Top 12 in 2007, the good, the mediocre, and the ugly

How in the world did we pass on Willis?

"BuckeyeKing wrote:

How in the world did we pass on Willis?

:deadhorse:

"BuckeyeKing wrote:

How in the world did we pass on Willis?

Zach..Thomas.

Keeping those aged, but beloved Vets on the roster as Starters comes at a price BK.

In 06, the Defense was great, we had brought in Capers to replace lil nicky, the thinking was the offense needed more firepower due to losing 5 games or so by 2 pts or less in 06..and the D was top 10...

"padre31 wrote:

Zach..Thomas.

Keeping those aged, but beloved Vets on the roster as Starters comes at a price BK.

In 06, the Defense was great, we had brought in Capers to replace lil nicky, the thinking was the offense needed more firepower due to losing 5 games or so by 2 pts or less in 06..and the D was top 10...

That's not quite accurate...

You can draft someone's replacement without getting rid of them.... Drafting Willis didn't mean we had to cut Zach. Willis could taken Crowders spot until we were ready to let Zach go

check out rd #2:

33 Arizona Cardinals (from Oakland) [16] Alan Branch Defensive tackle Michigan
34 Buffalo Bills (from Detroit) [17] Paul Posluszny Linebacker Penn State
35 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Arron Sears Offensive guard Tennessee
36 Philadelphia Eagles (from Cleveland through Dallas) [12][14] Kevin Kolb Quarterback Houston
37 San Diego Chargers ( Eric Weddle Safety Utah
38 Oakland Raiders (from Arizona) [16] Zach Miller Tight end Arizona State
39 Atlanta Falcons (from Houston) [9] Justin Blalock Offensive guard Texas
40 Miami Dolphins John Beck Quarterback Brigham Young
41 Atlanta Falcons (from Minnesota) [19] Chris Houston Cornerback Arkansas
42 Indianapolis Colts (from San Francisco) [20] Tony Ugoh Offensive tackle Arkansas
43 Detroit Lions (from Buffalo) [17] Drew Stanton Quarterback Michigan State
44 Minnesota Vikings (from Atlanta) [19] Sidney Rice† Wide receiver South Carolina
45 Carolina Panthers Dwayne Jarrett Wide receiver USC
46 Pittsburgh Steelers LaMarr Woodley† Defensive end Michigan
47 New York Jets (from Green Bay) [21] David Harris Linebacker Michigan
48 Jacksonville Jaguars Justin Durant Linebacker Hampton
49 Cincinnati Bengals Kenny Irons Running back Auburn
50 Tennessee Titans Chris Henry Running back Arizona
51 New York Giants Steve Smith† Wide receiver USC
52 St. Louis Rams Brian Leonard

There is a selection of busts, Pro Bowlers, and decent players on that list:

-Alan Branch..the ugly
-Tony Ugoh..went ugly

Fun stuff.

If I've learned anything from looking at that list it is Draft choices are not the precious pearls they are made out to be prior to the draft..but that doesn't mean you torch them ala Washington, but DO keep some perspective on their real world value.

"padre31 wrote:

Zach..Thomas.

Keeping those aged, but beloved Vets on the roster as Starters comes at a price BK.

In 06, the Defense was great, we had brought in Capers to replace lil nicky, the thinking was the offense needed more firepower due to losing 5 games or so by 2 pts or less in 06..and the D was top 10...

nope
we had a 2 point loss to Houston
two 3 point losses to the jets
a 5 point loss at indy
all the other losses were 10 or more
in '06

regardless and back on topic i was livid when we didn't draft willis
zach had taken a beating and delivered more than a few for ten years at the time
i always preach young players replacing the older players
this is another example

"Killerphins wrote:

nope
we had a 2 point loss to Houston
two 3 point losses to the jets
a 5 point loss at indy
all the other losses were 10 or more
in '06

regardless and back on topic i was livid when we didn't draft willis
zach had taken a beating and delivered more than a few for ten years at the time
i always preach young players replacing the older players
this is another example

You probably have the most interesting grammar skills I have ever seen (no offense) but you often make a lot of sense, to me at least. I agree with your thoughts here.

