Tua...''He's the greatest prospect ever''

Tua has had a great year but I believe what's between where he is now as a player and having the kind of mentality needed to take over games and spearhead his team in much the way Josh Allen did the other night is growth beyond the "pampering" he's received by McDaniel and more of a serious relationship with his head coach in which he's viewed and related to as a stud player with those kinds of capabilities.

In a sense a quarterback who plays that way has to be "above" his head coach -- i.e., Shula and Marino, where Marino would take over games and Shula was relegated to essentially the role of cheerleader. Right now McDaniel is the benevolent "daddy" and Tua is the pampered "son," and that doesn't equate to that kind of stature and mentality for the QB of an NFL team. The QB has to grow to the level of being the "daddy" of the team and play that way.

In fact I would say McDaniel and Tua's relationship is primarily what's between where this team is now and its ability to function like the elite teams in the league, because that relationship ripples outward and creates a great deal of the team's culture. The team functions on a less mature level because of it and they're incapable of matching the drive and intensity of good teams that are highly driven to win.

Over the past four games the Dolphins have the 3rd-worst offense in the league in the second halves of games (-0.289 EPA per play). Only the Jets and Falcons have been worse.

Against the same teams in the first halves of those games the Dolphins had the 3rd-best offense in the league (0.191 EPA per play).

So, when all the marbles are at stake and teams are making late-season pushes to get into the playoffs and get the highest seeds possible, the Dolphins have regrouped as a team at halftime of those games and then taken the field and performed worse offensively than 29 of the other 31 teams in the league.

That suggests a tremendous problem with culture and leadership, and the two most prominent leaders on the team are the head coach and the starting quarterback.

 

I think he is just "scared" to run. Coach put in his head not to put himself at risk.

 

yep, they typically have big booties.

 

I think he has been coached to not run this year, don't take any risks. I also believe he has a desire to prove people wrong on the injury front and as such he's been taking zero risks with his body. He can see that big contract coming his way and doesn't want to jeopardise it imho.

 

great performance by Love last night. If only Tua was anywhere near as good as him.

 

Over Tua's career (2020-2023), in weeks 1 through 9 of the regular season his EPA per play is 0.271, 3rd-best in the league among the 32 QBs with at least 560 plays during that period.

In weeks 10 through the wildcard his EPA per play is 0.07, 20th-best in the league among the 32 QBs with at least 515 plays during that period.

Tua falls off a cliff later in the season. 3rd-best in the league is obviously among the elite and gives a team what it needs from the QB position to be a Super Bowl contender. 20th-best in the league certainly does not.

https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/expected-points-added-epa-nfl/

 

"are we saying Tua is incapable of sitting in the pocket and seeing the field identifying the right guy?" This! Is it because of the OL, or is it because coach has taught him to just get rid of it? Either way you very seldom if ever see him looking over the field like i see other QB's do.

If he is going to improve the above will have to change.

 

Personally, I don't think Tua will ever be good at sitting in the pocket and seeing the field. I think you have to keep up this quick release dependent offense with Tua. It does work. We just saw a mental breakdown of sorts when the pressure was too great. That's a different issue than changing the scheme. It's psychology. Tua needs to spend a lot of time around guys who never quit, you know like JJ Watt or Ray Lewis. It can be infectious.

 

How so? He played all 18 games, only 8 other QB's managed to do that I believe. So in that sense, it was an epic win, not a failure. He's going to get his contract now.

I expect him to look a lot leaner at the start of next season.

 

The difference with those kinds of players is that they have leadership roles on their teams that are larger than the effect of their head coaches. The issue with Tua currently is that he is taking his cues from McDaniel as opposed to having a leadership role among his teammates that’s larger than McDaniel’s influence.

This is again why their relationship has to move beyond McDaniel as the “daddy” and Tua as the “pampered son.” Teams that win big in the NFL typically have quarterbacks who are the “daddy” of the team, with a leadership influence that rises above that of the head coach.

 

No, we have to evolve past this. Teams have caught on and they are jamming recievers at the line to disrupt timing on the quick passing game and disguising coverages to take away the first read. We cannot have a QB who is only good when his first read is there and the play runs smoothly and on time, that's not going to work against the better teams and defenses.

It's not an issue with nerves or mental toughness in the big games. It's just that the good teams are good at taking way his first read and making him improvise. The QB has to have the capability to sit in the pocket, buy some time, scan the field and progress through his reads to find the open man and hit him on the fly. If Tua doesn't have the ability to do that consistently then we need to move on because that's what we are going to need to win the tough games against good teams.

 

I've watched the other Warner stuff, I'll definitely be watching this later. Thanks.

 

I think mental toughness in big games is a cop out. A lot of the games Tua was poor in, weren't big games. They were just good teams that understood how to defend the scheme and apply pressure. Acting like this is a small sample thing. LOL. Tua had a 84 passer rating in 7 games against playoff teams! Tua had a 52.3 passer rating against pressure in 2023! You can pretend this problem doesn't exist, but it's really consistent throughout his career, because when Tua doesn't have his feet under him, he's dead because he just doesn't have the physical tools to throw off-script.

