Tua...''He's the greatest prospect ever''

Remember this?

 

I'm honestly amazed that so many people forgot about Tua's performance at Bama. He was a monster. He fell victim to the addiction that sports media has with using negative attention for ratings. They gave up on him without consideration for whether his early play was indicative of his potential.

The media isn't about analysis nearly as much as it's about clicks. When Burrow and Herbert got off to a hot start and people inevitably compared them to Tua, the race was on to not only question the pick, but to do it at the cost of disparaging the player. There guys (and gals) on panel shows writing receipts about how he wasn't skilled enough to be elite. Skip Bayless (who still insists he's below average because he's literally incapable of admitting he's ever been wrong). Stephen A. Smith. Mina Kimes. Chris Canty. Even Joy, who is unquestionably a Dolphins fan, was kicking him.

They took pleasure in it, too. They laughed when Cheetah said Tua was the most accurate QB he'd played with. They laughed when he connected on a 50 yard pass in practice because it wobbled a bit at the end, even though they previously said he couldn't throw that far. The breathlessly speculated on how good the Dolphins would be with DeShaun Watson or Tom Brady, who was being held together with duct tape at that point.

They breathed a collective sigh of relief when he was injured last season because they could stop talking about his capabilities - which they'd all whiffed on after his hot start - and shift the discussion to his health. I was looking for the narrative about Lamar Jackson's health for an entire offseason and never heard it anywhere. Tua was smudged for trying to come back and play before he was 100% but nobody said **** about Lamar refusing to suit up in spite of reports that he was at no risk of further injury. And his team made the playoffs without him; how much better would they have been with him?

Sorry about the book, but I'm happy right now. Maybe happier about the Fins than I've been since #13 hung up his cleats. I hope Tua continues writing one of the best sports redemption stories I can recall. Even yet, he's got some mouths to shut.

 

A lot of what passes for evaluation in the commenteriate is limited to what they can see.
- Herbert has a monster arm and because of that he's great.
- Lamar Jackson rushes like a video game character and because of that he's great.
- Mahomes makes crazy off platform throws and because of that he's great.
I'm making no comment on the quality of the QBs above, just saying that it's easy to say they're great based on lazy analysis.

To analyse Tua properly requires a deeper understanding of the game. He isn't doing freakishly athletic things. Every QB in the league can make the throws Tua does. What Tua is doing though is making those plays with razor thin margins for error time and time again. To the point where other QBs won't attempt a lot his throws because the risk factor is too high for them.

To analyse Tua properly you have to understand timing, accuracy, and the decision making process. The majority of pundits commentating about the NFL just don't have understanding of the game to understand what separates Tua over other more physically gifted QBs

 

The problem is people have become enamored with throwing the ball far and running fast.

Playing quarterback used to be standing in the pocket and delivering the ball on time with accuracy and anticipation.

 

We have a few posters who leaned hard into the "strong arm" narrative. They never said how strong that arm needs to be. People were posting here about being able to throw the ball 60 yards, yet there are fewer than a dozen completions every season of that distance. If a QB can throw the ball 80 yards, that's all good. But since most plays are run with less than 80 yards to the end zone, it's entirely unnecessary. It's just a silly bell or whistle to brag about, like having all-wheel drive in a place where you don't drive off-road and it rarely rains or snows.

Then, when it turns out Tua has a ridiculous YPA and connects on the highest percentage of passes beyond 5 yards AND 15 yards, they regard it as "cherry-picked stats". There's no way to win the argument because when they said he didn't measure up to their ideal for a QB, they intentionally listed attributes they didn't think he could master. Then when he did, they find new ones. In the end, they fall back on the eye test and personal preference, which nobody can ever objectively debunk.

It's really not worth arguing with them about it, which is why I stopped engaging.

 

Jay Cutler had one of the strongest arms ever in the NFL- he could throw 90 yards sitting backwards in a chair while smoking a cigarette (as the meme claims...). And those same posters who insisted that we needed a strong armed QB hated Cutler just as much as they hate Tua.

Tannehill was a strong armed QB. Henne was a strong armed QB. Heck, my boy Matt Moore was a strong armed QB. They didn't like none of them either. For what it's worth, they generally loved Pennington though...figure that one out.

 

The only bad part about that video was when he described Sam Darnold as "ice cream."

 

Good stuff... been a long time! I hope everyone is good. I'm psyched out of my mind for this team!

 

I've always said their are players that can see it and do it before others can even comprehend it. Like they see the future before it happens. Those that don't have the skill or talent can't comprehend it. Coaches that don't understand it can't coach it (Gase) Those that have the gift can't always explain it because they don't know anything differently.

 

I heard Gase hated Moore because Moore would throw to the open guy, like Doughty, but Gase wanted him throwing through to the designed player regardless of circumstance.

 

There’s a guy who should have never been a head coach.

 

When you throw as accurately as Tua does, and you have targets as fast as Hill, Waddle, Mostert and Achane, you don’t need a particularly strong arm.

I’m not saying that Tua has a weak throw, but it is plenty strong enough for McDaniel's schemes.