"Killerphins wrote:

nope
we had a 2 point loss to Houston
two 3 point losses to the jets
a 5 point loss at indy
all the other losses were 10 or more
in '06

regardless and back on topic i was livid when we didn't draft willis
zach had taken a beating and delivered more than a few for ten years at the time
i always preach young players replacing the older players
this is another example

Okay..3 games:

Texans by 2
Jets by 3
Jets by 3 twice

The "D" ranked 5th in points allowed, the offense 29th, which is 'why" Ted Ginn was selected #9 and Cam Cameron was hired and Joey Porter was brought in to facilitate the switch the thoroughly crappy in Miami 3-4 defense.

But no matter, Zach T was coming off of a 100 tackle season and pro bowl birth..he was 33..

I'm beginning to feel you a bit about youth KillahP, however, to rely solely on youth is a mistake, and a large one, they don't know how to win games and imho fans, the Organization, and Teammates should not suffer so "Joe Rookie can learn and be good 2 yrs from now".

Imho, that is bull****.

"padre31 wrote:

Okay..3 games:

Texans by 2
Jets by 3
Jets by 3 twice

The "D" ranked 5th in points allowed, the offense 29th, which is 'why" Ted Ginn was selected #9 and Cam Cameron was hired and Joey Porter was brought in to facilitate the switch the thoroughly crappy in Miami 3-4 defense.

But no matter, Zach T was coming off of a 100 tackle season and pro bowl birth..he was 33..

I'm beginning to feel you a bit about youth KillahP, however, to rely solely on youth is a mistake, and a large one, they don't know how to win games and imho fans, the Organization, and Teammates should not suffer so "Joe Rookie can learn and be good 2 yrs from now".

Imho, that is bull****.

first off since we are talking about our 2007 draft lets just get it out of the way and say it was clown shoes....
fair enough cam wanted to build the offense mueller bought it
everyone was mad when we didn't take quinn
it should have been patrick willis
three years later he would still be starting here
the zach issue is a slippery slope i get it
honestly and unfortunately this team burned a ton of years searching for a qb and an offensive identity and let players get old on defense
you dont see that?

"Killerphins wrote:

first off since we are talking about our 2007 draft lets just get it out of the way and say it was clown shoes....
fair enough cam wanted to build the offense mueller bought it
everyone was mad when we didn't take quinn
it should have been patrick willis
three years later he would still be starting here
the zach issue is a slippery slope i get it
honestly and unfortunately this team burned a ton of years searching for a qb and an offensive identity and let players get old on defense
you dont see that?

Oh sure, there were reasons why Lil nicky fled for Alabama, he was no dummy, he knew what was coming in 2007.

Willis should not have been the pick, not logically, if anything a replacement for Truck Taylor should have been taken, we had Crowder who back then appeared to be up and coming, and Zach's replacement, we had Zach, and we added Joey Porter, Willis would not have fit in.

Quinn would have made strategic sense, arguably a Cb.

But anywho, the larger point is, early draft picks, even in 2007, are overvalued, which is why Irish moved away from the #12 this year.

Back then though, Dolphins' GM's were more figureheads, Lil Nicky ran the personnel dept.

"padre31 wrote:

Oh sure, there were reasons why Lil nicky fled for Alabama, he was no dummy, he knew what was coming in 2007.

Willis should not have been the pick, not logically, if anything a replacement for Truck Taylor should have been taken, we had Crowder who back then appeared to be up and coming, and Zach's replacement, we had Zach, and we added Joey Porter, Willis would not have fit in.

Quinn would have made strategic sense, arguably a Cb.

But anywho, the larger point is, early draft picks, even in 2007, are overvalued, which is why Irish moved away from the #12 this year.

Back then though, Dolphins' GM's were more figureheads, Lil Nicky ran the personnel dept.

and yet here we are three years later and quinn is a first round pick who was traded for a FB. ginn is elsewhere. zach is outta the league. porter don't matter. crowder didn't develop into anything special at all and willis is a great player in this league.

saban is not the debate but he screwed up giving a two for culpepper. he ran away cause he blew it. college coach bro.

lets save the move back in this years draft for another thread :up:

I think Saban can be a coach/coordinator in this league but he can't be have control of everything. If you tell him that he's a coach only, I think he can do very well.

"alen1 wrote:

I think Saban can be a coach/coordinator in this league but he can't be have control of everything. If you tell him that he's a coach only, I think he can do very well.

He would never accept that kind of deal though. He is an all or nothing guy. He is a perfect personality for a college head coach, a disaster for the NFL.

