1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    5,993
    7,725
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Yes, but at least I'd agree with your statement. Brady has benefited from a really smart coach, a really smart lip reader, and a well conditioned supporting cast. I personally don't think he's anything special without those "added benefits".
     
    danmarino and resnor like this.
  2. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

    966
    1,346
    113
    Oct 18, 2010
    Hi Key! How are ya bud?
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    932
    655
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    Unfortunately there hasn't been any sample of play in which Brady has been divorced from those surroundings to permit such a conclusion (or its opposite) with any certainty.

    Personally I would put my money on its not being an either-or, but a both, where both Brady and his surroundings are exceptionally good, which is likely the best explanation for any dynasty.

    I don't think there is any situation in which a relatively poor or mediocre quarterback's surroundings can elevate him to career-long Hall of Fame-level play. You can get a very good season from that on occasion, like Andy Dalton in 2015 for example, but you're not going to get career-long Hall of Fame performance from it.
     
    mooseguts likes this.
  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    12,866
    6,978
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Teams want the best players possible at every position. You always try to boil things down to false dichotomies.
     
  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    932
    655
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    And they assemble and pay those players at random? There is no prioritization in that regard? Guards and linebackers are chosen number-one overall and paid like quarterbacks?
     
  6. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    12,866
    6,978
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    I mean, you could be seeing an average QB play for an an above average team that cheats and has great coaching...and you wouldn't know. Honestly, what is Brady better than other QBs at? Processing and getting rid of the ball? That's not a talent and it's not special if Ernie Adams is in his helmet talking after the mic is supposed to shut off.
     
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    12,866
    6,978
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    It's pretty obvious. Eli , imo, has not had a career that defines him as one of the greats...he's not had a HoF career. But I'd bet that he'll be inducted into the HoF. And he'll be inducted, if we're being honest, because he's a Manning and he has 2 rings. Because the HoF isn't inducting based on individual talent all the time.
     
  8. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

    966
    1,346
    113
    Oct 18, 2010
    Eli has more rings than our QB.
     
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    932
    655
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    Right, and I designated him as such in this thread by putting him in the group of average QBs who have won five of the past 25 Super Bowls, rather than in the group of Hall of Famers. I agree with you that he's an average QB and has no business in the HoF, despite the Super Bowl wins.

    But if the point you're making is that Hall of Fame designation isn't a valid indication of quarterbacks' individual ability, we're going to have to analyze the QBs who are already in the HoF and show why they shouldn't be there. We can't say HoF induction isn't a valid indication of QBs' individual ability on the basis of one guy who isn't even in the HoF and may never be.
     
    mooseguts likes this.
  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    12,866
    6,978
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    The point I'm making is that being in the Hall does not automatically mean that you had great individual ability.
     
  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    932
    655
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    I understand the point, but you’re not basing that on any quarterback in the Hall of Fame from the sample we’re talking about.

    Which HoF quarterback(s) from the sample we’re talking about did not have a great individual ability? If you can identify no one, then it becomes very difficult to say that Hall of Fame induction isn’t a valid indication of quarterbacks’ individual ability.
     
  12. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    12,866
    6,978
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    LOL
    Do you even read what you write? You have a sample you made and based only on your sample, you make a conclusion? And the further declare that the conclusion based only on the sample is irrefutable evidence?
     
    danmarino likes this.
  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    12,866
    6,978
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    It doesn't matter to you that 5/14 are .43 or lower? Three of them are .39 or lower? That's 5/14 QBs who are .45 away from average?
     
    danmarino likes this.
  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    932
    655
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    I'm saying the Hall of Fame quarterbacks in the sample we're talking about had great individual ability by virtue of the fact that they were inducted into the Hall of Fame. That is a point (they have great individual ability) that is supported by some kind of evidence (the Hall of Fame voters believed they should be inducted).

    You on the other hand are making a point that the Hall of Fame isn't a valid indication of quarterbacks' individual ability, and basing that on no kind of evidence. You won't even propose a quarterback from the sample whom you believe doesn't have great individual ability.
     
    mooseguts likes this.
  15. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    6,942
    7,912
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Depends on the context. I guess if we're talking about who I personally would prefer to see in the Hall of Fame then yeah I agree that the bar should be set higher because the lowest there puts you at around top 36% or top 12 in the league and that's not that impressive IMO. And if we ignore SB wins, should one really put Terry Bradshaw or Elway (who won only at the end of his career when he had a great running game) in the same category as guys like Young and Marino? I wouldn't.

    I think that if HoF voting was based more on stats adjusted for era, then we'd see a slightly different group. Baseball MVP voting has definitely changed after they introduced WAR (wins above replacement). Mike Trout is one of the best ever but he's on a mediocre team and it's hard to imagine him being MVP or so high in MVP voting each year without a stat like WAR.

    However, if the context is whether "HoF QB" is statistically speaking different than "non-HoF QB" then a good number being only in the top 12 or top 10 rather than top 6 or so is of no concern. Any statistical test (that applies) will show these are two different categories of QB's.
     
    danmarino, resnor and The Guy like this.
  16. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    6,942
    7,912
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    There's a caveat to this statement. You're right that that's what those correlations suggest among stats we have!

