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Understanding where everyone is at with Herbert

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by tirty8, Apr 1, 2020.

  1. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I like Herbert, he seems like he's a tough SOB, but I don't know. I'd still probably take Tua over him if we end up having to choose between the two of them. I'm not going to be mad at all though if Herbert ends up being our pick. I like him quite a bit, I know we were super high on him last year, I know we have scouted him, I know this organization has had their eye on him. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we drafted him.

    I think at this point...Last year...and going into the fall of 2019, Tua was the clear cut number one pick for the 2020 draft and had the hip injury not happened, he may never have given up that crown. So....ignoring the injury and rolling the dice with the situation, I would snatch Tua up at five if he's there over Herbert. That's where i'm at with it right now, but again...I'm not going to be upset in the slightest if we end up drafting Herbert. I may raise an eyebrow if we draft him and Tua is still available, but again, i'll get over it quickly.

    If we do in fact take a quarterback this coming draft, the debates are going to rage on for quite some time in regards to who we should have picked, and why we picked who we picked. I expect a lot of knee jerk reactions after the very first games of the year are played (if some of these rookie QB's are opening day starters). It's going to be interesting, it's going to be fun. I'm team Burrow, team Tua, and team Herbert all the way. Hell i'm team Love and Hurts as of right now too. Any one of those five are going to excite me. I just don't want us reaching or getting "cute" with the pick.
    1. Burrow
    2. Tua
    2A Herbert
    3. Hurts
    4. Love
    That's my personal order as far as rankings go.
     
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  2. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    I also am in Group 2 - except I want Herbert. I fear that Tua is an accident waiting for the other party to arrive at the scene, as in one of the nastier CB or LB on the opposing team when he gets out of the pocket.
     
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  3. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    It's clear where I'm at on Herbert. I don't think the Tanne comparison is a good one. That's not a knock on Tanne nor anyone making the comparison. I just don't think it's an accurate comparison, but I understand why it's made by some people. However, I won't get into why I feel It's inaccurate because Tanne is like crack on this board and it's best to put that pipe down for a bit.

    I do think that Herbert will end up being the best of this QB class. I think he has the highest ceiling.
     
  4. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tannehill was a fantastic athlete... Herbert could not start at wide receiver
     
  5. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Using data from PFF's draft guide I did a quick table on their grades. I realize some people don't put much stock in their analysis, but it might be interesting to see how the QB's compare, in their view.

    Since we are talking about Hurts, if you look at the average grades, he ranks #2 behind Burrow. Why then is he ranked #10 in their guide? One reason might be is the following:

    I haven't watched one second of film, but the way I see it is PFF is dinging him pretty hard on his pocket presence. Some questions I have are: Is Hurts holding on to the ball because he doesn't understand what he sees? Or is he holding on to the ball because he is a football player trying to extend the play? Is this something he could be coached up in? Personally, I am intrigued. Give me a football player who is natural and intuitive on the field over the pure low football IQ athlete every day.

    PFF QB Comparision1a.PNG
     
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  6. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the information.

    I find the difference between no pressure grade to the pressure grade to be the biggest "eye opener" for me.

    I was also surprised at how low Tua is in so many of these categories compared to the other 9 QB's. It makes me wonder if he is as good an NFL prospect as most of the others.

    I can see now why Jordan Love, Fromm, Herbert and Hurts are getting mentioned so much as the draft QB prospects. Look at how many categories they score as some shade of green.
     
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  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yes, he's holding onto the ball...and running 50 yards for a TD on his own. If he's pressured, he either forces a pass into a tight window downfield (often with open receivers that he doesn't see) or he takes off running. Here's some highlights from his senior year-

     
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  8. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I wish they did lowlights, too. That way, we could see where a QB might need some work. That said, Hurts sure does make things look easy, doesn't he? There probably isn't any chance that we won't take a QB in the 1st. If we didn't, then teams would guess who we are going after. Sucks, because he is growing on me.
     
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  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, there were plenty of "mistakes" in that film as well- not seeing outlet receivers and forcing throws deep. Abandoning the pocket when it was still holding up. Stuff like that is a bigger deal in the NFL and most coaches don't want a QB who thinks he's a RB once he passes the line of scrimmage.

    Like I said, every glaring positive he does with his feet can also be viewed as a glaring negative...it all depends on what you want in a QB.
     
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  10. IdrA

    IdrA Rebuilding for Eternity.

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    I am Pro Herbert. I think this board and most Dolfans are obsessed with Tua being our pick.

    Pros: He's good in the pocket. Is capable of making all the throws. Can take off with the ball if he needs to. He's tall.
    Cons: Goes through his read progressions too quickly sometimes(better than too slow I say.) Is a shotgun QB(Hasn't taken a lot of snaps under C that I know of and has to learn it)

    Herb is my first choice. His throws make many of Tua's look like amateur (not pro) hour. I'm also not interested at trading away the farm from Burrow. Tank better next time.
     
