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Tough Season Ahead- Hindsight is Always 20/20

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Sep 3, 2019.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Although it's pretty common for "fire the coach" threads in Miami, I think this is the first time some of you wanted the coach gone before we actually played a football game. So I wanted to give a quick reminder, a public service message if you will, what was to be expected when Gase was fired because, "He wanted to win now".

    Flores and Grier convinced Ross the only way to be a perennial contender was to shed off all our veteran talent to stockpile draft picks. I personally hated the idea because it meant several years of horrible football without any guarantees that we'll draft the right players. If you remember, I said, "You think the Dolphins suck now? Just wait six months to see what sucking really looks like..."

    I'm not bringing this up to brag because there's nothing here to brag about- this year is going to suck badly. Instead, I'm bringing it up because this is exactly what most of you wanted; to shuffle up the roster, to go full rebuild mode, and hopefully grab a franchise quarterback while fixing other holes that have been there for a very long time.

    There was only one way to do that quickly and it was saying goodbye to players we cared about- Wake, RT, Tunsil, TJ, Stills, Kiko, Denney. Luckily we kept Howard and Minkah since they would have brought several more 1st rounders.

    For better or worse, this is what you wanted Dolphins fans. All we can do is keep an eye on the prize in 2021 when the roster will be made up of almost entirely rookie contracts. And hey, maybe we'll be competitive in 2020....but this year's going to be down-right ugly.
     
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2019
  2. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The uglier it is, the better.

    Trust the process.
     
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  3. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Gase is fired: A New Hope
    The shakeup happens: The Empire Strike Back
    The Franchise QB is found and team begins to build: Return of the Jedi

    ......unless a franchise QB isn't happen and we draft Jar Jar Binks, then it's the prequels and we're screwed.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Hindsight is always "2020" you mean, as in.. we'll look back in 2020 when we pick our franchise QB with the 1st pick and say the tanking (official or not) was totally worth it.

    Only thing that would make this season tough for me is if we either go 0-16 (people remember stuff like that.. no one cares about 1-15) or we miss out on the 1st pick and instead pick 3rd or 4th or so.. which would create some anxiety for me.

    Otherwise, I just hope that one of our wins is against Gase.
     
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  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I'm really hoping we catch Baltimore by surprise and put up a few Grant/Wilson long TD's or a few bursts up the middle by Drake and company. Our run game is going to be better than expected (AKA, not deplorable) and I think we'll stay on the ground a whole lot, plus that secondary is still stout with ball-hogs. So we have a game plan at least to win some ballgames and I'd think Flores would take some risks in week 1 to get that monkey off their back with his 1st win.

    Week 2 is New England and he has even more reason to want to win there, so maybe we see the Miracle in Miami, Part II. I really think we'll get a W in one of those two games despite being the worse team.

    The line is going to be an absolute mess though- our starting tackles may end up being the two we signed this past weekend (that don't know the playbook). So expect a lot of runs off center and keep your fingers crossed...it's our only hope early on until these guys figure some stuff out. The only other route to victory is Minkah, Howard and Jones doing all the scoring...which is entirely possible in a tight defensive battle.
     
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  6. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I’m always in support of any Star Wars reference well played sir.

    Back to the OP, I was in the small group who didn’t want Gase gone but knew Tannehill wasn’t the answer. I got behind the new regime because we made the decision to move on from Gase and felt like we had tried to build our franchise the wrong way for so long.

    I knew this year was gonna be long but liked that we had some long term pieces to build around. Still don’t love the Tunsil trade because it now sets us back even further. If Houston has another good season, which would be expected with their moves and Luck retiring, these draft picks aren’t as valuable as they seem on paper. Maybe Grier/Flores believe we need 5 solid/good OL vs 1-2 dominant one with fillers in the other spots. That certainly seems to be NE’s recipe.

    At this point, I have no other choice but to be on board. Having said that, they haven’t given me much of an incentive to watch this team this year. I’m guessing I’m not the only one in that spot. They’ve made a HUGE gamble and only time will tell if they’re the heroes we’ve been waiting for or the villains in a long line of villains that have kept this franchise as a bottom dweller for almost 2 decades.
     
