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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Jul 18, 2019.
Will be interesting to see what their metrics looks like next week
Interesting video. I wasn't that high on Tunsil recently but those clips sure show his ability.
What happens next week?
Hmm... "Offensive Share Metric"
PFN claims it's a way of measuring how well a player did on just the things a player could control, so a way of removing the effect of the team. They say they're using NFL's NextGen stats and "some other stats" (unspecified) to create their OT Performance Grades.
OK.. NFL's NextGen stats are actual statistics and they do include a few stats where you could argue the player's individual ability (or decision making) was mostly responsible for it such as "Completion Probability" which is the probability of completion based on receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver was, and the separation the passer had from the nearest pass rusher at the time of the throw:
NFL NextGen doesn't go into the precise details behind how they combine the individual statistics to get "Completion Probability" or certain other stats but it's totally plausible to create that kind of statistic and I think it's good they're adding new stats even if it's not a priori clear which ones would be useful for player eval.
PFN is another story however. Note that there are no NextGen stats that deal with individual players on the offensive line, which is obvious really because that's one of the most complex units to tease apart individual performance. So how is PFN using anything other than what in essence is a subjective ranking of players on the OL?
There's no way really. And it's no surprise PFN doesn't go into any detail explaining their methodology. So as far as I can tell PFN doesn't really have a "stat" (which is implied by using a word like "metric") for OL and is only trying to get you to pay $30 for their All-Access Pass. Lump this in with "stats" that hide their subjective component like DVOA or ESPN's QBR. In other words these aren't "stats" even if you prefer to reference them for other reasons.
Closest I can find:
"PFN's unique metric combines individual categories such as first strike, anchor ability and more. With this data, our researchers calculate a performance grade (out of 100) for offensive tackles that closely mirrors how offensive line coaches grade their own players."
Yeah, I saw Baldy's film breakdown of Tunsil. It was cool. D. Jerimiah loves Tunsil and yelled on NFLN that it was a crime that Tunsil wasn't selected to the Probowl last year. Tunsil absolutely erased Mack when we played Chicago. That was super impressive. I have really liked Tunsil since we drafted him. He is also a very good guy. Who says there are no positive benefits to smoking weed.
I hate to rain on parades and all that but my recollection is that Mack was severely slowed by an injury when we played Chicago.
Shutting down a slowed down Mack is impressive, but shutting down a fully healthy Mack would be much more noteworthy.
He was injured during the Dolphins game, fairly late in it if I remember correctly.
Did a bit of internet grave digging;
Apparently happened in the first half:
We need to learn from the mistake we made with Landry and not dilly-dally about giving him a contract. Make him the highest paid o-lineman in the game.
He needs to be a Dolphin for life.
Along with stoning Mack, there also clips of him stoning guys like Clowney, Griffen, Ngakoue and Jerry Hughes, so....
Writing stoning in regards to Tunsil is a little ironic.
Give me a beat:
"Writing stoning in regards to Tunsil is ironic.
Because he got caught smoking the chronic.
Still he plays left tackle like he is super bionic.
Maybe we should all start smoking some chronic.
Nah, we didn’t make a mistake with Landry. No how much you like the guy his performance wasn’t as good as the salary he wanted.
Landry last year had a 54.4% catch rate, 4 TDS in 16 games, 12.0 yards per catch and 6.6 yards per route.
Albert Wilson on a fraction of his salary had a 74.3% catch rate, 4 TDS in 7 games, 15.0 yards per reception and 11.2 yards per target.
On a production per dollar spent Wilson outshines Landry in any efficiency metric you care to mention.
And threw a TD pass, so must have had a perfect QB rating
I guess I need to clarify what the mistake was with Landry. I think the signing was botched from the get-go. We should have never let him play out his rookie contract. Ideally, we should have locked him up with one year left on his rookie deal. As a second round pick, Landry's year of his rookie contract was a pittance compared to his actual value. Furthermore, he has absolutely no stability. What if he had a catastrophic knee injury? He could very easily leave the NFL with his first and only contract. I would be willing to bet that both the player and his agent would be willing to take less to get out of that undervalued year and find the stability that they desire. Realistically, if teams are willing to do deal with a year left, they should expect a player to take less. However, the tables turned the moment Landry was ejected from his final game in Miami. Miami, not necessarily in a good financial situation, elected to franchise a player that they did not really want. The franchise tag essentially gave Landry the financial stability that he yearned for. Essentially, even if he played under that number, he would make more under that year that he had made in all previous years combined. The Dolphins could have still negotiated with him, but it was virtually a certainty that he could hit the open market and truly maximize his value, and the financial downside of an injury was still there, but it would no longer be catastrophic as the year under the franchise tag would provide life changing money.
My point is that the mistake was NOT signing him last year, we needed to sign him two years ago. The price only goes up.
I am hoping that history does not repeat itself. Tunsil is soooooo good. Seriously, I could not think of a scenario in which I would not sign him to a long term extension next year. It is ALWAYS cheaper to pay the guy earlier rather than later.
Tunsil is a guy who should be at the cornerstone of the rebuild and a Dolphin for over a decade.
My recollection, which may be wrong, was that the team tried to get Landry onto a cheap deal 2 years ago, but he and his agent wanted a top dollar contract and weren’t willing to take Miami’s lowball offer.
He’s been exposed, not worth the the money, whoever held out and didn’t give him what he was demanding did the right thing..
His ego is also out of control..
If I remember correctly, the Browns were the only team that a deal with Landry could work because they had to spend a bunch of money to reach the minimum amount required by the CBA. I like Landry and even though I agree he isn't worth THAT kind of money he is, at least for now, a good fit for them. Landry and Baker have the type of personalities that feed off each other. Defensive coordinators have had some time to prepare for Baker and co., so they might not be as explosive, but I would guess a lot of people still think they can make some real noise this year. They have had decent luck of late. I am happy for their fans. It's been a long, long time coming after having a team that has been total dog crap for so long. :-)
Yeah I think he’s a good piece on a team that can afford him, he makes great clutch catches..who wouldn’t want Jarvis Landry being your slot..
Here is the thing a lot of people fail to realize. We absolutely could afford Landry, but we have a propensity for paying guys that are not currently on the team and grossly overpaying other guys.
If you look back at some of the truly horrendous deals that we have made in the past (Timmons, Mario Williams, Branch to just name a few), we ABSOLUTELY could have paid Landry.
I really hope that Grier has learned from the mistakes we have consistently made in past. I would absolutely overpay for a young player that has been a top performer from day one over these aging vets that we are trying to squeeze one more year out of. We signed those guys and the only thing we have to show for them is dead cap space.
Overpaying Landry would have been a horrendous deal for us. We are much better off spending that money on a guy like Tunsil.
being able to afford a player is much different then a players worth with a hard cap to deal with..
There's no scenario where you could ever convince me that Landry would have been worth the money he wanted.
I really liked Landry, but I agree with you guys that it was a lot of money he was asking for.
I bought his jersey for my son.