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Tua is not the Problem

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 6, 2021.

  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The question isn't about whether we actually win or not.

    The question is how do you feel about TUA being able to lead a team into Buffalo in December and play HIMSELF well enough to lead them to a victory. Everyone keeps talking about "team," and to me, that's what s fan of a team without a QB says. No one's saying "We got Tua, so we got a shot!!"

    That's the plain, hard truth.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 1, 2022
  2. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Exactly, the Tua stans want to make the conversation all about the team and not about Tua. They come up with all sorts of excuses for why Tua has not shown up yet. Using their logic we could put any average QB in there since it's all about the team, right?

    What in the heck did we even tank for anyway? Just so we can pick some game manager 5th overall?

    I'll say it again, great players always show their greatness right away. Regardless of their surroundings, they will at least show great flashes and leave no doubt that they have a bright future. The fact we are going into Tua's third season and no one is yet sure if we have our franchise QB speaks volumes.

    By this point you should know what you have.
     
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  3. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    You guys aren't paying attention to the responses people are giving here. You're posting like you just dropped a 'gotcha' without realising it's nothing of the sort. Posters who are trying to be careful with their words and scenarios are taking your words and scenarios seriously and giving it thought. As such, they're stating that there's no way that fans of any team with any QB could come into this winter in Buffalo scenario and be confident of victory based purely on their QB. Note this carefully - every fan would have to look at their whole team to determine their confidence levels. As such, anyone who stated that would just be being honest, it would not be a criticism of their QB. The same is true for Miami and Tua. Confidence of a Miami victory in that scenario requires that conversation about the whole team and not just Tua. It's a false test.

    Perhaps that fact that you seem to think this is a valid scenario for evaluating a QB says more about your expectations for a franchise QB than it does anything else. If a franchise QB is one who can go into any scenario, the toughest the NFL has to offer, and by his individual influence swing the result to victory, then we're not going to see any, outside of Hollywood movies and Madden.
     
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  4. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Nah, G. Missing the point. I never said based purely on the QB. Never and I tried over and over again to make that clear. I said this Tua led team with all of the moves made. These responses do show an answer in an indirect way. It was pretty simple and if they are going to be a contender, they better hope they sometimes can.
     
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  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Dude, please. People are not doing that. This is a sports forums. Sceeto made a tongue in cheek comment, and everyone got their panties in a wad.

    The fact is, NO ONE is saying that the Dolphins will be great next year because Tua's gonna be great. Everyone is hoping that the TEAM around Tua is good, so THEN Tua will show is what he can do.

    That's the facts.
     
  6. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    The way you guys shift the goalposts is impressive.
     
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  7. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    Nope.

    See posts directly above mine - I did say you 'guys' not specifically you Sceeto:

    "The question is how do you feel about TUA being able to lead a team into Buffalo in December and play HIMSELF well enough to lead them to a victory. Everyone keeps talking about "team," and to me, that's what s fan of a team without a QB says. No one's saying "We got Tua, so we got a shot!!""

    "Exactly, the Tua stans want to make the conversation all about the team and not about Tua."
     
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  8. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    See my post above this one. You literally just said that yourself, here's the quote:
    "The question is how do you feel about TUA being able to lead a team into Buffalo in December and play HIMSELF well enough to lead them to a victory. "
     
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  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Only 7 TD's for Herbert in Buffalo in January? He must have had the flu that day!
     
  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Omg

    I meant, by that, that HIS play was good, right reads protecting the ball, running when he needs...but maybe we lose because our receivers couldn't catch it our defense was terrible. So TUA's play would have been enough to win, cbrads metrics.

    Not that Tua wins by himself. With ALL my posts regarding that on this site I'm not sure why anyone would think I meant something different when i said that. I shouldn't have to corrupt urge every freaking post.
     
  11. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I would much rather have a better TEAM than a better quarterback 7 days a week and twice on Sunday.

    Like I said earlier, on offense the quarterback is only 1 of 11 pieces and if “my” 11 pieces are better than “your” 11 pieces, regardless of who “you” have at quarterback, I’m gonna win and why? Because “your” defense can’t overcome 11 great players but “my” defense can overcome your 1 great player.

    Need some proof? The New York Giants and their 2 Super Bowl victories over the Tom Brady led New England Patriots. Brady was by far the superior quarterback over Manning but the Giants TEAM was better than the Patriots…not once, but twice.
     
