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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Signed the tender today...31 I believe but negotiations will continue. Seriously doubt he gets that kind of a deal but ya never know.
     
  2. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah the 31 is a one year deal... When they offered him 34 over a year ago it was a long term contract. He turned it down and stated it was disrespectful I believe was the term he used...
     
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  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And you think that because you're incapable of grasping the deficiencies in your own arguments, and when they're pointed out to you (and resnor) you don't respond.

    The irony here is that the two people (myself and cbrad) who are approaching this with any scientific rigor are leaving open the possibility that Tannehill could in fact be the equivalent of Drew Brees (with more data), whereas the people who are claiming I'm "playing games" have foreclosed on the idea that the data already obtained mean something they don't, and Tannehill is already something he can't be supported objectively to be.

    You all are the ones out of line here, not me. You all are the ones who aren't yielding as you should to objective information.
     
  4. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    You're looking at it from an entirely different perspective though than they are with different priorities.

    A person who predicted this level of performance in a better situation isnt going to care about the past nearly as much as someone using it as their entire argument.

    Also you're heavily leaning on the idea that statistics are accurate and reflect reality in football. Others are leaning on the idea that while statistics can be useful, therevis no way to meaningfully extrapolate the talent of a QB alone from them.

    Obviously regardless of what statistics you bring to the table, it really isnt going to matter to someone who believes they are a result of a TEAM and not the individual.

    This isnt to say you're right or wrong. My point is that of course the data isnt going to mean the same thing to people who interpret its inherent value differently.

    That everyone cant just see this is two separate ways of looking at things is concerning.

    You cant deny your bias any more than they can.

    Over the entire thread I've barely seen you mention or look for any statistic that paints Tannehill in a positive light to weigh against your negatives. That is a bias.

    By the same token others want to dismiss any potential negative.

    This whole thread has just become stupid.
     
  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The problem here is that there are several people who touted his passer rating during his 11 games in 2019 as evidence that he, as you said, had "this level of performance in a better situation."

    Now, however, when it's pointed out that the following quarterbacks...

    Nick Foles
    Chris Chandler
    Jim Harbaugh
    Wade Wilson
    Mark Rypien
    Drew Bledsoe
    Vinny Testaverde
    Steve DeBerg
    Tommy Kramer

    ...did just as well statistically as Tannehill over 11 consecutive games in what was presumably "a better situation" for them, now statistics are meaningless and we need the matter to rest on some other source of evidence.

    You can't have it both ways. Either the 11 games mean something statistically or they don't. They don't mean something until you find out that Tannehill can't be distinguished from the above QBs, at which time you shift to something other than statistics to support your position.

    What should be happening now is an acceptance of the fact that 11 consecutive games can't distinguish QBs from each other. That's what the objective information shows, and that's what people should yield to. The criterion people are using here isn't meaningful.

    If you're so sure the guy is great, then just say "yeah, the 11 games can't distinguish him, but just wait until next year." That's a perfectly acceptable response. What isn't an acceptable response is to try to extract greater meaning from the 11 games than is warranted.
     
  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Wrong.

    I'm the one who asked cbrad to investigate whether 11 consecutive games like the ones Tannehill played in 2019 distinguish great QBs from average ones.

    His investigation could've easily shown that 11 consecutive games could do such a thing, and then I would've been put in the position of acknowledging that the criterion people are using here could in fact distinguish Tannehill from an average QB.

    Notice nobody else asked for that investigation prior to my doing it. Everybody proceeded along here for thousands of posts, believing his 11 games did such a thing when they really didn't.

    That's a bias, when you don't even consider the most relevant information!
     
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You don't seem to get it that what distinguishes great QBs from average ones is that the great ones vary at a higher level of play over many seasons.

    When 11 games of the kind Tannehill played in 2019 don't distinguish him sufficiently from the likes of Jim Harbaugh, we can hardly say Tannehill has definitively become anything different than he was prior to those 11 games.

    The data just aren't there.

    Now, whether his performance is sustainable is another matter, and no one can determine that with any certainty right now. What I've merely done here is explore whether there were unusual situational factors at play that may have an impact on the sustainability of his performance (such as the fact that his passing volume was extremely low).

    Many of you all are so hellbent on using these 11 games to confirm something you already believed that you're incapable of putting yourself in the position (hypothetically) of having to bet something of value on whether Tannehill's performance will be sustained. If you were in that position, you'd be wise to conduct the kinds of analyses I've done here, of situational variables and possible situational advantages that may not be sustainable.