I am very interested to see how Carroll does in Seattle over the next few seasons.

On topic though, I agree Pads. Draft picks are way overvalued, and the whole thing just often seems to be a massive crapshoot.

"texanphinatic wrote:

He would never accept that kind of deal though. He is an all or nothing guy. He is a perfect personality for a college head coach, a disaster for the NFL.

I am very interested to see how Carroll does in Seattle over the next few seasons.

On topic though, I agree Pads. Draft picks are way overvalued, and the whole thing just often seems to be a massive crapshoot.

ridiculous statement really
the draft is a process
young players start in the NFL :wink2:

"alen1 wrote:

I think Saban can be a coach/coordinator in this league but he can't be have control of everything. If you tell him that he's a coach only, I think he can do very well.

:dunno:

I do have to wonder if his lack of character would be an issue though Alen, the man is intelligent, but not mentally tough, when the pressure is on that is when those flaws appear.

Everything is all good until they roll the tape

"I am not accepting the Job at Alabama"

YouTube- Coaches Telling Lies

"In three years he will be a Elite, Top 5 Qb in this league"

YouTube- JaMarcus Russell NFL Draft

All well and fine, now what happens when there is accountability?

i was in the colts building on 12-31 2006 saban was running away
not hard to see he was leaving
we kicked field goals that day and lost 27-22
it was over

"Killerphins wrote:

ridiculous statement really
the draft is a process
young players start in the NFL :wink2:

Not at all. Some of the teams may have been better off throwing darts at a board.

"Killerphins wrote:

ridiculous statement really
the draft is a process
young players start in the NFL :wink2:

Interesting, now let us examine the 2 AFCE teams that made the playoffs in 09:

-Bryan Thomas/Calvin Pace...31/30

-Tully Banta Cain/Adalius Thomas 29/33

"padre31 wrote:

:dunno:

I do have to wonder if his lack of character would be an issue though Alen, the man is intelligent, but not mentally tough, when the pressure is on that is when those flaws appear.

I think he's mentally tough. I think he's fine really, as long as he isn't doing everything.

"texanphinatic wrote:

He would never accept that kind of deal though. He is an all or nothing guy. He is a perfect personality for a college head coach, a disaster for the NFL.

I am very interested to see how Carroll does in Seattle over the next few seasons.

On topic though, I agree Pads. Draft picks are way overvalued, and the whole thing just often seems to be a massive crapshoot.

Yes, he is an all or nothing guy, I won't argue that. He has a committee at Alabama that keeps tabs on what underclassmen and upperclassmen on the team do every day.

I think Carroll could do fine if he allows John Schneider to handle player personnel.

I don't think draft picks are overvalued. You build the core of your roster through the draft and when you have very talented draft classes, such as this year and next years, you are going to value them quite a bit. Regarding the draft being a crapshoot, I hate using that label because it's only a crapshoot if you don't do your job. It's not a crapshoot to the teams that draft well because they know how to evaluate talent, they know how to gauge intangibles and it's one of the reasons they are successful every year. Look at Indianapolis for example. It's a crapshoot when you start drafting athletes that are questionable characters instead of productive football players that work hard and have talent to build on.

The guy from About.com writes that he is surprised we drafted Ginn when "Brady Quinn, Amobi Okoye, and Leon Hall were still on the board." He doesn't even mention Darrelle Revis or Patrick Willis. :lol:

This is the perfect example of why a GM needs to approach the draft differently than a fan. A fan wants to plug holes and improve the team immediately. A GM needs to take the best player available so the team can have long-term success.

"Big Red wrote:

The guy from About.com writes that he is surprised we drafted Ginn when "Brady Quinn, Amobi Okoye, and Leon Hall were still on the board." He doesn't even mention Darrelle Revis or Patrick Willis. :lol:

This is the perfect example of why a GM needs to approach the draft differently than a fan. A fan wants to plug holes and improve the team immediately. A GM needs to take the best player available so the team can have long-term success.

Sorry if this comes as arguing just to argue, which is not my goal, but a GM doesn't necessarily have to take the BPA. Need over BPA works as well, as you probably know.

"alen1 wrote:

Sorry if this comes as arguing just to argue, which is not my goal, but a GM doesn't necessarily have to take the BPA. Need over BPA works as well, as you probably know.