  12. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    :cry:
     
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  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But how many titles did the Patriots win? I don't know why you like to focus on the losses. How many AFC Championship games did they play in? How many straight division titles? I mean it's a silly argument. Clearly the teams with elite QBs have sustained success, while the teams with Eli Manning aren't, but are more flash in the pan types.

    Yes you must have a complete team. But if you don't have an elite QB, you are going to struggle to have sustained success.
     
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  14. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    i do agree with this, I also think Tua is a very unconventional type can be a highly accurate point guard so some other things on the team need to be set up for him to flourish and showcase..
     
  15. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    You do? :sidelol: I do. but you? Learn to be a true fan and stop with all of the negative BS. Ok?
     
  16. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Funny you used the Pats as an example. How many people here would have said Brady was elite 10 years ago? Or even 5 years ago? Not me.

    However, EVERYONE would say that the Pats had an elite defense for the span of those runs, and elite run game where they somehow never, ever, ever fumbled, and they had elite coaching. Heck, look at how many said Brady was a bum when he left NE and that he'd never win anything without Bill B and his spy Ernie. I mean, those folks were wrong but still, very few put Brady in the same category as Brees, Rodgers, etc.

    If Brady is elite...what's he actually elite at? Gee, he gets the ball out fast. He's great at reading the field and making the correct throw. And he's pretty darn accurate as well. That sort of sounds like a certain Miami QB I know...

    For the record, I'm not saying Tua is on par with Brady. But I am absolutely saying that Tua is just about on par with year two Brady even though Tom inherited a championship team from the start. In 2001, Brady had 18 TDs, 12 picks and 2,843 yards for an 86.5 rating. Tua in year 2 was 16/10 for 2,653 yards and a 90.1. We don't have cBrad's magic math machine here to compare eras, but their numbers and performances are comparable.

    And guess what, Brady was statistically worse in 2002 and 2003, slightly better in '04 and '05, then regressed again in '06. It wasn't until 2007 (year 8) for him to be way above average. Then he got hurt in 2008 and guess what- he was off for a couple more years (sort of like Tua as a rookie).

    My point here is the exact same thing I've said throughout- that third-year Brady wouldn't have walked into Buffalo and expected an easy win. So why would anyone expect that of Tua going into year 3? Most of us get that Tua hasn't played amazing or carried the team, but we need you guys to get that almost zero young QBs do that. In the past 5-10 years, only Mahommes and Burrow come to mind. Others may have looked good and done great things for a stretch, but they also exited the playoffs early (if they made it at all) and are in the exact position we are.

    Tua will be better this season...we all know that with the offensive upgrades. The question is how much better? What's his actual ceiling? None of us know that yet. I just thought it was pretty ironic that you compared him to Brady, when Tom had everything in his favor with that team and still didn't perform as well as Tua and our gutted offense overall.
     
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  18. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Good points and another reason Brady has so many titles is because he never got paid like other QB‘s…
     
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  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    HE used the Patriots as the example. I argued using his logic.

    What do you mean Tom didn't "perform" like Tua? You haven't adjusted passer rating or other stats for era to accurately compare.
     
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  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I meant Tom was hurt in 2008 and his numbers dropped way off the following season. Tua came to us off a major surgery and people wondered why he didn't light it up on day one.
     
  21. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Are you seriously comparing Tua with Brady? Brady came in and took Bledsoe's starting spot his second year and took the Patriots to the super bowl, and won it. There was no QB controversy after that, there was no oh maybe we keep the veteran in because this kid can't handle it, like we had with Tua getting pulled for Fits. Here we still are not knowing if Tua is a Franchise QB. Brady was great pretty much as soon as he stepped on the field and the Patriots knew they had the franchise QB pretty quickly, not a comparable situation at all.

    And oh yeah, your stats are not adjusted for Era so even discussing them is a senseless.
     
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  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yes, I am really comparing Tua to Brady. Similar play styles, similar strengths, etc. And for the record, I've NEVER said Brady was elite. I don't think that today. But he's good at distributing the football and letting others make plays.

    Also, Brady stepping in and winning the Super Bowl isn't the shocker you're trying to make it out to be- they had the #1 defense and a very stout offense. Brady was 18 TD's/12 picks on the season, so nothing "special" in terms of carrying the team. 2,600 total yards as well. The real difference here is that Brady was surrounded by a super bowl roaster and Tua's been surrounded by garbage.