Look at Jimmy Garoppolo. He went from top 3 in passer rating in 2022 to being benched in 2023 w/ LV. Mediocre QBs in great system/schemes can look like they are elite, but just aren't. That's what we have in Tua through and through. Fool's gold. And we'll be wasting time by playing him any longer than we need to ala Tannehill.

 

Fwiw, hitman has probably been the most vocal critic of Tua on this site.

Your post is spot on. I also think it’s ironic that we moved on from Flores who thought Tua was too soft and not the right QB because Grier didn’t want to be wrong about his QB pick. Then he brought in a HC who could maximize his talent and that QB was absolutely helpless the last 3 games of the season. I’m sure Miami will do what Miami does and believe we just need more time or more weapons or whatever the excuse is. But in 2-3 years we’ll be back to a rebuild wondering what the hell happened to one of the most epic draft capitals in recent history. Then, hopefully, it will be painfully obvious to Ross that the answer is and always has been that Grier is not a good GM.

 

Pretty much. Which is why it's necessary for Ross to bring in a new GM. Need someone new to look at this team with the mentality of, "I didn't draft him. I'm just trying to fix the problem." Instead Grier is looking at the team like, "I did draft him, and it's necessary for me to make him work or I'm going to lose my job."

You need someone to look at this team objectively, and Grier simply isn't going to do that.

 

Saying we have to evolve past this ignores how hard it is to improve on what we have. It's quite realistic that it might take another 10-20 years to find a "perfect" QB. Don't for one moment think all we need to do is to get rid of Tua, pick a QB high (not that high given our draft position!) and our problems are solved. It's a crap shoot even if you have the 1st pick in the draft. So getting rid of Tua at this stage is a bad idea.

Secondly, there's no way to explain the great majority of throws Tua missed against KC if it's not nerves. He was missing a lot of easy throws. The only viable explanation is that it was a high stress situation.

Finally, performing at a statistically elite level for 2 years in a row is evidence you can win with minor modifications of the current scheme. If this was only 1 season you might have a point, and of course you predicted after 2022 that teams had already caught on. That prediction was incorrect. There's something about McD's scheme with Tua, Hill and others that is viable against most teams even after they have time to watch lots of tape.

Having said all this Tua does need to improve his ability to read the field when he has time. But clearly he's had difficulty with that. I suspect his ceiling on that is relatively low. So realistically, the best option right now is to see if Tua can overcome the inability to perform well in big games despite his low ceiling in some areas in 2024 and make the decision after that.

 

I think part of this as well is players didn't really respect Tua before McDaniel came along. McDaniel had to sell Tua to everyone. Build the scheme and the players who can be successful around Tua.

You can only hype and prop up a mediocre player for so long. Guys who play the game can see it. Tua is a sweetheart of a guy, and players around the league aren't dunking on him because they don't like him personally. In fact, it really speaks to how strongly they feel about Tua's abilities that they crap on him despite how sweet and genuine he is.

I think eventually McDaniel is going to have to die on the Tua hill. Not just with Grier, but within his own locker room. They are going to lose respect for him.

 

What we have is a mirage. McDaniel worked some wrinkles in this year with motion and moving Hill around to counter the jamming teams were doing towards the end of last season, but eventually teams adjusted to that as well. It takes a while every year for teams to pick up on new things and adjust, and the good teams are better at adjusting quickly than the bad teams. Scheme can only get you so far, towards the end of the season and in the playoffs against the better teams your QB is going to have to step up and make plays on his own independent of scheme. That's the problem with system QBs is eventually all systems can be figured out and the individual skill and ability to make plays will be the difference.

 

Like I said.. all that should have happened after last year. Our offense statistically was better this year than last. So no, the evidence suggests you can't just adapt and nullify any scheme, assuming that scheme has players very well suited for it. Right now the evidence is greater that it isn't a mirage, irrespective of Tua's big game issues.

 

During Flores years, there was a lot of talk about how players didn't believe Tua was good. Locker room chatter. If the coach, Flores, didn't think he was good, you really think it's a big leap that the players didn't buy into him either?

 

Tua doesn't suck but in saying that he will be the next kirk cousins or Dak.Never win anything g with him.He has to.limited skill for.tne AFC unless we could.get home field.advantage to have any shot

 

It's not a guess. It was reported by the beat reporters at the time.

I think the relevant question is why they DIDN'T vote him as captain in previous years. Remember, my position was "players didn't really respect Tua before McDaniel came along. McDaniel had to sell Tua to everyone."

 

It was reported by beat reporters though that multiple players in the locker room didn't think Tua was the goods during the Flores years.

Like I said, McDaniel has changed that narrative, and got people to buy into Tua. But players aren't going to keep buying what he's selling when they see the lack of physical ability compared to what they are facing. So either McDaniel is going to die on the hill, or he's going to pivot.