    113
    Apr 6, 2008
    Nice write up. I don't agree with every thing they said but it was decently (not perfectly) researched and made some reasonable conclusions. Obviously, like any other prediction it's not worth much. But I do find reasoned analysis like this to be more valuable and enjoyable to read than most of the drivel that's out there.
     
  7. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

    52,652
    25,565
    113
    Nov 13, 2009
    Agreed. It's this same school of thought that rates Jamarcus Russell the best thing since sliced bread on NFL draft night.
     
    GMJohnson likes this.
  8. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    Arm strength is not the end all be all, but to say its irrelevant is a major stretch. Chad P had some serious limitations on what he could do as a QB, and most of it had to do with his arm.
     
  9. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

    38,949
    20,033
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    Pembroke Pines, FL
    In the modern NFL, 20 yards is considered a deep pass. Pennington is more than capable of completing a 20 yard pass. Hell, he threw deeper than that a surprising amount of times in 2008.

    But more to the point, Pennington's 2008 YPA was 7.30. Henne's 2009 YPA was 6.03. Noodle arm Pennington threw deeper than cannon arm Henne, and Pennington won more games in 2008 than Henne did in 2009.

    So yeah, arm strength is irrelevant. It's a fallback evaluation that talking heads use when they have no idea what to say about a QB. JaMarcus Russell has amazing arm strength: he's now sitting in prison for mixing up purple drank.
     
    Puka-head, GMJohnson and MikeHoncho like this.
  10. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    Agree. More than anything, BM gives us balance and flexibility. We can pass to set up the run or run to set up the pass. We can expose weak secondaries or weak front sevens equally, depending on our opponent. We can throw long, intermediate, short, or screens.

    Our offense isn't flashy, but there are no weaknesses. My only worry is injuries and how will CHenne do in his second year. We led the league in max protect passing last year, but I envision a more aggressive passing game this year. Let's see how CHenne does once the training wheels are taken off.
     
  11. cowboy82nd

    cowboy82nd Member

    92
    15
    8
    May 21, 2010
    I disagree. You don't need the strongest arm in the world but you need some strength. In our playoff lost to the Ravens, Ed Reed was about 15 yards away from where he caught the ball, from where he was when Pennington let go of the ball. Chad has NO arm strength and it hurt us. He had to lob everything that was over 15 yards and you can't do that in the NFL.
     
    DOLPHAN1 and GMJohnson like this.
  12. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

    38,949
    20,033
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    Pembroke Pines, FL
    Most passes don't travel 15 yards in the first place.
     
  13. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    Not really. If your'e throwing a 20 yard out route its about a 40-50 yard throw depending on the hash. NFL defenses design coverage schemes on things like that. Inside or outside leverage, how deep the safeties drop or where do the corners squat. If youre a CB playing vs Chad P, you know he cant make that deep out throw in time to avoid a PBU or INT so you don't even worry about it. Arm strength matters a whole lot. More time for the WRs to catch the ball, protect themselves and turn upfield. Less seperation needed by the WRs. Less time for defenders to react to passes and reach the WRs. Accuracy is just as important, but to say that either one is irrelevant is :no:.

    The YPA numbers are nice, but the conclusion is a little off IMO. ChadP is a check down Charlie who completes a lot (67%) of his passes but doesnt threaten the defense vertically. Henne threatens the entire field, sideline to sideline, from either hash. CBs arent able to cheat b/c CHenne can make all of the throws. CHenne's YPA is lower primarily because his completion % was lower (60%). It had nothing to do with him not pushing the ball down field.

    Jamarcus Russell may be the poster child for arm strength not leading to success. But again, the conclusion there shouldn't be that arm strength doesn't matter. It should be that arm strength wont overcome a lack of work ethic and overall QB skill. That I can agree with completely.
     
  14. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    Which passes are those, screens? Its normally 5-7 yds between the QB and the LOS, add in the yds past the LOS as well as the lateral/horizontal distance and the only 15 yd or less throws are screens and RB check downs. A five yd curl route can travel 20-30 yds depending on the hash so its a little more complicated than just counting from the LOS to the yd line where the pass lands.
     
