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Tua Analytics Thread

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The Guy, Oct 21, 2020.

  1. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Here's a start in anticipation of his taking over as the starter soon. After he plays we can use this thread to do an analytics-based evaluation of his performance.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...e-top-quarterbacks-taken-in-this-years-draft/
     
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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Obviously one game means nothing, but it wasn't a good start.

    12 for 22, 93 yards, 4.2 yards per pass, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 1 sack.

    Passer rating = 80.3 [that's very poor]

    EPA per play = -0.45 [that's extremely poor]

    CPOE = -16.7 [that's extremely poor]

    None of us knows how he'll play the rest of the year of course, but if he played at that level the rest of the year, it wouldn't be surprising if the team lost the remainder of its games. That's how poor that is, and the degree to which that kind of performance at the quarterback position can affect a team.

    The team won today by way of its defense, turnovers, lucky "bounces" after turnovers, and a punt return TD. The degree of benefit they experienced from those factors probably won't occur again in a single game all season.
     
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  3. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    The team played well on defense and specialty teams and Tua was fortunate his play wasn't the difference maker today.I hope he can build on this and get going with his skills.
     
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  4. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Too short of a sample to really know what we have. He didn’t play well but didn’t have a lot of help. I’m still of the same I opinion I was pre-draft, Herbert is the better QB. Hopefully he improves and we don’t have to have that discussion again.
     
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  5. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    "QBs against the Rams: 116 of 181, 64.1-percent, 5 TD, 4 INT, 6.2 Y/A, 5.75 adjusted Y/A, 4.9 net yards per attempt, 81.3 passer rating and LA ranks third in pass defense DVOA."
     
  6. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The passer rating surrendered by the Rams this season prior to today was 84.6, so the strength of their pass defense should certainly be considered when evaluating Tua.
     
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  7. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Active Member

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    The Rams D-line was extremely hungry today. Aaron Donald was particularly hangry and scared me at times. We'll know a lot about Tua in next week's game if we see tippy toes in the pocket. We'll know more about our O-line if we see them bounce back strong. For a team with so many young players, it was a great opportunity to learn about what you have and figure out what you need. Personally, I think we bounce back strong.
     
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  8. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    .........please....no.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2020
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  9. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This week's games only:

    Week 8.png
     
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  10. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  11. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Tua's pretty close to the former league MVP, Lamar Jackson so things are looking great :D :D :D
     
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  12. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Here's how it looks if you add the whole season -- Tua's in another galaxy:

    Season.png
     

    Attached Files:

  13. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Why?
    We are talking about a top 5 pick, one that will make or break this offense.

    I'd much rather debate this than Ryan Tannehill. 7 years of that was enough. Time to drill down down in to how Tua performs.

    For the record I LOVE Tua and was all over the idea of drafting him.

    But, with 2 first round picks and a guy like Lawrence potentially in play (although I'd say odds are less than 5%), you have to have this discussion.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 2, 2020
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  14. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    They were also missing Jalen Ramsey so take that in to consideration.
     
  15. Hexonx

    Hexonx Active Member

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    One game relax, lets have this discussion at the end of the year.
     
  16. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The idea is to take a look week to week throughout the rest of the year.
     
  17. Hexonx

    Hexonx Active Member

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    It counter productive especially when you are looking at statistics. The sample size isn't even worthy of evaluating until minimum of 8 games and even then I doubt we are even massaging the data properly.
     
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  18. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    ... and so it begins :pity:

    Analytics. Ruining sports since... well, they became relevant.
     
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  19. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That wasn't a game where statistical analysis of his play is relevant as for most of the game. His goals weren't what the models that measure QB success are built Tua judge for the majority of the game.

    Tua finished the 1st quarter with the TD drive to tie the game 7 to 7. The Dolphins had 5 offensive snaps in the entire 2nd quarter. A fumble, followed by the three and out where Williams dropped the only 2 passes Tua threw, and a 1 yard TD run. After that, the Dolphins were up 28-10 for the second half.

    At that point, his only job was to snap the ball with as little left on the play clock as possible, and not turn the ball over. Agree or disagree with the reasoning, its hard to deny that is what happened. It also happened with Fitz the previous 2 weeks.
     
  20. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    It was his first start in nearly a year. He is a rookie. He was going against one of the best defensive units in the league. He was going against the best defensive lineman, maybe player, in the league.

    I'm not going to over evaluate nor pull a Chicken Little either. He will be fine. I am simply looking for improvement week to week.
     
  21. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    OK.. analytics aside, we have our franchise QB. I think everyone who dissed Tua needs to re-evaluate the way they evaluate QB's because Tua is going to be great. Stats? He's now at 103.8 after 52 passing attempts (which means it's highly unreliable due to small sample size, but I would not be surprised at all if that means he's going to end up higher!)

    It's really looking like we have our QB and HC. The Dolphins are back!
     
