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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I am really excited for the game because I feel like the Titans are one of the few out there that can slow down Baltimore (by dominating the time of possession). I don't know if the Titans can find a way to win either, but if they do somehow figure it out then they're one game away from the Super Bowl....how insane is that?

    I HOPE they win....praying for that win....but we'll have to wait a few more days to find out.
     
  2. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Ya mentally it was worse...but it didn't end up a turnover.
     
  3. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And one of the other arguments we had years back, for a few years, was that because of the Dolphins' quarterback's surroundings, Brady couldn't have any more success here than Tannehill. It was stated by several of us, even realizing there was really no way to prove it at the time...it's just how we felt from watching the play. Well, I think this year's Patriots team gave us a chance to re-visit.

    What 2019 team does this sound like?

    - Average to below average line in both passing and rushing.
    - Below average overall receiving corps.
    - Defense that started strong yet faltered the 2nd half of the season.
    - Unreliable kicking game.
    - Non-premier running-back.
    - Finished the season weak, going 4-4 in their last 8 games.

    Nope...not the Dolphins...but the 2019 Patriots. What was Brady's result?

    - 88.2 Passer Rating (21st in the NFL)
    - 61.1 Completion % (29th in the NFL)
    - 6.6 YPA (26th in the NLF)
    - 18 Passing TDs (13th in the NFL)

    We finally saw a Patriots team that could more somewhat closely resemble the Dolphins from 2012-2016, at the Offensive Line and other places, and look at that result. Remember I said CLOSER resemble...not that they were as bad. And New England STILL has the "GOAT" HC and his favorite OC / play-caller. LARGE New England edge in coaching compared to 2012-2019 Dolphins. We've ALWAYS heard Brady makes chicken salad out of chicken turds, what happened? Maybe he had much better teams in the past? Could it be?

    Now let's have a look in on Tannehill from 2012-2016, by averaging year-end numbers:

    - 86.5 Passer Rating (pretty close)
    - 62.8 Completion % (pretty close)
    - 7.1 YPA (pretty close)
    - 21 Passing TDs (again...pretty close)

    The "GOAT" QB...ever in the history of the NFL...nobody better ever...turned in roughly the SAME numbers as 2012-2016 Tannehill in key passing statistics.

    Staggering...
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2020
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  4. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I mean...he is 42 years old.
     
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  5. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Viewed a few Raven games and their defense is as good as their offense. Yeah, Lamar Jackson is a stud, and Roman has done an excellent job of maximizing his talent and the offense as a whole while using the pistol and motion to exploit matchups to gain numbers up the middle or on the edge. But that defense . . . damn. I like their belligerent style.

    You can scheme up pressure without true pass rushers, and that's exactly what they are doing. Martindale calls a very aggressive game and his secondary plays very well despite being often left on an island due to a blitz heavy scheme. While the Ravens sack numbers fall below the league average, it's the pressure applied plus the discipline of their secondary that sets them apart. They play an array of coverages, mask them well, and most importantly seem to communicate and adjust on the fly better than most defenses I've studied, and that extends beyond just this season. Crowding the LOS, disguising blitzers, and then overloading gaps vs the pass is one of their fortes that they have excelled at this season under Martingdale. They also take a lot of pride in shutting down the run, and are just as successful when the time calls for it.

    I would be very surprised if the Titans came out victors in the matchup. But that stands for any offense vs Baltimore's defense, and has zero to do with Tannehill at QB. Heck, I can't see anyone doing much damage and coming out on top vs the Ravens, regardless of who is playing the QB position. I expect them to win the SB barring any outrageous unforeseen circumstances.
     
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  6. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    He is...and he insists, as do numerous analysts, pundits, etc, that he hasn't fallen off...just the targets have.

    Edit: I guess it's also fitting that, much like Tannehill did, Brady has fans begging for him to leave/retire.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2020
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  7. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Dude...I can't see anybody beating them through the Super Bowl. They've got to be one of the best 3 teams I've ever witnessed. Deadly everywhere. Oh, and have a RIDICULOUS kicker to boot. Insane.

