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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Um....you are acting like deciding things about coverages, which players did what...doesn't add up to what happened on the field and who's responiosble for what.

    The further maddening thing about this, is you are requiring 100% proof of 100% accuracy, all while touting stats and metrics that do neither of that. Your stats give literally zero indication of what actually happened on the football field while a learned person can certainly come closer to accuracy by watching the tape, if not be exactly right many times.

    You are completely ignoring the "observation" part of all this. Again, for the 100th time, stop watching the games through a spreadsheet.
     
  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Then how has Wilson performed similarly -- individually, in terms of passer rating -- throughout the rest of his career, despite the wide variation in personnel around him?
     
  3. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I've only asked for a method, not 100% accuracy. And no, deciding things about coverages does not imply understanding of every aspect of the game that might inform design of those coverages. That's the failure in logic part.

    Anyway.. time to move on.
     
  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Then certainly you would expect that when the Seahawks have passed the ball more and run the ball less in games, Wilson has played worse in terms of passer rating?
     
  5. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I'm not about to go crap on Wilson to prop up Tannehill.

    Wilson being a great QB has nothing to do with Tannehill to me personally, it's not an either/or type situation or something that needs to be compared.

    So I agree with your premise/reply to that point he made. Wilson is a damn good QB and this is coming from someone who thought hed fall flat on his face eventually.
     
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  6. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Run first offenses. The passing numbers don't vary that much. In pass first offenses the numbers can swing violently depending on the personnel
     
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  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Wilson has now played eight years in the league, and in five of those he's posted season passer ratings over 100, the highest being 110. In the other three he had ratings of 95, 95, and 92.

    That isn't someone you want to use as an example of benefiting from his surroundings.
     
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  8. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    I'm not crapping on wilson. I think he's a good not great QB. Hes just not on the level of Brees, Brady or Rodgers. This is using Wilson under DJs criteria. If you apply DJs criteria then Wilson sucks or is at best mediocre. Hell Marino sucks under DJs criteria. Tannehill sucks until he wins a super bowl
     
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    During Wilson's career he's played in 128 games and has thrown as few as 13 passes in a game and as many as 50.

    The correlation between his number of pass attempts and his passer rating on a game-by-game basis is a mere -0.18, meaning that 96.8% of the variance in his passer rating is explained by things other than his number of pass attempts.

    So the Seahawks may indeed be a run-first team, but when the circumstances dictate that Wilson pass the ball more, he doesn't play worse.

    Compare that to Tannehill's 2019 season, where, excluding the Denver game, that correlation was -0.87, meaning that when Tannehill threw the ball more, his passer rating plummeted.
     
  10. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Here's something most of us need to take into account (myself especially being an old school football mind) there's a reason just about every single NFL franchise has increased the size of their analytical departments; it's vital information.

    While analytics are nothing new to football, the depth of the knowledge they now provide is. Now while statistics will not be able to explain everything that happens on the field because of the amount of variables, there's nothing wrong with obtaining more information. In fact, it's foolish not to. Until more recently often ballclubs where hush about it and kept such things in secrecy, but now it's more common knowledge that every team uses analytics to a very large degree.

    I think it would do us all some great good to accept a lot of the things Cbrad has to offer and pair it with our physical knowledge of the game. Afterall, that's essentially the path the sport is taking and there's only so much pushback to be given on such valuable information before one becomes blinded by their own ignorance.
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2020
  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Then what explains the 18 point swing in his passer rating?
     
  12. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    cbrad, yes. Other guys, not so much.
     
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  13. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    No just the opposite. It would surprise the defense to do that so his numbers should improve
     
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  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Well that doesn't happen either. In fact there's virtually no relationship there. See the post above.
     
  15. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    If you understood football, this wouldn't be a surprise at all.
     
  16. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    So
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Well now that you put it that way....
     
  18. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Alrighty...well...the Seahawks lost to the Ravens this year and scored 16 points...at home.

    Wilson had a 65 passer rating.

    Standard Tannehill has to match to be considered good?
     
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  19. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Sounds good
     
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  20. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    No one is really arguing that stats/metrics have value.

    Some are just acting as if they answer everything. They don't. They are a tool. They need to be used in conjunction with other tools.

    But when your only tool is a hammer, all your problems look like nails.
     
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  21. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    The problem with using stats in football as opposed to other sports is the complexity of the sport and the number of players involved making the number of possible outcomes on each play virtually infinite. It's impossible to write algorithms at this time that can cover a play where 100 million different scenarios can happen.

    Look at the Cleveland browns. They were the first team to go moneyball. Do you think they are a success story? Beelichik said five years ago he tried some analytics services and then when they compared their list of best defensive linemen to the company's they immediately cancelled their subscription because the analysis was ridiculous. Maybe someday but as of now they are pretty useless in a lot of areas.

    Personally I think they are alright when analyzing offense vs defense but fall apart when analyzing individuals
     
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  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Most important first step in advancing football analytics IMO (if I were working for a team this is what I would suggest) is to vastly increase the types of stats being recorded. In other words, don't worry about methods of statistical analysis right now (those will be improved on as time passes once the nature of the data becomes better understood), just gather more data.