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  11. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If you look at the weaknesses... And you have been watching Hurts you will know he has made tremendous strides when it comes to finding receivers. He has made tremendous strides with timing and touch. His arm has gotten stronger and he is no longer throwing soft passes with a ton of air under them... He is letting it go and there is zip on the football.

    The difference in Hurts now from a year ago is incredible. He was not given the chance to make the reads and let it fly in Alabama. He has shown at Oklahoma that he was capable of so much more as a QB
     
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  12. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And yes

    There are times when Hurts just runs the ball...And there are times when he decides to abandon the pass and run... when he should not. Experience will fix that. This is the first year he was asked to really throw the ball.

    If you watch the highlight tape of Hurts the way he runs the ball... Often he scampers into the endzone untouched... He is strong but he has moves he makes people miss and he can freeze a defender. Much like Lamar Jackson... We have to change the way we think about what a QB is and what he can do... If we drafted Hurts we would be getting that type of player... And the Dolphins would have to change the offense accordingly.

    I would be all for drafting Hurts letting him come in off the bench some this year... Wildcat it... Roll with Fitz... and next year turn it over to Hurts .... We build the line this year draft a Big strong running back like Dillon... And next offseason we draft the best blocking tight end in the draft.

    With Hurts we get a QB that can throw for 3000 yards and run for another 1000 himself. Throw for 30 touchdowns and run half a dozen in himself.

    I am still all in on drafting Mims also... Having three large receivers with massive catch radiuses will benefit whatever young QB we draft.

    I do not see Hurts diminishing the role that Parker, Williams, and Mims would play in the offense either.... Watch the Oklahoma highlights... Because Hurts keeps plays alive with his legs and moves around coverages get blown and often a wide receiver is all day open down the field once the defense commits to trying to contain Hurts the runner... He has shown time and time again that he will extend the play and then throw the ball on the move to the wide-open receiver for the easy touchdown.

    He makes that Sh*t look too easy.
     
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  13. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Forgive my ignorance, but is the "pocket pressure" "grade" a score based off of their completions made while under an immense amount of pressure from a defense (blitz, pass rush, etc)? Without even answering my stupid question, I think we can all agree that we want a Quarterback that can make plays under pressure or when the O line collapses. Guys like Brady, and Aaron Rodgers can do it and it's part of the reason why they are considered some of the all time greats. Roethlisberger can do it, I remember Donovan McNabb being good at it. I don't know, a lot of us complained about Tannehill and his lack of pocket presence for years. It was a glaring weakness in his game and there really isn't any arguing that. I know he never had a dominant offensive line, but there have been years where Russell Wilson (another one that's great when **** breaks down), Rodgers, and Brady have all had to play behind debilitated offensive lines all season long....And they were still able to deliver.

    So in regards to my question, I see Burrow ranked fairly high in the pocket pressure department. Jordan Love is up there too (if i'm reading it correctly). Those would be the guys I want playing Quarterback for us. Guys that (God forbid, IF THEY HAVE TO) can still be effective behind an unsteady offensive line. Just my two cents on this. Again, i'll be happy with whoever we pick.
     
  14. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    What happens when the line breaks down is near the bottom of my list, personally. I want a guy that can be at the very top of his game when the line does work, and I want the OL to be of the highest priority on the team. Make the passing game a well oiled machine that can move between the 20s, on schedule, game after game.

    If we're in a situation where the QB regularly has to run for his life and make off schedule plays, then the team has failed.
     
  15. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Herbert is a Daniel Jones to me....he can play at a decent level from time to time, but I wouldn't expect many jaw dropping performances that elevate his team.
     
  16. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I like Jones a lot, and think that's hes gonna be a really solid nfl qb.
     
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  17. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE COACH Luxury Box

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    I wont be at all surprised if we Draft Hurts...but it better not be before round 2
     
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  18. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I just don't think that you can trust what happens in the Oklahoma system to translate to a traditional NFL offense. Mayfield is a much better passer than Hurts, and he's had a lot of trouble in the NFL, even surrounded by some very good players in Cleveland. I don't think at Murray will ever be a NFL passer. If he succeeds, it will always be a gimmick, and I think that Hurts will be along the same lines.
     
  19. Wilkimania

    Wilkimania Active Member

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    I've come to the conclusion whilst reading this thread that to work out where everyone is in terms of a prospect, then you'd have to work out where everyone is with the current group of QBs in the NFL. Until you work out what we like currently then nobody can start to agree on what we're looking for.
     
  20. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    There are 3 prospects I’d be OK with drafting. Tua or Herbert at number 5 and Hurts on day 2. I’d also be on board with drafting Burrow if it meant we didn’t trade away any first round picks for him, but that isn’t a realistic proposition.