  15. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

    38,949
    20,033
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    Pembroke Pines, FL
    This would be an appropriate conclusion only if JaMarcus Russell was the only person to ever play QB in the NFL. But you can go through history and see a list of championship winners who didn't have great arm strength, and guys who never won a ring who had great arm strength.

    Just as an example, Dan Marino had better arm strength than Joe Montana. Joe Montana has the rings. Philip Rivers has better arm strength than Tom Brady. Tom Brady has the rings.

    Arm strength is just not relevant. The NFL doesn't feature the deep vertical pass anymore.

    It's not nearly as complicated as you say, because WCO principles tend to dominate modern NFL offenses. Short drops, quick reads, fast releases. That's why intelligent QBs are so much more successful than physical freak QBs: you've got to be able to mentally process the play, and the plays as designed aren't very demanding in terms of arm strength.

    Just to illustrate, Peyton Manning, the contemporary demigod of rocket arm physics, has a career YPA of 7.7. Over his career, he attempted to throw the ball a mere 0.4 yards further than Chad Pennington attempted in 2008. So much for the prevalence of firing passes downfield.
     
  16. cowboy82nd

    cowboy82nd Member

    92
    15
    8
    May 21, 2010
    You're right. But the ones that do, can't be lobbed.
     
    Bpk likes this.
  17. cowboy82nd

    cowboy82nd Member

    92
    15
    8
    May 21, 2010

    Dan did have a stronger arm than Joe, BUT Joe didn't have a noodle arm either. Joe Montana didn't have a gun, but he could still make all the throws. Let's not get to the point where we are saying that the strongest arm in football wins. Not true at all. But you still need arm strength to make the throws. Chad Pennington doesn't have that. Give me Chad Pennington with Chad Henne arm and we are all set. Pennington doesn't have the arm to play in the NFL anymore. It is what it is.
     
    GMJohnson likes this.
  18. PhinsRock

    PhinsRock Premium Member Luxury Box

    Good read, as was said - better than a lot of stuff that is prevalent this time of year. Don't agree with all of it, nor disagree with most. Thanks for the link, we're starved for this kind of reading now. :up:
     
    GMJohnson likes this.
  19. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

    30,224
    36,965
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Jersey
    I wouldn't say it's irrelevant. If you have a strong armed quarterback who can make all the throws like Henne it opens up the offense. How many times did we see Henne drill a ball into a small window for a completion? Pennington can't make those throws, therefore the offense is held back a bit. I'm not saying arm strength is the main factor in a quarterback but it certainly helps the offense when you can make any throw on the field.
     
    Bpk likes this.
  20. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    Five minutes in time out for saying that Rivers has a better arm than Brady.

    And poor Danny Boy. All this time he's been thinking it was no defense and no running game that did him in, when actually it was his abundance of arm strength. Thanks for clearing that up :tongue2:.

    Not sure what youre watching. First, the bomb is not the only pass that requires good arm strength. The field is 120x55, passes must travel both forwards and sideways, all of that counts as distance.

    I'm confused. Can you name all of these NFL offenses that are dominated by the WCO?

    You couldn't be more wrong. You cant just compare YPAs and determine how far a QB is throwing down field. Dan Marino played 17 years, and his YPA is 7.3. He had only 4 seasons above 7.5, the same 4 seasons where he completed 60+% of his passes, not coincidentally. His completion % suffered because he was throwing lower percentage passes and lots of INCs. Obviously, his YPA suffered as well. Penne's YPA is high because he has the highest comp% in NFL history. But that's an aberration. He doesn't push the ball down field anywhere near as much as Manning, or Marino, or Elway etc. Suggesting as much is silly.
     
  21. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area
    speculation & idle banter
    when the rubber meets the road
    none of this puts a point on the board
     
  22. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    True, however the defense must be aware that a pass can be completed behind them.

    Where you are erring is in mixing two offensive concepts Des, one is a touch/timing concept, the other is really based on physical talent ie, the Wr beats the Cb in man coverage deep down the field and the Qb has the arm to make the throw away from the Safety in a area only the Wr can make the play.

    Penny can and did complete deep passes, however they were down the seam of the field, a much easier throw to make than one outside of the hashes and deep down the field as if the ball is lolipopped to the Wr, the Safety or Cb can simply undercut the route and pick the ball off.
     
    Bpk and Fin-Omenal like this.
  23. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

    38,949
    20,033
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    Pembroke Pines, FL
    It's true.