    I suspect that any fan of another team who was looking at this thread objectively would see a bunch of folks who so want to be "right" about what they thought about Tannehill that they're incapable of considering 1) the limitations of the data involved (11 games), and 2) possible situational advantages that may be difficult to sustain.

    Essentially the Tannehill advocates here are flailing about, unable to look at the matter objectively.
     
  8. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Guy

    You do not seem to get it that you have been called out for changing your argument. First you said that he was garbage or some version of that for years on multiple forums... Arguing to the point where you got banned (As has been pointed out by others on here. )

    ... Now that he showed he can play at an elite level you say it does not count yet because he has not done it for half a decade. Instead of just admitting you were wrong in evaluating Tannehill. This is the definition of moving the goal posts.

    At least CBrad manned up and said.. You know what?: "Tannehill surpassed my expectations of him. "
     
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And what does that mean when the following quarterbacks also played at an elite level for 11 consecutive games?

    Nick Foles
    Chris Chandler
    Jim Harbaugh
    Wade Wilson
    Mark Rypien
    Drew Bledsoe
    Vinny Testaverde
    Steve DeBerg
    Tommy Kramer

    What exactly am I supposed to be admitting? That to date he's no different from those guys?

    That's the only thing the current data will allow one to "admit," dude.

    You don't seem to understand that you shouldn't be asking me to admit anything more than that. Nor should you be concluding anything more than that.
     
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  10. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Where do you want to plant the goal posts Guy?

    Pick a spot
    Stick with it

    Otherwise you are just trolling.
     
  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Where do you want to plant them? What does his performance in 2019 mean to you? That he could play at an elite level for 11 games in "better" surroundings? So what? So did:

    Nick Foles
    Chris Chandler
    Jim Harbaugh
    Wade Wilson
    Mark Rypien
    Drew Bledsoe
    Vinny Testaverde
    Steve DeBerg
    Tommy Kramer

    So what does that "feat" mean to you?
     
  12. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Here is a great exercise

    Guy admit you were wrong
    Stop moving goal posts
    And let's move on
     
  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Wrong about what?
     
  14. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    ask Buffalofinfan

    LMAO
     
  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    My position has always been that Tannehill has no better than average ability, and there's been no disproof of that by anybody here.

    When you want to talk substantively, let me know. Your pattern is to talk substantively until you're pinned in a corner, and then become a smart *** with no substance.
     
  16. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You didn’t see it because you refused to see it. He had no trouble making plays last year.
     
  17. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    wrong. The mistake in Miami was assuming they would fix the supporting cast or that the next coach would be better. The Tannehill evaluation by his supporters was spot on.
     
  18. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    No he really is that ignorant. It is not an act.
     
  19. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I blocked him a couple of weeks ago. Much better.
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    We don't know that yet. Only if Tannehill continues to play at a high level will that be true.

    I've already stated how I'll determine it: if his play in Tennessee is statistically significant relative to Miami after next season. He's got a huge head start with his play in 2019 so he doesn't have to play anywhere near that level in 2020, but if over 2 years his play is not statistically significant, then the evidence will point to the evaluation of Tannehill by his supporters being wrong, while if it is statistically significant then that points to it being right. One season isn't enough to show which is more likely.
     
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  21. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I have to agree with cbrad.

    There’s a lot people who support Tannehill can point to regarding film study.
    There’s a lot of to point to that his coaching staff in Miami (Philbin, Sherman, Lazor, Zac Taylor, Adam Gase) was low quality.
    There’s a lot to point to that former teammates were unable to have higher efficiency when they left to teams with different QBs.

    None of this, however, is proof that Tannehill is a different and better QB than what he showed in Miami. By the same token there is no proof that Tannehill’s success in Tennessee was a one year aberration such as what has occurred several times previously in NFL history.

    The proof will be what he does in 2020 and beyond. Presently we only have opinions as to whether 2019’s success was momentary or permanent.
     
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  22. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You're missing the point. The point is that Tannehill WASN'T a different QB in Miami. He always had the talent. He was just unable to show it surrounded by the **** show.
     
  23. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Agree to disagree.
     
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Finally, a Tannehill adherent who's willing to admit that 11 games don't mean anything either way.

    Yes there is no "proof" that Tannehill's success in Tennessee was a one-year aberration, because "proof" is a strong word, but if you were to go bet on it, the odds you'd get would favor that explanation strongly.