    That's why you're saying there's a QB controversy here where there wasn't in NE. Because it sure wasn't Tom's numbers to drive that agenda.
     
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  23. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Tom was the QB, and he lead them to a super bowl win in his second year. Do you think Bledsoe could have done just as well? You think Tua could have won a Superbowl with that team in his second year? I don't think so.

    Has Tua not had a great defense the last couple of years also? Yes, but he has not shown he is the future and is our franchise QB. Brady on the other hand established he was the franchise QB as soon as he started his first games in his second year. There was not much waiting around waiting for him to show up as we have with Tua. Again, comparing numbers for different eras is senseless and irrelevant without adjusting.

    Regarding their play styles, Brady is not especially known for a rocket arm, but he has a significantly stronger arm than Tua, and his decision making and Football IQ is also much better. He also has greater size and durability.

    Comparing the two is pretty senseless IMO.
     
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  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    IF the Patriots hadn't cheated making it so I'm not sure how much was skill and how much was cheating, I'd say Brady is elite because of what he did in those early years combined with the sustained success and success on a different team at his age. Remember when he made Branch look like a great receiver? He didn't have playmakers his whole career.
     
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  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah absolutely have to adjust Brady's rating from early career to accurately compare him to QBs today.
     
  26. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Not when they changed the rules for him.
     
  27. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  28. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    You’re the one beating the drum about great players whow greatness immediately.
    Why did Tom Brady split playing time with Drew Henson in college?
    Why did every team on the NFL pass on him multiple times in the draft?
    Why did he not play as a rookie?
    Why was he only given the starter role after Drew Bledsoe was injured?
    Why was he seen mainly as a game manager who’s job was to not hurt the defense early in his career?

    The guy a lot of people call the GOAT didn’t explode onto the scene the same way Mahomes or Marino did. He worked hard, improved his game and then after years and years of hard work and effort was recognized. Lots of players have followed that type of career trajectory.
     
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  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Umm...Brady started winning early on. Yes, I agree he's worked hard to improve his craft, but he came on the scene and the Patriots just started to dominate. If Tua can do that I'd be thrilled. But he hasn't.
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You still have to adjust dude.
     
  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That was my point as well; he wasn't putting up "elite" numbers until his 8th year, even though he had been to multiple Super Bowls at that time. Statistically though, he was average or below average in each of those first 7 seasons.
     
  32. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Come on man, he was a game manager his first couple of years. The Patriots had an elite defense back then and guys like Corey Dillon running for 1600 yards.
     
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  33. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Adjusted for era Brady was very good from the outset. Statistically, he was a well above average QB early on who became elite later.

    Brady z-scores:
    2001: 0.8084
    2002: 0.5665
    2003: 0.6719
    2004: 0.7495
    2005: 1.1214
    2006: 0.7350
    2007: 2.9871
    ..

    Tua z-scores:
    2020: -0.5625
    2021: -0.0562

    Remember z-score = 0 is average that year, and z-score = 1 is approximately the average level at which a SB winning QB plays in the year they win the SB. And for reference z-score = 0.5 is about 69th percentile and z-score = 1 is 84th percentile.
     
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  34. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    your moderator skills are like that of an EXTRA patient father. keep up the good work.
     
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  35. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    Drew Brees won 1 SB. Manning won 2, but 2nd one he was a shell former self.
    TB won all those SBs because of the combination of elite QB + great team + great coaching around him. it's the rarest of combinations
     
  36. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    still wrong. those patriot defenses were elite early on
     
  37. plc001

    plc001 Well-Known Member

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    Lol I was reading the numbers and thinking Tua isn't so bad... then I noticed the - sign.
     
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  38. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    This is rubbish.
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yes I agree your statement is rubbish. That's what the "this" in your sentence refers to right?

    All I'm doing is showing the actual statistics of Brady and Tua relative to their competition each year. It's standard statistical analysis, like about as standard as it gets. That you can't accept that because you want Tua to be this great QB isn't my problem. So far Tua hasn't done much. I hope he shows otherwise with the much better surrounding cast this year, but he hasn't so far.
     
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  40. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    According to "z scores", Matt Hasselbeck is a Hall of Fame quarterback.

    Again, rubbish.
     
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