Tua Analytics Thread
58 replies
The GuyForum VeteranOPHere's a start in anticipation of his taking over as the starter soon. After he plays we can use this thread to do an analytics-based evaluation of his performance.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/
The NFL Is Drafting Quarterbacks All Wrong
Completion percentage is the performance measurable that best translates from college to the NFL. The metric’s shortcomings — players can pad their completion percentage with short, safe passes, for instance — are well-known. But even in its raw form, it’s a useful predictive tool.
Its kissing cousin in the pantheon of stats that translate from college to the pros is average depth of target: Passers who throw short (or deep) in college tend to continue that pattern in the NFL. These two metrics can be combined to create an expected completion percentage, which helps correct the deficiencies in raw completion percentage. If you give more credit to players who routinely complete deeper passes — and dock passers who dump off and check down more frequently — you can get a clearer picture of a player’s true accuracy and decision-making.
'https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/#fn-3'
Another important adjustment is to account for the level of competition a player faced. ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating does this, and we’re doing it, too. For instance, passes in the Big Ten are completed at a lower rate than in the Big 12 and the Pac-12. We should boost players from conferences where it is tougher to complete a pass and ding players whose numbers are generated in conferences where passing is easier.When we make these adjustments, and then subtract expected completion percentage from a QB’s actual completion percentage, we get a new metric: completion percentage over expected, or CPOE. An example: In 2011 at Wisconsin, Russell Wilson had a raw completion percentage of 73 percent. We would expect an average QB in the same conference who attempted the same number of passes at the same depths that Wilson attempted to have a completion percentage of just 57 percent. So Wilson posted an incredible CPOE of +16 percentage points in his last year of college. CPOE translates slightly less to the NFL than either raw completion percentage or average depth of target, but it does a substantially better job of predicting on-field production. In stat nerd parlance, we’ve traded a little stability for increased relevance.
Selected fifth overall by the Miami Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa is nearly as impressive as Burrow by the production metrics — at least on a per-play basis. Because of injuries, Tagovailoa attempted just 252 pass attempts in 2019 — half of Burrow’s volume.
Still, Tagovailoa’s 11.3 yards per attempt was half a yard better than Burrow’s, and his 0.69 EPA per pass attempt ranks No. 1 since at least 2011. And Tua is no one-hit wonder: His 2018 season ranks seventh by EPA per play since 2011, just behind Burrow’s 0.63 mark in 2019.
The GuyForum VeteranObviously one game means nothing, but it wasn't a good start.
12 for 22, 93 yards, 4.2 yards per pass, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 1 sack.
Passer rating = 80.3 [that's very poor]
EPA per play = -0.45 [that's extremely poor]
CPOE = -16.7 [that's extremely poor]
None of us knows how he'll play the rest of the year of course, but if he played at that level the rest of the year, it wouldn't be surprising if the team lost the remainder of its games. That's how poor that is, and the degree to which that kind of performance at the quarterback position can affect a team.
The team won today by way of its defense, turnovers, lucky "bounces" after turnovers, and a punt return TD. The degree of benefit they experienced from those factors probably won't occur again in a single game all season.
firedanForum VeteranThe team played well on defense and specialty teams and Tua was fortunate his play wasn't the difference maker today.I hope he can build on this and get going with his skills.
mlb1399Forum VeteranToo short of a sample to really know what we have. He didn’t play well but didn’t have a lot of help. I’m still of the same I opinion I was pre-draft, Herbert is the better QB. Hopefully he improves and we don’t have to have that discussion again.
GalantForum Veteran"QBs against the Rams: 116 of 181, 64.1-percent, 5 TD, 4 INT, 6.2 Y/A, 5.75 adjusted Y/A, 4.9 net yards per attempt, 81.3 passer rating and LA ranks third in pass defense DVOA."
"Although we are capable of great acts of kindness, history teaches us that we sometimes need saving from ourselves – from our recklessness or our greed. God sent into the world a unique person – neither a philosopher nor a general, important though they are, but a Saviour, with the power to forgive... It is my prayer that on this Christmas day we might all find room in our lives for the message of the angels and for the love of God through Christ our Lord." (Christmas message, 2011)
The GuyForum Veteran"Galant wrote:
"QBs against the Rams: 116 of 181, 64.1-percent, 5 TD, 4 INT, 6.2 Y/A, 5.75 adjusted Y/A, 4.9 net yards per attempt, 81.3 passer rating and LA ranks third in pass defense DVOA."
The passer rating surrendered by the Rams this season prior to today was 84.6, so the strength of their pass defense should certainly be considered when evaluating Tua.