    Most publicly available football stats sites don't include formation or play call for example. And it would be nice to know stuff like distance to closest defender when ball is caught, etc... That has to be step #1. Hire a bunch of guys who know football well enough to decide what might be important (what actually IS important will be determined after the statistical analysis) and just have people go through every game in history (or at least as far back as you think matters) and record the stats.

    There's not too much one can do without that first step of improving the data gathering. And teams have the resources to do that. Someone just has to see how potentially valuable it could be and put the resources and effort into creating such a massive database.

    Oh, and one immediate suggestion for using statistics I'd have is randomizing play calling so that it's harder for the opponent coach to predict your next play. That is, the coach has to sit down with a programmer and say in situation X there are 3 types of plays I'm willing to call, in situation Y there are 4 types, etc.. You can go further and specify a general probability with which each type of play can be called in each situation (so that not every possibility is equally likely). Once that's set though.. let the machine randomly choose. And having the types of stats I just described would allow you to simulate how well you could do against a particular coach's tendencies for play calling.

    Humans are notoriously bad at acting random – there are studies in psychology that show this, for example that humans have a hard time creating a "random" (as in hard to predict by a machine) string of 0's and 1's – and I am totally confident that you could improve play calling slightly by using a random number generator once the coach specifies the range of possibilities.
     
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  23. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

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  24. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    That's actually one area I think stats work very well. Play calling tendencies. In the past you.did it by viewing tape or instinct but having the breakdowns is definitely helpful for coordinators
     
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  25. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    Probably a hell of a Mine Sweeper player, though.
     
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  26. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Hey now...I ROCK at minesweeper!

    :butthead::guitar::rimshot::rockon:
     
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  27. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    There’s no real similarities in tannehill and Wilson other than they were drafted the same year. In terms of their actual ideal offense fit or skill set it’s apples and oranges. Ones progression read the other is not. In terms of the pocket ask.

    if you gonna go comps do them with actual similar qb ask and ideal fits.

    this is assumed that people understand play action is play action regardless. That doesn’t change other than concepts really which is more about formation and route concepts etc. some teams run tiered concepts some run vertical concepts etc. and of course there’s overlap as well.
     
  28. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    There are some similarities.

    They are both great on roll out passes

    Difference is Seattle took advantage and Miami refused
     
  29. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    well that’s not really what I’m saying. That’s a concepts difference in terms of emphasis and gameplan etc. more oc based or play caller based than qb and that also is played into by down and distance etc.

    Lots of variables in that.

    now if you want to say they are both plus passers on tbe move yes I agree. But that’s not really what I’m trying to get across. They are both plus zone read QBs too but obviously Wilson is more elusive etc. they both can run rpo. Etc.

    What Wilson is not is progression read.

    edit: I did say skill set so in that regard I can see where you are coming from
     
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  30. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    According to numbers in a vacuum yep lol

    but Ryan should get even more of a olive branch cause he’s got to go on the road lol

    too funny
     
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  31. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    by and large Seattle’s scheme on both sides of the ball has been much more competent than miamis. But they’ve also been a much more talented team.

    miamis been both incompetent and lacking talent. Bad combo lol

    which again comes back to incompetence
     
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  32. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    I don't think Miami's talent has been that bad. I do think the coaching had been the big issue.

    Though Seattle did have three HOF defensive players on thier team and I do think Wagner deserves to be in as well. Probably best defensive back and linebacker group of my lifetime.
     
  33. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    tannys 7 year miami run talent wise doesn’t sniff Seattle’s. And yeah Wagner imo is a hall of famer when he hangs em up.

    the only thing they were close in was o line pass pro play but we never had a top 5 run game lol. Not by a long shot. We had one good slightly more than half year run with ajayi.

    and they lived ahead of the sticks/scoreboard those first what 5 years? Or more?
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2020
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  34. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Seattle's online were not good at run blocking and I don't think thier recievers were ever special.
     
  35. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    with marshawn lynch they didn’t run well? That battering ram vs 9 man boxes with single coverage on the outside and little to no help cause they had to load the boxes so much? We will agree to disagree on if Seattle’s o line was good run blockers. I mean I know lynch did a lot of the driving but miamis level? Can’t do it.

    did you know that last year Seattle lead the league in rushing again?
     
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  36. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    They ran well due to Lynch. The line was still trash. Same way Drake could always get 4.6 ypc with the Dolphins trash line.
     
  37. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    I would take Dolphins unicorn line over Seattle's .They were not good at all
     
  38. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    IKR? Thought I'd throw that little nugget out there to see who really bites.
     
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  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Correlations between Seattle's run game and Russell Wilson's passer rating, on a game-by-game basis, over the 128 games of Wilson's career:

    Passer rating and rushing attempts: 0.21
    Passer rating and rushing yards: 0.02
    Passer rating and yards per rush: -0.15

    Russell Wilson's performance on a game-by-game basis has had very little to do with Seattle's running game. His performance has not been dependent on their run game.
     

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