Well, the interesting thing about the 07 draft is, the Vikings did go BPA and drafted Adrian Peterson when Chester Taylor had a solid 2007 season.

The problem, from my pov is, "need" assumes that a player who also fills that need cannot be found later in the draft, BPA is BPA, sometimes perhaps the logic of "need' overpowers the reality out on the field.

The Bucs could have easily taken Peterson at #4, and Woodley in rd #2, they had Cadillac but his injury issues had cropped up at that point in time.

The 2007 draft is a fascinating study in both approaches and possibly the most talented in the last 4, with 2010 coming close imho.

"padre31 wrote:

The problem, from my pov is, "need" assumes that a player who also fills that need cannot be found later in the draft, BPA is BPA, sometimes perhaps the logic of "need' overpowers the reality out on the field.

The Bucs could have easily taken Peterson at #4, and Woodley in rd #2, they had Cadillac but his injury issues had cropped up at that point in time.

Need over BPA doesn't necessarily mean that you're taking a lesser talent IMO. In my opinion, there is two categories; pure talent and scheme talent. Both should apply in the first round. You need to look at both of them when drafting and find a common ground between them two so you can stack your board to how the player fits your team. Using the aforementioned Lamar Woodley as an example, I wouldn't take him if he didn't fit my scheme despite his talent. Why would I take a highly talented player and ask him to do things that don't play to his strength and won't help him realize his full potential? I'm not going to ask an undersized end to play five technique in my true defense when he's better suited in a stand up role and that's basically what Tampa would have done had they selected him. However, I might select another player that is a better fit for me and will put him in position to realize his talent but he may not have as high of a grade on San Diego's (for example) board as he does on mine.

It's easy to point out which player X team should have taken but what's so often ignored is how does that player fit schematically. Lamar Woodley did not and does not fit their scheme IMO. As for Carnell Williams vs Adrian Peterson, once you get an injured tailback, you're not going to select another one that had a questionable injury. Also, if Williams didn't get injured, I would bet money that he would be a thirteen hundred yard back on a yearly basis. He had so much talent. His burst, vision, explosiveness, power and physicality was a helluva blend.

"alen1 wrote:

Need over BPA doesn't necessarily mean that you're taking a lesser talent IMO. In my opinion, there is two categories; pure talent and scheme talent. Both should apply in the first round. You need to look at both of them when drafting and find a common ground between them two so you can stack your board to how the player fits your team.

Disagree, what drafting for "need" does is cause over valuation of players based on the perception that they are the only player who will work in a given situation, it basically cancels out the developmental process in favor of taking a lesser player because they fit a "need".

Using the aforementioned Lamar Woodley as an example, I wouldn't take him if he didn't fit my scheme despite his talent. Why would I take a highly talented player and ask him to do things that don't play to his strength and won't help him realize his full potential? I'm not going to ask an undersized end to play five technique in my true defense when he's better suited in a stand up role and that's basically what Tampa would have done had they selected him. However, I might select another player that is a better fit for me and will put him in position to realize his talent but he may not have as high of a grade on San Diego's board as he does on mine.

You take him because the Staff believes he will fit the role that they have in mind for him, Woodley v Adams is a no brainer in 2010, in 2007 Adams was assumed to be suited to Tampa's needs...no development needed.

And that is where draft blunders happen, Jake Long+Chad Henne vs Matt Ryan is a perfect example of the differences between a vision for a player(s) and just taking the "need" position.

Pundits despise Front Offices with vision, which is why some like John Clayton still bang on the Dolphins for taking Jake Long over Matt Ryan and it doesn't matter that both Long and Henne have worked out for the Dolphins.

It's easy to point out which player X team should have taken but what's so often ignored is how does that player fit schematically. Lamar Woodley did not and does not fit their scheme IMO. As for Carnell Williams vs Adrian Peterson, once you get an injured tailback, you're not going to select another one that had a questionable injury. Also, if Williams didn't get injured, I would bet money that he would be a thirteen hundred yard back on a yearly basis. He had so much talent. His burst, vision, explosiveness, power and physicality was a helluva blend.

There is a reason why it is easy to point out Alen, because it was obvious at the time but very few people saw the truth of the matter, Caddy has went on to have more injuries, AP led the league in rushing and Gaines Adams had one mediocre season before being traded to the Bears.