    And there's a reason for that. It's the better explanation at present, despite what anybody here thinks.
     
  25. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Ryan has always displayed the ability to play at around a top 10 level when the running game was featured. He isn't going to put the team on his back and win shootouts, not many Qb's will.

    He is perfect for the Titans and what they want/need. I thought a glaring hole on the team was the lack of a solid #2 WR.....they didn't address that need in the draft but got another OT.

    Titans have the makeup to beat the Chiefs and IMO are one of only 3 teams that can stop them from going back to the SB.
     
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  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The Titans needed 188 yards and 8.2 yards per carry by Derrick Henry, alongside a 133+ passer rating by Tannehill, to squeak out a three-point win against the Chiefs in the regular season.

    How replicable do you think that offensive performance will be, and even if it is, it gives them only a four-point margin of error.

    Contrast that with the playoff game against them last year, where Henry was shut down and the Titans were beaten handily, despite Tannehill's 108+ passer rating.

    When you need a superhuman performance out of your running back to even compete, good luck. What they should have done is invest heavily in the pass defense in the effort to limit Mahomes's performance.
     
  27. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Ok Guy, this is where folks like you and to an extent cbrad look soley at numbers and are not looking at the GAME itself. In your two comparisons of the Chiefs/Titans match-ups last season, you state the Titans were beaten handily in the AFC Championship game. That's not true, that's anything but true. You're looking at nothing but numbers. Handily beaten?

    1Qtr; Kick off to Titans.
    Tenn; 8 plays (3 rushes/5 passes), 58 yards, ToP 3:31, FG Tenn 3 - KC 0
    Kickoff to KC
    KC; 3 plays (1 rush/2 passes/1 sack), 0 yards, ToP 1:30 Punt Tenn 3 - KC 0
    Tenn; 9 plays ( 5 rushes/4 passes/2 Pen on KC), ToP 4:07, TD Tenn 10 - KC 0

    At this point of the game, with 5:52 left in the first quarter, the Titans are handily beating the Chiefs! So let's relax on the hyperbole.

    From here out, the game got interesting with KC scoring a touchdown on their next possession followed by Tennessee answering said touchdown where Tennessee was up on Kansas City 17-7 in the 2nd quarter. Kansas City rallies back scoring 2 more touchdowns in the 2nd quarter to take a 21-17 lead into halftime.

    Good game thus far, no one is handily beating anyone. Tennessee owned the 1st quarter, Kansas City owned the 2nd.

    Kick off for the 3rd quarter becomes a defensive battle, neither team scoring.

    KC 10 play drive for a whopping 37 yards, ToP of 3:59 resulting in a punt
    Tenn 6 play drive for a whopping 21 yards, ToP of 4:03 resulting in a punt
    KC then goes on a 13 play 73 yard drive (9 rushes/3 passes) ToP 7:08 resulting in a touchdown at the beginning of the 4th quarter.

    THAT drive, in which Tennessee's defense could not stop Kansas City's running game is what lost the game for the Titans.
    It wasn't Tannehill's "inability"
    It wasn't Mahomes "super ability"
    It was Williams and Thompson's running and the Titan's inability to stop it on THAT drive that lost the game for Tennessee. Momentum had swung Kansas City's way.

    Tennessee went 4 and out on their next drive and Tennessee wasn't able to stop Kansas City's 7 play 88 yard drive to score yet another touchdown.

    On Tennessee's last scoring drive, Tannehill went 6 of 7 for a total of 80 yards in 3:15, so it's not like Tannehill wasn't able to move the ball downfield.

    Bottom line is you don't look at numbers as you sole factor. You look at each individual game, play by play and who is doing what. Numbers are just an analysis of the totality, they don't tell the entire story.
     
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  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I was speaking only of the margin of victory in comparison to the game earlier that year. In the first game, the Titans won by 3. In the second game, the Chiefs won by 11.
     
  29. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    The issue with you using that data and why it's also biased.

    1) Its an incredibly rare occurence so you cant draw any definitive conclusions based on the available names.

    2) Those QB are all of varying talent levels. You may find them statistically similar but anyone who's watched them play would be able to differentiate between them easily. This is important because it provides context for the claim that the category you're putting him into isnt even a category of talent to begin with.

    3) You're using their 11 game stretches and comparing it to an unknown stretch of games. You have the ability in hindsight to cap off their stretches at 11 games. With Tannehill you're arbitrarily cutting him off there because you have incomplete data. What if he starts off hot the next 3 games? Does that change anything in your comparison, moving it to 14 games instead of 11?