    I like Tua’s decision making, leadership and mobility. His arm is good, but not great. Injury is the obvious risk. I see him as a Russel Wilson but with a big injury question mark.

    I like Herbert’s arm and physical ability. I like his ability to make on script plays. I have concerns about his off script ability. His leadership appears to be nothing noteworthy for good or ill. I see him as having similar pros and cons as Tannehill had coming out of college.

    Jalen Hurts reminds me of Gardner Minnshew coming out of college. From the neck up he has everything you want from a college QB coming out in terms of decision making and leadership. His arm strength is the big concern, but experts I trust say that is a coachable deficiency and with improved technique his arm could be NFL acceptable.
     
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  21. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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    Herbert is underrated IMHO...watched a lot and he is right there with Tua and Burrow IMHO just not as polished. But two guys that come to mind after watching a lot of football for a lot of years are Jeff Hostetler and Jake Delhomme. I don't compare RT17 since Hebert IMO has much better instincts and pocket awareness.....but like Hostetler and Delhomme he looks to bail quickly and takes his eyes off downfield and then relies on his arm in a scrambled eggs situation....but when he hangs in he has decent footwork and makes plays with his arm...just needs to do it more and more confidence doing it.......really reminds me of Hostetler or the good version of Jake Delhomme.

     
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  22. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Air Raid offense is not a Gimmick...It is a variation of the west coast offense. Furthermore, the last 2 quarterbacks that ran the air raid offense in Oklahoma are starting quarterbacks in the NFL.

    If you have reasons why you do not think Hurts has what it takes to be a NFL player... Fine, I am listening. Saying the offense in Oklahoma is a gimmick is crazy.
     
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  23. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE COACH Luxury Box

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    You might be right about Hurts. But his mobility would make him a quality backup and give us some different options. As you know, I'm fine going with Rosen.
     
  24. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member Retired Administrator

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    Justin Herbert seems to be the one guy everyone is overthinking. He’s a bright dude, like-able. He’s pretty much “aww shucks” which is how Eli Manning was portrayed coming in to the league. He is, in my opinion, the biggest boom or bust prospect of any of the top three quarterbacks in this class, in part because Saban and LSU OC Joe Brady got so much out of their QBs. By that I mean he has the highest ceiling and the lowest floor. At his worst, I see a Tannehill like QB who isn’t quite as good. At his best he could easily be Carson Wentz/Carson Palmer and maybe better.

    The warts on him are pretty clear. He needs to carry the momentum from senior bowl week and late season/rose bowl and prove he can be vocal and provide a field general like mentality on the field. This is a personality trait that is coachable and comes with confidence. His teammates at Oregon liked him and played for him. It’s important because you never work hard for people you don’t like. No one does; it’s human nature.

    The other warts on Herbert consist of the following: Inaccurate on throws short and to the left due to poor arm slot (over the top at times and guides the throw) which is fixable. His mechanics are not consistent... mechanics should be repeatable. However tall QBs always struggle with this and if you look up the list of QBs 6-6 and taller the list is uninspiring at best and much of the failure stems from poor repeatability in their mechanics. Herbert is different though because most of the guys 6-6 and up that have played the position are lead foot statues and Herbert has functional athleticism. Herbert is still learning the position as he spent his time divided between football, baseball and basketball. Unlike other QBs who went to 7-7 camps and concentrated only on one sport Herbert did not (this has advantages as well) so he is a bit rawer then some other 4 year starters. He sometimes is a hair late coming off the first read. Lastly, Herbert needs to adjust to playing under center at least some of the time.

    Where Herbert differentiates himself a bit from other prospects is he can threaten any 1/9th of the field (short,medium, deep and left right or center). His arm talent is clear as day. He also maximized the talent around him at Oregon. The skill players are not anything more then late mid to late round fliers (5th-7th) yet he consistently put them in position to succeed and produced wins. Accuracy is generally pretty good except where noted above or when the mechanics get sloppy. It had to be to help his supporting cast and god awful scheme. Mentally, I think his processing speed is fine and will get better with more reps. Pretty good understanding of coverages and what the defenses are trying to do. He throws with anticipation most of the time and needs to continued improvement there but he knows how to do it and needs to trust his eyes. Better support will help with this.

    Overall, I think this is a player who is limited in college by horrible schemes under both Taggert and Christobal. I still have Tua over him by a hair but it’s based on the premise that Tua probably has a higher floor (closer to a finished product). However if the doctors don’t sign off on Tua I am perfectly ok with Herbert. There’s a lot of reasons to like him aside from the “he just looks the part” bs. I’d have taken him 1st last year. If he’s the guy at 5 even if Tua is still there I’m good with it.
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2020
  25. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    [FULL] Bucky Brooks "heated": Bengals select Burrow, Dolphins select Herbert, Chargers select Tua
     
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  26. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    Really glad you posted that video Sceeto. Having watched it when it aired the other day I was going to post about it and kind of paraphrase what was said between DJ & Bucky about Herbert, but the video gives it much more credence IMO. :up:
     
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  27. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Bucky has Tua rated #1, so that carries some weight with me. I have always liked his evaluations.
     
