Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill has always been a viable starting NFL QB. Should be of no surprise what a well rounded team can do in elevating individual performances.

Per @SharpFootball, the #Titans lead the NFL in BOTH explosive pass rate AND explosive run rate since Tannehill took over in Week 7.

Per @PFF, Tannehill vs Jax when blitzed: 8-of-8, 187 yards, 2 TDs, no ints., QB rating of 158.3 (highest possible).

@glennonsports
The last time #Titans/Oilers dropped 28 points in a quarter? It was Oct. 6, 1991, vs. Broncos.

@glennonsports
3 rushing TDs by #Titans' Tannehill this season is a career high for him -- in just 5 starts.

@glennonsports
#Titans' Tannehill currently has a QB rating of 155.8, not far from perfect, which is 158.3.
--He's 14-of-18 for 259 yds and 2 TD passes, also 2 TD rushes.

@glennonsports
How #Titans' Tannehill ranks among starting NFL QBs:
- QB rating of 111.4 (3rd)
- Completion percentage of 72.1% (2nd)
- Yards per completion avg. of 9.2 (1st)
- Pctg. of throws for 1st-down is 44.2% (1st)

Per Gil Brandt
“I'm happy for Ryan Tannehill and the success he has found in Tennessee, where he is 4-1 as a starter. He also has the NFL's highest QB rating as a starter this season”
Ryan Tannehill 114.9
Kirk Cousins 114.8
Russell Wilson 112.1
Patrick Mahomes 110.0
Drew Brees 106.6

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28157571/barnwell-2019-all-underrated-team-picking-24-nfl-players-tannehill-judon

Since Tannehill took over, the Titans rank sixth in the league with 2.43 points per drive and second behind the Ravens in offensive points scored per game at 28.2. Derrick Henry unquestionably plays a huge role in making that happen, but Tannehill is playing the best football of his career. As Tennessee's starter, he ranks fifth over the past six weeks in passer rating at 114.9. He also has chipped in by turning his 23 carries into three touchdowns and eight first downs, with the latter figure tied for fifth among quarterbacks over that time frame.

Even beyond the numbers, though, Tannehill looks incredibly comfortable throwing the football. Look at his highlights from Sunday and you'll see a quarterback who is not just finding the right receiver but hitting them in stride. There's noticeable zip on his passes. He looks confident under pressure and is using his athleticism to create opportunities as opposed to mindlessly extending plays without ever getting his eyes back upfield. He looks like the quarterback the Titans were hoping Mariota would turn into after all these years.

"Phins_to_Win wrote:

Honestly I think he earned that on his gutsy 2 pt conversion. Before that his teammates, hell, even his coaches were a little standoffish of him. Mariota was a popular guy in the locker room by all reports. What he has done in Tennessee, is nothing short of amazing. It has only been 5 games, but, if you have been watching, he isn't someone that's getting lucky on 50/50 balls, or playing not to lose. They guy is straight up running a offense like a champ. I always believed he was accurate, but the windows he is firing that ball into right now, and doing it without hesitation... just WOW.

This week will be interesting, Titan fans seem to view Indy at Indy as their Achilles heel. The Titans offensive line doesn't get a lot of credit for being good at pass protection, but from what I can tell, they are at least pretty consistent. They connect with the blocks and usually get beat by second moves and stunts, but it usually buys the 2 seconds needed to complete the play. I'm no offensive line expert, I don't know if its the running game thats preventing the defense from making a stouter effort to get past their guy, or if their linemen are just doing a better job of initially engaging the defender, but it makes the whole process seem more predictable and Tannehill is able to do a better job of using his internal clock.

Watching them play I can't help but get the feeling that our team was missing some basic fundamentals that would have helped out Tannehill a lot here.

Just to expand a little on your comment that I’ve bolded.

i believe there is something about Tannehill’s personality that doesn’t fit the coach’s stereotype of what a QB’s demeanor should be. Going back to high school, he was unrecruited, and was a walk-on at A&M. At A&M his coaches let him play WR when he objectively played better than the QBs above him on the depth chart. In the NFL there have been constant whispers that the coaching staff either didn’t support him (Philbin, Lazor) or were overprotective of him (Gase). When he became available for trade no one in the NFL actively pursued him, when much worse QBs, for example Brock Osweiler, generated bidding wars. When it came for Vrabel tonstart him there was no publuc endorsement of him, more a shrug of the shoulders and “well he can’t be worse than Mariota”.

Yet when you measure his level of play it exceeds his coach’s expectations. To me that sounds like non-relevant information being used to downgrade his performance expectations.

