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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.
hoo boy. I'll let your post stand for itself as proof.
If a QB rating system with a range from 0 to 100 says that those two sets of stats (Batch and Foles) correspond to only a 1.6 point difference in QB rating, then as far as I'm concerned that's a sign there's something wrong with that rating system. And ESPN implicitly admitted to that by trying to hide the embarrassment.
Regarding your question of "at what point in terms of sample size does QBR become a valid representation of a QB's ability", you can't even ASK that question with a proprietary formula! With traditional passer rating where you know what goes into it, it's meaningful to ask questions like whether with large enough sample size stuff like WR ability averages out, regardless of whether you can answer the question or not.
But what's the comparable question for QBR? We have no idea what question to ask because we don't know what's in the formula! Like.. are we supposed to ask whether the unknown (subjective) weights "average out"? Who knows.
No.. to answer the question of how "valid" any formula is for representing QB ability you need to know what's in it. No way around that.
There is zero evidence that the Pats have a better than expected win% at home. In fact the evidence is that their home win% is exactly what their away win% predicts it would be. There is no evidence that they get a benefit from systemic cheating at Foxboro.
There's nothing to stop. Quit stalling and make an actual point. So far, your argument in favor of the Pats has amounted to little more than, "Yeah so, you're jealous!!!!! They're great!!!!!!!!! Why U Mad Bro?!!"
Answer for the scenario I laid out, this is now the 3rd time I've asked you.
Without refuting one point. Facts suck don't they?
If they always cheat, which improves their win percentage across the board, then....
Nobody claimed they ONLY used their vault of other teams' playbooks and extra speaker at home.
Another way Pats' defenders trip over their own arguments......
They act like EVERY other team cheats, without real evidence to back that up.....
But then act like the Pats don't cheat, but if they did, they only do it in the one way (taping of signals), even though there's mountains of evidence they've cheated in numerous different ways, from messing with equipment like game balls to having an always on speaker in Brady's headset. But could they be possibly be cheating ion any other way? Oh noooooooooooo. Never. Every other team? Yes absolutely, but not the team that gets caught cheating every 5 years.
Like I was saying, the Titans have an overall solid OL.
This doesn’t diminish what Ryan Tannehill has done, but just an example of how hyperbolic it can get in here at times.
Yeah that post was just a giant salt mine. As if it's impossible for a QB to get by off of smarts and improve his arm strength once he gets into the league.
Well, ESPN is obviously close to the sports world and I'm sure they were asked 100 times a day, "How is it that the QB who's leading in passer rating and just about every major passing stat is ranked 16th overall in your formula?" And like magic, in one single week with one good recognized game (which wasn't any more impressive than his last 5-6 games), he jumps from 16th overall to 9th overall. You said he was 8th so maybe I counted wrong...I think it was 9th though.
In any case, I don't see how any quarterback can jump 7 or 8 slots in a single week...I think the entire thing is a fraud (possibly even more-so than you do)!
Not saying he's not football smart to a high degree...not saying he didn't improve his athleticism and fitness over the years...he most certainly did. I'm saying the process was greatly added to by their "methods." The facts are there, you can deny 'em all you want.
Edit: What do you say about the 3 times before this year they were caught cheating? To include, do you believe all 3 happened, and to what extent do you think they could help a team? If you can't answer those, it's all for naught.
Summed up nicely. Deniers will never see the irony in that.
Dude, every team steals signals or whatever, and the other "cheats" you listed off are absurd. You're just coming off as a butt hurt brady hater. I honestly dont even understand the hate for him, he's an all around classy guy and one of the few guys who praises his team/teammates and doesn't talk a load of crap.
You just called Belichek a failure, wich is not even close to being true. Im done arguing with you.
Anyone whos watched football more than 15 plus years now that Belichek has always been a genius way before he even arrived in NE.
Please provide an example of the Patriots being punished to the capacity of Belichick getting suspended for a year or Super Bowls being stripped. You know, since they cheat to the capacity that created the most dominant stretch in sports history. Oh the league didn't think the "cheating" was a big enough advantage to warrant either of those happening despite 31 other fanbases foaming at the mouth for them to bring the hammer down?
The biggest joke here is you thinking only the Pats are smart enough to find some profound method of cheating and keep it under wraps for a decade while simultaneously getting caught for inconsequential things such as taping angles and allowing balls to deflate by 5% in cold weather.
So Belichick, in all his evil wisdom, is keeping some magical super dynasty creating cheating technique hidden from everyone but also willing to get caught doing borderline useless nonsense and having the NFL magnifying glass on them for everything?
Make sure you check under your bed for the boogyman tonight bud.
Atlanta with artificial crowd noise at home. Is making it too loud for the opposing offense to hear plays not a slight competitive edge?
Mike Tomlin literally attempting to trip Jacoby Jones returning a kickoff down the sideline. Oh but that wasn't the Patriots and it was funny haha
Also a quick google search turned up this
But it's the Bucs and they're not winning enough for anyone to care lol
Non-Patriots teams getting caught doesn't make for good headlines.