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  7. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    My main goal is not to be frustrated/disgusted by week. One early win would help but I don' see it happening. If i knew we weren't going to take Tua with the first overall pick I would be more okay with all the losses.
     
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  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I felt the same with Tannehill and Gase- can you imagine RT behind THIS LINE in 2019? Oh goodness, that gives me chills just thinking about it. I was a Gase fan because he's always done the most with what he had at the time- so we'll see if Flores can do the same.

    I'm definitely willing to give the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise....I'm 100% on board as well because there's nothing else to do except maybe root for the Jets? I wish Gase luck but I still hate the skinkin Jets, so the only option left is to believe in Flores until I can't anymore.
     
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  9. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    ...he's gonna take his horse to the Flores road, he's gonna ride till he can't no more...

    (Don't worry, I'll get my coat)
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    LOL, you should have stopped while the Force was with you...
     
  11. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Its not what I wanted at all and it's a recipe for long term failure IMO.
     
  12. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Sadly not....

    I give you - the Flores Road

    We got the Dolphins cutting back
    Rosen's butt is sat,
    Uniform in aqua
    With the orange stripes to match
    Ridin' on with Flores
    You can whip your Jets Gase,
    We going in the valley but
    You ain't never goin nowhere

    Can't nobody tell us nothin'
    You can't tell us nothin'
    Can't nobody tell us nothin'
    You can't tell us nothin'

    Ridin' on a tank, yeah
    Picks gathered for the draft year
    Cheated on Cam Wake, and,
    On Tunsil and our snapper
    Our life is a movie
    Major League and Draft Day,
    2019 won't be funny -
    But just watch us draft that QB!

    Can't nobody tell us nothin'
    You can't tell us nothin'
    Can't nobody tell us nothin'
    You can't tell us nothin'

    Yeah, I'm gonna take my horse down the Flores road
    I'm gonna ride 'til I can't no more
    I'm gonna take my horse to down the Flores road
    I'm gonna ride 'til I can't no more
     
  13. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    As a writer that makes my brain hurt! LOL, but I refuse to edit it into a proper tune!
     
  14. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    It was a quick 15 minute moment of questionable inspiration. What can I say?
     
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  15. shadokp

    shadokp Active Member

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    To me I feel every year we are only a couple of steps away from being a contender. And then in order to take those steps the team first takes several steps backwards and suddenly we are back where we started. Building to me feels like a multi year process but now we have to start from scratch practically yet again. We will get to that one or two steps away again and get rid of good players to acquire other good players.

    I find it odd that a lot of people put us as last in the league for this year even before the trade. We were 7-9 last year and according to many here, have upgraded the QB position and have a better coach but we are now the worst??

    I can never back a team that tanks on purpose. Anything can happen and if we win 4-5 games to start with are fans going to start complaining that we are winning too many? I understand the want for 1st round pick but we have had high picks in the past and it has done nothing. i feel the odds are better to take a 7-9 team and try to win the following year than it is to hope some 1st round QB will be enough to win years from now.
     
  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree- gutting a roster is a MASSIVE gamble that won't always pay off. But that's the path we're on now and there's no turning back. And I don't think we'll lose on purpose but with this talent level in the trenches, I'm not sure if we beat anyone naturally without a huge play or two. Sadly, every win will be Miami Miracles this season.

    My only real problem with all of this is that the line is the most important part of the team- a good offensive line opens up everything else. A great D line creates pressure and gets your offense back on the field. If we can't run or stop the run, its impossible to control the clock and almost impossible to win. That's likely where we're at today unless our new line coaches are literal wizards of the Harry Potter variety. You can win with an okay QB (Fitz) and a solid line, but you'll rarely win when the opposite is true. That line is everything in the NFL.

    Am I happy? I don't think I am, but I'm resigned to seeing a horrible year and likely walking away by halftime most weeks. Meanwhile, I'm going to pick a new temporary favorite team and root for them for the next few seasons to make the dread a little less bearable. So far I'm thinking Cleveland but I really have no idea yet....this isn't something I want to do. But Grier is forcing us to and that really sucks.
     