The dolphin players including RT have had poor coaching over the last 7 years it was so bad that some thought that the guy that took over from Phibin was actually good, I think his name was Campbell, a TE coach, a complete moron.

"Pauly wrote:

Just to expand a little on your comment that I’ve bolded.

i believe there is something about Tannehill’s personality that doesn’t fit the coach’s stereotype of what a QB’s demeanor should be. Going back to high school, he was unrecruited, and was a walk-on at A&M. At A&M his coaches let him play WR when he objectively played better than the QBs above him on the depth chart. In the NFL there have been constant whispers that the coaching staff either didn’t support him (Philbin, Lazor) or were overprotective of him (Gase). When he became available for trade no one in the NFL actively pursued him, when much worse QBs, for example Brock Osweiler, generated bidding wars. When it came for Vrabel tonstart him there was no publuc endorsement of him, more a shrug of the shoulders and “well he can’t be worse than Mariota”.

Yet when you measure his level of play it exceeds his coach’s expectations. To me that sounds like non-relevant information being used to downgrade his performance expectations.

I don't recall if it were Matt Waldman, or another scout, but one of them stated that one of the issues with Tannehill's personality was that he was "too coachable", meaning he was too willing to please and try to do things perfectly as his coaches dictated, instead of being more instinctive. Going to a stringent coach like Philbin, with his pass every down mentality was the worst thing for him.

I remember watching him as a rookie, on his own, roll out of pocket and make a play, only too look at the sidelines where Philbin would be scolding him. Go rewatch the Seahawk's game from his rookie season where he lead a win over Wilson and the Seahawks, then contrast that to the rest of the season's under Philbin, where you'd him pausing in the pocket or obviously overthinking, instead of just playing, and getting absolutely crushed behind the garbage OLs.

That too coachable issue stuck with him the entire time he was here. IMO, the best and happiest he was here, was during Dan Cambell's brief tenure where Miami was running the ball with authority and using him in PA. If you're watching what Tennessee is doing, it's almost identical. Tannehill is the complimentary pierce behind the run game and he's not being asked to drop back and pass 35+ times a game. They're just asking him to be himself, take off if there's yards to be had, and working with him instead of against him. Finally being healty and having an OL that isn't giving up pressure from multiple spots is also helping immensely.

As for Vrable, he backed his incombent in public. That's what coaches do, but it was clear to everyone going back into OTA's that Tannehill was the better QB and the owner and FO wanted Mariota to get a final shot thru the first qtr of the season to secure the starting role.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001056814/article/vrabel-didnt-consider-replacing-mariota-with-tannehill

Regardless, Mariota put up 7 pts in 10 qtrs and they'd seen enough by the Broncos game. Tannehill most likely is their starter there next year as well and possibly the next couple seasons. Most all QBs are system QBs. He's in an ideal one for him there. IIWII...

Hey guys, what are we talking about?

"Fin D wrote:

Hey guys, what are we talking about?

Tannehill. Same as every year. Doesn't matter what team he's on there are more posts about him than any other single player or coach on this team. I'd even predict that will continue to be the case next year and the year after that.

Relax and enjoy.

Or.. we could talk about shoes!

"cbrad wrote:

Tannehill. Same as every year. Doesn't matter what team he's on there are more posts about him than any other single player or coach on this team. I'd even predict that will continue to be the case next year and the year after that.

Relax and enjoy.

Or.. we could talk about shoes!

it’s the same with every QB. Fiedler... culpepper...Henne...lol

"cbrad wrote:

Tannehill. Same as every year. Doesn't matter what team he's on there are more posts about him than any other single player or coach on this team. I'd even predict that will continue to be the case next year and the year after that.

Relax and enjoy.

Or.. we could talk about shoes!

Tanne-who? Never heard of him.

"cbrad wrote:

Tannehill. Same as every year. Doesn't matter what team he's on there are more posts about him than any other single player or coach on this team. I'd even predict that will continue to be the case next year and the year after that.

Relax and enjoy.

Or.. we could talk about shoes!

Hey, my question about collectible shoes got more replies than last Sunday's gameday thread! I think this week I'll ask about knitting or folk art...haven't decided yet.

"KeyFin wrote:

Hey, my question about collectible shoes got more replies than last Sunday's gameday thread! I think this week I'll ask about knitting or folk art...haven't decided yet.

Where's the face palm icon when I really need it!

"Fin D wrote:

Tanne-who? Never heard of him.

I think its Bryan Tanninghall.

"KeyFin wrote:

Hey, my question about collectible shoes got more replies than last Sunday's gameday thread! I think this week I'll ask about knitting or folk art...haven't decided yet.