As I understand it, and I am willing to be corrected if anyone knows better, the home team provide the communications gear for both teams.
That is leaving aside the fact that this would be absurdly easy for the NFL or any other team to detect just by listening for the signals sent within the stadium.
Johnny Unitas - cut by the Steelers
Bart Starr - 17th round draft pick
Kurt warner - packing grocery shelves.
JaMarcus Russel #1 overall
Ryan Leaf - #2 overall
pre-draft exoectations are never wrong
They used a completely separate comms system on its own frequency (not monitored by or known to the NFL) for the extra speaker.
This stuff all came out in a New York Times article back when it happened...somewhere around 2006 IIRC.
I just want to point out the first two come from an era where scouting wasnt even remotely the same.
Also pretty much everyone knew Jamarcus was going to fail. It was basically like a joke, because his only skill was to throw a ball through a brick wall and being incredibly large. I'd argue the Raiders went against pre-draft conceptions of Russel by taking him #1.
Leaf I was too young so I cant comment on.
Btw I do agree scouting is imperfect I'm just not sure those are all great examples.
Not one of those is even close to what the Patriots were doing in Spygate.
why are you trying to start a debate on the Patriots cheating? We have had it far too many times in here.
I'm not sure that holds because what you're using as the criterion against which to determine the validity of QBR is (in effect) traditional passer rating, which doesn't incorporate two major variables: 1) expected points added (EPA), and 2) win probability added (WPA). You could just as well criticize traditional passer rating for its elevation of Foles's game by using QBR as the criterion and saying Foles's game didn't do as much as Batch's with regard to EPA and WPA, and traditional passer rating is therefore "invalid." Which measure should be the criterion?
I'm not sure I follow there either. If we had a gold standard criterion against which to determine the validity of QBR with regard to quarterbacks' ability, we could easily determine the correlation between it and QBR and have a measure of QBR's validity, without necessarily knowing what's in the QBR formula, and then determine the sample size at which it becomes valid in that regard.
So much for not playing well at the end of the season.
As I said, your defense boils down to two things:
1. Everyone who doesn't felate the Pats is stupid and jealous.
2. Nebulous assumptions passed off as fact without real evidence, like, "everyone does it".
He was a failed HC in Cleveland. Your ignorance on that topic isn't a point in your favor.
No, the biggest joke, is the scenario that I've already laid out for you and asked you to answer for....four times now, and you of course haven't.
It provides the same advantage as stadium built to be loud. Its literally nothing and it is beyond pathetic that you would compare that to taping signals or leaving the QBs headset on.
Really? This is how stupid your argument is. Hell you could have used the Jets coach, who actually was trying to trip the player and actually did, and was also fired. But that wouldn't fit into your absurd narrative.
Wanna take a guess who the team to get the first complaints about those headset shenanigans was?
There is no "gold standard" or "ground truth" we can compare any proposed QB rating system to because there is no known way to independently measure QB ability. Anyone proposing how to do so will face the same questions I'm posing here. I mean.. if you say you have a solution but keep the method a secret how could you ever convince anyone you've accurately measured QB ability???
And regarding the Charlie Batch example, I'm not saying it makes no sense because of what passer rating says. I'm saying it's counter-intuitive to say two QB's should have a similar rating when one is WAY better statistically in every single category that has a decent or strong correlation to win%. You have to ask whether the results make sense (because there is no "ground truth" to compare to). And ESPN agrees it doesn't. They didn't come out and try to defend Charlie Batch's 99.9 rating. They did what they could to hide the embarrassment.
Also, it doesn't matter if QBR incorporates EPA or WPA if they also add subjective assumptions. ONE subjective assumption destroys any credibility you gain by using EPA and WPA. Besides, EPA and WPA have their issues too. The extremely small sample sizes with unlikely to occur situations (e.g., 2nd and 17 at the 24 yard line) means they're not reliable across a good sized range either.
I'm just hoping X - Y = B squared to the 1/3 tenth equates to Ryan Tannehill just went into Foxboro and ended the miserable Pat's dynasty we have endured for nearly 20 seasons.
Would be awesome wouldn't it?
But whatever Tannehill does in his first playoff game, the stat I'm most excited about is Brady's 88 rating, which is lower than the league average of 90.8 and is the first time in Brady's career that's ever happened. That seriously gives me hope Brady is nearing his end. I have no idea what Belichick will do. He's already 67 and not too many coaches coached past that point, but he doesn't look like he's retiring yet.
A lot is excused about Brady because of his weapons...and they aren't as good as years past, that's for sure. BUT. Those are the guys Belichick wanted (aside from Antonio Brown or Josh Gordon). Drafted one in the 1st round. They've lived off of his choices for 20 years and ate plentifully at the table. Brady just can't keep up with that any more.