    We don't have a good stat for OL play so while your interpretation is correct given the stats we have available, it's too strong a statement in general because there isn't a good OL stat, and maybe with a good OL stat you'd see that it's the OL that matters more.
     
    Hiruma78, Irishman and The Guy like this.
  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    932
    655
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    And if you adjusted for whatever (likely minuscule) invalidity there is in HoF induction's being an indication of QBs' individual ability, that difference between the two groups would still remain and be very large.

    So putting this degree a microscope on whether HoF induction is a valid indication of QBs' individual ability is really senseless. It's not like we're going to determine that HoF induction is such a highly invalid indication of QBs' individual ability that suddenly HoF QBs become equivalent to non-HoF QBs in individual ability. My lord.
     
    mooseguts likes this.
  18. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

    271
    307
    63
    Jan 12, 2018
    I personally like the stat ESPN has. It judges which OL gives their QB at least 2.5 seconds before surrendering a pressure or sack. If they block for at least 2.5 seconds its considered a "win".

     
    KeyFin, cbrad and The Guy like this.
  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    932
    655
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    I think if we also had a statistic that measured quarterbacks’ awareness and evasion of pressure, that one would be a moderator between the offensive line statistic and sacks. We are also missing that quarterback statistic.
     
    cbrad likes this.
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    932
    655
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    And 2.5 seconds is not an arbitrary period of time, because it is the average time after the snap when pressure occurs in the NFL.
     
    Pauly and mooseguts like this.
  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    932
    655
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    Not much we can conclude about the following relationship given the small sample size, but here are the current season passer ratings that correspond to the teams listed above:

    1. 94.9
    2. 92.8
    3. 99.1
    4. 73.5
    5. 96.7
    6. 90.7
    7. 102.9
    8. 86.6
    9. 105.3
    10. 99.0

    The average passer rating above is 94.2. The league average right now is 91.2, so thus far this season, having a top-10 offensive line in the league in terms of pass block win rate is associated with three more passer rating points on average.
     
    mooseguts likes this.
  22. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

    271
    307
    63
    Jan 12, 2018
    But if Brady was with the Lions and had the same kind of career minus the SB's he would still be 2nd all time in TD's soon to be 1st, 2nd all time in yards with potential to be 1st, 4th all time in passer rating, 2nd lowest INT% of all time.

    Accolades would include 14 time pro bowler (tied most all time), 3 time 1st team all pro (tied 2nd most all time), 2 time 2nd team all pro, 3 time MVP (tied 2nd most all time), 2 time offensive player of the year.

    If that doesn't get you in the door for GOAT discussion than I don't know what will.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  23. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,034
    2,832
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Logically the bottom 22 teams must have a lower passer rating than average.
    Just to make some assumptions from this
    - assume that the relationship between OL win% and passer rating is linear (not exponential) which is true for most NFL correlations. That way roughly 1/3 of teams will have good OLs, 1/3 average OLs and 1/3 “poor”.
    - assume that the relationship is generally true year to year.

    Having a “good” pass blocking OL is worth about +1 wins per year
    Having a “poor” pass blocking OL is worth about -1 wins per year.

    Obviously more number crunching is needed to put proper numbers to the relationship. Maybe the difference is bigger if we can correctly identify “elite” and “horrible” OLs, but that is speculation.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    12,866
    6,978
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Volume stats should get you in the Hall? The only reason Brady has so many is because he's played so much longer than most QBs. Not because he's fine impressive things that others couldn't do.
     
  25. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,521
    10,312
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    Being in the discussion for GOAT means that you were better than your peers during the time you played. It means doing what others are not and have not done. It means being a level above the players during your time.

    Graham
    Unitas
    Stabauch
    Marino
    Manning


    All changed the game. (Among others). Brady has done nothing better than the other great players during his era. IF/When he gets the all time TD record, he would have needed how many more games and attempts? Pro bowls nowadays are popularity contests and mean little. All-pros are great, but if he had not of been playing for the Pats I seriously doubt he gets those. I mean, Brees has been putting up better numbers...How many All pros does he have? (1) How many league MVP's? (0)

    Brady is who he is because of the BB, Ernie Adams, and (proven) cheating. Does anyone believe that Brees or Rodgers or Favre or Marino or Montana or Manning or a number of other QB's could not have been drafted by the Pats in 2000 and not had the same or better career than Brady? Now, if Brady had been drafted by the Colts, Dolphins, Saints, etc etc....How much does his career suffer?
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  26. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,521
    10,312
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    Griese is another QB in the HoF due to Super Bowls and team accomplishments.
     
  27. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

    271
    307
    63
    Jan 12, 2018
    You name me one player who is top 3 in stats whether it be rushing stats, receiving stats, passing stats, sacks and isn't in the HOF.

    You realize Brady had 456 TDs in 235 games and 137 less pass attempts than it took Marino to get 420 TDs in 240 games.
    Brady had 517 TDs in 267 games and 793 less pass attempts than it took Favre to get 508 TDs in 298 games. Jesus man lets not act like he's Vinny Testaverde.
     