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  22. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Active Member

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    Our QB. Our HC. A metric crap-ton of assets. And we're at least a year (maybe 2) early in what I figured would be a four-year rebuild. We have the chance to be sustainably competitive for a decade.

     
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  23. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  24. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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  25. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Might as well update Tua's stats. He now has a rating of 104.8 after 77 attempts. As I always say wait till ~150 attempts to make much of passer rating, but the guy is definitely on the right track (and this is a rookie).
     
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  26. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What this shows below is that the Dolphins' EPA per pass dropback has decreased from 0.233 with Fitzpatrick to 0.109 with Tua.

    Fitzpatrick's figure was 0.71 standard deviations above league average, whereas Tua's is 0.29 standard deviations below it.

    That's a difference of a standard deviation, which is significant. The Dolphins are going to need to either keep playing as well as they have been on defense and special teams, or Tua and the passing game are going to have to increase their production. It can't be neither if they want to keep winning like they have been.

    Tua.png
     
  27. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    My analytics say Tua is 3-0 and Burrow/Herbert are 3-12-1.
     
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  28. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    If you look a bit more closely what's below average with Tua is Y/A, which I think is partly due to this team not having a WR that can threaten deep (I keep saying that's one of the top priorities this offseason) and also partly because of play calling.

    Tua's Y/A is 6.7 right now which is 0.85 standard deviations below league average. Fix that and his EPA will be very high. It's certainly not his TD% or INT%. Lowest INT% in a rookie season for a starting QB (I think that means minimum 6+ games starting?.. not sure) is 0.87 held by Dak Prescott with 4 INT's in 459 attempts in 2016. Worth seeing if Tua can beat that.
     
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  29. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Another issue could be that his 5 TD passes may not have added a relatively large number of expected points due to the fact that the longest of them was from 11 yards out (the others were from 9, 3, 3, and 2). The average EPA for those plays alone is 2.4. Don't know how that compares to the league norm, however. Mix that with the low YPA you mentioned and his percentage of high-EPA plays has likely been relatively small.

    That's another problem with passer rating BTW. A running back can reel off a 98-yard run down to the 1 yard line, and if the QB throws a 1-yard TD pass from there, he gets "all" the credit for the TD with regard to passer rating. EPA on the other hand accounts for that.
     
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  30. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Small sample size, but another issue is that DeVante Parker's yards per target have gone from 9.1 with Fitzpatrick to 6.1 with Tua. I suspect that's because Tua is playing a more conservative game as opposed to Fitzpatrick's "heave it up and have Parker go get it" style.
     
  31. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Parker hasnt been right lately. That hamstring injury has him playing at reduced speed.
     
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  32. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Update on Tua stats after his worst game so far: passer rating after 97 attempts is 100.1. Hopefully the benching today is only temporary and we'll have sufficient passing attempts for the rating to mean something. League average is 94.6.

    Oh, and though it's due in good part to luck, he's 6-0 now with TD's to INT's lol. The worst stat with Tua so far is still his meager 6.2 Y/A. League average is 7.3.
     
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  33. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Here are some other stats for weeks 8 through 10 (not this week):

    Tua.png

    This week's EPA per play was -0.28 and CPOE was -4.7, so he'll be worse when these stats are updated.

    His passer rating is being inflated by easy TD passes and luck with regard to INTs like cbrad pointed out.
     
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  34. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  35. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Update: Tua's rating after 136 attempts is 99.45. League average is 93.3. I think after his next start we can do some really preliminary statistical analysis, like where the rating (after adjustment) stands relative to other rookies, etc.

    Still amazing he has no INT's. Guy has lots of luck, but I wonder if there's something about his throwing motion or style that's naturally making it just a tad bit harder to intercept? Who knows.
     
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  36. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Notice Herbert:
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    So, Tua now has a 95.24 rating after 184 passing attempts. Compare that to 89.9 for Burrow (404 attempts) and 94.2 for Herbert (455 attempts, though he's going to play another one now). League average is 93.3.

    In terms of z-scores Tua is at 0.155. That's useful because z-scores are era adjusted and you can compare to all rookie QB's with 150+ passing attempts since 1978 (the year the passing game changed due to rule changes). For some reason this site isn't showing images correctly right now, but check out the graph here:
    https://ibb.co/2M2g6VS

    The average z-score for a rookie QB with 150+ passing attempts is -0.5755, and the standard deviation of that rookie QB z-score distribution is 1.0767. That means Tua is top 75th percentile among rookies at this stage. The correlation between rookie z-score ratings and career ratings is 0.4893.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2020
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  38. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Tua's rating for the year went down a bit after today even though he played well overall (that INT hurt him). He's now at 92.54 for the year compared to 96.3 for Herbert. Still pretty good for a rookie. Tua is top 69th percentile right now among all rookies with 150+ passing attempts.
     
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  39. Ronnie Bass

    Ronnie Bass Luxury Box Luxury Box

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    Too bad the QB rating don't take into account talent around the QB.
     
  40. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Active Member

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