That's immaterial to my point. We know Tua wasn't airing it out, so you'd also have to look at how much YAC Tua's receivers had, if your want to compare those things. But your point reinforces my point, that your were arguing against: the comparison based ONLY on the volume stats is not an honest comparison.
Honest question: who hates Tua? I love everything about Tua, except his physical shortcomings. Questioning what his ceiling is doesn't make someone a hater.
Tua's receivers had poor YAC last year. IIRC Waddle was the best of Miami's receivers. I think Parker was the league's worst. The stats are posted in the Best Case Scenario for Tua thread.
"Hate" may be a strong word. But I don't have a better one for folks who can't see something that makes him look good without being compelled to mention something bad. I doubt anybody actually hates him, but the compulsion to throw dirt (figuratively) at him to make sure we all know how little some of us think about him as a QB is... perplexing. I've posted good things and bad about him in this thread. With that being said, as a Tua supporter, I can read something that mentions his shortcomings without being compelled to chime in with a "yeah, but...". Something about him triggers his detractors and it is odd.
Omar Kelly says Flores wanted to draft QB Jordan Love in the first round instead of Tua. Omar said Flo never wanted Tua but was overruled by either Grier or Stephen Ross or both. Big O said he’d heard the same exact thing about Flores wanting Jordan Love and wanting nothing to do with Tua.
Big O got Omar to do research, cause he was the one who said it first and didn’t tell Kelly who Flores wanted.
I guess that depends. This forum was started to have a place to talk about the Dolphins realistically, not a bunch of homers (not saying you're a homer) with aqua and orange colored glasses. For the most part with Tua, I feel like it's all hope. People hope he takes the next step. People hope he's the answer. But he hasn't shown that yet. So for me, I'm looking for proof that he's the guy, and while I would LOVE for Tua to be the guy, he hasn't shown that. That's all. I don't think almost anyone on here is a hater. I think most of the people you feel are haters, are simply being realistic about Tua. I think people definitely hated WHERE Tua was picked.
This thread it titled Tua is not the problem which implies any point in that context is either supporting or arguing against. The whole reason this thread exists is to continue the debate until it’s proven either way.
If Tua wasn't throwing deep, which he wasn't, and his receivers had poor YAC, what does that mean? IMO, YAC is about the QB hitting guys in stride and putting the ball in places that allow the receiver to get YAC.
His WRs weren't getting separation. They were poor in that regard too. Miami was top in the league for number of passes into tight windows.
WR stats: https://www.thephins.com/threads/2022-best-case-scenario-for-tua.97029/#post-3442491 QB/Passing stats: https://www.thephins.com/threads/2022-best-case-scenario-for-tua.97029/#post-3442389 And if you scroll in that thread there are OL stats too.
I was talking less about this thread than other forums. If you're a user of Twitter or Reddit, you know what I mean. Someone can tweet something that is objectively good about him and it will literally always be responded to by a negative comment. They won't dispute the point of the tweet; they'll be triggered in such a way that they can't let something positive be said without reminding everyone that Tua will never be a good/top tier/effective/winning QB because of some subjective reason. Speaking of which, this tweet, which spurred the one beneath it:
What really gets under my skin and a lot of other fans skins, is when Tua supporters post cherry picked stats and isolated highlights or drives out of context in order to pump him up and make it seem like Tua is actually great and not the mediocre QB we've all seen so far. It's like you think we are all stupid or something to believe some massaged numbers or isolated highlight clips over our very own eyes.
Most cherry picked stats or highlights are used to point out that he could be good or shouldn't be declared trash which really upsets the group that desperately wants him to be trash so they can say I told you so.
Somebody could tweet a video of Tua walking across the water of a lake to save three kids and a puppy and if you saw it, you'd be compelled to comment "Tua sucks because he can't swim". Tell me I'm wrong.
You're wrong. Posting cherry picked stats is disingenuous. Just be honest. I've never once said Tua is trash, I've always said he can be a decent QB. He just doesn't have the elite traits and physical durability to be great.