    You'd have a point here only if I was solely arguing arm strength as the only determination of QB success. My point is that it's irrelevant. Were arm strength at all a factor in QB success, then you'd see Super Bowls dominated by strong-armed passers and career YPAs in the double digits. Instead, you can go down the list of successful QBs and see guys with strong arms and guys with not very strong arms. There's no link between QB success and QB arm strength.

    Yes, and Pennington throws those passes just fine.

    Pretty much every offense outside of Oakland incorporates some element of the WCO even if they don't directly descend from Bill Walsh's playbook.

    Yes, you can. That's what the stat refers to: the average amount of yards attempted per pass.
     
  24. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

    10,281
    5,232
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Back in Miami
    Major stretch indeed.

    Tell that to Dan Marino, John Elway, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, etc. that arm strength is irrelevant.

    I most certainly is relevant.

    Just the threat of a QB that can throw deep once a game and connect is enough to loosen up a secondary. Desides talks about the 15 and 20 yard passes as well. Even on routes such as those arm strength absolutely comes into play. It dictates how focused DB's have to be on coverage and how they play the WR. Pennington's arm left DB's almost completely free from worrying about deep parts of the field, to sit on short routes and to position themselves for turnover opportunities rather than just worrying about coverage. You get a weak armed QB throwing an out and a DB is thinking INT rather than just break up this pass.

    Don't tell me arm strength does not matter.
     
  25. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,648
    67,540
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    I disagree on rivers over Brady..I believe rivers 's arm is weaker than most think, i've been sayin it since he came into the league that his arm was deceptively weak, that same arm got exposed against the jets..

    besides his arm, he must have space in front of him to get anything on his velocity, basically he has no what I call, arm athleticism, cannot throw the ball from different angles..

    Penny got exposed against the ravens, they bracketed us, and he could'nt get the ball past the hash marks because there was too much pressure coming up the middle before he could get his feet and windup set.
     
    GMJohnson and padre31 like this.
  26. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    Actually, what I like about this offense this year, is that it will be built around Hennes' strengths, not around Pennys' strengths....Last season, Henne was put in after Penny went down. This year, it's his offense. Now, some adjustments were made once he took over, but the base of the offense was built around Penny's short game (and our lackluster deep threats)...this year should be different, even if we don't truly have a deep threat any longer (with Ginn gone)....
     
  27. StillyStiff

    StillyStiff New Member

    19
    9
    3
    Feb 14, 2010
    Corvallis, OR
    Yes, you can. That's what the stat refers to: the average amount of yards attempted per pass.[/QUOTE]

    The back and forth banter makes for great off season time fillers, but the off season might be a good time to brush up on your nfl stats Despite. YPA is equal to Yards Per Attempt, how many yards the team averages every time the qb lets it go, not how far down the field he throws the ball... although your rendition of the stat did prove worth a smile.
     
  28. Zeke0123

    Zeke0123 message board ******* Club Member

    5,596
    3,609
    113
    Nov 22, 2007
    I think most guys believe its (arm strength) overrated but certainly not irrelevant.
     
    Bpk likes this.
  29. alen1

    alen1 New Member

    52,811
    20,365
    0
    Dec 16, 2007
    I'm with you here. That's how I feel about it.
     
    Bpk and Anonymous like this.
  30. cobrajet

    cobrajet Mr. Ross - sell the team!

    2,567
    1,033
    0
    Jan 12, 2010
    .......and this is what they have to say about the Jets

    "....unquestionably one of the Super Bowl favorites."
    http://walterfootball.com/offseason2010nyj.php

    There are a lot of truly fruity articles out there right now due to the lack of real team news. Next thing you know they will be picking the Bills for the Superbowl$#*&^%@.

    I just hope that the players who read this stuff don't get to far ahead of themselves. There is a tremendous penance to be paid in the NFL for overconfident and cocky teams. They usually have their hands in the Doritos during the play-offs.
     
    cobrajet likes this.
  31. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

    9,313
    4,169
    0
    Nov 11, 2008
    Two great points in this post. To me the biggest gauge for a QB is throwing the deep out. Pennington struggled before throwing to that route and now well it can't really be better can it? Henne does make all the throws and will only get better with time. He can indeed throw the deep out and also has the arm strength to squeeze in the much needed sideliner with WR's coming back to the ball by design.

