Another factor is that in the last 35 years we have had three #1 overall picks (John Elway, Bo Jackson, Eli Manning) who have refused to play with the team that drafted them. With the rationale that the team sucked and they didn’t want to waste their careers in sad sack organizations. That’s roughly 1 in 12 chance in recent NFL history, which is not a risk any team should ignore. Also you have had situations like Bernie Kosar manipulating the 1985 draft (going from what would have been #2 overall to #1 in the supplemental draft) or Peyton Manning not declaring for the 1997 draft which he would have been the #1 overall that was rumored to be because of his lack of confidence in the Rams’ organization. History shows us that even if “The Man!” is present that it is possible for him to avoid playing for an organization that he considers to be chronically inferior. So it is possible that the roughly 1/12 chance I mentioned above might in fact be higher in reality as a consensus #1 overall pick has other ways to manipulate who they get drafted by, not just refusing to sign for a team. On an expected return basis, with a 1 in 7 chance of your #1 overall QB being “The Man!”, (which can be expressed a 6/7 chance of your pick not being “worth it”) a team would have to tank for 4 seasons to have a better than 50% of finding their HoF QB. That’s before factoring in the risk that he will not sign to play with your team. As a counterpoint to the 49ers dynasty coinciding with the QBing duo of Montana/Young I would place Steve Young’s record with the Buccaneers as an example of HoF talent not being able to overcome poor coaching and a bad organization. Another example is Jim Plunkett who went from being around a 60 passer rating QB who won 40% of his games with The Patsies and 49ers to a 75 passer rating SB winning QB who won 67% of his games with the Raiders (I know that his change to the raiders came after the 1978 rules changes so it isn’t a strictly apples to apples comparison as far as passer rating is concerned). Again I totally agree that the #1 overall spot is the best place to be hunting for your HoF QB. What I disagree with is wether it is worth deliberately tanking to earn that spot.