Tua Analytics Thread

What this shows below is that the Dolphins' EPA per pass dropback has decreased from 0.233 with Fitzpatrick to 0.109 with Tua.

Fitzpatrick's figure was 0.71 standard deviations above league average, whereas Tua's is 0.29 standard deviations below it.

That's a difference of a standard deviation, which is significant. The Dolphins are going to need to either keep playing as well as they have been on defense and special teams, or Tua and the passing game are going to have to increase their production. It can't be neither if they want to keep winning like they have been.

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My analytics say Tua is 3-0 and Burrow/Herbert are 3-12-1.

"The Guy wrote:

What this shows below is that the Dolphins' EPA per pass dropback has decreased from 0.233 with Fitzpatrick to 0.109 with Tua.

Fitzpatrick's figure was 0.71 standard deviations above league average, whereas Tua's is 0.29 standard deviations below it.

That's a difference of a standard deviation, which is significant. The Dolphins are going to need to either keep playing as well as they have been on defense and special teams, or Tua and the passing game are going to have to increase their production. It can't be neither if they want to keep winning like they have been.

If you look a bit more closely what's below average with Tua is Y/A, which I think is partly due to this team not having a WR that can threaten deep (I keep saying that's one of the top priorities this offseason) and also partly because of play calling.

Tua's Y/A is 6.7 right now which is 0.85 standard deviations below league average. Fix that and his EPA will be very high. It's certainly not his TD% or INT%. Lowest INT% in a rookie season for a starting QB (I think that means minimum 6+ games starting?.. not sure) is 0.87 held by Dak Prescott with 4 INT's in 459 attempts in 2016. Worth seeing if Tua can beat that.

"cbrad wrote:

If you look a bit more closely what's below average with Tua is Y/A, which I think is partly due to this team not having a WR that can threaten deep (I keep saying that's one of the top priorities this offseason) and also partly because of play calling.

Tua's Y/A is 6.7 right now which is 0.85 standard deviations below league average. Fix that and his EPA will be very high. It's certainly not his TD% or INT%. Lowest INT% in a rookie season for a starting QB (I think that means minimum 6+ games starting?.. not sure) is 0.87 held by Dak Prescott with 4 INT's in 459 attempts in 2016. Worth seeing if Tua can beat that.

Another issue could be that his 5 TD passes may not have added a relatively large number of expected points due to the fact that the longest of them was from 11 yards out (the others were from 9, 3, 3, and 2). The average EPA for those plays alone is 2.4. Don't know how that compares to the league norm, however. Mix that with the low YPA you mentioned and his percentage of high-EPA plays has likely been relatively small.

That's another problem with passer rating BTW. A running back can reel off a 98-yard run down to the 1 yard line, and if the QB throws a 1-yard TD pass from there, he gets "all" the credit for the TD with regard to passer rating. EPA on the other hand accounts for that.

Small sample size, but another issue is that DeVante Parker's yards per target have gone from 9.1 with Fitzpatrick to 6.1 with Tua. I suspect that's because Tua is playing a more conservative game as opposed to Fitzpatrick's "heave it up and have Parker go get it" style.

"The Guy wrote:

Small sample size, but another issue is that DeVante Parker's yards per target have gone from 9.1 with Fitzpatrick to 6.1 with Tua. I suspect that's because Tua is playing a more conservative game as opposed to Fitzpatrick's "heave it up and have Parker go get it" style.

Parker hasnt been right lately. That hamstring injury has him playing at reduced speed.

Update on Tua stats after his worst game so far: passer rating after 97 attempts is 100.1. Hopefully the benching today is only temporary and we'll have sufficient passing attempts for the rating to mean something. League average is 94.6.

Oh, and though it's due in good part to luck, he's 6-0 now with TD's to INT's lol. The worst stat with Tua so far is still his meager 6.2 Y/A. League average is 7.3.

Here are some other stats for weeks 8 through 10 (not this week):

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This week's EPA per play was -0.28 and CPOE was -4.7, so he'll be worse when these stats are updated.

His passer rating is being inflated by easy TD passes and luck with regard to INTs like cbrad pointed out.