    GM you have great insight. Always enjoy reading your stuff. :up:
     
    GMJohnson likes this.
  32. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    13,843
    10,283
    113
    Dec 18, 2007
    Columbia, South Carolina
    Yeah all those bums with no arms like Manning, Brees and Brady that have been winning Superbowls.....yeah arm strength is irrelevant. You must not have watched Penningtons last playoff game versus the Ravens. We had no chance to win that game because all the Ravens had to cover was the frontline and 10 yards upfield.

    Arm strength matters, it isn't a fall back evaluation. There are plenty of examples of strong arm Qbs that aren't worth a pile of spit, some GMs fall in love with an arm, the head and accuracy are more important but you still have to stretch the field to beat really good defenses. The NFL has changed, the rules favor the passing game, both long and short it is important to be able to have arm strength to a certain point. Pennington is on the edge of what is acceptable arm strength at the NFL level. Comparing a guy with a decade's worth of starts YPA to a guy in his first year starting YPA is a bit silly.
     
    djphinfan likes this.
  33. alen1

    alen1 New Member

    52,811
    20,365
    0
    Dec 16, 2007
    I've always felt there was two ways to characterize arm strength. Straight line arm strength, which is basically all power in the arm, and arm strength outside the hashes, which GMJohnson referred to. Arm strength, the one that most TV analysts hype up, in a straight line is overrated one, which Zeke was pointing out. Outside the hashes is extremely important, which is why I don't think its fair to say that arm strength in general is not relevant.
     
    DOLPHAN1 and Bpk like this.
  34. AbideN703

    AbideN703 Yes, I'd hit it

    2,532
    925
    0
    Jan 7, 2008
    Springfield, Virginia
    You're a contender, I'm a contender, we all scream for ice cream!
     
    alen1 likes this.
  35. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    I agree. Analysts refer to arm strength as in how far a guy can chuck it down field. Which i understandable, the average fan doesn't want to hear about arc, trajectory, hash marks etc.

    But there are subtler differences between guys with arm strength. Being able to throw without a clean pocket, not having to set your feet, on the move, outside of the pocket. Peyton is Marionoesque in his ability to find a tiny area within the pocket where he can deliver the ball. He has the accuracy to be able to do it, but without arm strength his accurate passes would be knocked away by average defenders and picked off by good ones.

    Marino was so hard defend because not only did he have laser like velocity on his throws, but his passes came out so quickly that defenders rarely had enough time to react. Obviously, knowing where to go with the ball, decision making, accuracy etc are just as important, but arm strength for a QB is like speed for a DB/WR or strength for a OL/DL. Without it, you're fighting an uphill battle.
     
  36. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    I respect Chad Pennington and there's even a part of me that believes that with his ball placement and ability to play superb situational football, with Brandon Marshall, Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess and Brian Hartline catching passes and in particular Marshall, Bess and Hartline showing some ability after the catch, that a healthy Pennington wouldn't get us the best in-season results...at least until Chad Henne proves himself.

    BUT, arm strength is not in any way irrelevant. When it comes to playoff football, Chad Pennington wins a title one way and one way only...with an incredible defense backing him up.
     
    Bpk likes this.
  37. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

    27,364
    31,261
    113
    Apr 6, 2008
    I wouldn't go so far as to say arm strength is "irrelevant", but I do believe it's pretty low on the list of important factors. I think you need a minimum amount of arm strength and CP had enough. Once you have that minimum level then I would list it behind:

    Accuracy
    Decision making
    Timing/Anticipation
    Pocket awareness
    Pocket mobility
    Leadership.

    Basically, I rank it as about the 7th most important attribute about even with running ability. Now obviously, arm strength can compensate for deficiencies in other areas. For example, you need less timing or anticipation if you can get it there in an instant. But I find that once you have that minimum NFL level of arm strength then the other six attributes listed above are more determinate of success.
     
    Bpk likes this.
  38. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

    8,605
    6,743
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Slightly left of center
    Exactly, arm strength does not matter so much for distance desides as it does for VELOCITY. How FAST does the ball get from A to B is what matters, not how far apart A and B are.

    Dan is the greatest ever because his footballs teleported to the reciever.
     

Share This Page