Collecting Tannehill's shoes may be taking things a bit far... :shifty:

"KeyFin wrote:

Hey, my question about collectible shoes got more replies than last Sunday's gameday thread! I think this week I'll ask about knitting or folk art...haven't decided yet.

Just counted to see if that's true (you know I had to do that).

Turns out including your own replies there are 30 posts on shoes while there were 40 posts during the game in last week's game thread and 59 overall (naturally we can change these stats lol). So you're going to have to up your game next time!

btw.. because I had plantar fasciitis I needed extremely comfortable walking shoes, at least until the pain went away. And after trying practically everything out I settled on Mephisto walking shoes which were over $350. Very good quality. I don't wear them regularly anymore because I don't have plantar fasciitis anymore, but those shoes really helped a ton. So in some cases I think very high priced shoes are totally worth it. Anyway, that makes it 31 posts on shoes now.

Sometimes you just gotta tip your hat when a person succeeds at their second chance. He was not a good football player in the dolphins, he looks like a good football player on the Titans. It is what it is, ive seen him fail more times than succeed here.

and his best weapon there is derrick henry... his receivers are decent, i think he had better groups of receivers here.

its just one of those things where players have their back against the wall and they finally let their talent show or they crumble. Tannehill saw this as his last shot and said screw it im going all out

"Vertical Limit wrote:

Sometimes you just gotta tip your hat when a person succeeds at their second chance. He was not a good football player in the dolphins, he looks like a good football player on the Titans. It is what it is, ive seen him fail more times than succeed here.

and his best weapon there is derrick henry... his receivers are decent, i think he had better groups of receivers here.

its just one of those things where players have their back against the wall and they finally let their talent show or they crumble. Tannehill saw this as his last shot and said screw it im going all out

He was a good football player here though.

It'll be a good while before anything definitive can be concluded regarding Tannehill.

There have been a number of quarterbacks in recent history who have appeared to play at an elite level for a period of time, only to have their performance vary to the degree that it remains questionable how good they are: Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky, Jared Goff, etc.

Mayfield in particular is instructive. His average passer rating during the second half of last season (eight games) was 109.7. This year through 11 games his overall passer rating is 80.5.

Andy Dalton is also instructive. In 2015 his season passer rating was 106.2. His career passer rating is 88, including 79.2 in eight games this season.

It takes several seasons of elevated performance to establish oneself as one of the quarterbacks whose performance varies from season to season at a level significantly higher than that of the average QB, which is the true definition of an above-average QB.

Just because some people believe the Dolphins' surroundings were holding Tannehill back doesn't mean the period of time needed to prove that definitively can be shortened. The theory doesn't determine the methodology.

I can't unsee the Titans logo now as a big Flaming T for Tannehill.

"The Guy wrote:

It'll be a good while before anything definitive can be concluded regarding Tannehill.

There have been a number of quarterbacks in recent history who have appeared to play at an elite level for a period of time, only to have their performance vary to the degree that it remains questionable how good they are: Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky, Jared Goff, etc.

Mayfield in particular is instructive. His average passer rating during the second half of last season (eight games) was 109.7. This year through 11 games his overall passer rating is 80.5.

Andy Dalton is also instructive. In 2015 his season passer rating was 106.2. His career passer rating is 88, including 79.2 in eight games this season.

It takes several seasons of elevated performance to establish oneself as one of the quarterbacks whose performance varies from season to season at a level significantly higher than that of the average QB, which is the true definition of an above-average QB.

Just because some people believe the Dolphins' surroundings were holding Tannehill back doesn't mean the period of time needed to prove that definitively can be shortened. The theory doesn't determine the methodology.

You're looking at it as the QB varying though. If you look at those numbers as what a QB is capable of with the proper surroundings they are no longer anomalies to begin with.

Your methodology is very sound but it isnt the only way to look at the numbers.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

You're looking at it as the QB varying though. If you look at those numbers as what a QB is capable of with the proper surroundings they are no longer anomalies to begin with.

Your methodology is very sound but it isnt the only way to look at the numbers.

The issue is that surroundings also vary, from year to year and from team to team, and the QBs with the best individual ability perform from year to year at a level significantly higher than the others, despite that variation in surroundings. We need several years of play to determine whether that's occurring for any single QB.

Without that, you have potentially the situation Andy Dalton experienced in 2015, when his passer rating was 106.2, roughly 18 points above his career level, presumably because he experienced such uncommonly good surroundings that they aren't likely to be replicated.

In other words, you can't make a dispositional attribution (i.e., the QB has significantly better individual ability) when you have only the data necessary to permit a situational attribution (i.e., the QB benefited from a single season of exceptionally good surroundings).