 

The thing is this: The QBs known for having strong arms somehow are averaging fewer YPA than Tua has for the past two seasons. When you consider that his downfield accuracy is among the best in the league, it makes me wonder how strong a QB's arm needs to be. It makes for a nifty highlight but from a strategic standpoint, its value is far overrated (unless we're talking about hail Mary's).

Justin Herbert (for example) has what everybody knows to be a cannon. Even with a higher completion percentage right now, he's averaging 2.8 fewer yards per attempt than Tua. He's by any metric an excellent QB but he's not going downfield as often or with the accuracy that Tua is. It just leads me to conclude that it can't hurt to have a strong-armed QB but if it only results in 3-5 completions per year with 50+ air yards, it's value is less tactical than it is opportunistic.

Would I prefer a QB who can launch rockets with all other things being equal? Heck yeah. But since things aren't equal, I'm more than happy with a guy whose arm is strong enough.

 

Tua vaults Mahomes to take the top spot in nfl.com's QB index:

Rank
1 Tua Tagovailoa
Miami Dolphins · Year 4

2023 stats: 3 games | 71.3 pct | 1,024 pass yds | 10.1 ypa | 8 pass TD | 2 INT | 8 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 4 fumbles

There isn't a quarterback on earth playing better football than Tagovailoa, and no coach and quarterback are more in sync than Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel. Just look at his perfect 16-for-16 first half in Sunday's 70-point outburst. Tagovailoa is putting together a special season, helping the Dolphins emerge as a new power in the AFC. I'm practically gobsmacked by how easy they're making it look right now.

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-qb-index-week-4-tua-tagovailoa-vaults-patrick-mahomes-to-take-no-1-spot

 

I also posted this in the game thread just now, but I'll drop this here for those who think Tua is a one-read spot thrower:

 

Thanks, hadn't seen that before. Made me Dad proud of that young man.

 

Wait...WHAT?! That play was something that needs to be cleaned up in practice??? Tyreek Effs UP for a TD.

 

What exactly did he do at Bama that was so out of the ordinary for a Bama QB? Mac Jones and Tua had virtially identical numbers and results playing QB at Bama with an all star cast around them. And they both had similar ordinary numbers their first couple years in the league while playing with less elite players around them. Tua has jumped ahead of Jones now because he got hill and Waddle and is throwing to all stars again, but given the same supporting cast, Jones and Tua are about the same level of QB imo. Both good, but not really great in the sense that they cannot play great unless they have a great supporting cast.

 

Get lost. LOL

 

Bryan Flores would definitely agree with you.

 

I get what you’re saying but here’s where/why I’m going to disagree with you.

That brutal west coast road trip we had last season…against San Francisco and San Diego (yes I still say San Diego), those two teams had studied the Dolphins offense and was able to essentially shut down Hill and Waddle. McDaniel’s offense was still being run according to its blueprint and McDaniel didn’t have an adjustment to make. Rookie head coach. Kinda expected.

During the offseason, McDaniel studied film and saw how the defenses of both of those teams were able to shut his 2 Star receivers down, so he made adjustments to his offensive scheme.

instead of bringing his receivers in full motion across the offense, he adapted and had Hill/waddle motion out from the H back position, thus creating space for his speedy receivers to be open almost instantly.

So you can’t say it’s just Tua and Hill&Waddle. That’s just too simple. You have to figure in the adjustment to the offense that McDaniel implemented that’s once again propelled the Miami Dolphins to the number 1 offensive ranking, causing yet more sleepless nights for defensive coordinators.

 

Your patience to respond to him is admirable, but while doing so he's probably laughing that you fell for his nonsense.

 

Dude.. you're not a credible poster. You've been wrong about almost everything regarding Tua and you refuse to change your views of him one iota. It's the opposite of evidence-based reasoning.

Even the Bama argument fails. He had a great OL at Bama. Not so with the Dolphins in 2022. You repeatedly said that Tua would not be able to play at a high level without a great OL, which is why you were against getting Hill. I argued against you pointing out that statistical analysis was very clear as to where to put resources: QB + WR. OL doesn't matter as much resource-wise. You were wrong about that. You were also very clearly wrong about Tua's ability to play at a high level without a bad OL. Yet you don't change your views of Tua that it's "all the surrounding cast". OL is surrounding cast!

You were wrong about Tua and the deep ball. Even after we got Hill and Waddle you predicted he would never be good at the deep ball. It's only after Tua proved you wrong over and over that you started with the excuse of "because he's got Hill and Waddle". Yeah, but he didn't have that great OL you said was necessary! Also, he didn't have Waddle when he led the team to (most of) those 70 points in the last game.

You were also wrong about Tua not being able to play well against good defenses, even in specific cases like away in Buffalo in the cold. And you were spectacularly wrong about Tua not being able to lead the team to victory when the rest of the team was playing bad. Yet you keep repeating this crap about Tua's success being due to everyone else.