    Titans are jumping into a wood-chipper.
     
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  8. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Yea, I don't blame anyone but father time for Brady's decline. Sure his pass catchers are pretty bad, but so was he.

    I've wanted that dude to retire for the past 17 years.....now?? I HOPE he comes back to NE another year.
     
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  9. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Which is interesting...because it really looks possible he goes to the Chargers. They're loaded out with targets compared to New England, and they'd likely pay him more than BB would. What you think?

    Edit: And FWIW, per PFF:

    Highest accuracy+ pass percentage
    Tom Brady, New England Patriots
    Brady leads the way in “accuracy+” or “perfect” passes by our grading. Whether leading receivers away from the leverage of defenders or hitting them in stride to optimize yards after the catch, Brady is annually the league's best, and he's pacing the NFL once again, even in a down season."
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2020
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  10. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    There have been good performances by quarterbacks against the Ravens’ defense this season.

    High volume:

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201909220kan.htm

    Low volume:

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201912010rav.htm

    There’s no reason why the quarterback with the highest regular season passer rating in the league can’t replicate something within that range against them.
     
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  11. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    In all honesty and sincerity, your stats tell very little about the actual game played.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 10, 2020
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  12. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Until you can breakdown the 15 throws and show what you believe made the throw poor, you're wasting everyone's time. What about Tannehill's throws in that game was poor?
     
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  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Then please, tell us what actually happened in those games, and show us how it’s different from what the statistics indicate.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 10, 2020
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  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    We're still waiting on you to breakdown Tannehill's 15 throws and what made them poor.
     
  15. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Also, one of the keys about that defense, is they've gotten MARKEDLY better since picking up that CB Marcus Peters. Last half of the season, they are strongly #1 in most relevant defensive categories. Their only losses were before acquiring Peters.
     
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  16. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    LOL. It would be a complete waste of my time, which is ever so more evident by your interactions with other posters on this board. In fact, I'd be surprised if you could ID a simple C2 shell in real time, let alone the coverage rotations and adjustments used by Martingdale that would be described. Get lost.
     
  17. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Peters is a perfect example of the Raven's acquisition to further Martingale's philosophy of being able to scheme pressure without a plethora of pure pass rushers while maintaining a sound defensive backfield.
     
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  18. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    I'm not likened to Marty McFly, so calling me chicken isn't going to work.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2020
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  19. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like Dean Pees.

    Both D coordinators are pretty good at it
     
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  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The truth is that you wouldn’t even know where to start. LOL. Take care.
     
  21. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    I liked Peas; good defensive mind. Peas also had excellent coverage schemes as I also enjoyed watching his disciplined secondary, but his problems arose bc he wasn't bold enough to trust it and bring pressure. A defense can only maintain sound coverage for so long before it breaks down and the offense improvises and finds holes (which every defensive call has).
     
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  22. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    You couldn’t be more obnoxious if you tried. The whole board is collectively giving you an eye roll.
     
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  23. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I don't believe a word you're saying. Tannehill has performed game after game after game ever since he started week 7 and you're continued mantra has been "we need more data"

    You've had all the data you need and still criticize him. He wins a playoff game and he's still criticized. I stand by my statement...this is going to continue after the Baltimore game.
     
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  24. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I do worry about Baltimore's defense. Brad and I disagree about defense winning championships, but this is where defense becomes so vital. Offenses are much better in the playoffs than wha't typically faced during the regular season, so you have to have an elite defense to be successful. Sorry Brad, not going to change my mind...that being said...

    Tennessee's OL is REALLY going to have to show for this game. They're going to have to get those running lanes opened for Henry and give Tannehill adequate protection to be able to get GOOD throws downfield. Harbaugh has the playoff experience and is not taking this game lightly and the Titans are going to have their hands full.

    With that being said though, Tennessee needs to be who they are...a powerhouse running game, keeping their defense honest and exploiting the lack of coverage in the secondary when its there.