Those weapons have contributed to the lower rating, no doubt. But Brady has done just as much if not more. He's missing open guys, throwing late, throwing low, missing the target basically, on a lot of throws he used to make robotically. He got frustrated several times in that Dolphins game, and it forced him to make bad throws...you could see it plain as day (the pick-6 for one).
And if you isolate him, you'll see him shaking his throwing arm out after plays quite often...he's got that elbow issue, even if he flatly refuses being injured. Those things can linger...and at 42, linger a LOT longer than they did at 30...I don't care how well you take care of your body (and he's the best at it). It was also pointed out by one analyst, that he's jogging on the sidelines between drives...something he's NEVER done in his career, so he may be dinged up in the lower body as well.
I know he doesn't want to use injuries as an excuse, but injuries are "reasons" you're not playing well. Age, plus the lack of weapons, plus health issues, plus never being in this situation where he isn't "the man" are playing hard on him. That defense carried them the first half of the season...it is stark:
Games 1-8: 7+ PPG Allowed (insane)
Games 9-16: 20+ PPG Allowed
They're 4-4 over their last 8 games, and he's just as much to blame as anyone...I think we're seeing the beginning of the end, finally. He had great stats early this season on scrub teams, yet STILL finished the year under average for the first time ever. While I'd love to see him go to another team next year, start, and get benched (or even get benched by BB), I'd settle for a stroll of into the sunset of retirement
That bastard has one thing left to do. Overtake our beloved Shula. He will coach as long as he physically and mentally can..
I used to mock Patriot haters until the episode in Cincinnati. Plausible deniability just like with deflate-gate.
The Patriots have no shame when it comes to getting a competitive advantage and the fact they cheated to gain an advantage over the worst team in the NFL only furthers the point. I don't want to imagine what measures they take when facing good competition.
I still think Brady and Bill B are the greatest combo ever but it's tainted to some degree.
He needs 56 more wins to surpass Shula. IF he were to be able to continue with the Patriots' 12-win season average that's 5 years he needs. If however he can manage to stay on as coach with only 8-8 seasons that's 7 years. So realistically that means he'll need 5-7 years to overtake Shula as long as he doesn't have a losing season.
Right now.. I put the odds on Shula, especially if Brady's decline is real. But you're probably right about his motivation.
The Patriots are favored by 5, and rightly so. They've "earned" it because of their identity, coach, and team performance in the post-season over the past 20 years.
The factors that give me hope are:
a) The Titans and Vrabel whooped them, blew them out, last year. That was a much better Patriots team, and a lesser Titans team.
b) Tannehill has played at Foxborough several times (probably more than any other active QB)...and while his Dolphins teams were 0-6 there, he's in a much better situation with the Titans, and shouldn't have the deer in the headlights problem.
c) Patriots defense has been exposed and sort of fallen off a cliff the last half of the season. Only reason they're defense is still 1st place is because they had such a MASSIVE lead from the 1st half of the season. They're playing at a 12th place clip right now. From nearly all-time great to 12th place in 2019 is a big drop.
d) Last but not least...Derrick Henry. That dude is a monster. 6'3" and over 245 pounds, at RUNNING BACK?!?! Wouldn't you think Belichick has to pick him as the poison he takes away? If he does, Tannehill should feast. If he doesn't, Henry should feast. The Titans have too many playmakers to take all of them away.
Both the Pats defense and Brady can't play like they have the last 8 weeks and them have a chance, IMO. But Belichick is still the HC, so you NEVER know...
It's hard to blame Brady for some of these "off target" throws, as I think that receivers other than Edelman aren't where they're supposed to be. Either way, though, I love seeing it.
As for the NFL clearing Bellicheat.. Duh..
If the video team dropped off a DVD stealing signals told Billicheat here's an early Christmas gift, what do you think he would have done? And how many times in the past did this go down? He doesn't need to ask for it if it's just given to him and tacitly accepted by the organization.
Ya that's the rub. That is probably happening at a much higher rate than he's ever had to experience. I think it is also more of a lack of confidence in those guys, that are only ever so slightly open, to be able to make the catch...they've let him down quite a bit, and he don't have the velocity to force it to happen.
I'll blame him. His accuracy is off.
The INT to Rowe was also a direct result of the play before when I believe Baker came on a hard blitz and was about to murder him before he got tripped
It rattled Tom and on the very next throw he made a terrible, rushed throw that turned the game.
I think every team tries to get some sort of advantage... Zach Thomas has said before he would study audio to see what the audibles from the quarterback sounds like when he calls it and what plays it was.. its the reason why Peyton Manning had nightmares facing ZT.
the difference is though, any of us can record the game and see / listen to the quarterback make hand signals or yell out an audible.
The patriots had cameras on sidelines... ive seen multiple occasions where opposing headsets stopped working in foxborough mysteriously.. deflated footballs.. printed playbook sheets missing from opponent locker rooms... opponents afraid to have any discussions in locker rooms, warning players to keep it low in the locker rooms.
its gone on and on and on with that franchise..