Simply put, there's no poster here who has been more wrong about Tua than you. Your ability to evaluate QBs is worse than random guessing. And it's because of your fixation on arm strength ignoring actual performance. It's performance that matters, not arm strength lol. But I do thank you for reminding all of us there are still several anti-Tua posters here who insist Tua is "at most" an average-ish QB and that a bunch of average QBs would do the same in the same situation. lol.

 

Well I am a grown up

 

He was also a staunch advocate for Zach Wilson.

 

I agree with you. Probably the biggest part of is great scheming by McDaniel. He has really proven himself to be an offensive wizard. He figured out what Tua was good and bad at, and focused on scheming to his strength. That is what Grier brought him in for, to salvage Tua and he has done an amazing job.

 

He is succeeding without a great oline because of great scheming by McDaniel to get rid of the ball quickly, and great recievers that can get to their spots and get open quickly. He is still not a great deep ball thrower. It's just his recievers are great and getting tons of separation quickly where it doesn't matter much if they have to slow down and wait for the ball on the deeper throws.

I will give him credit though for working his *** off to get better, get stronger, learning to fall, learning the offense, and perservering through adversity. Still doesn't take away that he was not very good his first few years, and a big part of his turnaround is having a great supporting cast and great scheming.

 

You do realize that most QBs can't get the ball out that quickly with the level of accuracy Tua has. That's what I'm waiting for you to someday understand: that you can't get anywhere near the same results with typical average QBs. Tua is not another Fiedler or Bridgewater or Jones. That's the part you're not yet seeing.

I look at the stats and can see how unlikely it is for such stats to be produced by an average QB. That's a major source of evidence you ignore, which is why it's going to take you MUCH longer to arrive at the same conclusion.

 

btw.. you're going to have to admit you were wrong on Grier too. The vitriol you had against Grier even exceeded what you had for Tua lol. Grier is turning into a very good GM. We're one of the best teams in the NFL right now, and Vegas has us in 4th place in terms of SB odds after KC, SF and Philly.

 

Who are the great QBs who don't have great supporting class or scheming?

 

And this is what GREAT coaches do. They look at their talent and tailor schemes, or systems if you will that accentuate their players strengths. I've said this for nearly 2 decades on these forums (my God, has it been that long?).

In the instance of quarterbacks, there have been some really GOOD quarterbacks whose careers were destroyed by poor coaching. There have been some average quarterbacks that had great careers due to fantastic coaching.

Two that come immediately to mind are Ryan Tannehill and Alex Smith.

I know for some it’s still a sore spot but Tannehill was a GOOD quarterback who struggled in Miami playing in Philbin’s and Gase’s offensive schemes. Instead of those coaches tailoring their offenses to Tannehill’s strengths, it was forced upon him to proverbially sink or swim in their systems. Well, we see where Philbin and Gase are now…or should I say ARENT now.

Alex Smith on the other hand was an ok quarterback, playing ok in San Francisco but look at what success he had once he went to Kansas City. Andy Reid knew what Smith’s strengths and weaknesses were and tailored his offense to afford Smith and the Chiefs the success he enjoyed in the twilight of his career.

This is what makes McDaniel such a great coach. He developed an offensive tailor made for Tua. The success he had last season is indisputable. But not only that, McDaniel adjusted his own offense to account for the games last season that the offense was kept in check.

Barring anything catastrophic, I can truly see Tua, the Dolphins and McDaniel enjoying success in Miami for at least the next decade.

This is a fantastic time to be a Dolphins fan…and we’ll deserved for those of us who haven’t seen success like this since Ronald Reagan was president.

 

While throwing the ***DEEP*** ball makes for great highlight reels on ESPN, it’s rarely the result of an offense being a consistent success and generating wins. Tua’s been nicknamed the Samoan Sniper, and for GOOD reason.

A sniper’s creed is one shot, one kill. Snipers DONT miss. They shoot, they kill, that simple. The same goes for Tua, he throws and he hits. He really is THAT good.

Tua can process the defense that quickly. He’s almost clairvoyant to the point to see what’s going to happen before it does and he gets the ball out quickly , on time and on target. It’s truly amazing what Tua can do.

That’s what HE does. Other parts of that equation are McDaniel and his offensive scheme and having truly talented receivers with the discipline to run routes as designed…and the phenomenal speed they possess. Often Tua’s success has been attributed to his receivers and their speed. That’s a valid point to a degree but McDaniels offense is dependent on having that type of receiving corps.

As for the OL, I was a fierce critic of the line for decades. I was a fierce critic of Grier, calling for his head. I was extremely skeptical of the Butch Barry hire as historically his offensive lines have sucked to the highest level of sucktivity.

So far, I’ve been completely WRONG this season…and have never been happier to be so wrong.

Sometimes, it just takes the right mixture of otherwise “mediocre” ingredients to produce a flawless product…and this year’s OL is proof of that.

 

McD is a great coach, but he has also said a few times that Tua is an amazing fit for his offense. This is what happens when a great coach gets the right players. It’s both of them working in harmony.

 

I'm not singing any praises for Grier until we win at least 1 playoff game. He has levaraged the future to win now so he still has to deliver.

 

That's fair enough. I'll get back to you on this one.