Update: Tua's rating after 136 attempts is 99.45. League average is 93.3. I think after his next start we can do some really preliminary statistical analysis, like where the rating (after adjustment) stands relative to other rookies, etc.

Still amazing he has no INT's. Guy has lots of luck, but I wonder if there's something about his throwing motion or style that's naturally making it just a tad bit harder to intercept? Who knows.

Notice Herbert:

So, Tua now has a 95.24 rating after 184 passing attempts. Compare that to 89.9 for Burrow (404 attempts) and 94.2 for Herbert (455 attempts, though he's going to play another one now). League average is 93.3.

In terms of z-scores Tua is at 0.155. That's useful because z-scores are era adjusted and you can compare to all rookie QB's with 150+ passing attempts since 1978 (the year the passing game changed due to rule changes). For some reason this site isn't showing images correctly right now, but check out the graph here:
https://ibb.co/2M2g6VS

The average z-score for a rookie QB with 150+ passing attempts is -0.5755, and the standard deviation of that rookie QB z-score distribution is 1.0767. That means Tua is top 75th percentile among rookies at this stage. The correlation between rookie z-score ratings and career ratings is 0.4893.

Tua's rating for the year went down a bit after today even though he played well overall (that INT hurt him). He's now at 92.54 for the year compared to 96.3 for Herbert. Still pretty good for a rookie. Tua is top 69th percentile right now among all rookies with 150+ passing attempts.

Too bad the QB rating don't take into account talent around the QB.

"Ronnie Bass wrote:

Too bad the QB rating don't take into account talent around the QB.

It does, but unfortunately there’s no way of knowing how much it does from one quarterback to the next.

"The Guy wrote:

It does, but unfortunately there’s no way of knowing how much it does from one quarterback to the next.

How does it do that?

"Ronnie Bass wrote:

How does it do that?

Well, I would argue it does it unintentionally. Passer rating is going to automatically favor QBs with better talent around them. Better receivers catch more passes and are more productive than average or below average receivers, so QBs who have great receivers and/or tight end are usually going to put up better numbers, thereby increasing passer rating.

But I don't think that most people really understand that about passer rating.

"resnor wrote:

Well, I would argue it does it unintentionally. Passer rating is going to automatically favor QBs with better talent around them. Better receivers catch more passes and are more productive than average or below average receivers, so QBs who have great receivers and/or tight end are usually going to put up better numbers, thereby increasing passer rating.

But I don't think that most people really understand that about passer rating.

Well that goes without saying with just about all QB stats including the QB rating, but it doesn't take into account of the talent around the QB but the talent does help influence the ratings.

"Ronnie Bass wrote:

Well that goes without saying with just about all QB stats including the QB rating, but it doesn't take into account of the talent around the QB but the talent does help influence the ratings.

Yeah, for me it's just sort of intuitive, in that when I see the leaders for passer rating, I expect that those guys have some serious receiving targets they're throwing to. I never expect that some guy in the top 5 or 10 is on team throwing to a bunch of average at best receivers.

Here’s a hypothetical
Dolphins trade tua swap 1st rd picks a 2nd and 3rd to Jacksonville for the #1 pick and take lawerance. Who would do it

I might @13022.. Tua doesn't look like I expected in fact he looks slow right now. Maybe the games to fast for him, maybe hes worried about his health, maybe its alot of things but hes the QB and I don't see FIRE in him. Fitz, Jay Feilder, Marino all have / Had Fire in their eyes. I don't see that in TUA right now.

It seems hes ok if we win or ok if we loose.

I was not for the draft pick at all. We have him but I really don't see a top draft pick atm. I like him off the field but please prove me wrong because at this point I still don't see it.

Not sure if this was Tua's last game this season, but statistically he's been OK so far. His rating is now 93.2 when the league average is 93.8, and compared to all rookies with 150+ passing attempts since 1978 he's top 70th percentile.

Not seeing the arm talent. Seeing everything else though. Smaller windows on the nfl requires a big arm. I think he’s smart and knows that. That’s why he’s not risking some throws that qbs with bigger arms do.