It's strange.

Some of us, have been saying for literally years, that Thill needed a handful of things from the team/coaches to be Top 10.
We were called stupid, wrong, Kool -Aid drinkers, etc.

Every time he gets those things from teammates and coaches, (even the few times here) he's played at a Top 10 level.

But we're still told, he was a poor player or people are shocked about how he's playing now.

"The Guy wrote:

It'll be a good while before anything definitive can be concluded regarding Tannehill.

There have been a number of quarterbacks in recent history who have appeared to play at an elite level for a period of time, only to have their performance vary to the degree that it remains questionable how good they are: Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky, Jared Goff, etc.

It takes several seasons of elevated performance to establish oneself as one of the quarterbacks whose performance varies from season to season at a level significantly higher than that of the average QB, which is the true definition of an above-average QB.

You can do statistical tests to see if performance in just one year is indicative of something too unlikely to come from a QB that has average stats over multiple years. Just do the same tests I was suggesting except adjust the p-value for multiple comparisons. That is, it's common practice in most applications of statistics (not all of course) to say that anything less than 5% likely to occur is "statistically significant".

But if you have multiple comparisons – asking whether a result is statistically significant if you had multiple years of stats (even if you don't yet have those stats) – you simply adjust that p-value of 5% to account for that, with the most common adjustment being the Bonferroni correction which just divides the p-value by the number of comparisons.

So let's say you want a QB to perform above average for N years before you say he is "above average". The Bonferroni correction would then adjust the p-value to 0.05/N. So if N=4 years then you get a p-value of 0.05/4 = 1.25% instead of 5%. So you actually can look at a single year of stats and say those results are too unlikely to come from an average QB even if you gave that QB N years to do it.

"Fin D wrote:

Some of us, have been saying for literally years, that Thill needed a handful of things from the team/coaches to be Top 10.
We were called stupid, wrong, Kool -Aid drinkers, etc.

But we're still told, he was a poor player or people are shocked about how he's playing now.

If Tannehill's year end stats are statistically significant (i.e., they are statistically unlikely to be due to random variation alone given his stats in Miami), then that will definitively prove that in the right surroundings he can be a top level QB. In other words you'd have the statistical evidence to support what you were claiming.

However..

"Fin D wrote:

Every time he gets those things from teammates and coaches, (even the few times here) he's played at a Top 10 level.

The evidence is not there for this claim. Once the proper comparisons are made, Tannehill's stats in those cherry picked situations where he supposedly was playing at "top 10 level" are fully explainable by random variation alone. For example, Tannehill's "best 8 game stretch" in 2016 was ranked #12 compared to all other QB's "best 8 game stretches", just as his year-end ratings were.

"cbrad wrote:

If Tannehill's year end stats are statistically significant (i.e., they are statistically unlikely to be due to random variation alone given his stats in Miami), then that will definitively prove that in the right surroundings he can be a top level QB. In other words you'd have the statistical evidence to support what you were claiming.

However..

The evidence is not there for this claim. Once the proper comparisons are made, Tannehill's stats in those cherry picked situations where he supposedly was playing at "top 10 level" are fully explainable by random variation alone. For example, Tannehill's "best 8 game stretch" in 2016 was ranked #12 compared to all other QB's "best 8 game stretches", just as his year-end ratings were.

Right because you’re deciding what Top 10 means.

You can make Top 10 mean numerous different things from Top 10 all time, Top 10 in a certain era, Top 10 versus every other QBs best same game stretch, Top 10 versus every other QBs best same game stretch that year (your particular take) or Top 10 during the stretch, which is my and most other people’s take when we say it.

That’s the issue with being entirely and singularly stat focused.

"cbrad wrote:

Just counted to see if that's true (you know I had to do that).

Turns out including your own replies there are 30 posts on shoes while there were 40 posts during the game in last week's game thread and 59 overall (naturally we can change these stats lol). So you're going to have to up your game next time!

btw.. because I had plantar fasciitis I needed extremely comfortable walking shoes, at least until the pain went away. And after trying practically everything out I settled on Mephisto walking shoes which were over $350. Very good quality. I don't wear them regularly anymore because I don't have plantar fasciitis anymore, but those shoes really helped a ton. So in some cases I think very high priced shoes are totally worth it. Anyway, that makes it 31 posts on shoes now.

I didn't count them earlier and believe it or not, once I posted that in fun, I thought to myself...will cBrad go count the posts? I figured it would be close anyway and I was sort of right. =)

Happy Thanksgiving brother! I hope you have an awesome weekend!