    Pauly likes this.
  28. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

    271
    307
    63
    Jan 12, 2018
    Your premise was that outside of SB's Brady has the same stats and career so you can't than try to negate his 3 All Pro's and 3 MVP awards since based on your premise he would still have those accomplishments.

    I don't see how Manning has changed the game but Brady hasn't they are essentially 1A and 1B as far as best QB's in this era.

    I mean I could easily say Dan Marino is who he is because of Don Shula and the freedom he gave him to air it out and the solid offensive cast he had. If Marino was drafted by the Cardinals how much does his career suffer? A lot of his legacy is built on owning the record books but how much of the record books would he own while playing on the Cardinals? Would Drew Brees be putting up those insane numbers if he stayed with the Chargers and didn't hook up with Sean Payton? Probably not. Would Roger Staubach be able to change the game if he went to the dumpster fire that was the Saints in the 70's? Obviously Brady doesn't win 6 SB's without the Pats but the Pats also don't win 6 SB's without Brady.
     
    Hooligan and Sceeto like this.
  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    932
    655
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    What's also noteworthy about that pass blocking statistic is that seven of the top 10 teams in passer rating at the present time do not have offensive lines that are in the top 10 in pass blocking win rate.

    Seattle for example is leading the league right now with an astronomical passer rating of 124.7, yet their offensive line is not in the top 10 in that statistic. The Chiefs are second in the league with a current passer rating of 110.9; also not in the top 10 in pass blocking win rate.

    How are those teams managing to pass the ball so well, without also having one of the best offensive lines in the league in terms of pass blocking? You think it might have anything to do with the individual ability of their quarterbacks (Wilson and Mahomes)?
     
  30. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,034
    2,832
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    My speculation should be taken with a train load of salt as it’s extrapolating far beyond what is safe with the data we have. However it does seem safe to say that base line QB performance is independent of OL, but that OL can modify QB up or down somewhat.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  31. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    1,163
    986
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    I think the issue is that not every QB reacts to the same situations the same way. Also I think the time before pressure stat is irrelevant because it doesnt define the pressure.

    There is a major difference between one end pushing the QB up in the pocket where he can make a throw and three guys all mugging him even at 2.5 seconds.
     
  32. JPPT1974

    JPPT1974 November to Remember

    365
    67
    28
    Apr 15, 2012
    Titans Mariota era seems to have ended!
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    932
    655
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    For the pressure statistic to be completely irrelevant to passer rating in the way you've described it, the teams that surrender the smallest percentages of pressure before 2.5 seconds would have to be the same teams that surrender the greatest percentages of the other kinds of pressure you mentioned, i.e., "three guys all mugging the QB at 2.5 seconds."

    Do you think it's likely that teams that are better than other teams at keeping the pocket clean for at least 2.5 seconds are also the teams that are worse than other teams at allowing such "jailbreak" pressure? Do you think it's likely that a team's offensive line would be very good at pass blocking in one way that reflects its ability, and at the same time very bad at pass blocking in another way that also reflects its ability?
     
  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    932
    655
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    Brady has won six of the past 18 Super Bowls in the NFL.

    If you put every quarterback who's started a game in the league in the past 18 years in a hat and pulled 18 of those quarterbacks out of the hat at random, do you have any idea how many times you'd have to repeat that process before six of the 18 were the same guy? And that isn't something the other great players of his era haven't done?

    That's something no one in history has done!

    Now if you want to attribute that entirely to Brady's surroundings, then we can just agree to disagree about that, because neither of us has a sample of play in which Brady hasn't played in his surroundings.
     
  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    12,866
    6,978
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    It's a different league. No I don't view his volume stats as that impressive. If you play twice as long as most QBs you'll have more yards. Lol
     
    Irishman likes this.
  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    12,866
    6,978
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    No. The PATRIOTS have won 6/18.
     
    Dol-Fan Dupree likes this.
  37. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    932
    655
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    And 20 of the past 25 have been won by teams with Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks, 14 of which were neither Brady nor the Patriots.

    What that indicates is that quarterbacks' ability is extremely important in winning a Super Bowl in this era.

    If Super Bowls were won more frequently by average quarterbacks, you could make the argument that Brady is being propped up by his surroundings, and the "Patriots" are responsible for elevating his play to that level.

    But Super Bowls are rarely won by average quarterbacks, and Brady has won six of the past 18. That should easily tell you Brady is exceptional.
     
  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    932
    655
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    How do you regard the fact that he has the sixth-highest era-adjusted passer rating of all time in the league, behind only Steve Young, Joe Montana, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Kurt Warner.
     
  39. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

    271
    307
    63
    Jan 12, 2018
    Well you couldn't be more wrong since Brett Favre has more starts than any other QB in NFL history and he's 4th in career yards despite having played almost 30 more games than the QB with the 2nd most starts.
     
  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    12,866
    6,978
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Tell me I'm wrong, then use a guy as an example who's not impressive for his volume stats because of the length of his career.
     

Share This Page