OwesOwn614Forum VeteranThe Rams D-line was extremely hungry today. Aaron Donald was particularly hangry and scared me at times. We'll know a lot about Tua in next week's game if we see tippy toes in the pocket. We'll know more about our O-line if we see them bounce back strong. For a team with so many young players, it was a great opportunity to learn about what you have and figure out what you need. Personally, I think we bounce back strong.
BumrushSupporter"The Guy wrote:
This week's games only:
[ATTACH:full]
Tua's pretty close to the former league MVP, Lamar Jackson so things are looking great :D :D :D
The GuyForum Veteran"Bumrush wrote:
Tua's pretty close to the former league MVP, Lamar Jackson so things are looking great :D :D :D
Here's how it looks if you add the whole season -- Tua's in another galaxy:
[ATTACH:full]
BumrushSupporter"Sceeto wrote:
.........please....no.
Why?
We are talking about a top 5 pick, one that will make or break this offense.
I'd much rather debate this than Ryan Tannehill. 7 years of that was enough. Time to drill down down in to how Tua performs.
For the record I LOVE Tua and was all over the idea of drafting him.
But, with 2 first round picks and a guy like Lawrence potentially in play (although I'd say odds are less than 5%), you have to have this discussion.
BumrushSupporter"The Guy wrote:
The passer rating surrendered by the Rams this season prior to today was 84.6, so the strength of their pass defense should certainly be considered when evaluating Tua.
They were also missing Jalen Ramsey so take that in to consideration.
One game relax, lets have this discussion at the end of the year.
The GuyForum Veteran"Hexonx wrote:
One game relax, lets have this discussion at the end of the year.
The idea is to take a look week to week throughout the rest of the year.
"The Guy wrote:
The idea is to take a look week to week throughout the rest of the year.
It counter productive especially when you are looking at statistics. The sample size isn't even worthy of evaluating until minimum of 8 games and even then I doubt we are even massaging the data properly.
brandon27Supporter... and so it begins :pity:
Analytics. Ruining sports since... well, they became relevant.
1972 Miami Dolphins-The ONLY undefeated team in NFL history!!!
Two TacosSupporterThat wasn't a game where statistical analysis of his play is relevant as for most of the game. His goals weren't what the models that measure QB success are built Tua judge for the majority of the game.
Tua finished the 1st quarter with the TD drive to tie the game 7 to 7. The Dolphins had 5 offensive snaps in the entire 2nd quarter. A fumble, followed by the three and out where Williams dropped the only 2 passes Tua threw, and a 1 yard TD run. After that, the Dolphins were up 28-10 for the second half.
At that point, his only job was to snap the ball with as little left on the play clock as possible, and not turn the ball over. Agree or disagree with the reasoning, its hard to deny that is what happened. It also happened with Fitz the previous 2 weeks.
________________________________________
"It's a bunch of drunk, mid-30s type of crowd who are very well-educated," Evans said. "Much more vocal. A little bit more crazy. It's a little nastier playing down there, to be honest."
--Sounders Midfielder Brad Evans on Portland vs Seattle Fans--
Tin IndianForum VeteranIt was his first start in nearly a year. He is a rookie. He was going against one of the best defensive units in the league. He was going against the best defensive lineman, maybe player, in the league.
I'm not going to over evaluate nor pull a Chicken Little either. He will be fine. I am simply looking for improvement week to week.
Not My Circus, Not My Monkeys.
OK.. analytics aside, we have our franchise QB. I think everyone who dissed Tua needs to re-evaluate the way they evaluate QB's because Tua is going to be great. Stats? He's now at 103.8 after 52 passing attempts (which means it's highly unreliable due to small sample size, but I would not be surprised at all if that means he's going to end up higher!)
It's really looking like we have our QB and HC. The Dolphins are back!
OwesOwn614Forum Veteran"cbrad wrote:
OK.. analytics aside, we have our franchise QB. I think everyone who dissed Tua needs to re-evaluate the way they evaluate QB's because Tua is going to be great. Stats? He's now at 103.8 after 52 passing attempts (which means it's highly unreliable due to small sample size, but I would not be surprised at all if that means he's going to end up higher!)
It's really looking like we have our QB and HC. The Dolphins are back!
Our QB. Our HC. A metric crap-ton of assets. And we're at least a year (maybe 2) early in what I figured would be a four-year rebuild. We have the chance to be sustainably competitive for a decade.
The GuyForum VeteranThis is a good rundown of the Cardinals game with some analytics thrown in:
mlb1399Forum VeteranI really enjoyed this breakdown on PFF:
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-rookie-qb-tua-tagovailoa-miami-dolphins-playoffs-2020-week-9-afc-east-standings
Might as well update Tua's stats. He now has a rating of 104.8 after 77 attempts. As I always say wait till ~150 attempts to make much of passer rating, but the guy is definitely on the right track (and this is a rookie).