I have never once said Tua is complete trash. I've always said he can be a decent QB in the NFL, just not great. He doesn't have the elite traits and physical durability to be an elite NFL QB. Posting cherry picked stats and isolated highlights is just disingenuous. That's my problem with it.
You're wrong. Better hypothetical: Tua wears shoes that allow him to walk on water, and rescues the puppies. Allen/Herbert/whoever actually walks on water, and then someone posts the stats and says, "See, Tua did the same thing.". And then the discussion is not about the puppies he saved, but how he actually did it, and then those of us pointing out that he used special shoes are called "haters."
Tua wasn't throwing deep because he didn't have time to throw deep. However, that doesn't mean he can't throw deep...he was pretty darn good at it in college. These arguments go two ways- you're saying the good stats are misleading, but the bad stats are misleading as well. The key thing here is to judge Tua with decent protection around him and multiple weapons. The good news is that he has ALL OF THAT this season- two + dominant receivers, what should be a solid line, a great run game, etc. Fixing one aspect fixes so many other aspects as well; for example, Gisecki should be our lead receiver this year because he should almost always be wide open over the middle for those intermediate/deep passes. Gaskin and company should have ample running lanes as well, which really supercharges the RPO and lets the team do all sorts of neat stuff. The big thing though, you really can't compare what Tua's done so far with a crap offense and what he should be able to do with a good one (plus a great D as well). There should be zero excuses this year- either he shines or he doesn't. But if he doesn't take a decent step due to the changes in surroundings, then I'll be right on that bandwagon with you to bring in a better QB. I really feel that he'll surprise a lot of folks this season though and become a top-5 or a top-7 QB just from a super efficient offense. For the Tannehill top-10 argument, we all knew our boy had to overcome handling pressure in the pocket. Tua doesn't necessarily have that one big hurdle though- he does everything at a fairly high level. And yeah, maybe he's not elite at any one particular thing, but we don't need a Marino or a Mahommes with this stacked roster. We just need smart, consistent play and he already delivers that. Call me stupid, but if we stay healthy I think we're playing for an AFC championship this season. I really think the roster is that stacked and if the offense produces, then the D is going to be even more elite due to more rest between drives.
Exactly how do we define 'cherry picked' stats? In a way, all stats are cherry picked. Most people look at stats to try to see a narrative or a trend. They want to see what's happening and try to tell a story. Someone is improving, or there's such and such a cause, or this and that issue. Stats by themselves are just data. Of course, there are right ways and wrong ways to read stats, but the reason there's always debate about stats is because there's so much that's contingent. Tua's stats show lots of short passes, into tight windows, with little time to throw. Stats can tell you that much. Stats can't tell you whether those short throws were designed by the coaches, forced by circumstances, due to a weakness in Tua, a weakness in the WRs to get open, bad play design etc. Confirmation bias will influence us all. We'll believe in something, believe we've seen something, and we'll construct or receive a narrative based on that. Afterwards, we'll be biased towards stats and film that highlight what we believe is the truth, and we'll dismiss or give less weight to things that run contrary to what we've believed. This is where we have to be careful and patient. Tua is better than average in some things. Lower than average in others. He's also been in worse than average circumstances on various fronts. For some that balances out to a mediocre Tua. For some that points to a potentially great Tua. We can debate or argue all we want but to talk as though the only way to see things is our own, and everyone else is blind, is just naïve. I believe that Tua is better than he has looked so far, but I can't guarantee it. I'm hopeful for the upcoming year. I'm also hopeful that this proves to be the case, because I'd rather find Miami has landed on a franchise QB than not. I'm hoping we can all enjoy good Miami football for years to come. Only time will tell.
Dude, AGAIN, that is MEANINGLESS to my point. The fact is, he wasn't throwing deep. Also, it wasn't like he was a deep thrower in college. Her simply wasn't. And even when he did throw deep, he was throwing to first round draft pick receivers who were 2-3 feet behind defenders. What QB can't throw that pass? I watched Tua a ton.