    I'm really pumped about this game
     
  25. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Bro...that defense is legit. Why can't they just do exactly like NE's defense did, trusting their offense to do better on their side (as it no doubt will)? I'm sure they'd be happy to give up 2 TD drives knowing they're gonna get 4+. This one just feels like such a blowout...the line is 10 / 9.5 on this one. Gonna be fugly.

    One other thing, these "underdog" defenses need to stop dropping gimme INTs. They're far too rare in the playoffs to just let 'em go (Titans and Texans both). Texans dropped 2-3 gimmes, Titans dropped 1 (REALLY rare from Brady).
     
  26. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    As has been said over many decades thru different ages, and remains so ever true: offense wins games, defense wins championships. It's a different animal come playoff time. The game, approach, and playing level changes in the postseason. What got you there (playoffs) won't necessarily bring the same success if you can't adhere to the game's fundamentals when it's win or go home.
     
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  27. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Carmen, what's your take on how they prevent 13 and 12 formation slaughter? Ravens got that stuff wired.
     
  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    No way. You do not get to criticize for someone not breaking it down. You continue to refuse to do it to support you Tannehill played bad claim. Let's see your proof.
     
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  29. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    The all-22 is out there. I've seen it myself. Pats had the Titans' receivers shut down and blanketed. Even then, Tannehill made several very difficult tight window throws in that situation. None of which were picked off, or even close to it. They were dimes. That 3rd and 8 conversion was a thing of beauty...in the rain.

    If he can replicate those throws this week (which, frankly, he has all year), and his receivers can get even slightly more open, they should look much better in the passing game.

    I don't know if there's a version of the film available that's embedded in an Excel spreadsheet though.
     
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  30. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah I guess you guys will never change your minds about this, but whatever you think or say about this, we're not talking about differences of "opinions" here. The data actually show that the average performance level of the offense in the playoffs, relative to league-wide performance, is greater than that of the defense (not every game of course). That's true for the playoffs overall as well as for the SB. Defense wins championships is a myth.

    Again.. it's not an opinion. This is what the data show (using points scored and points allowed relative to league-wide distributions). And I'll keep pointing this out because it's not good when people keep pushing the theory they believe in even when it's contradicted by the data. And if anyone wants I'll repost the z-scores of every single playoff game or SB to demonstrate this.
     
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  31. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Easily said, but more difficult to do is simply eye discipline by a defense. Mainly (and I'll repeat the overdone but tried and true "do your job" motto here) the defenders responsible for the dive, QB, and pitch options must retain discipline and not overrun their responsibilities.

    Pistol formations (like the Ravens use in large majority) are geared to run downhill. Traditionally you defend them by spilling the runner to the sideline and cleaning up from there. Problem is, not many offenses pose the threat of speed at the QB position like Baltimore has in Jackson. So if you force them inside they have powerful blockers and a RB to boot to punish you inside by overloading with power (which in the Ravens case is usually to the B gap on the shaded nose side). But should you spill the play, Jackson will keep and has the speed to beat you to the edge and beyond.

    The Ravens Pistol form also causes fits with one gap teams because a defense must be flexible and be able to gap exchange to alleviate confusion.

    In split alignments used in the Gun (RB to either side of the QB) defenses are provided a better situation to align properly as they do so toward the RB side and then can ID their backside defender for bends. But in the Pistol their intentions remain anonymous until the snap and more specifically, until the RB declares his steps/angle. Throw in the ability for the Ravens to lineup WR's and/or TE's in tight 3x1 sets and it can cause havoc. Here you can force the defense to have the Mike tucked into the A gap in order to defend the receiver heavy side and the speed option weak is a wide open. All the while, Andrews has proven to be quite the TE to exploit LB coverage as well, which is especially useful for RPO plays.

    Staying 2 high, regardless of offensive form, allows the D to have an overhang on either side and the Mike to man the middle vs inside runs and also to vacate the box vs full flow (though C2 can leave the deep middle seam susceptible and Andrews is more than capable) That coupled with maintaining personal defensive responsibilities (which is easier said than done when a significant QB run threat is posed) and eye discipline is essential. IOW, don't fall for the eye candy.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2020
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  32. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    So that would indicate teams play the same as they usually, points-wise, do in the post-season, compared to that same regular season?
     