  17. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Vegas put our total wins at either 5 or 5.5 for most of the time until it went down to 4.5 (before the trade.. after the trade it's still at 4.5 but the moneyline changed a bit). That ~2 point drop is consistent with Vegas thinking our QB situation went from a starter to a backup, and regardless of what some posters here may think about Fitz and Rosen I think most people in the NFL think Tannehill is better than those two, at least in recent years. Maybe not as big a difference as a typical "starter" to a "backup", but I think that's the most likely culprit.

    And coach? No way oddsmakers would think that a new rookie HC is better than even an average coach. The odds are against any rookie HC succeeding if you just go by statistics. So maybe the second reason is having a rookie coach. Finally, we did get rid of some remaining talent on the team so put it all together and 4.5 makes sense IMO.
     
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  18. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    I don't care if we only win 2 games this year. So long as they are both against the jesters.

    I'll be happy if I see some good coaching. In game adjustments, clock management, control the team. Some player development, guys growing into their jobs. And beat the jest.

    With the draft capitol we already have we don't need the #1 pick to do whatever they want next year. What they should do is leverage what they have in to more picks, pick a QB rd 1 for the next three years until they find the one and build a wall in front of him. Marino was 23rd pick. #1 overall is no Guarantee of anything.
     
  19. Xeticus

    Xeticus Junior Member

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    I think we could have done things very differently and not end up with this dumpster fire. When the draft happened and our pick came up and I saw that Dwayne Haskins was available I was excited. New coach, new young quarterback, along with our existing talent.It could have been the start of new beginning. But we then skipped that and picked up Arizona's cast off and our fate was sealed. If we do get a good qb in the draft next year and some supporting talent it will be a couple of years after that before those players are ready and we are competitive. And trading away our young, starting left tackle? If we do get a good qb then how do we protect him? This year has set us back quite a bit. Maybe we are competitive in 2021 at the earliest. This going to be a really rough ride.
     
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  20. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Marino would have went a lot higher if he didnt have character concerns and cocaine rumors.

    Aaron Rodgers is probably a better example...and another guy we passed on.
     
  21. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    I need a valium the size of a golfball.
     
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  22. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores

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    We could have drafted Lamar Jackson, which is something I wanted us to do. People said he can’t throw. Well, it looked like he threw the ball pretty damn good yesterday.
     
  23. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I was happy about our approach and I still am. I believe you can turn around a franchise in 2 years if you draft well and that it's pointless without an above-average QB (which Tannehill wasn't).

    If Miami gets a top QB prospect (hopefully Tua) and they end up using their other picks on good prospects this can quickly turn into a really good team. I have faith in the players we have: X, Minkah, Baker, Wilkins, etc.

    We just need more like that.

    What we saw yesterday is what a potentially high-octane offense will do to you when you can't rush the passer. We had no rush yesterday and consequently made another un-proven QB look stellar. We did the same thing with Geno Smith if you remember. He posted a perfect passer rating late in the year against Miami a few years back.

    That's what happens when you don't pressure the QB and he has all day. He's either going to pick you apart or just go over-the-top as your otherwise-dependable DB's slowly get beaten.

    What's complicated about that?

    The answer is building a better roster. We'll do that. But for a lot of reasons we need to make sure we find a QB and that'll probably be the first pick in 2020. I'm for that, too.
     
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  24. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores

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    Things probably don’t get any worse than this. We are at rock bottom and only have up to go from here.
     
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  25. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    The Browns were 1-15 in 2016 and 0-16 in 2017. This year they hot pick to really make noise.

    Things can turn around fast with the right people.
     
  26. schisno

    schisno Well-Known Member

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    Dolphins fans should know this better than most. In 2007 Dolphins went 1-15 in Cam Cameron's only season as HC.

    Then they fired Randy Mueller, and brought in Jeff Ireland and Tony Sparano. They released popular players like Zach Thomas and traded Jason Taylor for a second rounder, then went out and signed veterans and drafted players that could fit into their philosophy. Now they did bring in the Wildcat and that worked for all of one season but the Dolphins have really been sitting in that mediocre range of 6-10/7-9/8-8 seasons since.