When you compare volume stats without considering the context, and compare two QBs with vastly different skill sets, it's cherry picking. Like Key a couple posts up talking about Tua throwing deep in college. That's a cherry-picked stat
It's cherry picking if you select a smaller subset of available data than satisfies some criteria to answer a question. For example, if your question is how efficient some QB is in the 4th quarter it's not cherry picking to select only passing efficiency stats from the 4th quarter. But if your question is how efficient that QB is overall, then you need to use passing efficiency stats from all passing plays or it's cherry picking. And if your question is how efficient that QB is relative to other QBs then you need comparable stats from other QBs too. So if there's some video of Tua doing really well on one play and it's made very clear that this is only meant to show he did well on one play, it's not cherry picking. But the moment you suggest that one play is indicative of how good he is as a QB overall then it is cherry picking. Of course you can cherry pick and still be accurate (e.g., by saying that one play tells you about his ability in general), but that requires demonstrating that the result you get from cherry picking is the same as you'd get from using all comparable data.
That's a great workout video of Tua. I kept waiting to see if he'd be doing it in a walmart parking lot or on a construction site. All jokes aside, these videos, all the offseason talk, you're not fooling me. HELL NO, I'll believe it when I see it. I support Tua, I want him to do well for us, I question how good he can be, that is all. Like I said, the videos are great, all the talk really keeps gas on the fire, but I've been seeing and hearing stuff like this for years now. Pretty much ever since social media came about. We heard this every year with Tannehill, we've heard it with other players as well. Lynn Bowden the next Deebo Samuel. You hear it in basketball too. At this point just show me. Tua can run through sticks and ropes all he wants, but what the hell is he gonna do when Von Miller comes crashing through the O line at him? Is he going to complete a pass to Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle? Or is he going to marched right over and take a sack, or worse...Throw a pick out of desperation? He has to get the job done this year or we need to draft someone else.
Thanks cbrad. One other thing I’d add, separate from cherry picking, is that when you slice data into smaller and smaller fractions you will find anomalies and discrepancies due to data being randomly distributed not evenly distributed. My first statistics professor once told me that slicing data is like slicing a fruit cake, if you cut it too thin some slices will only have raisins, some only currants, and others only figs, but it doesn’t mean that the fruit is badly mixed. It is an error to find one of these anomalies and then draw extrapolations from them unless you have some good proof to show that there is a reason for this. An example is the scare in the 1980s or 90s that high voltage power lines caused leukemia. What the researchers had done there was take a map of leukemia cases and power lines and where there was a cluster of leukemia cases they attributed the high level of leukemia to the power lines. Using exactly the same methodology you could actually build the case the power lines prevented leukemia by finding all the areas where there were lower than expected rates of leukemia and then drawing conclusions from those sections of the data.
Key didn't mention a statistic. He just said Tua was good with the deep ball in college. That's not cherry picking, necessarily because Key specifically gave that example to demonstrate that just because Tua didn't throw deep doesn't mean that he can't. It could be argued your own citing of YAC stats is cherry picking. By your own admission you see that stat as evidence that a QB isn't throwing his WRs open, thus it speaks badly of a QB, or in this case, Tua. However, that's just a stat that fits your narrative. This is why debates on this stuff go round and round, because of how things are connected, contingent. Was Miami's poor YAC number due to Tua's inability to throw open, or was it due to WR's not getting separation, and was that due to Miami having short time to throw, and was that due to the OL, or was it play design, or what combination of all these?
No it's not. If someone was open deep, Tua threw deep and he was accurate. Nothing cherry picked about that. My only point is that Tua couldn't throw deep the past few seasons very often because the offense didn't allow it. We had a historically bad line combined with almost all our starting receivers on IR. That's not a recipe for any QB to throw deep.
Seems like coach wants an accurate passer that can pass the ball to the receiver in stride. We have that QB, so hoping for the best. I'm OK with him throwing for 5 yards and the WR running 80 yards for a TD.
Yeah, or any combination of air yards + yards after the catch. How they get there doesn't matter...it's the end goal (a TD) that counts.
Okie dokie. We disagree vastly. Tua's deep throws in college weren't impressive. Here's my question: Do you believe that the Dolphins can consistently put a team around Tua that is full of all-pros and is head and shoulders above almost every team in the league? I ask that, because that is what Tua had at Alabama, and you are basing NFL projections off of college performance.