  33. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    So essentially a LOT of coaching, and discipline. This Titans defense lives off of that slogan, "do your job," so maybe the can at least slow them down a little.
     
  34. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    You sound like John Madden. "The team that scores the most points tonight will win".

    Save it. Defense wins championships.
     
  35. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Certainly won the last one...and a few other Patriots championships.
     
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  36. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    No, there's no inference like that. I was only looking at the z-scores of all offenses and defenses of playoff game winners (not losers), so there's no inference about how the teams play points-wise. The graph I created is up to 2017 (I'd have to regenerate it to include last year) and the average z-score of playoff game winning offenses is 0.7294 while for defense it's 0.5464. That means that playoff winners tend to play both above average offense AND above average defense, but that the offense is slightly more important for winning.

    For SB's it's 0.9389 for the offense and 0.4072 for the defense, so an even bigger difference.
     
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  37. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    So it's clear: the only question here is whether you or anyone else agrees that points scored is the most important measure of the offense and points allowed is the most important measure of the defense. If you agree with that, the rest is just statistical analysis and the result is that at least on average offense is more important in winning championships.

    btw.. here are all SB results:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/super-bowl/

    Can you try to explain to us how "Defense wins championships" was true when the Eagles beat the Patriots 41-33? Or when SF beat the Chargers 49-26? Or the many other SB's where it's pretty clear the offense was more important?

    Let the data drive the theory and don't be so dogmatic. Well up to you of course. But your "save it" response isn't at all convincing. Data is.
     
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  38. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    It feels chicken or egg.

    An offense attacks a defense. A defense tries to stop an offense. When an offense performs above average, is it because the offense is above average or the opposing defense was merely average (or worse)? Or even then, since offenses differ and defenses differ, on planes beyond just talent level, is the above average offense just appearing that way because it ran into a normally above average defense that just happens to be susceptible to that kind of specific offense?

    Since these metrics you tout are just a sorting of results, why are you so sure they are giving reasons for those results? The team that scores the most points wins, so of course the metrics show offense wins games. It is like using only blood pressure to check a person's health and justifying that tactic with the correct notion that 100% of all deaths are due to heart stoppage. A defense stopping an offense comes across to you, as a problem of the offense, not a success of the defense. All offenses and defenses have weaknesses that can be attacked, not just by the greatness of talent of the opposing unit, but by the unique strategy of that unit. A statistically bad defense can stop a statistically great offense if it happens to only be good at that one weakness of the great offense. Vice versa. And numerous levels in between.

    These are the things your stats not just lose sight of, but incorrectly sort into the wrong column.

    Stats/metrics are one tool. They are a check. They are not the sole answer. Regardless if you say "they are not the sole answer", your conclusions belie that statement. You argue against tape watchers as if your answers are definitive causations. It is as if you believe stats can answer any question, but also readily admit that somethings are too hard to track so we can assume they come out in the wash.That's always been the problem. Stats leave no room for nuance. My argument isn't new...it is has been the argument since stats were invented.
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2020
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  39. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  40. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    All those confounds exist in the regular season. So GIVEN those confounds what is the result is what is being asked here. You don't need to know all the cause-effect relationships to estimate something statistically.

    Besides.. it's not like I'm the only one using points scored and allowed to argue this specific point. Remember last year's SB? Yeah.. a bunch of people used ONLY the 13-3 score to once again say defense wins championships is true, ignoring of course all other SB's. And Carmen (our X's and O's expert here) has in the past said that points scored and points allowed is the most important measure of offense and defense (he's right about that btw.. correlations to win% show that).

    Can't just cherry pick and use those stats when it supports an argument. Have to live with the consequences of using such stats.

    btw.. there is NO ONE that can actually answer the types of questions you are posing. People can have opinions, but don't be fooled into thinking any tape watcher or "expert" can tell you what percentage of the success of any play was due to X, Y or Z. NO ONE can do that.
     
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