    Chad Pennington was the perfect bridge QB during that season, but they didn't draft the right QB to groom and take over. Once again hindsight is 20/20. Would it have been different if the Dolphins drafted Matt Ryan over Jake Long? Do you get a guy who protects the most valuable position first, or do you find your franchise QB first?

    In my opinion you need to find a true franchise quarterback and then you can throw a ton of money at a tackle and draft his replacement if you want someone to protect your QB for a decade. That decade comes after you've established you have a guy who makes players around him better.

    Even in 2007 they had that opportunity to get a guy that was sliding down the draft boards. You know, that nobody Aaron Rodgers instead of waiting for John Beck in round two.
     
  27. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I think the main issue is we’ve never been in a good position to draft a franchise QB. Our best chance was Matt Ryan and we opted for a LT. That’s one of the issues with trying to plug holes through FA and maintaining mediocrity.

    That and we've missed on so many draft picks, especially on the OL.
     
  28. Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    Nick Saban had a shot at both Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers and passed on them both for Daunte Culpepper. That was pretty much the end of the Dolphins franchise right there.
     
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  29. schisno

    schisno Well-Known Member

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    I think believe that was Randy Mueller and Cam Cameron that missed on Aaron Rodgers when they grabbed Ronnie Brown with the #2 pick, and John Beck in round two. When they could have traded back in for Rodgers instead of letting him slip to #24.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I think it's worth pointing out how rare it is for ANY team to be in position to draft a franchise QB. We rightfully pan our FO's ability to find one but a lot of this is just due to most drafts not including a QB that turns out to produce at a consistently well above average level (allowing for random variation of course). Just look at the draft history for QB's:
    http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb

    We can start from 2008 where Matt Ryan checks that box. He's consistently above average but not great by any means.

    But what about 2009 or 2010? Nothing. 2011? Cam Newton? Not if you go by actual production. He's not special even after including his running ability, and he's certainly not consistent. So really nothing from 2009-2011.

    In 2012 the only QB that checks that box is Russell Wilson who actually is great. Luck "looked" good but production-wise he was only a tad above average, and of course he doesn't even have the longevity. So from 2008-2012 it's only Ryan and Wilson.

    Then you have 2013 and 2014 where there are also no franchise QB's. Same is apparently true for 2015 where you had hot prospects in Winston and Mariota but both are proving they are basically just "average". So from 2008-2015 basically only Ryan and Wilson.

    From 2016 you seem to have a few: it's really hard to imagine Mahomes won't be great but we'll see. In any case, I guess all I'm saying is that one important reason teams miss on finding a franchise QB is because there's maybe on average 1 every few years that comes out. So it's not just talent evaluation, it's lack of opportunity for all teams in the draft.
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2019
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  31. schisno

    schisno Well-Known Member

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    I was wrong, you're right. It was Nick Saban who missed. I knew he was leaving or nearing the end of his term here.
     
  32. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And that combined with the fact that the quarterback position is so important is exactly why I’m on board with the tanking effort, because the team is doing this at the right time, when there will likely be a quarterback available who projects to be the kind you’re talking about.
     
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  33. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    If you remember, Saban wanted Brees but our medical staff didn’t think he’d recover from his shoulder issue. And yeah, a lot of teams missed on Rodgers. And we fell for another classic blunder of drafting RB in the top 3.
     
  34. Xeticus

    Xeticus Junior Member

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    I agree. QB's are the hardest to find. You ALWAYS take a swing to get a franchise one. You never settle for good enough if you have a chance to draft one. To me that is what this Josh Rosen deal was. Maybe good enough. Now it looks to me like we wasted a 2nd round draft pick. We had a high first round pick this year and could have gotten a first round QB. Instead we are going to waste this entire season and hope to get a good one next year. I'm not a fan of this at all.
     
  35. Makados10

    Makados10 Active Member

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    Maybe this has been Grier's plan all along.... draft all the QBs!
     

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