  28. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    Yes, but he also spoke very highly about Herbert saying "man, he has everything". And, "he's a really impressive prospect when I look at him". He also refers to his "big time arm talent, and his ability consistently to put the ball where it's supposed to be put, with touch."

    I also value DJ's opinion and think there's something to be said for his point that teams have been able to evaluate Herbert more than Tua due to the limitations that the Covid-19 situation has put on top of Tua coming off a major injury. Makes a ton of sense to me.
     
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  29. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Today, and I realize this may not be popular, but I am really okay with whoever we draft at #5 as long as we don't trade up. It could be Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Simmons, Brown, etc. and it would be alright with me. I see value in all of them dudes. I would also be okay with trading back if it brought us an additional 2nd rounder because then we could take our LT and then maybe use that 2nd on a WR from this deep class or get us a young center. There are a lot of ways to build a team. I can see the benefit of going about it either way.
     
  30. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    Overall, I agree with you. But, I especially agree with the parts I bolded.

    I think the thing that would bother me the most is trading up for Tua. So, I really hope they stay at #5, or as you said trade back and pick up more draft capital. They could get more picks for this year and next if they make the right deal.
     
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  31. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tannehill is better than Carson Wentz
     
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  32. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I see a lot of Nick Foles in Herbert

    Big tall kid with the undeniable arm. Also in College Foles was the best player on his team and he won games without elite talent at the skill positions around him.
     
  33. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    On a side note with those two, from what I've seen from Herbert in college, he's a lot more sure on his feet and agile than Foles ever has been. Foles does have the third most ever rushing yards in a season ever by a player 6'6" or taller, with 221 in 2013. Josh Freeman has the top two. I think that Herbert could beat his record of 364 rushing yards when he gets to be a starter full time. Those two, and Joe Flacco in his rookie season (161) are the only players in league history to run for more than 150 yards at that height.

    Scott Mitchell holds the Dolphins record, with 89 yards, in 1993.
     
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  34. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Foles is pretty athletic and does run pretty well for a QB... Big arm... Like I said I see a lot of Foles in Herbert.

    That is praise actually. Foles has a Superbowl MVP and on more than one occasion he has led a team and shown he can be the man.

    If Herbert could develop and play like Foles when Foles was at his best.... Hell yeah I would be happy with that on the Dolphins.
     
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  35. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I hope whoever we draft will take Fitzpatrick's example and be fairly aggressive with those runs. It's important to get others involved to develop and keep rhythm and timing within our offense, but those runs for 1st downs are nice also. Move the sticks, baby...
     
  36. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Best runner is Hurts. The more I look at it, I have my short list down to either Eason or Hurts, Herbert has too much bust potential, Tua has too high of an injury risk, and Burrow will take too much draft capital to move up and get him #1.
     
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  37. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I was watching Todd McShay's draft 4.0 on youtube and Louis Riddick said that when it comes to those teams with a high pick it is their job to minimize risk. Taking that into account, we should go BPA all the way regardless of position.
     
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  38. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    [​IMG]
    NBC Sports' Peter King reported a rival GM said the Patriots, "Love Justin Herbert, but enough to trade up for him?"
    King also noted, "Pats do have 12 picks—second-most in the draft—for ammo, but only one of those comes in the top 85. If they want Herbert, they’d likely have to be willing to part with the 2021 first-rounder in a trove of picks." Herbert has been popping up in the first round of basically every mock draft thanks to his NFL-ready size and howitzer for an arm. Rotoworld's Josh Norris rates him as the draft's No. 22 overall prospect, noting, "The tools are absolutely there - Big frame, big arm and a fantastic athlete. He definitely can succeed in an offense that wants to threaten vertical. Yet with all of those tools, I have concerns that he will not succeed off script. Mobility is not the problem, but mentality might be. He just might not have the comfort or confidence in those moments to make magic outside of structure."

    SOURCE: Profootballtalk.nbcsports.com
    Apr 13, 2020, 9:26 AM ET
     
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  39. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Reading that stuff about not succeeding off-script is very concerning. Is that what Rosen's problem is?
     
  40. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I've written off Herbert at this point. He does not handle pressure well, we've already run that script with Tannehill. Herbert is basically another Tannehill. I think our target should be Eason. He is just as big as Herbert and has a rocket arm as well, but he handles pressure much better, has a quicker release, is more accurate overall and has better touch on his throws than Herbert.

    We should target Eason with our 1C or 2A pick.
     
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