    Anything that can be changed by a small variable changing doesnt hold very much weight.

    4) What others have done historically, especially pre-salary cap era, cant even be compared to today in my opinion. Which makes any player comparison pre-salary cap insignificant. The talent levels of teams varied much greater, so a QB like Aikman on the Cowboys obviously had major advantages over someone drafted by the Bengals.

    I think they are being a bit bias too so I dont mean to rag on you.

    Why cant everyone just admit he had a great season and we dont know 100% what will come next. Especially in a COVID world.
     
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  30. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    The playoff game was far from indicative of the final score. They were lacking any sort of a pass rush and the best Wr on the team was a rookie.

    They are close.
     
  31. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And I'm not. I'm saying precisely that a conclusion can't be made, just like you. It's the pro-Tannehill folks who are making conclusions on the basis of the 11 games, not me.

    Differentiating among quarterbacks on the basis of "watching them play" is hardly valid. What happens when two people "watch them play" and disagree about how good they are? The determination of the category in which these quarterbacks belong was made by their career statistics (adjusted to 2019), which is far more reliable than "watching them play."

    Sure, but that hasn't happened yet and may not, and so the criterion we're left with at this point is an 11-game stretch. We have to make meaning on the basis of that, and based on the historical data, there is no reliable meaning to be made.

    The finding is based on passer ratings adjusted to 2019.

    We are, but so did those QBs listed above. And that means an 11-game stretch doesn't mean anything in terms of a QB's ability. 11-game stretches don't sufficiently distinguish great QBs from average ones.
     
  32. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Okay, that I understand but that's more of a testament to the defense rather than the offense. Kansas City's defense was much more stout than Tennessee's, in both games.
     
  33. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thank you from everyone not named Guy on this board.

    Again he proves he does not watch the games and does not know what happened... He is looking at numbers after the fact trying to use them to support his bias.

    This is one of the best posts I have seen on this board since I have been a member. You just absolutely destroyed him...

    Again thank you.
     
  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Here is the post he responded to:
    What "bias" is at work there?
     
  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    In the post you originally responded to, I said Tennessee should've focused on improving its defense in the offseason. Where exactly are we disagreeing?
     
  36. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    It wasn’t my intent to “destroy” anyone, just merely illustrate that numbers and analysis of stats are merely “A” tool, not “THE” tool to assess players and games.
     
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  37. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    If you’re referring to the latest I replied to with the AFC Championship breakdown, I just scrolled back up and saw nothing in your post referring to Tennessee needing to improve its defense, only Tannehill’s need for Henry and how they were handily defeated.

    If you’re referring to another post, I’m not sure which your referring to
     
  38. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I appreciate that you just meant to debunk his comments with actual talk about the game and the situations. The fact that it blew him out of the water just makes it extra special.
     
  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I didn’t say anything about Tannehill’s need for Henry in that post. I was speaking about the team’s need for Henry to be able to compete with Kansas City.

    You all are starting to get to the point where you’re having knee-jerk responses to my posts. Slow down and do some more nuanced reading.
     
  40. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I didn’t feel I was knee jerking. In all actuality, I felt I was being truly respectful in my last 2 posts to you.

    Now I just scrolled back up and re-read again and you are correct...you said what you said you said. My error.

    As to Tennessee’s defense, if anyone goes back and looks at my posts carefully, they’ll see I was critical of their defense, feeling that was the Titans Achilles heel, particularly their run defense. When Tennessee let their opponents get into 2nd and short consistently, the Titans defense struggled to get off the field. That was the purpose behind the detailed illustration of the one KC drive that sealed the Titans fate in the AFC Championship game.

    As for needing super human performance from Henry, I think that’s a bit of an exaggeration. While Henry is an incredible back, his remarkable season last year was the result of a brilliant offensive scheme, sound textbook run blocking as well as his individual abilities. Many of Henry’s breakaway runs came right up the middle and you don’t get opportunities like that without sound run blocking.

    Because of this, that’s what made Tannehill the most dangerous play action pass quarterback in the league. Tennessee’s brilliant offensive scheme in the run game opened the flood gate for play action pass and anyone who’s ever followed me for the last 13 years on this site knows that’s the strategy I’ve always asserted is the most effective method for moving the ball and controlling the clock...effective running and play action pass.

    This past season, the Titans were the “Perfect Storm” for textbook offensive performance in effectively moving the ball and scoring points.
     
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